The Resistance : Spies win 3-1

[Sentran]

I can't find fault with your logic so far. With 4 pass votes the first time and only 1 fail the second time with the same group, it stands to reason that the team had only one spy. I'm actually leaning to it being Word, as he would want to remove suspicion from the team he created. Still, Poisonium seems less suspicious to me than bgg, so I'm fine with the team as it stands. I'll vote yes.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[wordcross]

I have no idea why a spy would have wanted to pretend in the first group of 4. The only logical decision for the next leader would have been to keep the same group if it passed, which it did. The spies could have had a second point right up front, but instead they waited and now they have to have 2 fail votes to win this round. As unlikely as that is, it seems like a ridiculous tactic.

The only way they would feel comfortable giving up a point was if they knew the next leader was a spy or if they felt confident they could shoot down group suggestions until a spy *is* the leader. There's not nearly enough agreement between players on who is and isn't a spy for the spies to be sure of defeating a vote on a group that includes at least one of them.

That makes me suspicious of Zag, even though he doesn't seem like he's a spy.

But if they knew that round 5 would be a spy leader, then waiting to get a point still doesn't make sense. They might have been able to win before getting to the double fail round.

What. The. Hell.
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Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like?

[Chaz]

Vote: No Zag's a spy.

I was worried that he probably was when he showed confusion after wordcross's team. He must have thought I'd need to add a player, and he planned on me adding rm.

We need to think before we proceed with the next round, but it's important to note that we need to have a team of all non-spies (since we need to survive this round and the next round.)

Zag's last post reads about as scummy as any post ever did. He says that he thinks I'm a spy, and then keeps me in the pool? What the hell? Why is rm not in the list of players you'd select from?

Certainly we need to do some analyzing now.
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The enemy's base is down.

[Zag]

Because I was trying to make a setup that you can't object to in your weaselly way. I'm pretty sure that you're the only spy on that team, which is good enough for this round.

[Chaz]

It wouldn't matter if I objected or not, since I'm only 1/9 votes.

Put it back on the shelf; I'm not buying it.
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The enemy's base is down.

[Poisonium]

I really have no reason to vote no to this proposal.
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I tried apt-get install lifebut it only returned E: Couldn't find package life

[Chaz]

I think it's far more likely that Zag, Poisonium and bgg1996 are spies than it is that Zag would do something to placate me.
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The enemy's base is down.

[MatthewV]

Currently, I will not support any team with bgg1996, Undercover Monk, or Sentran on it.

I don't think Chaz is a spy. If he was a spy, he would fail every mission he was on.

[Sentran]

Well, I'm now fairly convinced that MattV is a spy.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Sentran]

[Chaz]

I think it's important to realize that Sentran and Zag might both be spies... This explaining the weird outcome of the round wordcross lead.
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The enemy's base is down.

[MatthewV]

So you are against my decision to be against a team that had a spy on it?

We know for certain that 1+ of {wordcross, Chaz, Zag, Sentran} is a spy. I personally think Chaz would impulsively failed the mission. I accept that Zag is not a spy (potentially a bad assumption but we will never have any facts). I really don't trust wordcross and Sentran. But between the two of them, I really don't trust Sentran.

As people have realized, I really don't care if people think I am a spy. At this point in time, I am surprised the notion hasn't been shaken as I have been vocal and honest...something that would be difficult if I was influenced by actually knowing something.

Undercover Monk, bgg1996, Sentran is my prediction at this time.

[MatthewV]

From the meta gaming: Undercover Monk picked a team of Chaz, bgg, Pois.
The first posters of the game were Chaz, wordcross, bgg, then Pois.

If we accept that UM wanted to pick the "people who got a pm have a higher chance of being spies" then the team would be Chaz, wordcross, bgg
But if we assume UM is a spy, he would want exactly one spy on the team. Did he omit wordcross for this reason?

