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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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 Posted: Thu Apr 19, 2012 1:52 am Post subject: 1481 |
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| Zag wrote: |
| Jedo, while I think it makes sense to think about confirming the potentially-flawed info from ohcapt, I think your approach is nutty. The percentage play is to assume that the known (non-standard) investigator had good rather than bad information, and try confirming his info by lynching someone he accused. |
Why? We've already shown that there are at least a handful of other options. The way I see it, we're trying to break-up/confirm certain groupings we see. Examine these:
1) itisally/Aniima (directly tied by their own admission)
2) Zag/MNO (directly tied because of supposed role powers)**
3) Jedo/Durryn/cloudrunner (intimately wound because of arguing)
Those are the main clumps I see have formed. Let's admit, we aren't sure about Aniima and ally. At least some people think they might be pulling a scum gambit. I can say the same for you and MNO. In both couples, there is at least some way to understand them independently, but I think it would be one-way. (I may have mis-remembered the ally/Aniima connection.) With the third group, it is speculation based on possible distancing (the weakest, in my opinion).
There is at least one person in each group who is probable for having been investigated by ohcapt. I think lynching Durryn (whom I find scummy independently of ohcapt's supposed results) will yield the best information. It gives us some perspective on the threesome and could tell us something about at least one person in the other two groups, and by proxy, yet another person.
Now, I'm not a percentages person, but that seems like a pretty good deal to me. I see no reason to assume automatically that ohcapt was a standard cop with good results. Since we have already lost one other "non-standard investigator," I think the likelihood that ohcapt's results are in some way screwy goes up. (Plus, by lynching the person in the group of two, we set ourselves up to make only one corrective lynch if necessary. If we lynch Aniima and decide ohcapt's results were opposite, we have to lynch two more people before we get it correct. I don't think the town can afford to make three lynches like that.)
Anyway, that's what I'm seeing right now. We're clearly divided on who seems scummy, and both people are on ohcapt's results list. What's more, they were both scummy looking BEFORE ohcapt shared those results.
**Let's face it, this could be a gambit just as much as ally/Aniima. I find it shocking nobody has come forward with some information about this yet. Maybe silence suggests the person who can confirm found it to be true. Maybe ohcapt's results was that confirmation. I don't know. You must be rubbing off on me Zag and making me uber-suspicious. 
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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| Posted: Thu Apr 19, 2012 1:58 am Post subject: 1482 |
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I remembered something else just after I hit submit...
You guys have apparently forgotten (or never knew) where these phrases came from. Similar to my explanation of bandwagoning earlier, OMGUS has to do with voting someone who has voted you for the sole reason of them voting you.
Person A: vote Person B for at least a semi-legitimate reason.
Person B: OMGUS vote Person A because they voted me.
The OMGUS vote is not supported by a legitimate, scum-hunting reason, and it is typically seen on Day 1 (just like bandwagoning). Now, sometimes a vote will look like OMGUS because the reason given was flimsy, and that's where people try to pin that person as scum. I feel like we are throwing these phrases around a little much.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine
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| Posted: Thu Apr 19, 2012 2:26 am Post subject: 1483 |
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Day 5, 11 alive, 6 to lynch
Current Vote Count
| Code: |
Jedo the Jedi (2): Durryn, spyrl
Durryn (1): Jedo the Jedi
Captin Aniima (1): Zag
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Not voting (7): 3iff, Captin Aniima, cloudRunner, itisally, MNOWAX, Silverfire, Undercover Monk |
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland
Last edited by Sentran on Thu Apr 19, 2012 5:22 am; edited 1 time in total |
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itisally
Master of Disguise
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| Posted: Thu Apr 19, 2012 3:20 am Post subject: 1484 |
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| Jedo the Jedi. wrote: |
| I don't think I'm jumping at shadows, and Monk, cloudrunner, and myself are not having a collective hallucination. |
and yet the rest of us seem to have been every other day. But I am not ready to asume that his results are backwards
I admit that Ohcapt flipping town causes me to reevaluate my assumptions. I have obviously gone awry somewhere.
And while you want Durryn to prove that he is innocent I want you, Monk and CloudRunner to prove to me that he is guilty. Really, convince me! I have told you why I think he is town... How about you counter my arguments and we can put the burden of proof on you guys. You want the swing voters to join your wagon? Make it convincing.
I was starting with Spyrl because I had been running with a null on her but the quality of her posts has been troublesome to me. However, she does have some points on occasion (as any good scum would). She has never been a big talker or voter so I am not sure how that plays in mind. I am hoping to get people talking about her so I can compare reactions.
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I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong. |
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Durryn
Doghouse Dweller
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| Posted: Thu Apr 19, 2012 3:36 am Post subject: 1485 |
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Garou had "special information" from the "little birds" which gave him insight we didn't have access to until he shared it. Which in turn means he had longer to mull it over and look for the patterns involved. Knowing him to have an analytical mind, I am moved to believe him.
OhCapt just posted his feelings not any of his investigations. If he was a tracker, of course he would clear me. I never go anywhere.
I believe, and will until the end of this game, that Itisally and Captain A are town. As such I will defend both of them.
As for my read on Spyrl, I have nothing. She has played very much in keeping with her personality and could be scum as easily as town.
