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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine
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Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2011 5:41 pm Post subject: 81 |
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Jedo, I disagree that the other Mason was voting for Ctorj. It makes far more sense to me that one of the non-voters was the other Mason. _________________ Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland |
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Sniklac16
Spaciest of aides
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Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2011 6:59 pm Post subject: 82 |
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VOTE COUNT
mnowax (3) - zag, sentran, undercover monk
undercover monk (2) Lucresia, mnowax
LIML (1) jedo the jedi
not voting - LIML, raekuul
let me know of any mistakes _________________ What lies behind us and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us. |
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Zag
Unintentionally offensive old coot
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Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2011 7:31 pm Post subject: 83 |
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| Sentran wrote: |
| Jedo, I disagree that the other Mason was voting for Ctorj. It makes far more sense to me that one of the non-voters was the other Mason. |
Since this is on the new page, I read this before seeing any of Jedo's notes, so I thought, "Is he crazy? There is no reason for a mason to vote for his buddy. Perhaps a scum tell -- trying to obfuscate?"
However, he said no such thing. He said that he thought that there must be at least one scum among the people who didn't vote Ctorj, and he added "The main problem with this is that Ctorj's mason buddy is probably also one of the three different voters." Is this you trying to obfuscate, Sentran, or did you just not read it carefully? I'm inclined to give you credit (?) for poor reading comprehension, on this one, because it's just too clumsy a scum move to have deliberately lied about a post we can all go back and read.
Jedo:
While I agree that probably one of the non-voters is likely a scum, I don't find it to be nearly as likely as you find it. Let's say there are two scum (since we are already at lynch-or-lose if there are three, and that seems like too many for a game this small, unless there are a LOT of townie power roles).
I put it at say, only 25% that both scum voted for Ctorj, and it is 75% chance that they split up, as you said. Assuming we had nothing else to go on and are just choosing blind, with no knowledge but that percentage. I'll also assume, initially, that I am a bystander, rather than someone who already knows his own alignment.
75% case:
Choose from non-voters: 1/3 chance of success
Choose from voters: 1/5 chance of success
25% case:
Choose from non-voters: 0 chance of success
Choose from voters: 2/5 chance of success
total:
Choose from non-voters: 1/3 (75%) + 0 = 25%
Choose from voters: 1/5(75%) + 2/5(25%) = 25%
Hah! I really didn't pick that 75/25 on purpose to make it come out that way.
However, each of us who is a townie who voted for Ctorj should make this analysis
75% case:
Choose from non-voters: 1/3 chance of success
Choose from voters: 1/4 chance of success
25% case:
Choose from non-voters: 0 chance of success
Choose from voters: 2/4 chance of success
total:
Choose from non-voters: 1/3 (75%) + 0 = 25%
Choose from voters: 1/4(75%) + 2/4(25%) = 31.25%
Hmmm. I guess, from the point of view of a townie who didn't vote for him, the odds would go the other way. So why did I post all this if it really doesn't disprove the point? I did all this work to figure out the odds, so I thought someone should have to read it.
Anyway, I did show, I think, that from YOUR point of view, Jedo, assuming you are innocent, then going with someone who did vote for Ctorj is your percentage play. (Of course, that IS based on my 75/25 assumption. If you really think it is a lot higher, then you are right.)
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But the ultimate point I was headed for was that we don't need to operate solely on probability, we have behavior to look at. MNO and UM both look scummy to me, and Sentran is quickly catching up with them. I could make a case for Mom, or Lucresia, but I'd be reaching in both cases. Neither of them is more than a tiny ping in my scumdar, especially compared to the gong-sound of the others. |
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MNOWAX
0.999... of a Troll
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Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2011 7:50 pm Post subject: 84 |
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| Undercover Monk wrote: |
| MNOWAX wrote: |
| hey, my vote yesterday was good for the town, not monks. |
How was your vote for the good of the town you helped lynch our mason. Of course I'm going to vote you so we are tied but this is the type of post that gets ou lynched even though you are rarely scum. Small lurker posts like this with no information is why you are always on my lynch first list. It is not helpful to the town regardless of your allignment. Vote: MNOWAX
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Really? REALLY? You LYNCHED him, not me! My vote was to put pressure, and get something from the pressure, not string'em up and see what happens like you did.
I'm pretty comfortable with my vote now. I won't rest until you swing and twitch. _________________ The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX |
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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine
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Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2011 8:06 pm Post subject: 85 |
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| Sentran wrote: |
| Jedo, I disagree that the other Mason was voting for Ctorj. It makes far more sense to me that one of the non-voters was the other Mason. |
Disregard that post. As Zag suggested, I re-read Jedo's post, and I read it completely wrong the first time. I could have sworn I read that said the Mason buddy was one of the voters, but I guess not. My bad. _________________ Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland |
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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine
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Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2011 8:11 pm Post subject: 86 |
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I'd like to add that while he's trying to be (or look) helpful and posting more than most, Zag is looking to the posters more than the lurkers. If these games have shown me anything, it's that lurking appears scummy to me. _________________ Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland |
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Undercover Monk
Professor Chaos
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Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2011 8:42 pm Post subject: 87 |
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| MNOWAX wrote: |
Really? REALLY? You LYNCHED him, not me! My vote was to put pressure, and get something from the pressure, not string'em up and see what happens like you did.
