True Blood Mafia GAME OVER

[Sentran]

Well crap, I roleblocked someone last night, so one of the following must be true:

1. I blocked the wrong person. (possible, my targetting has been so-so thus far)
2. There are more than one mafia member left. (possible, but not likely)
3. Blocking does not stop the mafia kill. (quite possible)
4. Silverfire killed Undercover Monk. (care to confirm/deny?)

I have my suspicions, but I'm waiting for others to chime in before I place a vote.
_________________
Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Sentran]

DOUBLE POST!

Either our infallible mod made a mistake, or Spyrl has just been found to be lying. Spyrl claimed Tara Thornton, and UM was just killed and revealed as Tara Thornton.

For those playing at home...

ALIVE
1. Zag: Andy Bellefleur, Not a Very Good Cop
2. itisally: Hoyt Fortenberry, Vanilla Townie
3. sentran: Sam Merlotte, Town Roleblocker
4. durryn: Jason Stackhouse, Tracker
5. Lucresia: _____, Reporter
6. silverfire Bill Compton, Vigilante
7. spyrl: Tara Thornton, Mason

DEAD
1. bgg1996 - Pam (mafia goon) lynched day 1
2. quailman - sookie stackhouse (doctor) killed night 2
3. ctorj - jessica hamby (townie) killed night 2
4. mnowax - franklin mott (mafia roleblocker) lynched day 3
5. jedo the jedi - terry bellefluer (cop) killed night 3
6. raekuul - alcide herveaux (redirector) lynched day 4
7. undercover monk - tara thornton (mason) killed night 4
_________________
Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Silverfire]

I did not kill last night.

If we assume that spyrl was lying, that means that UM was also lying. He claimed Lafayette Reynolds, and we know that he was town.

[Sentran]

I find it strange that they would lie about that. Perhaps their role post was a bit confusing and they claimed each others' names?
_________________
Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Zag]

I agree, this seems like a dumb thing for UM (at least) to have lied about.

Spyrl, do you care to clear this up?

Mod, any chance you accidentally reported the wrong mason dying? Or that you accidentally gave them both the same name? (Copy-paste of role messages and then forgot to swap names, perhaps?)

I had been assuming that UM and Spyrl were both cleared, which I thought was confirmed when I saw the morning report. I didn't even catch the name mixup until you pointed it out. I'm still prepared to consider Spyrl cleared, I guess, because I can't see the cross claim by UM as being anything other than an accident.

[spyrl]

[Sentran]

Oh crap...

Spyrl, please refer to rule #3.
_________________
Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[spyrl]

Gack! Well, I'll blame that one on trying to clear up the name mix up. Until we get confirmation one way or the other, mum's my word.
_________________
"And all those exclamation marks, you notice? Five? A sure sign of someone who wears his underpants on his head." Terry Pratchett, Maskerade
Discworld Mafia is here!

[raekuul]

fades as the Shadow of Kafinex passes over... wait, this isn't that game...

[Sentran]

If sniklac made the mistake, I'm hoping that he'll give the new player the benefit of the doubt and not mod-strike her.
_________________
Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Sniklac16]

I have undercover monk written down in my notes as Tara Thornton and spyrl as someone else...however since spyrl quoted directly from her role message as tara than obviously I did make a mistake somewhere along the lines so I will overlook the rule breaking just this once
_________________
What lies behind us and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.

[itisally]

So to be clear... UM is dead and should have been saying he was Tara.
Spyrl is alive and has an unknowen name that Snick will clarify with her?

Sentran's handy chart should read like: ( I put the change in italics)

[Sentran]

I'm going with that thought, and Spyrl is completely cleared in my eyes.