After reading and rereading the post everyone has made, I can't come to much more conclusion than Jedo, UM, Cloud, and Biff as suspects as scum.
I am getting very tired of being dragged back out of my rooms and into the light. These actions against me do not help us find the scum.
I have been considering making a full claim just to get people off of me, but have held off in hopes that people would see the error of chasing me and pick someone who has yet to be "put to the question".
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If there's anything around here more important than my ego, I want it caught and shot now! - Zaphod Beeblebrox |
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3iff
very unbifflike
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| Posted: Thu Apr 19, 2012 7:37 am Post subject: 1486 |
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itisally, post 1476: Well, I'm glad I make someone laugh. The point was that we cannot necessarily believe how we think roles were set up. Ohcapt13 was an investigator but as he shared nothing until after his death, we have no way to know exactly what he did and whether his findings (or opinions) are valid.
Garou nightpost 1440: His 'last post' suggests that itisally is Tyrion Lannister and Captin Aniima is Lady Stark. I'm presuming Garou was confident about those identities. So, do these characters have a link between them such that they would be likely to know the other's alignment? In fact, these two are the ONLY people to have a name associated with them in the list at the end of the post. I'm not sure what to make of that. |
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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| Posted: Thu Apr 19, 2012 12:23 pm Post subject: 1487 |
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| itisally wrote: |
I admit that Ohcapt flipping town causes me to reevaluate my assumptions. I have obviously gone awry somewhere.
And while you want Durryn to prove that he is innocent I want you, Monk and CloudRunner to prove to me that he is guilty. Really, convince me! I have told you why I think he is town... How about you counter my arguments and we can put the burden of proof on you guys. You want the swing voters to join your wagon? Make it convincing. |
It's about time you reevaluate your assumptions. I am pretty sure everybody else here believes a person to be scum whom you are confident is town (Durryn, Aniima, and until recently, spyrl). You should really ask yourself who is likely to be wrong there, especially since there are probably three scum left. (Which, now that I think about it, is a really big deal!) What's more, this causes me to bump you up my scumdar again.
I will go back and prove Durryn guilty by countering your arguments later today. I think I have done that some, but I'll try to scour your posts really well. Again, though, I'm going to argue that scum lynches are typically the harder to string up, and Durryn's has gone nowhere everytime I've tried.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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Undercover Monk
Professor Chaos
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| Posted: Thu Apr 19, 2012 2:11 pm Post subject: 1488 |
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I know this post is going to drive some of you insane but I really dont know what to think. Believe it or not I was very confident of a ohcap and jedo scum team. There are too many innocents to trust anyone. supposedly Zag, MNO, ally, animala, silver are supposedly innocent. thats almost half of the town and if there isnt at least one lying scum in that group I would be genuinely surprised. Ohcapts results point to this being a very real possibility. So I actually have to agree with Jedo (surprisingly) on this one. Durryn will give us a lot of info and he did have a small bandwagon on him yesterday.
If someone has a better plan Im willing to hear it but once again this town is stagnant =(
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning |
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itisally
Master of Disguise
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| Posted: Thu Apr 19, 2012 3:15 pm Post subject: 1489 |
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While I agree we have a large contingency of people who have someone else to cover them, we still have a lot who don't. There may be one scum in the that (Ally, Aniima, Zag, MNO, Silver) group, but that leaves 2-3 in the rest of the people left (Jedo, UM, Cloudrunner, Spyrl, Biff, Durryn). So I am still more likely to catch scum if I choose from the second group. The problem with voting for Durryn is that I am not seeing what you see. That makes Spyrl a better vote for me, from there I might look at Biff because I don't really have a read on him. I have gone back and forth on Cloudrunner, but he seems to be scum hunting ( a scum tell if I ever saw one lol). And the rest will have to wait I have to go.
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I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong. |
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Zag
Tired of his old title
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| Posted: Thu Apr 19, 2012 5:14 pm Post subject: 1490 |
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| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| I will go back and prove Durryn guilty ... |
If you do that then I'll join you and vote for him. I suspect, however, that what I consider proof is a whole lot more stringent than what you consider proof. You might try again to prove the existence of God, while you're at it -- you've seen how I easily influenced I was there (that is, not very). (I'm kidding! Please, please, PLEASE, nobody start a theological discussion here!)
I'm more inclined to go along with itisally and vote spyrl than to join you in voting someone that our (questionable) investigator cleared.
On the other hand, itisally, I'm kind of surprised you aren't more willing to ignore ohcapt's results, since they shed a rather unfavorable light on you. Could it be that you are against doing anything that tests his results because you know that they are accurate?
(Back to Jedo): OK. Since writing the above, I made an ISO of your posts and I see that you actually do have some evidence against Durryn. A lot of it I chose to ignore when you first brought it up, because it seemed a bit flimsy, but in total, it does start to add up.
One thing struck me, silverfire, a lot of Jedo's early discussion about Durryn was about you suspecting him. Since I trust you a whole lot more than I trust Jedo, I would really like to know your current thinking. How strong is your suspicion level on Durryn? How about if we hadn't heard from ohcapt concerning him?
I do think that Ally's comment makes some sense, that those of us who are at least partially cleared should band together as a voting block and start to eliminate those who are not at all cleared. She, however, doesn't put Durryn in the former group, where I do. Of course, including both Durryn and Captin A / itisally makes for a seriously inconsistent group, and almost certainly flawed.