I'm pretty comfortable with my vote now. I won't rest until you swing and twitch. |
Oh really My vote was the only one that caused Ctorj to be lynched. I normally try to not let the games on the GL get to me. But this post trully pissed me off. It took SIX votes to kill Ctorj and while my vote was the hammer that does not mean you are absolved of any guilt. Why did you put pressure on Ctorj, MNOWAX? huh? was it not your usual ploy of jumping on any wagon with more than two people on it without any reasoning whatsoever. Could it be this behavior that gets you lynched so often.
And now you get on your high horse telling me that Im the only one who had anything to do with his lynching. You claim your vote was to put pressure on him. But he was already at L-2 with a large FOS from me. If any more pressure was put on him he'd be at the center of the earth. And yet you put another vote on him knowing I was likely to follow. And what reasoning did you give
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LIke OMG WTF? No lynch is like not lynching someone. we cant have THAT!!! |
classic MNOWAX but this time with a glint of evil. Knowing that I already wanted to vote him. I am guilty of the killing blow but you didnt do him any favors. He already had enough pressure on him and you just followed the bandwagon as to why you voted him. That just as scummy if not more so. Take responsibility for your actions you coward. _________________ The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning |
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Lucresia
Sheds Titles
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Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2011 9:21 pm Post subject: 88 |
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| raekuul wrote: |
| The reason I was gone all of day one was because I was out of town doing landscaping for a relative; I'm sure the Restricted Access and Vacations thread isn't that overlooked, and I did post there about it. |
Point taken and suspicion a bit lowered as I really don't have any other substantial tells toward you being scum since you haven't had much time to post then. I apologize, but I had not checked this thread to see if you were on a leave for any extended period when making my original post.
| raekuul wrote: |
| "Lucresia was voting Quail at lynch, and Quail died the following night" reasoning |
This vote was still my "OMGUS" vote since quail voted for me from page 1. With Undercover Monk hammering and so early on page 2 still, I hadn't even had a chance to unvote from my omgus vote.
| MNOWAX wrote: |
| hey, my vote yesterday was good for the town, not monks. |
| Undercover Monk wrote: |
| How was your vote for the good of the town you helped lynch our mason |
| MNOWAX wrote: |
| Really? REALLY? You LYNCHED him, not me! My vote was to put pressure, and get something from the pressure, not string'em up and see what happens like you did. |
I don't think being the L-1 vote is quite as bad as hammering and KNOWING you are hammering on the vote and so early in the day. However even with that said, when I read MNOWAX's post all I could think of was the same response Undercover Monk stated: How is your vote good for the town?
You say that your vote was good for the town because it was a pressure vote, but L-2 was already enough pressure on someone and if it had been a bit and Ctorj didn't respond, then okay maybe a L-1 would force him to, but you didn't really give him any time to respond to the pressure for L-2. L-1 is bad because a scum which I beleive may be the case in this scenario, can jsut throw a vote down and end the day.
| Undercover Monk wrote: |
| and while I maybe should have waited a little longer I did give him a chance to respond before I upgraded my FOS. |
Yes he did respond before you escalated to a vote, but I think Ctorj gave his reasoning for why he thought no lynch was a good idea and even if you disagree, knowing you are hammering and ending the day simply leaves us without any further information except ctorj's feeling on lynch/no lynch on day 1 with no night 0...
This whole scenario makes both MNOWAX and Undercover Monk very suspicious to me. Although if the game really does have only two mafia, I don't know if both mafia would be the last two people on the bandwagon. It would really be just bad play. So I am having difficulty deciding if both MNOWAX and Undercover are both mafia and just poor scum players, or if one is scum and the other just didn't realize their vote was a bad move. But if the game has three mafia, which I hope is not the case, but we did start with day and not night, then they might both be mafia and there might be one not on the bandwagon. so with the possibility of 3 mafia, below are the people I have on my radar:lifeinmomland, raekuul (although like I said less suspicious since he has an alibi for day 1 not posting), MNOWAX, Undercover Monk.
Right now I think the person who hammered the vote yesterday is the most suspicious and my vote still stands.