Vote: Lucresia
She's been lurking too much for my tastes and is the only one that has not supplied a name.
_________________
Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[itisally]

OK here is my handy little chart. It looks much nicer in excel though. Concider the top row headings

Player, Role Name, Role, Night 1, Night 2, Night 3, Night 4
1. Zag (Lynched and lives Day 2), Andy Bellefleur, random results cop, ????, ????, ????, ????
2. itisally, Hoyt, Townie, none, none, none, none
3. sentran, Sam Melotte, T. Roleblocker, Block Zag, Block Ctorj, Block UM, ????
4. undercover monk, ?Tara?, Mason, none, none, none, none
5. durryn, Jason Stackhouse, Tracker, Sentran (to Zag), Quail (to Sentran), Ally (home), ????
6. Lucresia, ????, reporter, Quail (out), Forgot!, Not telling?, ????
7. silverfire, Bill Compton, Vigilante, none, Quail (Dead), none, none,
8. spyrl, ?Laffeytte?, Mason, none, none, none, none
1. bgg1996, Pam, Goon, Dead, Dead, Dead, Dead
2. quailman, Sookie, Doctor, ????, Protect Sentran?, dead, dead
3. ctorj, Jessica Hamby, Townie, None, none, dead, dead
4. mnowax , Franklin Mott, M. Roleblocker, ????, ????, Dead, Dead
5. jedo the jedi, Terry Bellefluer, Cop, Zag (innocent), No result, dead, dead
6. raekuul, Alcid Herveaux, Redirector, MNO to Zag, Jedo to Reakuul, Jedo to Zag, Dead

To me it looks like everyone's stories check out. I guess we won't get that lucky twice. I am not sure about Lucresia, But i can't fine a reason to not belive it just seems awfully secretive to me. Zag's list is frustrating too, but because his results are random (if his claim is true) I am not sure that I even want to know.
_________________
I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong.

[spyrl]

Thank you for not smiting me, o mighty one. =)

And this because I'm a visual person: =^_^=

_________________
"And all those exclamation marks, you notice? Five? A sure sign of someone who wears his underpants on his head." Terry Pratchett, Maskerade
Discworld Mafia is here!

[Zag]

A nice summary, ally. You might want to include for MNO's first night that he was redirected to me. (I realize that you show that in raekuul's result, but both might be clearer.)

Also, Quailman said -- or at least strongly implied -- that he protected spyrl on night 1 (post 254). He obviously believed that was why there was no kill that night. BTW, this is further evidence of spyrl's innocence, if anyone needed more.

Finally, you show UM as being among the living.

Sigh. It's probably time for another voting recap, with all the new info filled in. I don't have time right now, but I'll try to get to it tonight. For now, here's my rundown on everybody, roughly in order of cleared to suspected (IMHO)

------------------

Me: I was cleared by our cop from his investigation on a night when I was doubly-role-blocked (if you believe Sentran) or at least singly role-blocked by MNO being redirected to me.

spyrl: Cleared by her mason buddy, whose identity is confirmed. (I'm hoping the mod will fess up to being the reason for name confusion.)

silverfire: There is the dead doc to confirm her claim. Or, she could be the most patient and deceptive serial killer ever, but I doubt it. (If she is, she deserves to win.)

durryn: Was the first to claim, and his report of tracking Sentran was confirmed. Of course, if the scum were given safe claims by the mods, then this doesn't really mean anything, especially if Sentran is also scum.

itisally: If you believe durryn, then she didn't go anywhere the night that Jedo was killed (which was after bgg and MNO were both dead). If there were only three scum originally, then this assures she is innocent. If there were four, then she still could be, but it's at least some sort of indication.

Sentran: I was ready to confirm that I was role-blocked on night 1, verifying his claim, but then we learned that raekuul redirected MNO to me. (I originally wasn't even positive that I had been role-blocked. I considered that "no result" might be one of the random results that I could receive.) Anyway, he claimed it before he knew that I wouldn't be able to invalidate it, so it does carry some weight. (Unless the scum somehow know about MNO being redirected. I don't think you get informed, but maybe...)

Lucresia: Claim has been impressively unverifiable. Also, she originally brought up the info that nearly got Quail lynched (and did get him vig'ed, if you believe silver).