Gaaah! A lot that I thought I knew was turned upside-down by ohcapt's post. He knew he was making a final post -- why wasn't he precise about exactly what investigations he performed and exactly what he learned?!? I almost want to join Jedo just to spite ohcapt and his uninformative final post. I think that if silver heads that way, I'm tempted to follow. |
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MNOWAX
0.999... of a Troll
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| Posted: Thu Apr 19, 2012 5:27 pm Post subject: 1491 |
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of the two, I like Durryn more for a lynch, just simply because of what he had said earlier about basically not answering questions. It sounds like hes got more to hide.
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The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX |
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MNOWAX
0.999... of a Troll
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| Posted: Thu Apr 19, 2012 5:27 pm Post subject: 1492 |
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be nice to actually do this in a post, too..
Vote Durryn
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The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX |
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itisally
Master of Disguise
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| Posted: Thu Apr 19, 2012 10:53 pm Post subject: 1493 |
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| Zag wrote: |
On the other hand, itisally, I'm kind of surprised you aren't more willing to ignore ohcapt's results, since they shed a rather unfavorable light on you. Could it be that you are against doing anything that tests his results because you know that they are accurate?
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The thing is I am not against testing it. Its just that my options are people who are in my PM as being town (Ally & Aniima), someone who has a pretty good confirmation (Zag) and someone who I am pretty sure is town (Durryn). You can see how it is hard for me to want to place my votes there when we need a mafia lynch so bad. Frankly, I am feeling like his list is most likely a misinterpretation of a vague investigation skill.
I could shoot for the FOS list, but that isn't really testing it is it?
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I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong. |
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Zag
Tired of his old title
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| Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2012 12:37 am Post subject: 1494 |
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I have to say that that is the best answer I can imagine you making. If you end up flipping scum, I'm going to come back to this post and congratulate you: You earned some significant town cred in my eyes, and it makes me doubt ohcapt's results even more. (Not that I want to give anybody too much reason to doubt them.  )
I'm still waiting for silver, whom I trust, to weigh in before I consider changing my vote. |
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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine
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| Posted: Sat Apr 21, 2012 4:59 am Post subject: 1495 |
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This thread has gone too quiet. Time to impose a deadline.
Soft Deadline: Friday, 27 April
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland |
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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| Posted: Sat Apr 21, 2012 1:57 pm Post subject: 1496 |
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| itisally wrote: |
| I don't think Durryn is scum because he disagreed with Cloudrunner's interpretation of the setting. Durryn didn't vote for Amb because he believed the claim and read, correctly, that Stannis could be in the game based on the setting. |
A scum easily knows more of the setup than anybody else, therefore it is easy to make an argument like that in order to appear town. As for Amb, that's also hardly a point in his favor. Scum take the side of townies all the time to gain cred when they flip town.
| itisally wrote: |
| On Durryn votes, some people are more conservative in their voting. Durryn is one of those. He doesn’t move around a lot. In fact, the only people he has voted for all game are Fritz, Deception, Lucresia, Aniima and CloudRunner...At best, this is inconclusive. |
I think your last statement says it best. It's at least not a point in his favor.
| itisally wrote: |
| The fact that his wagon fails to gather steam with those that I have a town leaning on is reassuring. The fact that the people who level accusations against him are on my questionable list definitely works against them. |
I countered the first sentence already. The second demonstrates your prejudice. Of course, I've now asked you to reevaluate since you're obviously in the minority with a number of your reads.
| itisally wrote: |
| Is it possible thatDurryn hadn't noticed how small the Lucricia wagon had gotten as the last official vote count had 7 votes on her. |
Possible? Certainly! Let's be honest though, it was pretty obvious the majority of people were on one of the two candidates. Besides, why would he vote a near-confirmed mason? That's part of our biggest problem that didn't have a satisfactory answer. (To mean, the reason he had was not a good reason to do it. There can be no explanation to change that.)
| itisally wrote: |
| I think the continued badgering of Durryn is a Scum tactic to get the towinies off the OhCapt wagon. |
Now that this isn't the case...what? This is probably the scummiest line of yours, ally. I admit you seem pretty townish, but like Zag recently said, if you flip scum, I'm coming back to this right here.
| itisally wrote: |
| Durryn plays mostly from is gut and is not well spoken in typed form. |
Not a point of incrimination, as far as I can tell, and therefore not a defense.
| itisally wrote: |
| And while you want Durryn to prove that he is innocent I want you, Monk and CloudRunner to prove to me that he is guilty. Really, convince me! I have told you why I think he is town... How about you counter my arguments and we can put the burden of proof on you guys. You want the swing voters to join your wagon? Make it convincing. |
Ok. I realize that I probably can't convince you he is scum simply by countering your arguments, but I think I have shown why the reasons you gave for thinking him town are flimsy.
_________________
Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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| Posted: Sat Apr 21, 2012 2:01 pm Post subject: 1497 |
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So this doesn't get lost in the above post, I'm putting it in a new one.
