Quick Mafia? - Game Over

[lexprod]

BTW, Undercover Monk, hope you're hungry for hat
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I'll have a P please...

[Undercover Monk]

munch munch munch munch
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[lexprod]

I suppose activity will pick up after the weekend? (poisonium aside I guess). Otherwise I'm gonna have to "lead" all up in here again.
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I'll have a P please...

[raekuul]

I've been wrong twice now.

Should I continue to go with my gut and call out Undercover Monk, or should I assume that I am wrong about trusting lexprod?

[Undercover Monk]

and dont forget poison to be honest my entire analysis was based on the idea of 2 mafia. I will try to get a new analysis done this week.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Poisonium]

I found an old Windows XP-machine, installed Ubuntu on it, and it runs smoothly now, so I can be online regularly again.

[lexprod]

I think there's supposed to be a period between "poison" and "to be". And I recommend raekuul is not wrong in trusting me, naturally
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I'll have a P please...

[sAbLLimINal]

Current Vote Count:

Not Voting - Everyone

[Poisonium]

Are no lynch votes legal in this game?
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I tried apt-get install lifebut it only returned E: Couldn't find package life

[lexprod]

Seriously? even with a no-lynch vote, we should be discussing yesterday's events in the light that we were wrong twice now. I'm really sick of getting nothing off of raekuul and poisonium, since now you are half the players left, and you can't afford to lurk anymore if we really wanna win this.

My read so far is that UM has gone quiet atm, which is annoying, but he was productive D2, and has promised a full re-read this week (not much time left.)

Poisonium has done...not a lot of anything, which makes it hard to go strongly one way or the other. This strategy is much better for scum than for town, as it also contributes less to discussion, and avoids accountability later in the game.

Raekuul's biggest scum-thing so far has been, like I said, the switch of bandwagons which led to the Zag lynch. It seems like raekuul just changed votes whenever his current vote lost steam, and eventually struck lynch. And the switch to Zag was without much comment. Yes I know the topic was discussed in thread, but you never said much in your own words.
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I'll have a P please...

[raekuul]

You want an explanation?

I had a hunch, and I acted on it. It was wrong, but it was better than sitting here twiddling my thumbs. So far, I've been wrong twice. My instinct is to go after UM right now since he's been backing me in some way on each of the lynches that went through, but with my luck you're the scum (or worse, it'd be Pois, who's managed to stay off the radar the entire game).

[sAbLLimINal]

[lexprod]

[sAbLLimINal]

Majority

[Undercover Monk]

yeah sorry I just had a big paper to do this week so not a lot of time to do that re-read.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Undercover Monk]

I decided to do a page by page recap. I started back at the beginning and re-read to see who jumped out as suspicious. Hold on to your keyboards folks its a long one.

Page1: Not a lot of activity just usual day 1 banter and randomn bandwaggoning. The only possible suspicious post comes from Raekuul on post 24

“gazes into Possibility* We're going to lynch a townie day 1, and then the Mafia kills me night 1.

Not a happy future, that.”

This could be trying to distance himself from the illusion of scum IDK. Not much to be had on this page

Page 2: I make a joke I get labled as scum. Meanwhile the rest of you hide behind pop culture refrences. Again no meat other than MNO(townie) acting way over the top.

Page 3: MNO hammers Zag, Raekuul tries to unvote. Zag is lynched. Raekuul makes another scummy post on post 90. (His explanation in hindsight looks weak. At this point I lean toward Raekuul as scum) Raekuul accuses lexprod of leading us which becomes a self-fufilling prophecy. (To that point I didn’t notice any real leader but lex does a decent job so thanks) Poison re-enters the game defends me and has a nice logical post (albeit I am biased to a supporter, post 101)

Post 103 another scum post from raekuul. He again acuuses lex of leading when between his last post and this one lex only posted a response to accusations and a record of raes actions. Notice in this post he not only tries to pin lex as a scum leading the town astray , pins me as mafia and is the first to actually suggest a 7(2) set-up. If he was mafia he knows this is not true but from this point that is the logic we use. Also the two people he accused were the ones who were suspicious of him.

