Quick Mafia? - Game Over

[raekuul]

and I just noticed that I didn't actually answer the question.

[lexprod]

I just am paranoid of letting things go to night again, as there's always the question of maybe something else going on we don't know about that could cause a worse situation come morning. I know, there's been no evidence of a second killing party, etc., but it still scares me, and the mafia is one of the four of us, and if we are all saying it must be pois or rae, I don't think we're gonna learn anything by waiting another night. I think we should all talk it out, look at the past posts, and you know, DO OUR JOB as opposed to waiting for the mafia to kill more people.
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I'll have a P please...

[raekuul]

Believe me, I understand where you're coming from. In your eyes, you have a 50% chance of being targeted tonight, and you're both the most trusted person in town (pardon the pun) AND the cop (most likely, but I still don't trust my instincts on this).

Do you want me to vote for Pois or not? I don't want to vote for him then have everyone vote No Lynch. I really want to see Pois hang at this point. Here's my list.

Lex: Claimed cop, cleared UM in doing so. Trusted with reservations.
UM: Cleared by UM.
Raekuul: Unconfirmed, could be scum. Heavily suspected by the Cleared Townie, moderately suspected by the cop and other Unconfirmed.
Poisonium: Unconfirmed, could be scum. Heavily suspected by the other unconfirmed, mildly suspected by the Cleared Townie and cop.

Now, like has been said, there can only be one mafia member for us to still be debating this at this point, as 4(2) with this climate would have the mafia push for me to be lynched based on the current suspicions that are out about me, then sealing the win tonight... assuming we would have even been allowed to go to Day with half the players being mafia.

BECAUSE there is only one mafia member, this means that Lex is most likely the cop (which means my instinct was right today when it came to him being trustable). It would be unwise for the mafia to counter-claim at this point, as Lex has cleared UM.

With that said, there are three roles in danger of being Nightkilled if we go to night. Our Cop has claimed, is out in the open, and most importantly has cleared Undercover Monk. The Unconfirmed Townie is a choice target because the Cop is only claimed, not confirmed. One lucky night and the Cop is in the noose tomorrow. The Cleared Townie, Undercover Monk, is in the least danger of being nightkilled tonight, because that would allow Lex enough time to find out for certain who the mafioso is. That leaves the mafia with two decent options: either the cop or the unconfirmed townie.

I am going to reinstate my vote: Poisonium, and now I will explain why Lex is in 100% danger of being night-killed tonight. As I said before, if I were the mafia member, I would need Lex alive tomorrow in order to have any chance at all of winning simply because everyone wants to see me swing for one reason or another. I would not be able to win against UM and Pois in a 3(1) scenario; I would need to have Lex investigate Pois and make UM distrust him... yeah, that'd be a town win, too. Pois, on the other hand, needs me alive if we go to Day 4, because I'm the perfect fall guy. UM already suspects me enough to vote for me, so with Lex out of the picture, Pois has a clear shot (pardon the pun) for victory.

Yes, this requires you to trust me to not be the mafia, because if Pois comes up innocent then either (A) I was the mafia all along, or else (B) Lex was lying. Either way, if we lynch today, we'd better be damn sure that we're getting scum.

tl;dr: Pois is mafia, Lex is the next target for nightkill because of how I am the most scummy in appearance.

[raekuul]

Uh, that should read "UM: Cleared by Lex"

[Undercover Monk]

nice posting raekuul. This is what we need from everyone especially poisonium. One problem with your logic. I am not a confirmed townie yet. The only way I become confirmed is for lex to be proven sheriff.

For Example:
If lex is mafia. he knows I am innocent....

crap my logic is the one screwed up. so if he sheriff I am innocent and if he is mafia then hes the only mafia. My bad I just realized that I am confirmed while writing this.


However I also am loathe to give the mafia a chance to kill us. and the whole one sheriff one mafia setup is still bothering me. I cant believe there would be an SK but I dont know. The one huge thing going for you Raekuul is you not realizing that ralphmerridew was dead. But that seems a bit contrived. I will have to go back to that.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[raekuul]

Me not realizing Ralph was dead was me not paying attention to the morning report.

When there's only one mafia member, they may as well just be called an SK.

[Poisonium]

If we go to night, we will (almost certainly) know afterwards if Lexprod is a liar or not. I don't suspect that he is, but it is in my opinion undisputed that going to night will give us more information.