Why has almost nobody voted today? I've seen multiple people say they are inclined to vote so-and-so, but nobody backed it up. It's just strange to me. I understand we have a lot of information and we want time to discuss and sort, but nobody is saying we have to quicklynch. At least with spyrl (whom I believe many people have voiced at least a slight inclination to vote) there has to be some votes to provide the needed pressure. DO SOMETHING, PEOPLE! This and the lack of good posting are letting the mafia win. We need to be in here banging our heads together and making progress.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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Zag
Tired of his old title
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| Posted: Sat Apr 21, 2012 3:29 pm Post subject: 1498 |
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Jedo, your eloquence impresses me. As I was reading through your post, I felt it was impressive and conclusive. However, as soon as I step away from it, I can't recall a single point. Are you a lawyer in real life? 
Here's my bottom line, though: Without some evidence that his evidence is bad, I'm not going to vote for someone that a confirmed "non-standard investigator" has declared he is "Strong feeling Town" about. I know that the other judgement he made in that same list (i.e. me) is correct so I have no reason to doubt his opinion of Durryn, either. Whether you are town trying to lynch a scum, or scum trying to lynch a townie, you'll not get support from me until I have some good evidence that ohcapt's judgement should be suspect.
I see that UMonk, in post 1488, has quietly come out in agreement for lynching Durryn, as a test of ohcapt. His post sounds to me like a scum saying, "Well, OK, I suppose I'll let myself be dragged on to this bandwagon
of the person I know is town
. But when he flips town, I'll disavow any guilt.
Bwahahahaha!
(On the other hand, if UMonk really is scum, I think I would have expected a vote, there. .... Hmmm, unless Jedo is, too; then they might want to see a townie vote in there between them.)
My own approach to test ohcapt's judgement was to vote Captin A, but that hasn't seemed to get much traction with anybody. With itisally so insistent that she is innocent, and my own inclination to find itisally town (in spite of ohcapt's opinion), I'm going to move off of that approach. unvote
There has been some interest from both of the major factions of the day (that is, Jedo on one side and itisally on the other) to lynch spyrl. While such a lynch doesn't provide us any information on ohcapt's credibility, the case against her is pretty good. Maybe one successful lynch is enough, even if it doesn't provide the key to everything? I actually do think it might provide some info, because I think that the bickering between spyrl and Jedo sounds like distancing. If spyrl is scum, I'd like to go after Jedo next. She seems the more likely, however, to me.
Heck, even though both sides have accused her, I'll make the first actual leap. vote spyrl |
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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| Posted: Sat Apr 21, 2012 4:12 pm Post subject: 1499 |
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| Zag wrote: |
| Jedo, your eloquence impresses me. As I was reading through your post, I felt it was impressive and conclusive. However, as soon as I step away from it, I can't recall a single point. Are you a lawyer in real life? |
I thought about it once, but I'm still too young to have met that goal unless I was a prodigy.
| Zag wrote: |
| I know that the other judgement he made in that same list (i.e. me) is correct so I have no reason to doubt his opinion of Durryn, either. |
This would be totally convincing to me (and I overlooked this previously) except ohcapt is "non-standard" and we have no idea what his results mean. I admit, if he was a tracker or watcher I would expect him just to be named so, so I don't really know what that leaves. However, ohcapt probably did not get standard guilty/innocent results in my estimation. That's the whole point of trying to test it.
*SPECULATION ALERT*
It occurs to me: what if ohcapt received role names? If Tyrion was somehow his result on Aniima (I keep forgetting the information we have on ally/Aniima...), that might explain why he was vehement about her. (Though I personally view Tyrion as apart from the rest of the Lannisters and not very "evil.") That then would suggest Zag and Durryn both have good-sounding role names about which ohcapt could have made a false judgment. Hmmm....
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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Durryn
Doghouse Dweller
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| Posted: Sat Apr 21, 2012 5:36 pm Post subject: 1500 |
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Jedo, I wish you didn't sound so Town. I am still gut level convinced you are skeevy (sp?) and my gut wont let go of it, even when my brain says "Move on, he is Town". All the pressure has been on others and I believe it is time you felt some of it.
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If there's anything around here more important than my ego, I want it caught and shot now! - Zaphod Beeblebrox |
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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| Posted: Sat Apr 21, 2012 5:58 pm Post subject: 1501 |
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| Durryn wrote: |
| All the pressure has been on others and I believe it is time you felt some of it. |
That's a little unfair. Monk, cloud, Zag, ally, and spyrl haven't had pressure either. I mean, if I look scummy, then I understand that I need to be pressured. Plus, I've been in the thick of it most of the time, so you can look over my posts and see where I stand. That cannot be said of spyrl (and cloud is probably next on that list even though I think him pretty town).
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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spyrl
Daedalian Member
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| Posted: Sun Apr 22, 2012 4:00 am Post subject: 1502 |
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In order of posts:
| cloudRunner, 1469 wrote: |
| considering Fritzler is the only known scum, who else would i have been voting for, unless i threw a Day 1 vote on Fritzler? i was only commenting on that part of his post. |
So you make a remark about "Day 1 shenanigans" based off of two votes? Seems fishy to me, considering that of the examples you quoted Garou and commented on, only a few were actually day one votes...
| cloudRunner, 1469 wrote: |
| he'd have tossed me in the town list with you. |
Not if I'd been playing as scummy as you. Just because he's my husband doesn't give me a pass for anything, I have to prove myself to him in the game just like everyone else.