------------------

I don't see anyone as over 50%, though. I would support a lynch of either, I guess, but I wish I felt more strongly about it. Here's what I would expect to learn:

Lynch Sentran:
- If he's guilty (and the game doesn't end), then durryn seems the mostly likely choice for his buddy (since his alibi just went out the window).
- If he's innocent, then this pretty much clears durryn, so we are left with Lucresia and maybe itisally.

Lynch Lucresia:
- If she's guilty (and the game doesn't end), then Sentran or itisally must be her buddy.
- If she's innocent, then I suspect Sentran, and if he has a buddy it's probably durryn

I think that we learn a little more if we lynch Sentran and it turns out to be wrong. However, if you buy into any of these scenarios and silverfire really is a serial killer, it guarantees her the win.

[Durryn]

Silverfire didn't leave her house last night.


Beyond that, no clue
_________________
If there's anything around here more important than my ego, I want it caught and shot now! - Zaphod Beeblebrox

[Sentran]

I've changed my mind on who to go after. I have it narrowed down to 2 strong suspects, and one appears to be the scummier option to me.
Unvote, Vote: Zag
Everything that I've claimed, while not directly able to be verified, at least fits with what others have stated. Although Andy Bellefleur is indeed a cop in the series, Terry Bellefleur is not, and I believe that one of those could have been given as a safe claim.

Point 1: On night 1 I blocked Zag, and there was no night kill. On night 4 I blocked Lucresia, and we still had a night kill.
Point 2: The GF is still out there. Even the the cop cleared Zag on night 1, the GF is usually immune to investigation.
Point 3: With the exception of his one-time kill immunity, Zag's powers have also been unverifiable. Durryn has not tried following him yet, assuming him to have been cleared by Jedo.

So, what do you have to say for yourself, Eric Northman?
_________________
Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Zag]

Thanks for clearing that up, Sentran.

[Sentran]

My comment on the fact that Jedo should NOT have been a cop and Andy SHOULD was actually a polite questioning of the Mod, who has already made mistakes in his own notes at least once. Speaking of which, can Snik check his outbox to confirm what roles he sent to whom?

You know what? Never mind. It does not matter which of Tara and Lafayette he sent to whom. What matters is that the town kill off the scum. Let me tell you how this will play out if I am lynched today: I will show up as innocent and my claim will be verified. At that point, Zag's already set up the night kill to be Durryn so that he can not track Zag (post 416). Then Zag will press for a lynch of Lucresia on Day 6, allowing him to kill off Silver that night. Unless the remaining few wise up to his BS, he will pit them against each other one at a time and end up winning.
_________________
Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Zag]

That would be brilliant if it were true. I'd like to think I'm that clever. I nearly won the Death Eaters game with just such a strategy.

Of course, now you've informed your scum buddy whom to kill tonight to set me up. Don't you think Lucresia could have figured it out on her own? Or maybe you're just throwing us off the scent of your real buddy, Durryn. Or are you this desperate because you're the only one left?

[Sentran]

BUMP for lack of posts from other players.
Note: Everybody living has chimed in since day began, except for Lucresia.
I'd like some input from the (nearly) silent masses as well. Don't let Zag dominate this game and lead you all down the wrong path.
_________________
Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Durryn]

I have been reading and rereading the posts all morning. So far I have learned:

reading is hard to do at 0400
headaches start at 0500
still no answers who to vote for at 0530
A coke and PB&J helps at 0600
Headaches come back at 0630
Children want to watch TV and are confused by "No" at 0645
Children are asleep again by 0730 without TV
Everyone starts looking like Scum about 0800
Caffeine corrects that at 0815
still no answers at 0930

Following your (to use Zags accusation) possible scum buddy (if you are scum Sentran I am gonna be sooo upset) into another lynch happens at about 0950


Vote: Zag
_________________
If there's anything around here more important than my ego, I want it caught and shot now! - Zaphod Beeblebrox

[Zag]

Don't let Sentran dominate this game and lead you down the wrong path.