Trusted: MatthewV, Zag
OK: ralphmerridew, Poisonium, Chaz
Hmmm: wordcross, Sentran
Distrusted: Undercover Monk, bgg1996

[Undercover Monk]

yeah I also see no reason to suspect Chaz being the spy. Time to shock the world with my first no vote. I think Zag and mattV are spies. with either bgg or poison.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Sentran]

Would anyone like to look up my post count for the first two pages? If not, I'll tell you. It was one post, the one where I opted to join the game. I had NO posts for the first 36+ hours of the game, because I did not receive a PM and did not even know the game had started! But apparently I look guilty in every game I play. I even expect to be lynched in the next honesty quiz.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Chaz]

Honestly?
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The enemy's base is down.

[ralphmerridew]

Maybe there were two spies in that team. The first time, both passed, thinking the other would fail.

Also, we have to win both remaining rounds. As Chaz pointed out, our round 5 team has to be free of spies. Unless the spies do something stupid like having one spy fail the round 4 team, or we can get some good information out of the round 4 voting, we'll have to get that perfect team now.

And Zag's plan is terrible. Starting with a team known to have a spy is bad enough. Compounding that by choosing the last person from another team with a spy gives us a good chance of getting the guys who failed both the first two missions.

Vote: no

[Chaz]

So I just did some quick figuring.

{Chaz, bgg1996, Poisonium) - Fail
{Chaz, Zag, Sentran, wordcross} - Passed and Failed
{ralphmerridew, MatthewV, Undercover Monk} - None have been tried yet.

I came up with: nothing.
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The enemy's base is down.

[Zag]

[Chaz]

I kind of wanted to look at this longer, but my vote (of no) is sent.

In the next game, I think it would be better for the Rebels to wear their hearts not on their sleeves. I think we could have gleaned a lot more info from MattV's round if the spies didn't know what we were thinking. I blame myself for telling them too much, which is a rarity from me.
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The enemy's base is down.

[Sentran]

[wordcross]

we haven't heard very much from bgg lately. I wonder what his thoughts are.

I'm inclined to say no to this group. I think we need some more discussion before we finalize. As has been said, if we don't find out what will give us a win in the final round, we might as well give up now.

Vote: no
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Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like?

[Chaz]

[dethwing]

Sentran: Yes
bgg: No
Zag: Yes
MattV: No
Poisonium: Yes
ralphmerridew: No
Monk: No
chaz: no
Wordcross: No

Motion passes,

Group 2, Leader = ralphmerridew

[Chaz]

I'll assume you mean that the motion fails.
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The enemy's base is down.

[dethwing]

oops. Yeah.

[ralphmerridew]

Don't you mean "Motion fails"?

Sentran, Poisonium: You gave your reasons for supporting Zag's team in posts 201, 206. Do you have anything further to say about that?

First, I'm pretty sure Chaz is good. Were he a spy, I think he would have failed round two (with him having failed round one, I think that would avoid the symmetry problems if there were a second spy on that team). Even if we pegged him, his two spy buddies could be anyone, and they'd have an excellent chance of getting a spy onto the team in round 3 or 5. Plus there's the no PM claim.

Next, the remaining potential captains for this round are Sentran, Poisonium, and bgg. Since I think Chaz is good, at least one of the last two is a spy.

Zag: I'm pretty sure Zag's scum after his proposal.

wx: I don't think word would include Zagspy if he were scum. One spy is enough. Probably innocent.

Sentran: Two spies on word's team would explain the mission 2 pass, and I think that Zag / Sentran is the only likely two spy pairing. Also, he supported Zag's proposed team. Very suspicious.

Pois: One of two potential spies from the round 1 team. And he supported Zag's proposed team. Very suspicious. (If Pois is a spy, Zag's proposed team would have given the game to the spies.)

bgg: Again, one of two potential spies from round 1, but bgg didn't support Zag's team. Moderately suspicious.

UM: Didn't include himself on his round 1 team. Odd, but it could be chalked to inexperience. Other than that, I didn't notice any tells.

MV: Didn't notice any tells.

I think the spies are Zag, Sentran, and either bgg or Pois.
As such, I currently favor rm, Chaz, wx, UM, MV for my team. Does anybody have further advice before I put it up for a vote?