Jedo, I think it's you who has "been getting away with way too much in my opinion" this entire game. I think you've been outed as something scummy and are staying away from voting me because you know that being on three townie lynches would be the nail in your coffin. Not only have you been the hammer on a townie who you didn't even let respond before you hammered, you have made several suspicious posts. I've posted numerous suspicions of you over the past days, but to be explicitly clear for you, the specific tie-ins with Garou's assessment I am agreeing with are: that you are "doing some scum hunting" but nothing in your posts really sticks out as actually scum hunting and that you "seem to be [voting] more to get a lynch through than lynching to get scum" of which your last vote switch yesterday is a perfect example.
Undercover Monk, saying "oh this is just sarcasm" doesn't negate being a jerk. +4 on the scum meter.
itisally, there is no OMGUS in my wanting to vote Jedo.
| Jedo the Jedi, 1477 wrote: |
| it is increasingly suspicious that no steam will build behind a Durryn lynch. |
Or maybe it's that no one else sees the "shadows" you are jumping on him for.
| cloudRunner, 1478 wrote: |
| No supporting argument, just "oh, I blindly agree with everything Garou said about Jedo". Not only that, but it seems like spyrl intentionally held off voting yesterday right until you decided to do your "BUS", and it looks like she would've gone into the night without having voted. |
It's lines like this which make me believe you didn't so much as read what I actually wrote, as slapped your preconceived notions of what you thought I said onto what I wrote, throwing out anything that didn't fit. Not once did I say "I blindly agree" with anyone. I said I found his "assessments to tie in with my own" I.E., he made valid points with which were similar to my own. As to my vote timing, I posted when I was able to get on and write. As I've said before, I do not have a phone to get on 24/7 to read and write up posts, so I post when I can.
| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| Now, I'm not a percentages person, but that seems like a pretty good deal to me. |
Really? You argued against me in post 953, "We have roughly a 1/4 chance to lynch scum. Odds are we will lynch town. Now, what are the odds we will lynch the cop or doc?" Sounds like percentages to me.
Undercover Monk and itisally, how can you say in post 1488 and 1489 that Silverfire is even remotely considered scum? She's the third mason doubly confirmed by the death of her two fellow masons.
Lynch me and you lynch another townie.
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As an out of game note, Garou and I are expecting our first child in about two weeks and this, as well as work and other real life things have made it very hard to get on as much as I'd have liked to the last weeks. As we don't know when the wee one will arrive, Garou will let Sentran know to pass along the word, as I'm sure I will be a bit busy.
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"And all those exclamation marks, you notice? Five? A sure sign of someone who wears his underpants on his head." Terry Pratchett, Maskerade
Discworld Mafia is here! |
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Undercover Monk
Professor Chaos
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| Posted: Sun Apr 22, 2012 1:11 pm Post subject: 1503 |
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I havent voted yet cause I was waiting for someone to come forward eith info. But as that doesnt seem likely Vote:Durryn he has had a wagon on him so clearly he is at least suspicious and will give us a good amount of info though what we really need is a scum lynch not info but no oe has proven to me spyrl is scum.
Besides durryn would have been my 2nd choice yesterday and jedo who gained a lot of townie cred with me when ohcapt flipped town is leading the charge.
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The Classic Blunders:
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3. Never release Peyton Manning |
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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| Posted: Sun Apr 22, 2012 1:40 pm Post subject: 1504 |
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| spyrl wrote: |
| I think you've been outed as something scummy and are staying away from voting me because you know that being on three townie lynches would be the nail in your coffin. |
If this is truly what you think, then I think it is you who "didn't so much as read what I actually wrote, as slapped your preconceived notions of what you thought I said onto what I wrote, throwing out anything that didn't fit." There are other people who have been on more town lynches than me, so if that's our only criterion for voting somebody, I'm not worried. Heck, even if that's a lynchpin I'll just think you guys are crazy. Townies get lynched. People are wrong. I'm not the greatest of these.
Non-sarcastically though, I'm currently not voting you because I think Durryn is a better scum to catch right now.
| spyrl wrote: |
| Not only have you been the hammer on a townie who you didn't even let respond before you hammered... |
Seriously? Here's my problem with the "hammer always makes somebody look scummy" argument: somebody has to do it. Did you know jadesmar was going to flip town before the lynch scene? I didn't. Also, I gave time for response. That's exactly what I was waiting around for. I believe somebody made mention that we might as well lynch, so I did the deed. *shrug*
| spyrl wrote: |
| ...that you are "doing some scum hunting" but nothing in your posts really sticks out as actually scum hunting and that you "seem to be [voting] more to get a lynch through than lynching to get scum" of which your last vote switch yesterday is a perfect example. |
Yesterday was a last minute change to help avoid the shenanigans of the previous day which may have caused ohcapt not to be lynched like a good number of the town wanted. Why is that suspicious? What I find suspicious is how people said they would point the finger at me if ohcapt flipped scum, but when he flipped town, the finger is still being pointed at me.
