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 [quote="Ghost Post"]The real question for SB - based on the rules of this "game," is : Is it Monday or Tuesday? These are the two possibilities she faces upon waking. 1. If it's Monday - the "correct" answer is 1 in 2. 2. If it's Tuesday - the "correct" answer is zero possibility that the toss was heads, i.e. it was definitely tails Depending on the actual day, the "correct" answer changes - but SB having no knowledge of which day it is can only assign a correct probability relative to her perspective - as follows: We have one coin toss with three possible outcomes - 1. it's Monday and the toss is heads 2. it's Monday and the toss is tails 3. it's Tuesday and the toss is tails The correct answer RELATIVE TO SB's PERSPECTIVE is 1 in 3. Apparently it's true - everything is RELATIVE![/quote]
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Ghost Post
Posted: Thu Dec 30, 1999 4:14 pm    Post subject: 1

The real question for SB - based on the rules of this "game," is : Is it Monday or Tuesday? These are the two possibilities she faces upon waking.
1. If it's Monday - the "correct" answer is
1 in 2.
2. If it's Tuesday - the "correct" answer is
zero possibility that the toss was heads,
i.e. it was definitely tails
Depending on the actual day, the "correct" answer changes - but SB having no knowledge of which day it is can only assign a correct probability relative to her perspective - as follows:
We have one coin toss with three possible outcomes -
1. it's Monday and the toss is heads
2. it's Monday and the toss is tails
3. it's Tuesday and the toss is tails
The correct answer RELATIVE TO SB's PERSPECTIVE is 1 in 3.

Apparently it's true - everything is RELATIVE!