I can also support a Raekuul lynch today, though. I strongly suspect he is mafia (90%), with Lexprod as a secondary choice (9%). Undercover Monk can still possibly be mafia, in the case that Lexprod may be an unreliable cop, but it's very unlikely.
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I tried apt-get install lifebut it only returned E: Couldn't find package life

[raekuul]

Umm, Pois, did you miss the part where Lex doesn't want to go to night? The MAFIA will want us to go to night without a lynch, because then the MAFIA can take out who they need to (either you or Lexprod) in order to maximize their chances of winning. I've already said why Lex is guaranteed to die if we go to night: I will be lynched if you and UM get a chance to lynch me, because everyone sees me as being scum more than they see you as being scum. The ONLY chance I would have as the mafia is to kill you and hope Lex investigated you.

[Poisonium]

I'm not entirely convinced that Raekuul if mafia. Lexprod could also be mafia. If we go to night, we will a significantly larger amount of info for tomorrow.

Unvote

I still view no lynch as the best option, but it doesn't seem like it'll ever go through.
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I tried apt-get install lifebut it only returned E: Couldn't find package life

[lexprod]

[raekuul]

Missing the point. If I were mafia, Pois dies. If you investigate him, I'd have ammunition to say "He is lying about being cop" and point to the now dead investigatee as evidence. Like I said, it'd still be a town win, but I'd have better chances against you and UM than Pois and UM. Somehow.

[lexprod]

I know that the mafia could try to keep me alive to double-bluff or whatever. That doesn't change the fact that I would have 100% certainty on who mafia is. So I guess what matters is do you trust me today. So far you seem to have, as you immediately voted Poisonium as soon as I claimed a cop. That tells me you have stronger belief I am the cop than you have a belief that I'm scum. If you're alive tomorrow I suppose that would change (if you somehow weren't mafia), which would technically mean you have more info on who is mafia, and how to vote.

Basically I see it as this. Right now as the cop, I've narrowed it down to 2. Tonight one of the four of us would probably die (nothing in the game has indicated the possibility for 2 kills in one night).

If I'm alive, I'll have narrowed it down to one scum, and if the other townie believes me (so far all 3 of you do) we'll win.

If I'm dead, we'll still have it narrowed down to two as my death will confirm UM's townie status, and we'll again be in a raekuul or poisonium situation.

So really, Undercover Monk is the jury in this situation. UM, what do you make of poisonium supporting a no-lynch, and raekuul supporting a lynch today?

Also if balance really seems off with 1 cop, 1 maf, 5 innocent, it could be that the mafia has a power too, say RB or role investigator. If that's the case, going to night -could- hold stronger ramifications, for if they are a RB, going to night would not gain us any more info, unless again, neither UM or I are killed.
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I'll have a P please...

[Undercover Monk]

I just dont know why Lex would claim if he wasn't sheriff. It would be an incredibly risky gambit to pull and I would have to tip my hat to him at the end of the game.

Poisonium post worries me. I have to agree with raekuul that going so flippantly to no lynch could be a mistake. Which is annoying cause I was fairly certain of Raekuuls guilt.

Poison do you really believe our lot will improve if we go to night. We can't know whats going to happen.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Poisonium]

If I'm right about either 3 townies, 1 mafia or 2 townies, 1 cop and 1 mafia, then there are likely no surprises in store if we go to night. If I'm wrong, well... Then we likely won't know anything new tomorrow. Maybe you are right that we are best off lynching Raekuul today.
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I tried apt-get install lifebut it only returned E: Couldn't find package life

[Undercover Monk]

[sAbLLimINal]

Vote Count
Poisionium - 1 (raekuul)

[Poisonium]

I'll be without internet until wednesday. I will likely have internet access tomorrow.
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I tried apt-get install lifebut it only returned E: Couldn't find package life

[lexprod]

I'm almost ready to throw a vote to raekuul and let the chips fall where they may. UM, how do you feel?
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I'll have a P please...

[Undercover Monk]

been a busy weekend including a 4 hour trip to watch my brother perform a 15 minute marching band show. ugh

so I will do the promised re-read of poison and cast my vote Monday. but yes will be a likely raekuul vote.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[lexprod]

reakuul: do you think there is enough evidence to build a case against poisonium? Help us decide, why is poisonium mafia over you?
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I'll have a P please...