Beyond that, why don't you go find these super-incriminating posts which have been referenced so frequently. How am I scum-hunting but not actually scum-hunting? Also, please do show those votes that are only to get a lynch through (other than the supposed one from yesterday).
| spyrl wrote: |
| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| it is increasingly suspicious that no steam will build behind a Durryn lynch. |
Or maybe it's that no one else sees the "shadows" you are jumping on him for. |
Already answered this. Monk, cloud, and myself see it at least. No mass hallucination happening. Either we are all scum (seems unlikely) or he's a scum who is being saved through deflection. I mean, that people who have argued against him being lynched end up with a null read at best once their reasons for seeing him as town are deflated should signify the latter option. If you believe the three of us are scum together and having a really terrible game, then lynch me, but I promise it won't yield those results.
| spyrl wrote: |
| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| Now, I'm not a percentages person, but that seems like a pretty good deal to me. |
Really? You argued against me in post 953, "We have roughly a 1/4 chance to lynch scum. Odds are we will lynch town. Now, what are the odds we will lynch the cop or doc?" Sounds like percentages to me. |
Really. Notice I said "roughly" and gave a broad sweep? That's the extent of my ability to do that. My point is, I can't do those in-depth percentage things where Zag finds out the scum have a 23% chance of winning, 37% of the town is confirmed, etc. When I was figuring out the odds of Durryn being the best lynch, that was beyond my computing capability. I can recognize that about 1/4 of the remaining people is scum. That's 2nd grade math.
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[ooc]I didn't know you and Garou are married! I must have overlooked this somewhere. And pregnant?! That is so exciting! Nearly-nine-month-belated congratulations! I hope everything goes well.[/ooc]
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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itisally
Master of Disguise
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| Posted: Mon Apr 23, 2012 12:29 am Post subject: 1505 |
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| spyrl wrote: |
Undercover Monk and itisally, how can you say in post 1488 and 1489 that Silverfire is even remotely considered scum? She's the third mason doubly confirmed by the death of her two fellow masons.
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I think you missunderstood. That was the list of people who have some level of confermation as town. I think is is possible that ONE of them are scum. Now I know for sure it isn't me or Aniima. I am pretty confident it isn't Silvier as a Mason. I think it is unlikely that it is Zag. It could be MNOWAX as a vanillaizer, but I am not totally convinced.
The point is that if I choose from those who have no town confirmation at all I am more likely to lynch a scum even if I don't take anything any one says into consideration (which I would never do, but when looking at statistics...)
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I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong. |
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Zag
Tired of his old title
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| Posted: Mon Apr 23, 2012 12:33 pm Post subject: 1506 |
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| spyrl wrote: |
| As an out of game note, Garou and I are expecting our first child in about two weeks. |
Congrats!! This is wonderful! Best of luck to all three of you!
(Now I feel I should unvote. ) |
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3iff
very unbifflike
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| Posted: Mon Apr 23, 2012 2:33 pm Post subject: 1507 |
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| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
*SPECULATION ALERT*
It occurs to me: what if ohcapt received role names? If Tyrion was somehow his result on Aniima (I keep forgetting the information we have on ally/Aniima...), that might explain why he was vehement about her. |
But that doesn't match with what Garou posted to the mason board where he had Capt Aniima as Lady Stark and itisally as Tyrion. That's assuming he (Ohcapt13) was able to get correct info from his investigations.
It seems as Ohcapt13 was trying to tell us things, but he failed to be clear and what little info we have from him is confusing and unconfirmed. I'm going to have to ignore it unless it can be confirmed by other sources.
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spyrl/Garou, congratulations. |
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itisally
Master of Disguise
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| Posted: Mon Apr 23, 2012 3:01 pm Post subject: 1508 |
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| 3iff wrote: |
| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
*SPECULATION ALERT*
It occurs to me: what if ohcapt received role names? If Tyrion was somehow his result on Aniima (I keep forgetting the information we have on ally/Aniima...), that might explain why he was vehement about her. |
But that doesn't match with what Garou posted to the mason board where he had Capt Aniima as Lady Stark and itisally as Tyrion. That's assuming he (Ohcapt13) was able to get correct info from his investigations. |
But you have to remember that Garou didn't have as much information as OhCapt. While Masons have the ability to talk at night, they don't know anything the rest of the town dosen't besides who the mason't are therefore Garou's statement would have been speculation.
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I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong. |
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3iff
very unbifflike
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| Posted: Mon Apr 23, 2012 3:19 pm Post subject: 1509 |
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True...didn't think of it that way...but why didn't Garou put "Lady Stark?".
We'll only know at game end, maybe. |
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itisally
Master of Disguise
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| Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 3:01 am Post subject: 1510 |
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Remember, we know that Catelyn (Lady Stark) died night two with Novice. It had to be an oversight of speculation. I think that OhCapt putting too much emphasis on the name Lanister is more likely. I wish I knew how familiar he was with the books.
| Jedo wrote: |
| Ok. I realize that I probably can't convince you he is scum simply by countering your arguments, but I think I have shown why the reasons you gave for thinking him town are flimsy. |
It really showcased to me that your points are just as flimsy. The only point you really had was that you didn't like that he voted for Lucrisia in the twelfth hour. I concur it was dumb whether townie or scum. But it was an unobservant error that is just as likely scum as town. In fact, as UM pointed out in relation to other errors, I would expect Scum to be more careful and not make such mistakes.
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I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong. |
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itisally
Master of Disguise
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| Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 3:14 am Post subject: 1511 |
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vote: Spyrl I thought I did this sorry. I am not passionate about it I am playing a game with the statistics with this vote. Jedo seems pretty town to me right now and UM and Cloudrunner haven't been around lately.