After that we have some good questions and responses. Until MNO jumps out of his skin attacking both me and lex. Raekkul then defends lexprod??? MNOWAX and me start up our war. BTW he has a hat to eat two there is only 1 scum. I get a little too philosophical (MY Bad I was annoyed by MNOs behavior). END PAGE

Wow lots to dissect after I post this

Page 4:
Lex strts the page off with a lecture. Most points good except the only lex is leading person is raekuul. Two days later lex is leading the UM lynch campaign but I think that has more to do with MNO goading and voting him. Lex asks for more on raekuul and poison seconds. This time raekuul butters up to lex now that he has accepted the leadership role raekuul thrust upon him. He admonishes both MNO and UM without stepping into either camp. Post 134: My scum-o-meter (read it if you like to know what I was thinking late day 2) I have completely bought into the lex=leader scheme. The craziest thing is that I have completely fallen off the rae wagon I started day 2 on. MNO tries to use logic. Except we now know there is only one scum so the whole thing is useless. Lexprod finally votes MNOWAX. Poison doesn’t want to vote until everyone has one last say and Raekuul hammers. Lex wishes poison had done more cause he cant get a read on him. END PAGE

Page 5: only one real suspicious post. Post 171 by Rae. I backed your lynch??????? I was the one pushing the MNO lynch you backed me sir. And like I said on Zags I didn’t realize he was close to lynch when MNO hammered

Thoughts:
Rae has steered this game from the beginning and yet it is Lexprod who is seen as the leader (thanks to comments made by raekuul.) raekuul has done what I thought was impossible ; led the town without being seen as the leader and thus avoiding suspicion, til now…. You know its ironic that you accused me of being the great and powerful OZ cause that what you are doing. But now we will be paying attention to the man behind the curtain. I would like to hear everyones thoughts on this. Do you come to the same conclusions I do.
Vote: Raekuul
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[raekuul]

Look, we can argue this a million ways to Sunday and not get anywhere. We're clearly in 4(1) where a mislynch will cost us the game. I haven't said anything yet that isn't immediately obvious.

I was backseat leading?

*re-reads the thread*

Here, I'll do a page-by-page analysis as I re-read this.

There's... nothing on page 1 outside of the usual page 1 crap.

On page 2, I accuse MNO of being just as quick to lynch as UM (53), UM and Zag vote each other in a sort-of OMGUS way (56,57), and then I do my pop-culture reference post which votes Zag (75) [Point for UM's point, by the way].

Page 3 - MNO hammers (81), I try to unvote thinking that, due to a style conflict between here and IWBTF, it'll actually WORK (83), I make some apologetic post (90) that somehow manages to completely go unnoticed thanks to MNO's equally apologetic one right after it. Lex proposes a MNO lynch (95), and in the very next post I accuse him of leading us (I also accuse ralph of being scum, but I had forgotten that he was, um, DEAD). The war between MNO and UM begins with MNO's vote (99). A wild Poisonium appears (101) and gives his analysis of the situation thus far, which ends in his suspicion but not voting of MNO. I complain again about Lex leading us, but even then I was looking more at UM then Lex; I also suggest that we may be in a two-mafia setup, which clearly isn't the case (103). Lex says that lynching someone would be a mislynch (107) and MNO jumps on that as a "scum tell" (108). The votecount reveals that only lex and myself have votes, and even then only one vote each (115), and in the very next post UM is the first to vote for MNO (116), who responds with defending my assumption of 7(2) with boiled hat (117). Post 118 really got me thinking that you were scum, UM, and I asked you (120) if you were suggesting you knew which one of us was scum.

Wow, page 3 was busy.

Lex complains about an argument that I hadn't seen since I'd last complained about it (122). UM eats a hat (126). In post 131 I make a response post (not an analysis post!) that defends lex, tries to get an answer out of MNO, accuses UM of knowing more than he knows, and completely ignores Pois. I also said that if we managed to lynch the mod, I'd boil and eat my shoe. UM finally responds to being called out on the fork in the road speech (134) in his scumometer post, where he suggests finishing the MNO lynch. Lex points out that it was my vote that got the Zag lynch rolling (137, and another point for UM's point). UM is dismissive of the danger in post 138, which lex calls him out for in 141 (even though that's exactly what we're doing right now. Stupid 7(2) assumption). Pois refuses to vote in 145, which MNO congratulates him for. I vote MNO in 148, ending day 2. The mafia completely surprises us by not killing anyone, putting us in day 3. Lex starts up the suspicions of me again, for lack of a better target (155), which I still have yet to answer satisfactorily. Pois posts again (157), defending his lack of voting by saying he'd rather make points from speeches, but since he's been quiet most of the game I don't see how that works. The rest of page 4 is us being confused at there being no kill.