P Edit:
| Undercover Monk wrote: |
| And yet you put another vote on him knowing I was likely to follow. |
Even though I agree that MNOWAX is not off the hook for putting ctorj at L-1, your reasoning is not a good justification. You knew when he was at L-1 because you said you knew you were hammering in the post. Even if you felt this way but didn't want him to be killed yet then you would NOT have voted him yet. _________________ "And All anybody knows, is you're not like them" -Elliott Smith |
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MNOWAX
0.999... of a Troll
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Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2011 9:41 pm Post subject: 89 |
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Lucresia is absolutely right in the fact that UM KNEW he was putting Ctorj in the ground. My vote, while quite precarious, was certainly not a death Sentence for Ctorj. This also assumes, of course, scum doesn't decide to HAMMER four posts later after no one responded to Ctorj's argument. My vote would have been off assuming Monk-scum waited just a few hours later. _________________ The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX |
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Undercover Monk
Professor Chaos
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Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2011 10:08 pm Post subject: 90 |
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| Lucresia wrote: |
Even though I agree that MNOWAX is not off the hook for putting ctorj at L-1, your reasoning is not a good justification. You knew when he was at L-1 because you said you knew you were hammering in the post. Even if you felt this way but didn't want him to be killed yet then you would NOT have voted him yet. |
No I definitely knew I was hammering. My point is MNO's vote (especially) if he is scum could be viewed as a psuedo-hammer. You dont put someone at L-1 with a vote looming if Ctorj does not respond unless you want him lynched. Ctorj did respond and though with hindsight I probably should have waited I wasn't happy with his defense. (Seriously voting no lynch on Day 1 is incrediably scummy or stupid behavior in my opinion).
I was probably drinking my own kool-aid a bit there too. But in college basketball if you are on a hot streak you take that shot even if you are heavily guarded [Go Butler, Go Zach Hahn] because its probably going in. Eventually you cool off and thats what happened to me.
But I stand by that lynch. We all know we have lynched for far less than a no lynch campaign and as far as info got from that lynch we have had a pretty active day so we obviously have things to talk about. My vote also stands. _________________ The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning |
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Lifeinmomland
Soccer, dance, doctor's appt. this AM.
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Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2011 10:26 pm Post subject: 91 |
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Sometimes I hate computers. This one ate my post I have been working on for a bit now. The gist of which is as follows.
I think MNO places his vote where and when he did with targeted intent. I believe he saw that UM was already set on a pretty solid path against Ctorj, and used UM to kill a townie.
VOTE MNO
The Luc/Quail thing is most likely a play to limit info given to town by the kill. With a possible side affect that we look at Luc. It should be looked at again on Day 3 I believe IF those of us after UM and MNO are wrong.
I think it's possible UM used Jedo introducing the idea that mafia have been caught several times on day 1 as a platform to gain our (by which I mean townies) trust. _________________ Who is John Gult? |
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MNOWAX
0.999... of a Troll
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Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2011 10:31 pm Post subject: 92 |
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ok since i have been brought to L-1 i shall claim.
I am Adler. nothing more than a vanilla townie. That should sway all of you! _________________ The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX |
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Lifeinmomland
Soccer, dance, doctor's appt. this AM.
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Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2011 10:43 pm Post subject: 93 |
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unvote
LOL I went upstaris for a snack and came back and saw MNO's post. I don't want mafia using me for a platform to kill another townie. I am hoping for more discussion now that MNO has claimed, I am hoping we can analize the validity of that claim. _________________ Who is John Gult? |
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Zag
Unintentionally offensive old coot
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Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2011 11:40 pm Post subject: 94 |
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The purpose was not to make you claim, it was to lynch your scummy butt.
I can't say this strongly enough: Do not ever claim until a mass claim can win the game for us. I'm not sure how you can tell that for sure, but I am quite positive that we aren't there, yet. Otherwise, a claim only helps the scum know whom to target.
Fortunately, I don't believe this claim, so I'm not concerned. |
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MNOWAX
0.999... of a Troll
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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 12:09 am Post subject: 95 |
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heh, i will ALWAYS claim when put at L-1.
every time.
every single time.
absolutely every single time.
unless of course its day one. _________________ The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX |
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Lucresia
Sheds Titles
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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 1:13 am Post subject: 96 |
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| Lifeinmomland wrote: |
| I believe he saw that UM was already set on a pretty solid path against Ctorj, and used UM to kill a townie. |
Scum buddy alert! Scum buddy alert!
UM made his own choice to hammer it yesterday. He still stands by his lynch and knew full well he was hammering. It isn't like anyone can say well UM had no idea it was at L-1 and it was all this bad MNOWAX who voted and made it L-1 and UM didn't know or anything when he accidentally hammered, even UM admitted this wasn't the case. So why are you defending him? I think your post reeks of scumminess.