[Zag]

The spies among you have done well. The others who voted no are fools. They are UM, Chaz, and who?

[Chaz]

I don't care for MattV being in the group, rm.

I agree about Sentran. I first took notice of him when he tried to do the "I didn't get a PM" thing long after it was too late. For most players, I wouldn't have noticed, but Sentran seems more attentive. Him and Zag both being Scum could explain the weirdness of wx's team, but so could Zag's confusion about how many people I needed to choose.

Monk is unreadable. I think it's either him or Zag (but not both.) The more I read, the more I buy his story about the prisoner's dilemma.

Most (all?) of my suspicion toward Pois is from him being the only other option in the first round. I think I would replace MattV with Poison in your list; other than that, it seems not horrible.
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The enemy's base is down.

[Undercover Monk]

Im cool with that. though i still suspect mattv over sentran. But yeah any team without Zag and the pair of poison and bgg. is fine with me.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Sentran]

I am rapidly losing interest in a game that seems far more skewed in favor of the spies than the resistance. I doubt I will be playing again.
I supported Zag's proposed team, which earned us our first point. I cannot comprehend how earning points for the resistance makes me look like a spy.
I was thinking that Chaz looked innocent, but now in retrospect I’m not so sure. Either way, I’m relatively sure we only had one spy in the group for missions two and three. With no PMs allowed between them, it stands to reason that if there were two spies in that group, and they both saw that another did not fail mission two, they would both fail on mission three (not trusting that someone else would do so). I can’t remember, or perhaps it has not been brought up, but are the spies aware of who the other spies are?
The only thing I’d like to add to this is that I’ve had a few RL problems with my kids this week, and it’s likely coloring my judgment. If you feel I’m attacking or taking out my frustrations with players on the forum, you’re probably right, and I apologize. Unless RL changes drastically over the next week, I will likely be taking some time off of the site after the end of the current games.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Zag]

You've convinced me, rm, that you are the remaining spy.

UM is obviously a spy. As I said, no townie would have made the first team not including himself.

Chaz I'm less sure of, which is why I kept him on my team. I didn't expect you spies to agree to it, since I think it would have earned us a point, but I hoped the rest would understand the logic. Clearly not.

I have to agree with Sentran that this game is too weighted for the spies. 3/8 is way too large a fraction, when they only need one person on most teams to get a point from it.

If the game were a lot longer, then the town could possibly work out reliably who the spies are, but then the game would be too boring for words.

I presented one theory, and made a team that would be guaranteed successful if the theory is correct, and still 50% likely if Chaz's theory is correct, but the spies managed to squash it. By removing Chaz, then it still would guarantee it if I'm correct, but guarantee failure if Chaz's theory is correct. You townies amongst you, think harder.

Vote no to this group which is, IMHO, guaranteed to fail. Admittedly, that is based on knowing that I am town, which I am, so you'll just have to make your own decision.

[Chaz]

You weren't thinking big picture though Zag.

We didn't just have to win your round. We have to win both rounds, or there's no point in winning either round. That's why your motion failed.
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The enemy's base is down.

[Sentran]

Voted: No.
Let's see if I can get myself Mod-killed for quoting my PM. Here goes.
"


"
Get it?
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Chaz]

So you DID get a PM!
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The enemy's base is down.

[bgg1996]

Oh, what a coincidence. Three people voted no. Zag, Pois, and Sentran.
And it all fits.

[bgg1996]

* three people voted yes.

[MatthewV]

Note to Zag: it is 3/9 not 3/8.

Trusted: MatthewV, Zag, Poisonium, Chaz, Sentran

Hmmm: ralphmerridew, wordcross
Distrusted: Undercover Monk, bgg1996


Other aspects of the game: I think it might be fair if the final round was worth 3 points.

[Sentran]

[dethwing]

We've played many times in my gaming group and no one seems to think it's weighed unfairly in either direction.

Next game (If there is a next game....) I may add in the plot cards.