Sentran, Can I get a vote count please.
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I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong. |
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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine
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| Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 4:18 am Post subject: 1512 |
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As requested...
Day 5, 11 alive, 6 to lynch
Deadline: Friday, 27 Apr
Current Vote Count
| Code: |
Jedo the Jedi (2): Durryn, spyrl
Durryn (3): Jedo the Jedi, MNOWAX, Undercover Monk
Spyrl (2): Zag, itisally
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Not voting (4): 3iff, Captin Aniima, cloudRunner, Silverfire |
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland
Last edited by Sentran on Tue Apr 24, 2012 1:07 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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3iff
very unbifflike
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| Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 7:34 am Post subject: 1513 |
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| Quote: |
| Remember, we know that Catelyn (Lady Stark) died night two with Novice. |
Oh, that's the same person? I'm going to have to stop following character names...especially those with names/nicknames/aliases.
Thanks for setting me straight. |
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3iff
very unbifflike
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| Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 7:45 am Post subject: 1514 |
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Sentran: Deadline: Tuesday, 27 Apr
You mean Thursday, 26 Apr perhaps ??
(It's April, not March) |
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3iff
very unbifflike
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| Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 7:47 am Post subject: 1515 |
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| Sorry for the triple post...you actually mean Friday 27th April. |
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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| Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 12:14 pm Post subject: 1516 |
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| itisally wrote: |
| The only point you really had was that you didn't like that he voted for Lucrisia in the twelfth hour. |
I'm finished arguing this then. That was the initial point, but when pressed about it, his story/reasons kept changing. Ultimately, that was what was scummy. If his response had been more internally consistent and cool-headed, I probably wouldn't view him as so scummy. (I know: you and he both argue he plays more from gut and he gets frustrated under pressure. All I am saying is when I was on your case, ally, it was your response which set me back. I think something similar happens with Zag. If I truly am wrong about Durryn, then it can at least serve as a good object lesson. I really feel he is scum. I've seen too many like this.)
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine
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| Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 1:08 pm Post subject: 1517 |
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Deadline corrected.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland |
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spyrl
Daedalian Member
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| Posted: Wed Apr 25, 2012 2:05 am Post subject: 1518 |
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What I should have said was, "being on three townie lynches in regards to the way you voted for them" as it's not the fact that you voted for townies, but the way you voted for townies that's raised my suspicions. Case in point:
| Jedo the Jedi, 631 @ Tue Feb 14, 2012 2:36 pm wrote: |
Fair enough. I was willing to let the discussion continue up to the deadline if people wanted it to do so.
vote jadesmar |
Considering the previous post by UM at Tue Feb 14, 2012 2:33 pm was a list of questions they wanted jadesmar to answer, what did you hope to prevent jadesmar answering from that list that you were so quick to hammer?
| Jedo the Jedi, 1504 wrote: |
| why don't you go find these super-incriminating posts which have been referenced so frequently. How am I scum-hunting but not actually scum-hunting? Also, please do show those votes that are only to get a lynch through |
Besides the above, there's:
Sat Mar 03, 2012 10:40 am Post subject: 927
vote Deception (If it's not obvious, I'll tell you why later.) [you never did tell us why it was obvious, or was the "obvious" part irrelevant after he turned up town?)]
Mon Mar 05, 2012 4:16 pm Post subject: 998
Anyway, vote MNOWAX. At least we can have some fruit. [you even say in your post, "I feel a little disconnected because I haven't read very carefully" - considering that at this point there were only two other votes on MNO,and you "haven't read very carefully," your "fruit" is suspicious]
Wed Mar 14, 2012 7:29 am Post subject: 1156 voting for itisally [followed by a post "I will be gone starting tomorrow until Sunday. If there is good activity today, I will be around to discuss what I brought up." [There were several good points brought up by others, but you only responded to itisally, other than a quote of cloudRunner(Wed Mar 14, 2012 11:43 am Post subject: 1168).]
Wed Mar 14, 2012 8:23 pm Post subject: 1172 [here you give up on your pursuing of itisally and then add a "this is probably my last post before I'm away, so I'll move my vote over to Durryn. I'll trust you guys not to be stupid while I'm gone, though bear in mind that's a stretch." You return to voting Durryn, with no supporting reasoning.]
Wed Mar 28, 2012 3:00 pm Post subject: 1301 [again, returning to Durryn, even though you felt my posts were "shady" and had told UM that you "still think there are people who actually seem scummy who would be better targets" regarding his brief post about Silverfire.]
Mon Apr 09, 2012 3:00 pm Post subject: 1420 [you admit you have a null read, and yet you choose to switch your vote to ohcapt.]
Sun Apr 15, 2012 12:32 pm Post subject: 1442 "vote: Durryn. I went along with the ohcapt thing at the end" [returning again, to Durryn with no reasoning other than you want to put heat on him. The "I went along with the ohcapt thing at the end" is such a line. You go from a "null read" to "oh I just went along with it at the end" - are you a weathervane?]
Tue Apr 17, 2012 4:22 pm Post subject: 1468 you vote me, claiming I came "in here and say almost nothing on it except to clarify some flavor stuff" [of which one line and one paragraph out of three large paragraphs and 3 lines of text was relating to "flavor discussion"] and that when I "post something, it's rarely very related to the discussion at hand" [No. I always post something related to the discussion(s) at hand. I may have other discussions in my posts, but they are still relevant and related to the discussions at hand.]
Tue Apr 17, 2012 4:24 pm Post subject: 1470 two minutes later you switch back to Durryn, again, "because I think that's a more pressing matter to illuminate" yet your "stronger desire is to press [me]". You have claimed [953] that you are "trying to actively lynch scum." How is it that you find me scummy, you have a "stronger desire is to press [me]" and yet you continue to pursue Durryn with a tenacity that spans days?
And "2nd grade math" still = percentages. At least it did when I was in the 2nd grade. 
| itisally wrote: |
| vote: Spyrl I thought I did this sorry. I am not passionate about it I am playing a game with the statistics with this vote. Jedo seems pretty town to me right now and UM and Cloudrunner haven't been around lately. |
Statistics? That's what you're claiming? Might as well do a dice roll then. Equals the same thing. "Oh, I didn't know they were town when I assigned the statistics vote to them."
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"And all those exclamation marks, you notice? Five? A sure sign of someone who wears his underpants on his head." Terry Pratchett, Maskerade
Discworld Mafia is here! |
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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| Posted: Wed Apr 25, 2012 4:25 am Post subject: 1519 |
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First off, I can't believe we only had one new post in more than 12 hours this close to deadline. We must really be stagnant.
Second, most of those posts of mine you quoted are out of context, spyrl, but nice try. I'm just going to reference using the post numbers.
| spyrl wrote: |
| Considering the previous post by UM at Tue Feb 14, 2012 2:33 pm was a list of questions they wanted jadesmar to answer, what did you hope to prevent jadesmar answering from that list that you were so quick to hammer? |
Notice the time difference is only three minutes. I'm pretty sure it was a simul-post. I do not remember seeing that post when I made mine (since mine was a direct response to Zag's post just before Monk's). Additionally, Zag was the third person suggesting the day should end (preceded by Amb and novice), and cloud made a comment after my hammer suggesting he felt the same. So...that's a case-in-point how? It looks to me like I was willing to take the spotlight of being the hammer vote when that is historically a bad idea.
Defense of post 927 -- It was in the first line of the same post: he had a crap case he was pushing on me.
Defense of post 998 -- Again, I said in the post why that was my vote: of the people with votes on them, Deception had claimed Ned Stark and Lucresia was a lurker vote which I don't typically do. Plus, as my statement indicates, it was a test of his claim which seemed somewhat dubious. In sum: he was the best lynch option at the time and had a bonus of possibly indicating another's alignment.
Defense of 1156 -- There were a total of 12 posts before my first post of the day, and 3 between that one and this one. Most of the stuff was people complaining about the previous day's lynch, suggesting who they think is scum, and who to vote for the day. I did the same with my ally case. What exactly would you have liked me to comment on?
Defense of post 1172 -- Her responses were rock solid town. You want me just to continue hounding her even though she responded well to my queries? As for Durryn, this was my first vote for him, and it was clearly because I wanted to pressure him for a reaction of cloud's point. Was there a better option for my vote? Nope. The town was leaning Amb when I felt he was likely town. Another reasonable and thought out vote by Jedo.
Defense of post 1301 -- Who else do you want me to vote?! Find somebody who doesn't think that last post of yours was shady. You claim to be super-town near the very end of the day when the gaze swings toward you. Amb pointed out the same thing I did. Finally, ANYBODY WAS BETTER THAN SILVER WHOM MONK WAS PROPOSING. If that's a point against me, I'll hang myself.
Defense of post 1420 -- I'm not explaining this again. I said why I did that. I'll instead address the underlying assertion: you know whom I found most scummy, so moving my vote was not me trying to look good. I gave my reasons, I followed my reasons. For all your careful reading, at least acknowledge you read them.
Defense of post 1442 -- His responses were never satisfactory. I should just give up that read because a majority of the town doesn't see it? Roughly a quarter of the town is still scum, so if he's their buddy, of course they would want to stifle that. Probably by diverting attention elsewhere. (I've never seen that before...) ohcapt was a null read. He was always a null read from the time he was first proposed as scummy. I confess it yet again. I'm not hiding my views. I did go along with it since people weren't going with my Durryn line, but I would clearly have preferred people join me instead. There is no a-blowing in the wind here.
Defense of post 1468 and 1470 -- What do you think you said that was relevant? You defended yourself with something that can't be verified (scum LIE and make up reasons so their votes don't look like bandwagons), you agree with a dead mason, and the rest of the post is flavor/meta discussion. You slightly point the finger at cloud, but definitely not much. As for the next post, you must be ignoring all the reasons I have given for hunting Durryn. I admit, this is bordering on tunneling, but given two people who seem equally scummy, I'm going to pursue the one whose death will provide more information. You haven't posted much, so we wouldn't really get any leads from your death. Hell, that whole statement about being someone "the town doesn't want to loose[sic]" may mean you are the SK.
Wow. I should not have needed to work that hard to refute that tripe. It just looks so damning the way spyrl presented it: out-of-context.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine
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| Posted: Wed Apr 25, 2012 4:56 am Post subject: 1520 |
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| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| First off, I can't believe we only had one new post in more than 12 hours this close to deadline. |
You and me both.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland |
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