I think with how day 1 went MNO's claim was probably a good idea. We don't need to lynch another townie. If he is telling the truth, which I need to investigate. I don't know the series so it might be harder to determine the characters and power roles. I'm going to look more on this character and come back with an opinion on the claim. _________________ "And All anybody knows, is you're not like them" -Elliott Smith |
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Undercover Monk
Professor Chaos
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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 1:59 am Post subject: 97 |
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| Lifeinmomland wrote: |
I think it's possible UM used Jedo introducing the idea that mafia have been caught several times on day 1 as a platform to gain our (by which I mean townies) trust. |
That would be a good theory but if you had read those games you would know I led the way in those lynches against jedos advice. Obviously this is a new game but thats why its been made a big deal of by me and jedo because it was such a huge argument in DE and Ender mafia.
Also Lucresia:
Is it at least possible momland is just acknowledging the possibility I have already mentioned. that MNO used my vote to avoid the suspicion of a hammer. That is not to say I dont stand by my hammer just that MNO used my vote. It is also possible that MNO and I are both town that jumped on a day 1 bandwagon and jedo is right that some scum werent even voting.
That being said a vanilla claim wont make me change my vote. Not yet at least. Its very easy to claim vanilla which is why Zag's no vanilla game are so difficult. So my vote will only be changed by dialogue not vanilla claims. _________________ The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning |
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raekuul
Lives under a bridge & tells stories.
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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 3:08 am Post subject: 98 |
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R> Vote Count
---
I've been re-reading Day 1, and UM feels more scummy than MNO does at this point.
Post 53 - UM Unvotes, and FoS's Ctorj, citing No Lynch Requesting as a red flag.
Post 54 - Jedo votes Ctorj, placing him at L-2.
Post 56 - MNO votes Ctorj, placing him at L-1.
Post 57 - UM Requests a freeze on Ctorj-voting. 17 Minutes have passed since Ctorj reached L-1.
Post 58 - Ctorj mounts what little defense he can at this point, votes MNO citing his weak justification for voting. 4 Hours, 39 Minutes
Post 59 - Ctorj rephrases his philosophy about lynching on day one, making it easier to understand. 4 hours, 44 Minutes
Post 60 - Quail points out that it's easier for Scum to hide among the town when people vote No Lynch, as we also have the voting record and discussion leading to the lynch to aid our future discussion. 11 hours, 9 minutes
Post 61 - Lucresia, on the whole, simply agrees with Quailman. 11 hours, 51 minutes
Post 62 - UM Hammers Ctorj knowingly, willingly, and in accordance to his earlier request that we wait until Ctorj has at least defended himself. 13 hours, 6 minutes
I find it interesting that we're largely jumping down MNO's throat for putting Ctorj at L-1, and ignoring the fact that UM never really gave him or anyone else a chance to rethink their votes between Freeze and Hammer. Vote: Undercover Monk
---
If my math is wrong, please let me know. |
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raekuul
Lives under a bridge & tells stories.
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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 3:15 am Post subject: 99 |
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To reduce the likelihood of being called a liar...
If you checked the thread between when MNO put Ctorj at L-1 and when Undercover Monk hammered, and you were voting for Ctorj, why did you not unvote? |
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Lucresia
Sheds Titles
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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 3:20 am Post subject: 100 |
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| MNOWAX wrote: |
| I am Adler. nothing more than a vanilla townie. That should sway all of you! |
Are you referring to Alder? I have not read Pendragon series but I could only find Alder as being related to Pendragon not Adler. Can you confirm if this was a typo or if this is the spelling? Also out of curiosity, have you read any of the books MNO? _________________ "And All anybody knows, is you're not like them" -Elliott Smith |
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MNOWAX
0.999... of a Troll
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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 3:37 am Post subject: 101 |
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thats a misspelling. error on my part.
I have ZERO clue on the Pendragon books. Never read them, and I have not looked at the wiki or anything of that nature. _________________ The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX |
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Zag
Unintentionally offensive old coot
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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 1:44 pm Post subject: 102 |
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| raekuul wrote: |
| If you checked the thread between when MNO put Ctorj at L-1 and when Undercover Monk hammered, and you were voting for Ctorj, why did you not unvote? |
I have to admit that I find raekuul's argument compelling. I check GL and RPoL probably 5 or 6 times a day, and I missed the chance to unvote. The last I had known, I was waiting for Ctorj to defend himself. I know I had seen UM's FOS, but I don't recall if I had seen MNO's vote or UM's call to wait for a response. I am quite sure, however, that I came back to the thread and was reading forward, I saw Ctorj's defense and thought, I disagree, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, I'll unvote, but then rip his argument to shreds. Then I continued reading and saw that it was already too late.
As I've said all along, I have UM and MNO both near the top of my suspicion list, and even a bit of suspicion that they are both guilty. raekuul has convinced me to switch over to unvote: MNO, vote: Undercover Monk. I still have doubts, because I sort of believe his "hot hand" argument. But if that were the case, he should have / would have waited a bit to let people read the Ctorj's defense and make up their own minds.
