The Grey Labyrinth is a collection of puzzles, riddles, mind games, paradoxes and other intellectually challenging diversions. Related topics: puzzle games, logic puzzles, lateral thinking puzzles, philosophy, mind benders, brain teasers, word problems, conundrums, 3d puzzles, spatial reasoning, intelligence tests, mathematical diversions, paradoxes, physics problems, reasoning, math, science.

Griffin · Daedalian Member

I was just wondering what the GLers would choose when it came to the Newcomb problem. I don't think it has ever been discussed before.

My opinion: I'm leaning towards box A only.

Vanyo · Daedalian Member

The problem here is that it seems my action will influence a past event. Let's say the being is 100% accurate. The being predicts what action I will take, and takes some action dependent on that. After making the prediction, if I actually have the freedom to take either action, then it seems I have the freedom to choose which action the being took - a past event.

In a nutshell, the past is dependent on the future. If the future is not yet determined, then the past isn't.

ZenBeam · Daedalian Member

I decided, long ago, to only take the one box. That way, when this happens to me, the being with "superior predictive powers" will have an easier time predicting my actions, and I'll be one of the 90% he'll get correct. I'll say "Thank you very much for the $1,000,000, kind sir!"

Maybe he'll give me the other box too, just for being so polite and not greedy.

Question: Do your choices change with different amounts? For example $10 Billion and $10 million. Even with the lesser amount, you'd be set for life. What about $1,000 and $10? Or even $1,000,000 and $10? How important is that extra $10 to you?

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It is too clear, and so it is hard to see.

IT 3 · Sub-standard Member

there's not enough information to get an expected value, so it doesn't matter

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My heart is broke, but I have some glue.

Griffin · Daedalian Member

"Let's say the being is 100% accurate."

I agree with you Vanyo, but only if the being is 100% accurate, which I don't think is possible even in theory. But the paradox still works at 90% accuracy, or even 51% accuracy. Human behavior is predictable to an extent (for example, when asked to pick a number between 5 and 10, 80% of the time a person will pick 7). So it seems possible that a reasonably good percentage could be achieved.

Zenbeam - I for one would definitely go for both in the $10 Billion - $10 million question (I wouldn't risk $10 mil even for a very high chance of winning $10 billion). For the other two, I suspect that a person who would pick both boxes in the original question would only take one, though I don't know.

HyToFry · Drama queen

I say a 1,000 dollar bet to make 1,000,000 dollars with 90% odds is a hell of a deal. If they had a table like that in vegas, I would be there everyday. [=

James · Daedalian Member

If I was in that situation, I'd realise that the being has made it's decision, so I'd take both boxes, knowing that I'd only get $1000, such is the price of perfect logic.

azu · Guest

i think the argument for choosing both boxes rests on our own perception of time.But in fact this beings abilities negate time as we understand it.so all bets are off,in the words of a the cohen brothers "dont fuck with the Jesus".

wonderer · Guest

I think for the practical consideration of choosing a box (assuming all information like the 90% chance can be trusted), the "prediction" part can be ignored. The problem of which box to choose is essentially the same as if a random event with the appropriate probabilities decided what money went where AFTER you made your choice, and then you recieved your sum (or not). If you picture boxes on a computer screen, and the computer then processes your choice and the probability that you got a particular sum of money, then you recieve the money on a bank account, you will realize this is identical to (though not quite as exciting as) the Newcomb problem, probability-wise. This is because, although you influenced (by chosing one or both boxes) the Newcomb being's decision (where the money goes), his decision does not influence your's, so he might as well have made his decision after you, with an event other than a predictive uncertainty introducing uncertainty. What to do if you ignore the time travel is much easier to decide.
However, if the prediction is based on other people like you making decisions, this arguement may not work, as the Newcomb being is not being influenced by you directly.

RedNifre · Icarian Member

I'm sure that takeing box A only is the best choice. A chance of 90% to win $1'000'000 is better then a chance of 10% to win $1'001'000.