Ender's Game Mafia is over. Congrats, Town!!

[Chaz]

I'm starting to question the logic about suspecting people who switched to Sentran. I don't think scum could have guessed that he was about to be lynched.

I would mostly suspect people who weren't voting for Sentran--yes I realize that would include me in my own suspect list.

I do think we can get more info from the wordy kill then we can from the lynch.

Day one lynches are almost always random, but night one kills are calculated.
_________________
The enemy's base is down.

[Zag]

Official vote count

MNOWAX -
Chaz - Snik
raekuul -
Undercover Monk -
Sniklac16 -
Ctorj - Jedo
Lifeinmomland -
Jedo the Jedi -

Not voting: MNO, Chaz, rae, UMonk, Ctorj, Mom

[Lifeinmomland]

[Chaz]

I disagree.

Scum wouldn't have expected Sentran to actually be killed, so we can't glean too much info from his lynch.

Wordcross's death though, scum probably did plan that (as in "it probably wasn't a random choice" kind of "planning.")
_________________
The enemy's base is down.

[Ctorj]

[Chaz]

Nothing has happened yet. . . Mostly because nothing is happening.

Vote: Ctorj.

Straight up revenge vote. I meant to hit mom with it, but ran of out of quota time as I was about to post it.
_________________
The enemy's base is down.

[Lifeinmomland]

Alright, so here is my somewhat convoluted logic. IF Sentran's lynch was random, meaning the other scum didn't throw him under the bus, then the only clue we have for scum is the first night's death. That being said... wouldn't the scum have gone after a person who did vote for Sentran, being that he was scum?

But they didn't. They went after Wordcross, who was one of the few ineffective votes that day. I having a hard time drawing any conclusion from Wordcross's death UNLESS it was a revenge vote. He voted for Ctorj. I realize my logic is thin here, but really, it has all been this so far, the scum had nothing to gain from Wordcross's death unless Ctorj is scum.

*sigh* Yeah... I know. Thin and convoluted. Maybe it's because I am new, I just don't see who had anything to gain from Word's death.
_________________
Who is John Gult?

[Undercover Monk]

you guys keep using either/or reasoning here. Normally i hate both/and arguments but here it applies. Sentrans vote was random in that it was basically luck that the bandwagon worked. However that doesnt mean one of the later voters was not scum. Nor does it mean there wasnt a good reason to switch the votes as had been pointed out Sentran was jumpier than a fish outta water.

info can be taken from this lynch but only in context. I still havent gone back and analyzed the thread but it is on my massive to-do-list.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Ctorj]

[Ctorj]

[Lifeinmomland]

[quote="Ctorj
If Chaz was scum, why would Sentran, a fellow scum, hop on a bandwagon to another scum? The odds of that happening are astronomical. I just don't buy it. For the moment, this clears Chaz & UM. (tentatively, of course)
[/quote]

Would you rate those odds as astronomical as say... killing a scum on a random day 1 lynch??

I am still going through post looking for fishy behavior, but there isn't much yet, Add to that, the silence that seems to be the order of the day so far... I have nothing beyond a suspicion of Ctorj, and that is thin at best. Course, if I go by people being quite as a fishy thing... then everyone BUT Ctorj is fishy.

*bangs head on wall*
_________________
Who is John Gult?

[MNOWAX]

vote Jedo the Jedi
_________________
The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX

[Zag]

Looking for a little more action, here, folks. Let's put a tentative deadline of Wednesday at noon (EST).

[raekuul]

R> Vote Count

[Zag]

Official vote count

[Chaz]

Alright. Jedo looks good.

Unvote Ctorj; Vote Jedo the Jedi
_________________
The enemy's base is down.

[raekuul]

I believe that we are at L-2 right now. Jedo, if you would be so kind as to claim or defend or something so that we're not going into this all half-caulked?

[Ctorj]

[Jedo the Jedi]

First things first:

[Jedo the Jedi]

My vote is currently on Ctorj, and I like it there. Here's why:

1) His first day contributions are mostly null. Mostly some one-liners and a comment about not seeing anything solid. It's kind of understandable, but if you generate discussion, things always pop up. His contributions do not lean toward the category of "generating discussion." Also, the vote on wordcross was a flimsy, ancient-meta vote. Also understandable considering the "rust," but with the other it looks more suspicious.