Fortunately, if we vote UM and are wrong, then I'm pretty sure that MNO and Lucresia are the scum, and we should be able to ride the info to a victory. (Not raekuul, for some reason, though I can't put my finger on why I think so. I guess because he took too bold a stand. A scum would, I think, try a subtler approach like Lucresia's was.)
If we vote UM and are right, it actually becomes trickier, because then I have no idea who the other scum is (or "who the other scum are," but I sure hope not). Certainly UM's guilt, if he's guilty, does not exonerate MNO or Lucresia (well, Lucresia a bit). If that's the case, I think that raekuul will be the only one I'll trust. |
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 5:14 pm Post subject: 103 |
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I see the logic in going after one of these more obviously scummy people first, but I still bet there is scum to be had in the non-Ctorj voters. I'll leave my vote there until I decide on Monk or MNO. So, here's my thoughts on them.
If you are really going to put all this pressure on Monk for being the hammer, you have to consider his perspective. The fact is he was already holding off on voting because it could go to a lynch really quickly, and once he heard Ctorj's defense, he didn't believe it was good enough and placed his vote. I don't think it was a quick hammer as far as those typically go. I mean, Quail had the opportunity to unvote but chose not to do so. Would he have been seen as scummy for that? I'm sure if he hadn't already voted for Ctorj, his vote would have gone on right then and he might have been the hammer. Would he have been seen as scummy for that? Monk's vote looks like it was totally based on logic, and he had already espoused that Ctorj looked scummy and was willing to vote.
My problem with Monk's vote is that I actually don't think voting No Lynch is scummy, and I don't see why he would either. I mean, Ctorj is a solid, logical player. He has his own reasons and perspective, and those have led him to believe No Lynch is a good, viable option on day 1. I (and many) of you simply disagree. To be honest, knowing how most of the players feel about No Lynch, why would a scum do that and draw all that negative attention to themself? Logically, that just doesn't make any sense. (Barring WIFOM arguments.) That's my problem with Quail's vote too. If Quail was alive, I would say both of these have to be suspected for that line of reasoning.
Now, we should all know I believe bandwagoning on day 1 to be perfectly legitimate. That was my reason for voting Ctorj as was Sentran's. (My reason was not because of "being a nemesis" as has incorrectly been cited.) I see nothing wrong with that. Unfortunately, I wasn't around to unvote before the hammer, but I'm not sure that I would have without a claim. (Mason is a pretty solid claim.) The point is I see those as legitimate votes. MNO's vote, however, looks more suspicious. I see the same thing Ctorj saw. It wasn't exactly a bandwagon declaration, though it could easily have been that. It's more the way in which he hopped over there. If he had only placed his vote, I would be equally suspicious. If he had said it was to bandwagon, I would be suspicious if he didn't post that was L-1. I think doing it without that notification to the town is irresponsible bandwagoning and anti-town at the least.
Anyway, those are my reasons for why these two candidates look scummy. I think they are about equal in their scumminess. Both of their responses today have been kind of childish finger pointing rather than solid defenses or attacks.
I really don't like MNO's claim. A vanilla townie claim always seems weak because there is no way to verify without a cop or something, and that takes time and a potentially wasted action. (Of course, that is quite possibly their actual role, but that makes it all the more difficult.) It's kind of like in Sopranos. Three of us claimed vanilla, and it was a sticky mess for the others to sort through because two of them were actually mafia. Plus, I think Alder would be a power role of some kind based on what I found on the wiki. *shrug* I guess we'll only find out the truth when he's dead or the game is over.
Personally, seeing as they are both so equally scummy, I think I would like to have a claim from Monk. If he's scum, maybe we can catch him in some sort of a lie. Otherwise, if he claims some equally weak claim, I'll try to look more closely at their posts. If nothing turns up, my vote will just go on whomever has the most votes by that point. _________________ Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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Zag
Unintentionally offensive old coot
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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 5:20 pm Post subject: 104 |
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No! Don't claim! At least, don't claim a power role (or lack of it). If you feel that claiming your name would be helpful, I think that is ok. It at least carries a little bit of weight that the scum have to risk guessing at a name that no one else has. On the other hand, Mods often give safe claims, so it doesn't really mean all that much.
But don't claim a role or vanilla. It you're telling the truth, it only helps the scum know whom to target. And it isn't as if you're going to tell the truth if you are scum. You can just claim 'vanilla townie' and it doesn't carry the tiniest bit of weight for the rest of the townies. It is informative, though, to the mafia. They've already killed our doc, don't help them further. |
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Lifeinmomland
Soccer, dance, doctor's appt. this AM.