As the only other person who has actually been cleared by another player, I'm kind of stunned, Durryn, that you are falling for his line of baloney.

[Durryn]

You and Sentran are still at the top of my list, based on gut...... Plus following Sentrans lead starts people talking.

Knowing that I will be dead before day 6 (I don't expect to survive night 5) leaves me with VERY few options. Here is my ACTUAL list

Sentran: Too good a claim -Solid Town (feels wrong)

Zag: Decent claim, survived lynch in suspicious way. - scum/town 50/50 {#2}

Itisally: Didn't leave her house, someone dies, Silver claims no hunt -Solid Town (could be GF) {#3}

Lucresia: I want to believe she is Town -Tentative Town {#4}

Silverfire: Bloodsucking Vamp........Town/Vig ????? (no cop, can't validate) {#1}

Spyrl: verified Mason -Solid Town

Durryn(me): I know I am town -Solid Town

So the people still worrying me are Silverfire, Lucresia, Zag, and Itisally.

I really want to believe you Zag...... But the way you survived leaves the hair on my neck standing up. If anyone should have survived the way you did, it should have been Sookie, not Andy. With no-one voting for my #1choice. I am going with #2, you.
_________________
If there's anything around here more important than my ego, I want it caught and shot now! - Zaphod Beeblebrox

[Sentran]

[Zag]

[Zag]

[Sentran]

My apologies, I had not looked to before MNO's claim (trying to rush through a post at work). Still, compare that record with me voting for BOTH confirmed scum this way, and it's a tough argument that anyone would be that willing to bus their buddies. I'm just not that ballsy.
_________________
Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Zag]

It's a tougher argument that someone would actually point out his buddy's mistake. If I were scum, I would have been very quiet and hoped no one else noticed.

In spite of the OMGUS factor, oddly enough I am getting a townie vibe from your whole approach this day. Mostly, if you were scum, you would probably have tried to convince me to join you in going after Lucresia, since I had her with you at the top of my suspicion list. Unless, of course, she's your scum buddy and your vote earlier was just distancing, but it's awfully late for that.

I'm willing to accept that your lie about me was an honest mistake. It's one that I don't think you would have done if you were scum, because it is too easily denied. Possibly if you said it as you put me at L-1, hoping someone else would buy it and hammer before I had a chance to reply, then I would be more suspicious. As it is, it isn't anything you'd do as a ploy, and I suspect that you would have noticed me starting the attack on MNO after his gaff, if he were your scum buddy.

So, I'm going to go out on a limb, here, and support your original play from earlier this day. Unvote, vote: Lucresia

[Sentran]

I honestly think that Zag is clever enough to play out this gambit to its conclusion, but I have also been getting a strong scummy vibe from Lucresia for a while now. Her continued silence after a reminder of the game rings falsely of someone who is lurking and hoping she is overlooked. In the interest of furthering the game, and not letting this devolve into an argument between Zag and I, Unvote, Vote: Lucresia.

If she turns out to be innocent, Zag is definitely on my short list of suspects.
_________________
Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[itisally]

Day 1 final vote:
bgg <-- Durryn, Jedo, Sentran, Lucresia, spyrl, Durryn, MNO, Quailman, Ctorj

Day 2 Final Vote:But Zag lives (as he said he would)
Zag <-- UM, Quailman, Ctorj, Jedo, Sentran, Durryn, raekuul

I can’t read too much into this, because if Zag was scum, mafia would have known that it was a safe place to vote and everyone eles just blends in. If he isn’t then it was safe for them to vote because it was a reasonable and agreed on test. Zag presumes that because Jedo proposed lynching him to test his claim. The rest of the votes for him (except, perhaps, Sentran's) are artificial. I am not sure I agree.

Day 3 Final Vote:
MNO <-- Zag, UM, Durryn, Sentran, Jedo, Silverfire, Spyrl,

Again it is hard to anialize the votes on this because MNO messed up so bad, order means nothing, there were no unvotes to look at. It was just a matter of the order people logged in. Honestly I would look at the second half of voters as suspect because it was an easy vote to hide in.