2) Day 2: votes for Chaz even though he "isn't particularly scummy." This is not a good play. Scum wanting to look productive and blend in? Maybe. The vote is abandoned shortly after doing some research.

3) Uses some logic for why Chaz is now innocent: scum wouldn't vote each other day 1. This is huge WIFOM and not a very strong argument. Distancing and bussing are pretty classic, and when the going gets tough, the scum do crazy things. You do what you have to do. (Thank you, Sarah.)

4) Points out that at least one of the people voting Sentran are scum. No kidding. How many other people speculated that already? Again, trying to look productive. Wait for the setup to turn on Jedo...there it is! Scum are silent day 2, and Jedo is silent, ergo, Jedo is scum. Easy target. (Since I cleared up my silence, I should be off the list now.)

5) Look at Ctorj's most recent post. The astronomical occurrence is two scum voting a third on day 1. *shrug* Maybe, maybe not. It's not unheard of. That doesn't clear Chaz like it apparently did earlier. Chaz and Sentran being scum could have both voted for Monk who is town. That's not part of the astronomical unlikelihood. It also is conveniently ignored as a possibility.

So, based on Ctorj's logic, both other scum (assuming there are two) were not voting Sentran, meaning at most one was voting their buddy. The two (uncleared) people not voting Sentran were Ctorj and Chaz. You can see where I smell something foul.
_________________
Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Undercover Monk]

see i was thinkin the same thing as jedo for awhle and i couldnt put my finger on just why ctorj was setting off my sumdar. but after jedos post i went back and saw this monstrosity.

[Ctorj]

Jedo: Your flimsy points are weak at best and a poor defense for your play, especially on Day 1. Your initial reason for voting me you said is "a feeling" which has nothing to do with logic. I doubt you can go into more detail about your "feeling" on this except to back it up with weak points in an effort to validate your initial vote.

1. (won't requote for sake of space) You said my contribution was null. It's Day 1. Where you expecting role claiming? *rolls eyes*

2. My vote for Chaz is listed as scummy because I didn't find him "particularly scummy", but your vote on me for a "feeling" goes without saying? I don't think so, my friend.

3. When the going gets tough? IT'S DAY ONE! How tough can it be? (Unless you are scum and feeling some pressure already. Hmmm...)

4. Your silence is explained and that's fine. I already said my vote was partially OMGUS. Voting for people generates discussion. This is not scummy.

5. I have never heard of 2 scum voting for their 3rd scum fellow on Day 1. If you have heard of it, feel free to quiote the Mafia game. But that's all moot point anyways since the point was that I am going by odds. You also failed to mention that I do not buy their innocence, just temporarily they are off my radar. Another attempt to paint me as scummy by ignoring the valid parts of my arguments.

Overall, I do not blame your attack on me since everyone has a right to defend themselves. You have failed to prove your point. I will acknowledge any logical argument, but there's a lot of that lacking in your post.
_________________
"Love is the absolute expression of the human perfection" -Me!

Created by MyFitnessPal.com

[Undercover Monk]

the going is tough for scum they lost a member on day freakin 1. also if you want logic take on my post its chalk full of logiccy goodness.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Ctorj]

[Undercover Monk]

i actually agreed with jedo on most of his points. but it was the post i quoted that put you over the top. My vote was going back and forth between you and chaz in my head but youve clearly been leading the discussion and been rather sneaky about how you did it. thats enough for me on day 2 you didnt lynch scum and you are leading the town with bad logic. notice i only had you at 8/10 so if you can convince me then i will change my vote but you havent really responded to either post.

looking at your responses to jedo:

1. jedo said that this could be do to rust and a slow game but with the others it makes you look worse. (This is true regardless of the reason so lets move on to the more substantial claims)

2. this really has nothing to do with his original #2. he had a bad feeling about you did the research and then confirmed his vote. thats perfectly logical. feeling are perefectly valid reasonings if backed with logic. which he did.

3. already covered this. you didnt really make an argument about this point just argued language. poor responses from you so far. It is tough going for the scum right now

4. you again do not address the main point in fact i am going to copy and paste his #4 and your #4 so you can explain how you refuted this point. maybe im just not following you here...

jedo:Points out that at least one of the people voting Sentran are scum. No kidding. How many other people speculated that already? Again, trying to look productive. Wait for the setup to turn on Jedo...there it is! Scum are silent day 2, and Jedo is silent, ergo, Jedo is scum. Easy target. (Since I cleared up my silence, I should be off the list now.)

ctorj: Your silence is explained and that's fine. I already said my vote was partially OMGUS. Voting for people generates discussion. This is not scummy.

so your saying because your vote was OMGUS that it isnt scummy cause that just silly



#5 I think what he was saying was that you ignored chaz as a suspect even though it is very likely he and sentran were voting for me a townie. I already showed exactly how two scum could have voted sentran. If i am scum then we have two scum bandwagons and i asked my partner raekuul to join my bandwagon. There a perfectly reasonable and logical way for two scum to have lynched . so its not astronomical.

In fact right now there is no way to tell how many scum were on the sentran wagon. we dont have enough info. You didnt really address any of his core accusations you just twisted his words and misrepresented what he said.
maybe thats why you didnt want to use quotes
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Lifeinmomland]

[Lifeinmomland]

Huh, it looks like I allowed my 6 year old to type my last post.
Well... moving on.

In reviewing posts, the only thing that sticks out is lots of reliance on past games, which I can not judge having not been involved, and the death of Word. I stand by my notion that, had the vote on Sentran had been a deliberate act of the mafia, someone on that vote would have been targeted night one. Since they were not, I believe I must look seriously at who did NOT vote Sentran. Ctorj's arguments in defense of himself did not convince me, Chaz has not struck me as anything at all, much less scummy. So... thin as it may be, I will come down on this side of the fence.

VOTE CTORJ
_________________
Who is John Gult?

[Zag]

9 posts today, from 4 different people -- much better. If we get at least 4 more posts and at least 2 more new people before tomorrow morning, I will extend the deadline. However, for now, it stands.

Deadline: Wednesday at noon (EST).

[MNOWAX]

i'm here to take out JEdo. he refused to answer the previous question, and my vote will stay there until he does.
_________________
The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX

[Undercover Monk]

Zag I think your being a little harsh with the deadline posting slows to a crawl every weekend on the labyrinth. I suspect that it will pick up now that weekend is over.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Undercover Monk]

what previous question???
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Zag]

[MNOWAX]

sigh i didn't read his post a while back, he answered me about his vote switching.

Unvote
_________________
The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX

[Jedo the Jedi]

You mean this?

[Jedo the Jedi]

Now, I do want to briefly defend one other point from Ctorj. I first voted you on a feeling which understandably seems poor. Here are the circumstances surrounding that vote.

I had posted my leave of absence in the sign-up thread because it was night and I wanted to avoid a modkill. Day began before I left, so I wanted to get a post in giving my thoughts. I said I thought one of the Sentran voters was scum and that I would come back to that later. I also mentioned I had a bad feeling about you. Sure this wasn't based on in-depth analysis and logic, but many times feelings prove to be more accurate. (Look up the Getty kouros sometime.) I decided to put a vote down before my departure as a place holder and reminder to follow it up on my return. When I returned, I waded through your posts and realized why I felt that way and decided to stick with it, posting my reasons along with the affirmation.

Given this exchange, I continue to like my vote.

(Aside: I think Monk responded well on my behalf, but I decided to share my own perspective.)
_________________
Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Undercover Monk]

I will give ctorj one more day to respond before i add my vote to the pile.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Chaz]

Yeah, Jedo's logic seems believable. I think I was suspicious of Ctorj anyway.

Unvote Jedo; Vote: Ctorj
_________________
The enemy's base is down.

[Zag]

It's still pretty slow -- we're only on page 4! But it did pick up a bit, so I'm pushing the deadline back by one day, to Thursday noon, EST.

This is still a soft deadline. If there is significant action I'll extend it further or remove it.

[Undercover Monk]

I gave him a day so now time to add my vote. I cant remember if its 4 to lynch but even if its a hammer im cool with that.

Unvote, Vote: Ctorj
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Zag]

There are 8 people, so it is 5 to lynch. That makes 4 on Ctorj, so day is still ongoing.