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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 5:33 pm Post subject: 105 |
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| Undercover Monk wrote: |
| Lifeinmomland wrote: |
I think it's possible UM used Jedo introducing the idea that mafia have been caught several times on day 1 as a platform to gain our (by which I mean townies) trust. |
That would be a good theory but if you had read those games you would know I led the way in those lynches against jedos advice. Obviously this is a new game but that’s why its been made a big deal of by me and jedo because it was such a huge argument in DE and Ender mafia. |
That really addresses my point there UM. I guess I did not make myself clear, probably cause I was pissy cause the computer ate not only my post but an essay for one of my classes. Jedo brought it up,,, but YOU have pushed your agenda against no lynch based on the idea that YOU have caught scum day 1 so many times... Do you see now what I mean? In essence I suspect it is ploy "LOOK AT ME I CATCH SCUM ON DAY ONE ....... TRUST ME.... REALLY!!!"
| Quote: |
Also Lucresia:
Is it at least possible momland is just acknowledging the possibility I have already mentioned. that MNO used my vote to avoid the suspicion of a hammer. That is not to say I dont stand by my hammer just that MNO used my vote. It is also possible that MNO and I are both town that jumped on a day 1 bandwagon and jedo is right that some scum werent even voting. |
Yes, UM. I believe that MNO took a reasonable guess, which turns out to have been correct, that UM would not change his vote even after Ctorj's argument. He was padded by not being the hammer. UM is taking the heat for that, perhaps rightfully so, because in truth I believe UM and MNO are the scum here. I am wavering on where to put my vote, because as I see it is evenly balanced between OPTION 1: MNO played on UM's rather obvious inclination to lynch Ctorj, OPTION 2: UM and MNO using being at odds in public to distance themselves, or OPTION 3 UM playing on MNO's rather unorthodox playing style to point the guilt elsewhere. I am most inclined towards option 2, but I can't vote both of them... so I have to decide.
Not knowing enough about the books (I have only read the first one) makes judging that role claim very difficult. I understand that the claim could be a lie, but until I am convinced I do not want the mafia using my L-1 vote to kill him. Even if he is mafia they could still kill him to throw suspicion off the other, something I would NOT put past UM. _________________ Who is John Gult? |
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 5:34 pm Post subject: 106 |
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| Zag wrote: |
No! Don't claim! At least, don't claim a power role (or lack of it). If you feel that claiming your name would be helpful, I think that is ok. It at least carries a little bit of weight that the scum have to risk guessing at a name that no one else has. On the other hand, Mods often give safe claims, so it doesn't really mean all that much.
But don't claim a role or vanilla. It you're telling the truth, it only helps the scum know whom to target. And it isn't as if you're going to tell the truth if you are scum. You can just claim 'vanilla townie' and it doesn't carry the tiniest bit of weight for the rest of the townies. It is informative, though, to the mafia. They've already killed our doc, don't help them further. |
Ok, in my desire to decide between the two, I had overlooked giving scum information, but if we are really as close to the end as you think, we need to get this one correct. If one of these is actually scum, isn't it important to make the right choice even if it means getting a claim from Monk? You don't want to accidentally lynch cop Monk and leave scum MNO alive so we have to deal with him tomorrow (and whatever other buddies he has) or vice versa (that being vanilla townie MNO and scum Monk)? I'm usually against claims also, but I think the risk is worth it here. _________________ Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 5:37 pm Post subject: 107 |
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I think the risk is worth it here because if we catch scum today, we could potentially do our magical mass claim tomorrow and go for the win. (4-2 seems like good odds, and 5-1 are even better, depending on the setup.) _________________ Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine
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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 5:59 pm Post subject: 108 |
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That's a pretty big if still, Zag.
I have a thought, but I want to put the thought itself out there for discussion before I/we act upon it. How would people feel about posting their opinions on who a cop should investigate, and who a doctor should protect? I am not claiming to have either of those powers myself. I expect that a lot of people would want the protection for themselves, but since it is across open forum it would limit the scum's ability to swing the vote. I think it could allow a player who is waffling on the decision to see a bit of input from other players, and could create a lot of good conversation along the way.
I know we no longer have a doctor in this game, but I think it could be useful to see who people want to protect anyway. _________________ Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland |
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 7:19 pm Post subject: 109 |
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I'm generally opposed to this sort of thing (like scum lists). I think it helps the scum more than the town because the town doesn't know which people are scum. It just leads to WIFOM. This one seems a little different and might actually be more useful for town, but I'm still not sure. Could somebody pitch me an argument for why this would be beneficial for the town? _________________ Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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Lucresia
Sheds Titles
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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 7:50 pm Post subject: 110 |
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| Zag wrote: |
| A scum would, I think, try a subtler approach like Lucresia's was.) |
A subtler approach like mine? Calling out both of them, calling out lifeinmomland for defending one of them...I do not think I have been subtle at all with my play and feelings on the day 1 lynch. Just because I didn't do a recap of the time by time play, I already stated everything Raekuul wrote in his post and had the same vote. I'm confused at why you are so eager to trust rae but find me suspicious.
