Amb Mafia Game Thread

[ralphmerridew]

Unfortunately, the game was pre-crash, and I can't find back archives. (Though JDTAY ended up getting lynched day one in that game as well.)

[raekuul]

Oh. So, it's lost forever.

Well, so much for that, then.

[ralphmerridew]

Will be away from computer for a few days.

[Quailman]

Since day broke, everyone has posted, but most only once. I'm not counting the seven or so recent posts that discussed a deceased person's role in another mafia game. Only three people are voting.

Vote, people. This is Mafia. We lynch people.

Though I don't see why JDTAY made his unusual claim (someone with that role would vote for him for certain, adding to the likelihood of a lynch), I can sort of see why he backed raekuul's claim. And I can better accept raekuul's claim now that I know there is at least one plain townie.

[raekuul]

I'm going to vote: Zag to try and get a claim.

[Zag]

I will state that I am a townie. (Of course, I would say that if it were true or not, so I don't expect you to believe it on my say so.) I will also state that I am not vanilla, but I'm not going to claim my ability, even if you get me up to L-1. I was going to give some limited information about it, but I realized that that would lead to guessing at it. In order to forestall the obvious, I will NOT answer any questions about it, even ones that are so far off that denying them will not give any real information. (If you only tell people when they are getting cold, and you're silent when they are getting warmer, it's as much as telling them both.)

I feel that there are a number of people who are a lot more suspicious than I, based on voting record. Really, what else do you have to go on? I've made some accusations, based on the only observable facts. If you find those accusations suspicious, well, it probably because they were too close to the mark and you aren't really working for the town.

To Recap everything I've said so far:

.
Day 1
Unlike you others, I believed JDTAY's claim. It didn't seem that farfetched to me.
I found MNO's voting record to be suspicious, because it was. Next in line for suspicious voting records (counting the final hammer) are Amb and raekuul.

Day 2
I speculated as to why the mafia would kill MNO. (I'm assuming that's how he died, but there's always the possibility of a vigilante and the mafia got blocked. I hadn't considered that until now.) From the mafia's point of view, I thought it was a foolish choice, since I believe that he was the most likely to get lynched on day 2. I went on to speculate why they might have realized this, but decided to kill him anyway, and I found it pointed a mild suspicion at Amb. It wouldn't have been enough to convince me if I weren't already suspicious of Amb because of his hammer of JDTAY.

So that's it. If you want to lynch me over lack of claim, i won't try to stop you. That is, I'm not going to claim, no matter what.

[raekuul]

Well, it would be bad of me to not unvote to a claim like that. I see no reason at present to disbelieve the not-claim.

[raekuul]

Why is it that the mafia games on the IWBTG forums go so much faster than the games here?

[Amb]

It's because participation has dropped, and also we have very little info at the moment. It will work like a pressure cooker later.

[Poisonium]

I still don't believe Raekuul. In fact, I believe him so little, that...

Vote: Raekuul
_________________
I tried apt-get install lifebut it only returned E: Couldn't find package life

[sAbLLimINal]

[sAbLLimINal]

[Zag]

Funny you should say that, since you're interpreting my words the wrong way. The bit of mine you are quoting was me saying that the mafia would expect me to be saying this, not that I necessarily would be saying it.

[sAbLLimINal]

[raekuul]

I'd like some action. If we keep stalling, we're going to end up with a deadlined no-lynch.

(*Bird-that-was-there-all-along whispers into his ear*)

And that would be bad.

[Undercover Monk]

ScumNot Amb-O-meter

1. Undercover Monk- got to be honest I have not been on my game this time, and for that I apologize. The only thing of note I have done was lead the secondary push for the JDTAY lynch. So I guess at least a 5/10

2. Zag- Still to early to get a sense of his usual style but his attacks on Amb and his reasoning behind a MNO night kill are odd. Definately smart enough to be a good mafia. hmmmmm.... 7/10

4. raekuul- as usual contriversy surrounds raekuul early. Almost lynched ut saved by an Amb vote switch. more suspicious than innocent but still middle of the road on his alliances. 6/10

5. Courk- Not posting enough. But no real complaints either. 3/10

6. ralphmerridew- I remember feeling suspicious of you on one my read-thrughs but cant remember why right now. 6/10

7. Amb- I don't think his hammer was that suspicious we had two candidates he chose JDTAY. and I have liked what hes had to say this game. 4/10..... but jumps to 9/10 if raekuul is found to be scum.

8. sAbLLImiNal- not enough impact on the game as of yet but for some reason Im more worried about him than Courk. 5/10

9. milkshake- interesting game play from the milkshake but I think hes good for now. 4/10

11. Quailman- trying to keep conversation going and has made several good comments. Probably the strongest town vibe right now. 2/10

12. Poisonium- same with Courk. 3/10

thats my quick thoughts on all players without read-through which I may or may not have tie to do later tonight. :discuss:
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[raekuul]

By your reasoning, we should lynch Zag today, me tomorrow, and then...