Day 5... so far, it's just been everyone asking me for an explanation, although UM does vote for me. I decide to do a page-by-page analysis, in which I do notice that (A) UM's right about me backseat leading and (B) I was backing him, not the other way around.

Huh. Okay, yeah, point against me.

lexprod: He was taking a bit of a leadership role before I pointed it out, which had me worried that he was trying to steer the discussion a certain way. I want to trust him, but at the same time I've been wrong about most everything this whole game.

Undercover Monk: So I was leading without actually leading? Wow. Never thought I'd do something stupid like that. Still, your overly-philosophical Fork-In-The-Road speech, much like your joke post from day one, just rubs me the wrong way. Do you or do you not claim to know who is and is not scum?

Pois: You've been quiet. Way too quiet. Was I right about the lurkers letting idiots like me and MNO do the dirty work for them?

Raekuul: You idiot. Complete and utter moron. If I didn't already know you were town, I'd lynch you here and now.

[Undercover Monk]

Yeah nice apologetic post there Rae. I would have been less suspicious if you had gone off at me. however i will try to answer where we disagree slightly.

First off, No, I do not know who is and isnt scum. Duh! as I have said before my fork in the road speech was based on exasperation. The idea that SAFE and SAFEST are synonyms is ludicrous and MNOWAX had finally gotten under my skin. so I responded with an elitist sarcastic monologue. My bad but I was annoyed. I dont think its a scum tell just a jerk tell.

Second. I dont think lex suggesting a lynch is leading, especially day 1 when bandwagons form and collapse within hours. He eventually did unwillingly accept it but only after you drilled it in our heads that the tyrant lexprod was controlling our actions. This was brilliant and scummy and you might have gotten away with it. Does it mean you ARE scum. No but it is horribly suspicious.

Third if poison is scum we are all screwed.

and I would like to hear from poison and lexprod both soon
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[raekuul]

Wait, you want me to get all angry at you?

Getting angry at anyone at this point would be a bad thing. We need to use our brains, not our emotions.

[lexprod]

I'm still alive, will post later tonight.
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I'll have a P please...

[Undercover Monk]

[lexprod]

I'm not as worried that raekuul isn't angry, as much as I'm worried he can't refute the evidence against him.

And, like both of you, I agree we must hear from poison NOW. I know you claimed that you'd rather speak with actions than words, but we need all hands on deck, and right now we aren't at the point of needing votes. So in summary, speak your mind on all three of us as scum candidates. Especially since the main scum evidence against you is that you don't talk, and the main town evidence against you is that you did nothing.
_________________
I'll have a P please...

[raekuul]

[Undercover Monk]

still with that. :shakes head:

Right now you are in the court of UM. Lex hasnt really added much yet today. I am the only one voting you and am the one with the beef with you. I guess what I am wondering is what evidence you have against Lex that makes you so sure of his scummieness. My re-read gave me nothing.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[raekuul]

My "evidence" against lex is this: My instinct is to trust him, but I've been wrong about everything else so far this game.

[Poisonium]

[lexprod]

Well I'm glad I'm trusted by everyone I guess. Problem is I don't know who to trust. Honestly my opinion is still stuck between poisonium and raekuul, because raekuul's recap ending seems to just paint a small hint of scum accusation at everyone without making a stand. Poisonium at least seems to have ranked his suspicions, though obviously it could just be he's hopping onto the first big "case" of the day hoping to ride it through to winning, since he hadn't made any remarks about who he suspected this day until after both UM and I were already addressing the raekuul case.
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I'll have a P please...

[sAbLLimINal]

Vote Count
raekuul - 1 (Undercover Monk)

[lexprod]

In hopes of moving this game to a successful finish, or at least forward, and since everyone trusts me, and I don't think we're getting another night out of this game, I admit I AM THE COP.

I investigated ralphmerridew first, got town, and then he died. Then I investigated Undercover Monk last night, also got town. That's why I've totally backed off him. No one seemed to comment on that, and still 100% trusts me, which is odd, but good.

Anyways, that's why I've been pushing the rae or pois choice today. From my perspective they are the only un-confirmed players. I was hoping to hold onto this to catch someone gunning for UM or myself, or to give townie-points to anyone that noticed that I was ignoring the Monk option, but no one was.
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I'll have a P please...

[raekuul]

My Instinct says to follow lex and lynch Pois.

My Brain and Voting History, however, are saying to ignore instinct.