| Zag wrote: |
| If that's the case, I think that raekuul will be the only one I'll trust. |
I don't know how you can put your trust in someone that you don't know their role. I could see having a town read or leaning towards a possibility, but to blindly trust one of the players? I'm now starting to question if I mistook what you meant here, because normally I would think this is a scum slip but at this point I didn't have any leads on you two being scum
| Undercover Monk wrote: |
| Is it at least possible momland is just acknowledging the possibility I have already mentioned. that MNO used my vote to avoid the suspicion of a hammer. |
I tried looking at this from mom's point of view again and after she re-explained it, I agree. It is very possible that MNO thought you wouldn't realize he was at L-1 and would make you look like the person who through the hammer. However the fact that you did end the game and did know it and didn't let anyone else really reconsider their vote is what makes me think you are scum.
| Jedo wrote: |
| I think the risk is worth it here because if we catch scum today, we could potentially do our magical mass claim tomorrow and go for the win. (4-2 seems like good odds, and 5-1 are even better, depending on the setup.) |
I agree, I want to hear a claim from Monk.[/quote] _________________ "And All anybody knows, is you're not like them" -Elliott Smith |
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Zag
Unintentionally offensive old coot
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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 8:32 pm Post subject: 111 |
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| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| I think the risk is worth it here because if we catch scum today, we could potentially do our magical mass claim tomorrow and go for the win. (4-2 seems like good odds, and 5-1 are even better, depending on the setup.) |
I agree we should do anything we can to catch a scum today. My point is NOT: A claim could help us but it helps the scum more. If I thought that, I would at least think that asking for a claim might be worth it. My point is this:
A claim helps us not at all, and it helps the scum.
What did MNO's claim tell the townies? That either he is a vanilla townie or he is a scum claiming to be a vanilla townie. In other words, it told us nothing useful.
What did MNO's claim tell the scum (assuming it was genuine, which, of course, they would know)? It told them to find a better night-kill target than MNO, because he is just vanilla.
(Sorry for the excessive use of bold. ) |
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Zag
Unintentionally offensive old coot
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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 8:51 pm Post subject: 112 |
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| Lucresia wrote: |
| Zag wrote: |
| If that's the case, I think that raekuul will be the only one I'll trust. |
I don't know how you can put your trust in someone that you don't know their role. I could see having a town read or leaning towards a possibility, but to blindly trust one of the players? I'm now starting to question if I mistook what you meant here, because normally I would think this is a scum slip but at this point I didn't have any leads on you two being scum |
What I said was that IF we lynch UMonk AND he turns out to be scum, then I will trust raekuul. Not blindly -- I don't trust anybody blindly. But rae brought up a really good point -- one which I hadn't considered -- that was damning to UM. While I believe that raekuul might, as a scum, throw his partner under a bus, he probably wouldn't go so far as to bring up new evidence that had otherwise gone unnoticed. That's not throwing someone under the bus, that's organizing a hit squad; one scum wouldn't bother to do that to his scum buddy.
My accusation of you is primarily if UM turns out to be innocent. The more I think about it, the more I doubt that's the case, so I don't think you have to worry. Him being guilty doesn't clear you -- what you said about him could easily have been bussing -- but it means I have no evidence against you, either. In fact, while I'll be pleased if we lynch UM and he turns out guilty, it will leave me in a quandry, with no real suspects at all for the remaining scum. (Well, MNO is always worth suspecting, but that's like an axiom in all Mafia games.) |
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 8:53 pm Post subject: 113 |
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Well, if I'm not getting a claim from Monk, I have to land my vote on MNO. Of his four posts yesterday (not including the confirm), they all had votes in them and not much else. Then today, he comes out guns slinging and raking Monk over the coals. Like I said, Monk isn't totally clean, but he's not guilty for what MNO put him up for (the hammer). Plus, MNO claims he would have removed his vote on Ctorj if he had only a little more time. What for? What was Ctorj's compelling argument to bring this about? It seems like just another reason to move his vote again. Then, where would he have moved it to? Was someone else appearing overly scummy? At least I can say of Monk that he was using logic and sticking with it, and I believe he allowed enough time. It's just unfortunate he was wrong.
unvote, vote: MNOWAX _________________ Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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Lifeinmomland
Soccer, dance, doctor's appt. this AM.
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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 9:12 pm Post subject: 114 |
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Um. You are nuts if you think I defended one of them. I will put it in ANOTHER way and see if you get it. I believe that UM KNEW Ctorj was at L1 is the starting point you are missing. I NEVER said that UM didn't know what he was doing. I NEVER said that UM didn't do it on purpose. I SAID ....
| Lifeinmomland wrote: |
I think MNO places his vote where and when he did with targeted intent. I believe he saw that UM was already set on a pretty solid path against Ctorj, and used UM to kill a townie. |
MNO believed UM would not change his mind IMHO. He left his vote in place BECASUE he is scum and believed he KNEW that UM was set on a path that he did not believe Ctorj could dissuade UM from voting him.