Day 4 Final Vote:
Raekuul <--; Zag, Sentran, itisally, UM, Durryn

Sentran was on bbg early, but MNO’s Lynch has little to offer as proof of townieness (is that a word?). In fact Sentran has been on every Lynch so far. Therefore townie or scum he is there. What does that tell me about his voting. Sentran votes for Zag everyday. He has accused him of being the Maenad and Eric Northman. It seems to me that this is more like Scum trying to get rid of a formidable opponent than good hunting. Is he reading through to find reasons to accuse the innocent?

Zag on the other hand wasn’t on the bgg vote and said “ Mostly, I thought that a lot of the bandwagon against him was based on the whole "we can't all be scum" pronoun argument, which I thought didn't have merit. I still don't think so. “ He told us he would live and he did, it was honest about something. He always posts a lot and that sometimes makes me feel like WIFOM. But I can’t find any lies. There also seemed to be a real connection between him and Jedo, who came up town.

That leads me to Lucresia. I agree with Sentran and Zag on this one point, too quiet, too long. Even with reminders, even with us all having her in our sights. I am all for getting that out of the way.
Vote:Lucresia
_________________
I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong.

[spyrl]

Maybe it's just a full schedule, but I also have been finding Lucresia's silence over the last few days to be suspicious. I want to at least hear what they have to say before we lynch, maybe comment on who she 'reported' on last night?
_________________
"And all those exclamation marks, you notice? Five? A sure sign of someone who wears his underpants on his head." Terry Pratchett, Maskerade
Discworld Mafia is here!

[Sentran]

One day I will point back to this game, in which several people found me vaguely scummy or at least had uneasy feelings about me, and tell you all "I told you I was innocent!" Probably shortly after my lynch.
_________________
Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[itisally]

Well hopefully (if she is town) L-1 will get her attention. I am all for hearing from her, but we are headed into the weekend and there is notoriously less action.

Back to Sentran VS. Zag while we wait?

But seriously is ridiculous to watch their tennis match of words. My luck they are bot innocent. Anyone else have an opinion on them?
_________________
I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong.

[Durryn]

unvote
_________________
If there's anything around here more important than my ego, I want it caught and shot now! - Zaphod Beeblebrox

[Sniklac16]

VOTE COUNT: (4 to lynch)

Lucresia (3) zag, sentran, itisally

not voting: lucresia, durryn, silverfire, spyrl
_________________
What lies behind us and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.

[Lucresia]

Vote: Zag

He was my night 3 choice and I got no result. I am pretty confident still that he is Godfather. My character's name is Arlene Fowler and as I have already stated, I am a reporter. I don't know True Blood very well at all and wanted to make sure Durryn didn't claim my role name (since he has what I feel to be a very similar role). If Durryn would have claimed my name, then I would have known for sure one scum.[/b]
_________________
"And All anybody knows, is you're not like them" -Elliott Smith

[Silverfire]

I really have no idea who to believe. I have heard of both "one-shot kill immunity" and "cop immunity" being considered godfather powers, but on the other hand I think it might be foolhardy to vote for someone who not only has been cleared by the known cop, but who has proven his claim (at least partially). Zag's posts have seemed off lately. His accusations have been very much in reaction to others accusing him, rather than based on logic as his arguments usually are. I don't think it's typical for him to outright say another player is scum, as he did in post 421. If Zag is mafia, he's probably the last one, since two powerful abilities on a godfather, along with a roleblocker, is pretty powerful.

Also high on my suspicion list is Lucresia. It's a little suspicious that Lucresia held back her role name until all other names had been revealed, but on the other hand, she does give a good justification for it. On top of that, though, she doesn't have much information about her night choices at all, despite being an information-gathering role.

[Durryn]

Vote Lucresia
_________________
If there's anything around here more important than my ego, I want it caught and shot now! - Zaphod Beeblebrox