Well, if for some reason I were to come up as a scum, then Amb would be lynched on day... 5? I've lost count already... yeah, Zag on day 2, me on day 3, and Amb on day 4.

But if Amb's more scummy than I am if I'm revealed to be scum, then wouldn't Amb also be the greater threat by your analysis? Would it really be wise to leave the greater maybe-threat alive while dealing with the obvious choice?

For that matter, why am I not higher up on the scum-o-meter? You and Amb seem to agree that I'm not as suspicious as everyone else thinks, care to back that up?

And now I've confused myself again.

[Zag]

Pretty much every time you post, you go up in suspicion in my ranking, raekuul.

I have trouble understanding why I am considered suspicious for finding the first day hammer to be suspicious. But, frankly, I want to see something happen, so let's all put our cards on the table. I still find Amb to be the most suspicious, and he's been pointing the finger at me. So I think everyone should take sides. At least, this way, if you people lynch me, then when you find me to be a townie, you'll go ahead and lynch Amb tomorrow.

Confirm vote: Amb

[raekuul]

I'm gonna follow UM on this one. vote: Zag

[Zag]

I'm becoming more and more convinced that Amb and raekuul are scum buddies.

[raekuul]

...do we really want to let a deadline pass again?

Also, UM, should I keep my vote on Zag, or do you have a re-evaluation to post sometime this month?

[Undercover Monk]

My main problem with Zag is that if anyone laid the hammer it was me. I basically begged someone to switch. Of course Zag could be right and Amb was just an opportunistic scum. However Amb is way to smart IMHO to pull off a newb move like that.

Zag seems like he is justing jumping on the easy kill to avoid a thought out lynch.

Vote: zag
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Zag]

[Undercover Monk]

or perhaps it is too long ago for me to remember it.

seriously i just dont buy the Amb hammer thing. If you have something else well thats different. and arguing that Amb knows people will think that about him, while possible, is only WIFOM. I will go take a look at your post analysis but if memory serves me your top suspect was MNOWAX.

Also day 1 vote analysis are rarely helpful as there is a lot of Bs'ing going on. it is hard to seperate the random votes from the ral strategy votes if there are any. I'm not trying to insult your intelligence. Just not onboard for a Amb vote....Yet!
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Zag]

There were three different things that I found suspicious about Amb. I agree that no one of them would be enough for a vote, but it's all I have to offer.

1. General suspicious voting on day 1. (However, I agree with your point below.) He wasn't the worst offender -- MNO was, IMHO -- but he was up there.
2. Hammer on day 1, especially moving off of raekuul, who is looking more and more suspicious to me every time he says anything. If they were scum buddies and he had made the vote to distance, then he would HAVE to move off and threaten someone else, in spite of how suspicious it might look.
3. (And I agree that this is really weak), The scum killed MNOWAX (I'm assuming that's who did it). So I was looking for who might have any sort of motive to kill MNO. He was, at the time, pointing the finger at Amb, which gives Amb a small amount of motive.

Again, it's nothing huge, but it's three little somethings, I think, making it better than a completely random guess.

[raekuul]

Not much, really.

And I look suspicious to you every time I blink, Zag. At least I didn't claim Swiss Army Townie, that would have probably been the worst thing I could have done.

[Amb]

SOrry I havent had much time to post. I have been reading the game though. There isn't that much to go on yet.
I may as well address Zag's three points.

[Poisonium]

[Poisonium]

[sAbLLimINal]

Could we have a vote count?

Here's my opinion: I think a raekuul lynch is the best lynch today because 1) we are getting rid of someone who is highly suspicious 2) it will more info on Amb. We haven't gotten anywhere lately and IIRC raekuul claimed vanilla townie so he's not much of a loss as compared to someone who claims he has some sort of role. That doesn't mean I think Zag is town, but I believe raekuul would be the smartest lynch. Frankly I just want to get somewhere and I don't think talking about WIFOM helps.

Vote: raekuul

[Quailman]

I don't know. I was highly suspicious of Raekuul, but since JDTAY's role was the same as his claim, I'm more willing to accept it. I think Zag's our best bet today.

[Undercover Monk]

agreed with the added note that sAbLLimINal last post was, I think, incrediably scummy. Lets just vote off a claimed towniee to get information. No you lynch the most suspicious. Which in this case I believe is zag.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Undercover Monk]

Oh and TGC could we get a vote count please.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Poisonium]

On rereading the original Day 2 posting by the mod, I'm inclined to

Unvote: Raekuul

The reasoning for this is not relevant right now. I assume you can accept that.
_________________
I tried apt-get install lifebut it only returned E: Couldn't find package life

[raekuul]

When will it become relevant?

[Amb]

When will the mod return?

[raekuul]

Apparently when Pois' reasoning becomes relevant.

[Undercover Monk]

oh crap nuggets TGC why would you abbandon us
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Poisonium]

[raekuul]

Oh where, oh where has our moderator gone? Oh where, oh where could he be?

Also, I will Unvote just in case a deadline is established retroactively.