I'm not sure I'd like either outcome. However, let me say this. It's not going to matter what I say or do at this point. We need three votes for a lynch, which means that, whoever we decide to lynch, everyone is going to have a hand in it. Assuming Lex is being honest, I now know with a surety who the last mafia member is. Poisonium is also going to say this. We can't even Knights and Knaves our way out of this because there's no condition saying that the mafia has to be a complete and total liar. We're just going to have to cut the knot.

I am going to supply the sword. Do what you will with it. vote: Poisonium

[Poisonium]

I find that difficult to believe. One mafia, 6 townies, and a cop? Doesn't sound balanced to me.
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I tried apt-get install lifebut it only returned E: Couldn't find package life

[Undercover Monk]

I agree with Poisonium on the unbalanced set-up but why would lex lie as we were not pressuring him. hmmm.

The catch 22 here is that if Lex is the sheriff our best bet is to no lynch. and force scum to either kill lex giving us a 50/50 chance, kill me a psuedo- confirmed innocent but allow lex to id him, or try and guess who lex will investigate and convince us that lex is scum. So confusing..... I will have to check back on lex's actions to see if he matches up.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[lexprod]

[Poisonium]

On the other hand, I see no real motive for Lexprod to claim. He was no in no danger of getting lynched before. At all. And frankly, Lexprod isn't stupid.

Hence, it seems the most logical choice to me to believe it.

While Undercover Monk makes a good point about no-lynching, he forgets one thing - that he (Undercover Monk) is completely cleared (at least, as long as we aren't dealing with a naive cop). So there's really two killing options for the scum at night.
I still think it's a good idea though. I say we no lynch, and see what happens. No matter what happens during the night, we'll have more information on the next day.
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I tried apt-get install lifebut it only returned E: Couldn't find package life

[raekuul]

Pois: You tipped your hand. UM said that he was a valid target.

[raekuul]

Although I will unvote anyway.

[Poisonium]

I didn't read Undercover Monk's post very throughoutly, it seems

I still agree with him though.

Vote: No Lynch
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I tried apt-get install lifebut it only returned E: Couldn't find package life

[Undercover Monk]

will wait to see what lex thinks. In all likely hood we will be dealing with a 50/50 shot anyway, should we just have a go? In fact i think I will keep my vote where it is for now.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[lexprod]

See the problem was for me that I wasn't sure what would happen with a no-lynch if I didn't speak, I was probably high on the scum-thinks-I'm-too-trusted list, so likely to swing anyways, and I was worried I would die without sharing the one bit of info I got. I guess I could have tried to bait another investigation out of the one scum, but wouldn't they just also not-kill in the night AGAIN? would that cause some sort of stalemate?

I claimed when I did to get things going, and it seems to have worked.

Poisonium, in post 191 on wednesday you said it was difficult to believe I was a cop. Then after UM says he's likely to believe I'm a cop, you say that the most logical choice is to believe I'm a cop. That looks like a 180 in 24 hours.

not gonna lie, now that I'm the most likely NK, the next day if we No-lynch would be pois, rae, and UM, and if you believe me now, you'll definately believe me "tomorrow" since I'll likely die and prove my role. Which is the same situation, UM is almost 100% confirmed town, so we choose between pois and rae. The scum's only other option is to kill rae/pois and hope to turn UM against me after I'd know for sure who town is.

Anyways, that paragraph is me saying I think another night without a vote seems to me like a chance for the mafia to fuck with us, not for us to really learn more. Which adds to what I don't like about poisonium's behaviour today.

Raekuul's reaction to my claim has been, i suppose appropiately, the opposite. You dug in and said "fine, it's him or me, here's my vote." I don't know why you unvoted/what you and poisonium are talking about with UM saying he is/isnt a target? Could someone explain that real quick?
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I'll have a P please...

[raekuul]

If you're honest about being a cop, UM's in the clear. Operating under that assumption, this tells me that Poisonium is the Mafia. There's just enough doubt left about you for me to not want to just out and out lynch him now, though, so the unvote stands.

If you're lying about being a cop, UM's still in the clear. Unless there are two mafia, but if that was the case we wouldn't be having this discussion now would we?

Either way, UM is now a confirmed innocent. Me jumping on Pois about not noticing what UM said about himself being at least semi-confirmed was just me trying to make him slip up, or me channeling MNOWAX, or something. Having set my emotions aside and my brain into motion, the most information we can get is, as everyone has said, from a night kill.