Here is my hang up. MNO has claimed a role. A unverifiable role. Supposedly a townie. The night kill left us with no info, except a so murky WIFOM allusion to Luc, that it is PROBALLY unreliable. So the possibility that MNO ISN'T lying has me in a quandary.
So either MNO left his vote there believing UM would do his dirty work or UM and MNO are both scum. I am inclined to the latter. _________________ Who is John Gult? |
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MNOWAX
0.999... of a Troll
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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 9:19 pm Post subject: 115 |
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| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
Well, if I'm not getting a claim from Monk, I have to land my vote on MNO. Of his four posts yesterday (not including the confirm), they all had votes in them and not much else. Then today, he comes out guns slinging and raking Monk over the coals. Like I said, Monk isn't totally clean, but he's not guilty for what MNO put him up for (the hammer). Plus, MNO claims he would have removed his vote on Ctorj if he had only a little more time. What for? What was Ctorj's compelling argument to bring this about? It seems like just another reason to move his vote again. Then, where would he have moved it to? Was someone else appearing overly scummy? At least I can say of Monk that he was using logic and sticking with it, and I believe he allowed enough time. It's just unfortunate he was wrong.
unvote, vote: MNOWAX |
well we certainly know who at least one other scum is....
How can you say with a straight face that Monk left enough time for someone else to unvote? ARE YOU KIDDING ME?
Monk's first, but you, sir, are next. _________________ The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX |
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 9:33 pm Post subject: 116 |
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I can say that because it was a good eight hours, and Quail definitely had the opportunity to unvote since he actually posted. It's unfortunate Quail's already dead otherwise we could be having this conversation and see how scummy you guys would view him for not unvoting when he had the chance.
I mean, I still don't understand. It's scummy of Monk to drop the hammer on someone he legitimately believed was doing something scummy and of which he had previously made mention? Really? Um, who led a lynch on a doctor last game (Ctorj, incidentally) and was totally town? THIS GUY! That's clearly not the only thing at issue here.
Is there anything else in that bolded section with which you have a problem, or is that all? _________________ Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 9:34 pm Post subject: 117 |
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Also, by the way, you have no rebuttal for my questions? I know they are somewhat rhetorical, but if you want to help yourself, you could at least address the issue raised by them. _________________ Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine
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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 10:41 pm Post subject: 118 |
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| Zag wrote: |
What I said was that IF we lynch UMonk AND he turns out to be scum, then I will trust raekuul.
My accusation of you is primarily if UM turns out to be innocent. |
So if UM is scum, you will trust Rae, and if he's innocent, you'll distrust Lucresia. It sounds as if Rae is in your good boks and Lucresia's in your bad books no matter what happens. Please explain if I missed something there.
To Jedo: the only benefit I really see for the town by stating who they would protect and/or investigate is information. In retrospect it may be a bad idea, since it will give the scum a direction to try to direct the lynches. I'm undecided whether that possibility outweighs the information to be gained by announcing our suspicions. Also, assuming we have a cop in this game, it might give him (or her) more of a direction by the nature of the suspicions. In this game, how something is said is frequently more telling than what is said. _________________ Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland |
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Zag
Unintentionally offensive old coot
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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 11:20 pm Post subject: 119 |
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| Sentran wrote: |
| Zag wrote: |
What I said was that IF we lynch UMonk AND he turns out to be scum, then I will trust raekuul.
My accusation of you is primarily if UM turns out to be innocent. |
So if UM is scum, you will trust Rae, and if he's innocent, you'll distrust Lucresia. It sounds as if Rae is in your good boks and Lucresia's in your bad books no matter what happens. Please explain if I missed something there. |
Heads, I win; Tails, you lose! Yay!
Not really. It's more like this:
if UM is scum: rae is trustworthy and I am neutral towards Lucresia.
If UM is innocent: both MNO and Lucresia are scum, and I am neutral towards rae.
In neither case am I neutral towards MNO, but I am POSITIVE he is scum if UM isn't. I only suspect it if UM is.
In the second case, it really means that I am trusting everyone except MNO and Lucresia, because if those two are scum and a third person is as well, then the game ends in a Mafia victory as soon as we lynch UM (that is, if he is innocent). However, I believe that UM is probably guilty, and I believe that there are only 2 scum; though that second one is more a hope than a belief. However, for any scenario in which today's lynch is incorrect, we might as well assume that there are only two scum because the game will already be over if there are three, and further analysis won't matter. |
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raekuul
Lives under a bridge & tells stories.
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Posted: Wed Apr 06, 2011 12:41 am Post subject: 120 |
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As much as I want to say "Zag is right, don't question him", Sentran raises a very valid point. We literally can't trust anyone yet.
Zag: Why Lucresia if UM comes up town, specifically? |
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