[Poisonium]

Vote: Raekuul

This is my last post until wednesday.
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I tried apt-get install lifebut it only returned E: Couldn't find package life

[raekuul]

Why is Poisonium mafia over me?

I can give a hundred arguments as to why it has to be Pois. I could argue the truth, which is that my role really and truly is that of townie. I could argue that I called it, way back on page 2 or 3, that the lurker was letting us do his dirty work for him. I could argue about a hundred other things right now.

It's not going to matter what I say. Voting for Pois will require you to trust two people: Lex and myself. Pois being mafia is only true if Lex is the cop. I believe Lex is telling the truth. He cleared Undercover Monk, and that'd be a risky thing to do if you weren't cop at this stage of the game. You'd also have to trust that I'm really telling the truth.

The fact that I know I won't be able to make a compelling argument, though, is because of two things. My history in the game is not a very good one. I hammered MNO, after all, because I was tired of him and I thought he was scum. I really messed with our heads by leading Lex into leading, and MNO led Day 2 voting based on one of my many wrong assumptions.

Hell, if I didn't have a vested interest in me staying alive today, I'd vote for me based on how scummy I appear. Every argument I can make at this point can easily and readily be dismissed as me trying to look like town. It comes down to trust, and I can see that it's approaching zero very rapidly.

Lex, if you do decide to lynch me, then my only regret is that I only have one life to give for the town.

[Undercover Monk]

You know what I am just gonna go with my gut and Vote: Raekuul

Poisonium or lexprod if you guys were mafia my hat is off to you for a superb game.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[lexprod]

I am also going to bite the bullet. Vote Raekuul. Who knows, maybe they'll be a day 4 XD
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I'll have a P please...

[sAbLLimINal]

raekuul has been lynched, he was another townie.

It is now Night 3. You have 72 hours to send in your actions.

[sAbLLimINal]

Everyone all wakes up...well, there was only Poisonium left after he killed Undercover Monk and scared lexprod to death by being the only town member left.

Congrats to Poisonium for an impressive victory!


So I found this spreadsheet where all you have to do is type in the number of players and some other information and it gives you a list of roles. The reason why it was so town heavy was because I forgot to include ralphmerridew. Lexprod was a cop and Zag was also a normal townie, however if lexprod had investigated him, Zag would have turned out to be scum. I guess that was a way of balancing it, but it was still sided towards the town. Anyways, I found this game to be enjoyable to read and was rooting for the underdog to come out on top.

[raekuul]

Hi, welcome to Heck, have a hat and some ketchup

So, it looks like Zag would have been lynched anyway. You know, if we had lynched Zag after Lex investigated him, we'd have lynched Lex next and the game wouldn't have dragged out so long.

[lexprod]

I was starting to wonder if somehow maybe I was scum and didn't know it XD

Ugh, good game pois, sorry to everyone I pointed the finger out who turned out to be innocent (long list) and for being a crap town.
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I'll have a P please...

[ralphmerridew]

Regarding day 1: I didn't "hop on" the Zag bandwagon; I was the one who started it.

[Undercover Monk]

Donkey Balls

Great Game poison but I suppose me and MNOWAX made it easier for you. Oh well I actually liked the twist of only 1 mafia but yeah could have easily gone the other way.
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The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Zag]

Grats, poison. Fitting.

I knew from the beginning that ralphmerridew was town. In post 18, sAbLLimINal admitted that he hadn't sent rm a role, and was sending him one after everyone else already had one. Obviously, in a game this small, adding one person would never mean adding another mafia player. But I thought that was unfair meta-gaming and didn't mention it.

[MNOWAX]

damn damn damn, i was so wrong so many times this game, oh well.

Shall we have some hat together, UM?
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The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX

[Poisonium]

Hey, thanks

It's always satisfying winning alone
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I tried apt-get install lifebut it only returned E: Couldn't find package life

[MNOWAX]

Congrats Pois, and Thank you for hosting the game Sab!

This was a lot of fun getting back into mafia on a relaxed level. I would love to do it again real soon.
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The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX

[Undercover Monk]

[MNOWAX]

well done, with a bit of boss sauce / country sweet sauce.

I was so sure i had gotten my scum pair right, and when it was figured out that we only had one scum, I knew i was wayyy off.
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The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX