Pendragon Mafia GAME OVER

[MNOWAX]

Vote Lifeinmomland
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The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX

[Zag]

As an aside, I have never played in a game that didn't start in the day, though I read that the traditional approach is to start with night. That actually includes that somebody signs up and doesn't even get to make a single post. I would hate that!

I think the next game I mod, the game will start at night, but I will actually have one more townie role than we have sign-ups for. Whoever is killed will immediately become a replacement, and take over the extra role. (It's a little problem if you have masons, and one of them is killed, but mostly it works, I think.)

Back to this game, MNO, I'm impressed by how you manage to continue to look scummy.

Mom, there's something about your post that seems wrong, to me. It feels more like you were in my game (i.e. when you were scum) than it does how you were in Sentran's game. Of course, that's comparing to when you were a jester (like the rest of us), so I guess it isn't really worth a comparison. (Plus I suspect that you knew all along, or at least you suspected something like an April Fool's Day prank.)

Anyway, I've got a mild FOS on Mom, and the usual FOS on MNO, which I know doesn't really mean anything. In fact, if I didn't find MNO's behavior suspicious, then THAT would be suspicious.

[Jedo the Jedi]

[Jedo the Jedi]

I think the auto preview on MS has spoiled me.

I don't think I typically find this play by MNO to be suspicious. Maybe I'm alone in that. I guess it reminds me of how IS would play, of whom my play is a modification (that being more vocal). *shrug*
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Ctorj]

Now that we're all NOT jesters

Vote: No Lynch

My new favorite thing to vote for.
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"Love is the absolute expression of the human perfection" -Me!

Created by MyFitnessPal.com

[Quailman]

And my new favorite is voting for no-lynchers.

unvote: Lucresia; vote: Ctorj

[Lifeinmomland]

I do understand that that the goal is to be chatting till scum slip up... I guess I feel that randomness is spread to everyone... scum, town, and every random role in between, so it really does not do any good. Bandwagons make some amount of sense I guess since SOMETHING must happen to make people respond,, but that does not change the odds of getting scum day 1 poor. I do admit I am working with 2 games as my base of knowledge, Perhaps experience will make me hate the day 1 randomness less. What have I learned from this game so far? For every action there is a rationalization as to why you are scum.

In answer to your statement Zag, I did not know... but I should have known better... 10 years of marriage has taught me little. I will tell you all now. I do not talk to my husband about this game until a winner is declared. He told me he had an idea for a game... but did not tell me about it because I was considering joining the mafia game world. One time ever did I slip and talk to my husband about a mafia game. ONCE. My first game ever and my first day even. It came about through a surprised exclamation, and I have been careful since then. If you view this as an offended rant, please don't. I just mean to make it clear we do not talk about a game with him until it is over.

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Who is John Gult?

[Ctorj]

[Jedo the Jedi]

If you know a better method, mom, I would be glad to hear it. As it is, in the last five games I've played, scum was caught day 1 in at least four of them (and I think the fifth one as well) using this method.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Zag]

I wasn't accusing you. I just suspected that he was walking around the house with a stupid grin on his face. BTW, I've been married 26 years, and I don't know what my wife is thinking, ever. Of course, she reads me like a book.

The other goal of the day 1 voting, in addition to hoping for a slip up, is the post-lynch analysis. Remember that the scum are trying to arrange a lynch on a townie, so they want to help these bandwagons along. They are going to try to slip their votes in where they can, but pull them back if the bandwagon is actually on one of their scum buddies. In a couple of days we'll have confirmation on the alignment of some of those bandwagon targets. Then we can analyze the votes and unvotes, with the added knowledge, to see who was trying, discreetly, to boost this bandwagon (which we now know was on a townie) over the top, and who was trying to deflate that one (which we now know was on a mafia).

This is only my sixth or seventh game, and I'm just now getting it. In my defense, my thinking was polluted by the approaches of others (whom we won't name) who said that the goal *coughcoughChazcough* of the day 1 bandwagon was to force people to claim. This, I knew, was a terrible idea, because all it does is tell the scum where the power roles are, or at least where they are not.

That said, I still am not comfortable voting for someone unless I actually have some reason to justify the vote. I think that Ctorj is playing the same game of misdirection that he was when he voted no lynch as a jester in the last game. And it seems as good a bandwagon as any. vote: Ctorj

[Sniklac16]

VOTE COUNT:

ctorj (2) - quailman, Zag
Lucresia (1) - jedo the jedi
Quailman (1) - Lucresia
lifeinmomland (1) - mnowax
Zag (1) - undercover monk
Mod (1) - sentran
no lynch (1) - ctorj

not voting - raekuul, lifeinmomland


please inform me of any mistakes
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What lies behind us and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.

[Sentran]

In the interest of furthering a bandwagon, Unvote, Vote: Ctorj
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Undercover Monk]

[Jedo the Jedi]

[Zag]

Death Eater Mafia was a set-up. I'm still not completely over it.

[MNOWAX]

unvote, vote Ctorj

LIke OMG WTF? No lynch is like not lynching someone. we cant have THAT!!!
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The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX

[Undercover Monk]

OK no one vote Ctorj til he has a chance to respond Im all for randomn or policy lynches just not until the accused has a chance to defend themselves.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Ctorj]

Voting No Lynch with the maximum amount of townies alive on Day 1 seems to be a good mathematical probability. I understand the counter argument, but don't see this as scummy though anyone can argue otherwise, but it's just not.

And Jedo, no I don't consider you a nemesis. Just a kid wishing he was at my level. You're not there yet. (Also, yes I just did join MS. Never played there so looking forward to it.)

Quailman & Zag both have decent reasons for voting for me and since it's Day 1, the reason doesn't have to be stellar.
Sentran wants to further a bandwagon.
Jedo is using the nemesis reason which is passable for now...
MNO has a very weak excuse for his furthering of a bandwagon.

I'm glad I can generate discussion and see where this goes. I'm comfortable

unvote; vote: MNOWAX

for having the weakest excuse to slip in and lynch someone.

There's my defense. I'll go into more detail if anyone wants.
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"Love is the absolute expression of the human perfection" -Me!

Created by MyFitnessPal.com

[Ctorj]

[Quailman]

I understand what you're saying about no-lynch, but I view it differently. With a no-lynch, we have a 0% chance of nailing a scumbag. We've been given the chance to string up a mafia. I also see the odds as better with a lynch. If there are 2, it's 2 of 9 (the 9 who are not me), not 2 of 10.

If we lynch someone, we'll learn something from the discussions and voting that went on today once we find out his alignment (though I've played in games where roles and alignments weren't revealed until the very end). I fear that if we don't lynch anyone, the bad guys will be able to select a candidate who doesn't help clarify the discussions and voting from today.

[Lucresia]

I feel a no lynch is a bad idea, but on day 1, I do not consider it a scum tell. The reason being that it's a highly debated topic and people have different views on whether it is good for the town. If Ctorj feels it is good for the town and I see his reasoning, then it doesn't seem to me like he's trying to hurt the town.

I personally do not think it is helpful to the town for a few reasons. One reason is that we do not have a chance to get a lot of discussion in before kills. It's like establishing a baseline for the conversation that is to come on the following days after we do get the information from the night kill and I think it is very helpful. I used to remember mafia games all starting with night time and if you get information on the role that died, maybe that could spark some good conversation, however you were already down at least 1 person which makes the odds of winning much less for the town. I also think as Quailman has already stated that the odds are better with a lynch. You have no chance of catching a scum by voting no lynch and imo the chance is not so minimal that we will lynch a scum that it outweighs voting at all.
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"And All anybody knows, is you're not like them" -Elliott Smith

[Undercover Monk]

Well I'm always ready for a day 1 MNO lynch. (Its my policy ) But he is playing like he always plays. Its very hard to tell what MNO is thinking cause he is so impulsive. but for now the vote add isnt that scummy.

But I think just because there is a difference of opinion on something doesn't necesarilly make it unscummy to suggest a bad idea. If Ctorj knows no lynch is a bad idea on day 1 but proposes it just because it is a contriversial topic he can be fairly safe that it wont insure his demise. The same reason if I was scum I can now safely propose a policy lynch because I have been known to support those even as a townie. The best mafia players play the exact same way as town or scum. So its hard to know sometimes if a bad suggestion is merely a difference of opinion or a scum taking advantage of an unresolved issue to lead the town astray.

i for one believe the behavior to be more scummy then just a difference of opinion and your response has not really changed my mind. We need to at least have an idea of who is scum vs. town for the real talk to happen day 2. No lynch is NEVER a good idea on day 1. And since I have had a pretty decent record of catching scum I don't mind being the hammer this time. Vote: Ctorj
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Sniklac16]

Press Tilton corned ctorj in the corner of the subway while he was heading for the flume. "Where you heading?" he said as ctorj cringed and slowly turned around petrified. The other travelers standing behind press like a shadow. "It wasn't me I swear, i've stayed true protecting halla" "I don't believe you" yelled press as the travelers went in for the kill.

CtorJ - kasha mason lynched day 1

And with that it is now night deadline for night choices are sunday april 3rd at 8:00pm est
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What lies behind us and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.

[Sniklac16]

FINAL VOTE COUNT DAY 1

ctorj (6) - quailman, Zag, sentran, jedo the jedi, mnowax, undercover monk
quailman (1) - Lucresia
mnowax (1) - ctorj

not voting lifeinmomland, raekuul
_________________
What lies behind us and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.

[Sniklac16]

Ok im starting day 2 a couple hours early I had all night choices in yesterday...

Day broke and lead traveler called another meeting. When all the travelers had gathered there was just one missing. "Wheres bobby?" said one. "Hes probably still asleep, go upstairs and check on him". But when they checked on him they found that he was in fact asleep....an eternal slumber

Quailman Bobby Pendragon - Doctor killed night 1

And with that it is now day with 8 alive it will take 5 to lynch
_________________
What lies behind us and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.

[raekuul]

Ugh... I hate it when the scum do this. The only lead I have at the moment is Lucresia, and I strongly doubt it's anything substantial. There is literally nothing to go on in terms of interaction between the two of them.

Any thoughts from the others?

[Ctorj]

Bah!!

Can't believe this town let the scum take down 2 power roles already.

Good luck. You guys will need it.
_________________
"Love is the absolute expression of the human perfection" -Me!

Created by MyFitnessPal.com

[Sentran]

Vote: Lifeinmomland
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Quailman]

bah!

[Zag]

Crap!! This is a disaster.

No kidding, Ctorj. Sorry to see you go. I feel bad about the part I played in getting you lynched. I still disagree with you about a no lynch, but I disagree more with the fast lynch on day 1. MNO and UM, you both have earned places on the FOS hall of shame.

And I'm especially sorry to see you go, Quail. If it weren't for bad luck, we'd have no luck at all.

Since their advice is the only advice I trust, right now, I am going to look back over what Ctorj and Quail have had to say. It doesn't mean that they knew any more than the rest of us (well, Ctorj did) but at least we know it's honest, so it seems worth reviewing.

#29, Q votes Lucresia. It's still sort of the joking around period, so I don't put a lot in it. He did, however, have a reason for the vote, slight as it was.
#32. Lucresia votes him back, still just joking, I think
#45. Ctorj votes no lynch
#46. Quail votes for him for it. (I guess that doesn't tell us much. )
#48. Ctorj compliments Mom, not declaration of trust, though.
#50. Zag votes Ctorj (second vote), interpreting his 'no lynch' as the same misdirection he used in the all-jester game. (Oops!)
#52. Sentran votes Ctorj (third vote), saying he just wants to further a bandwagon. Moderately suspicious.
#53. UM is FOS of Ctorj for the no lynch vote
#54. Jedo votes Ctorj, calling him his nemesis. (fourth vote)
#56. MNO votes Ctorj (fifth), claiming it's about the no lynch. He doesn't even mention that this puts him at L-1, though that's probably not necessary with this crowd.
#57. UM calls for no more votes on him until he has a chance to speak.
#58. Ctorj defends himself on probability grounds. Having looked at all the votes on him, he finds MNO's to be the most suspicious, by a lot, and votes him.
#59. Ctorj repeats
#60. Quail disagrees, and leaves his vote where it is.
#61. Lucresia disagrees with the no lynch, but does not consider it a scum tell.
#63. UM finds Ctorj's defense to be hollow, and hammers him.

So, after doing all that, I didn't find anything terribly new in it. Quail stated no opinions other than about Ctorj, so that was useless.

Ctorj most suspected MNO, but he didn't get a chance to react to UM's vote for him. (However, UM had, before then, FOS'ed him, which Ctorj didn't address directly. He probably had bigger worries.)

I put MNO and UM high on the FOS list, and Sentran and Jedo a distant third. Jedo was after Sentran, but Sentran's reason was lamer. Also, Ctorj found Sentran's vote more suspicious, which I give some weight to.

But it seems like two obvious candidates. I don't see a clear choice between them.

----------------------

Looking at the new day stuff:

raekuul, why Lucresia? You say it's not substantial, but it's all you have!?! Did you not find MNO's and UM's fast lynch suspicious?

-----------------------
Checking preview before I submit

Sentran, really? I find this really suspicious, to throw out such a seemingly nonsensical vote (for you own wife, no less) without giving even a shred of evidence or reasoning. You just went up on the FOS ladder -- still below prime two, but a strong surge forward.

[Lucresia]

[raekuul]

The reason I was gone all of day one was because I was out of town doing landscaping for a relative; I'm sure the Restricted Access and Vacations thread isn't that overlooked, and I did post there about it.

Zag: Lucresia versus Quailman is the only thing that really stands out to me so far from Day 1; I wasn't here to check the thread every hour or so to see just how fast the actions/reactions were, and I don't usually pay attention to timestamps except for what's in the mod's posts. The only reason Lucresia stands out is because of the usual "Lucresia was voting Quail at lynch, and Quail died the following night" reasoning, which I've learned not to trust until late-game.

Lucresia: I'll keep my eye on you in return, I think the scum might be trying for a misdirection here where Quail's death is concerned. You're literally the only one with anything resembling a motive in this instance, but as I said, I've learned not to trust that sort of thing until late-game.

As for the MNO/UM quicklynch of Ctorj, I'm really going to have to spend some time seriously studying the thread.

Sentran: Why Momland?

[MNOWAX]

I think its pretty obvious who to lynch next.

\Vote Undercover Monk
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The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX

[Zag]

No remorse, no explanation, just a desperate attempt to point to someone else. I think I agree with your comment, but not your conclusion.

vote: MNOWAX

[Sentran]

Even though defending myself is seen as a scum tell, so is not defending myself. Everyone agrees that bandwagons creating and derailing is what generates conversation on day 1. I jumped on to a newly forming bandwagon (third vote), figuring it would derail at 4 or 5 votes, as they frequently do. I did not move my vote because Ctorj's arguments were not very moving. I understand his reasoning about probabilities, but I agree that any chance to get scum beats zero chance to get scum.

I voted Lifeinmomland today to gauge her reaction and to wait for someone else to provide a better argument. Unfortunately, she had not checked the thread recently, and telling her to do so would be a bit leading, even in my opinion. Now that you've provided some logical reasoning, Unvote, Vote: MNOWAX
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[MNOWAX]

hey, my vote yesterday was good for the town, not monks.
_________________
The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX

[Jedo the Jedi]

Wow. Loosing a doctor blows.

Okay, I can see and understand the arguments for today's lynch, but I want to propose a new direction. I'm guessing that not all of the scum were on that Ctorj lynch. In my experience, that would just be too crazy of a gambit by scum. Admittedly, if there are only two scum in this game, it is less crazy than if there were three, but I still think the place to look for scum is in the three who weren't voting Ctorj. (I'm positive at least one scum was voting Ctorj, but I would rather attack the smaller pool first. The odds just seem greater that way.)

The main problem with this is that Ctorj's mason buddy is probably also one of the three different voters. Anyway, my options for a scum are mom, Lucresia, and rae. I'll go see which one looks most scummy of those. (I'm going to ignore the whole "Lucresia was voting for Quail" thing like Zag did when it comes to supporting evidence. That's just a WIFOM mess which isn't worth working through.)
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Undercover Monk]

[Jedo the Jedi]

That was actually rae who brought up the thing between Lucresia and Quail. My apologies.

Looking back, mom seems most suspicious to me. Lucresia had her reasons for not voting Ctorj which were logical and understandable. rae was gone, so that unfortunately gives me no posts from yesterday to analyze. That doesn't exempt him (sometimes scum have those convenient excuses), but I'll just have to watch him today for scumminess.

Anyway, I say mom because she was here and posting, but she never slapped a vote down anywhere. You didn't find a single person suspicious yesterday, mom? Given the posts about not understanding random voting and such, I understand why you would wait to place a vote, but the fact that you never placed a vote yesterday really stands out. Plus, there's a high probability of you milking that newbie thing some more. (I only say that because I recently did it myself on MafiaScum.) vote Lifeinmomland

That's what I have for now. If no one is really on track with me, I'll look more at MNO and Monk (those seem like the top choices for scummy Ctorj-voters), but I think we have a good shot with my plan.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Jedo the Jedi]

I really should learn to preview.

Monk, how likely would you say it is for there to be a scum in the non-Ctorj voters? The probability of catching scum in that group is definitely higher, but only if there is one in there at all. I guess I was putting too much stock in that possibility without first considering the odds of one in there at all.

It is hard to believe the Ctorj lynch was only town driven. I mean, it is reasonable for people to react against the no lynch like that, so the early votes could have given the wagon good steam on which to build; but to think that so many townies jumped all over that is unlikely. The question is, how many scum would it take to push? Is one enough? Would the scum even necessarily think like that? They don't care who is lynched day one (sometimes even if it's their own) as long as they continue to look like a townie. I think with only a two-person scum team, there is still a good chance of them going different directions to avoid association.

Unless I see a good argument, I've talked myself into at least one scum not voting for Ctorj regardless of there being two or three of them total.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.