Winter has begun... (Game over!)

[itisally]

Welcome The Great Crep’er!

We started with 21 players

Of the 16 Dead we have:
3 of 16 mafia
Fritzler , Cersei Lannister, mafia godfather, killed Night 1
MNOWAX, Grand Maester Pycelle, Mafia Goon/Follower, vengeance killed Day 5
Zag, Tywin Lannister, Mafia Goon/Puppeteer, lynched Day 6

11 of 16 townies
Jadesmar (Syrio Forel - town vigilante) lynched Day 1
Apple Sause (Renly Baratheon - favored townie) removed from play Day 2
Deception (Eddard Stark, Non-standard Investigator) lynched Day 2
Elethiomel (Arya Stark, Eavesdropper) killed Night 2
Novice( Catelyn Stark - Non-standard Protector) killed Night 2
Lucresia (Septa Mordane, Mason) removed from play Day 3
Amb (Stannis Baratheon- Angry Townie) lynched Day 3
ohcapt13 ( Barristan Selmy- Non-standard Investigator) lynched Day 4
Garou_Kinfolk (Jeyne Poole- Mason) killed Night 4
spyrl ( Gregor Clegane- Vengeful Townie) lynched Day 5
Captin Aniima (Tyrion Lannister - Roleblocker) killed Night 7

1 of 16 Neutral
Durryn (Varys- Rumormonger) killed Night 5

1 of 16 Serial Killer
Cloudrunner (Joffrey Baratheon) lynched Day 7

Alive:
we know for sure that you are a Mason
Aniima and I were linked together as I vouched for her and she was found to be town when the mafia killed her last night. This convirmed what had been in my PM. This seems to be taken by most people as confemation that I am town, but I can't speak for others.
UM has said he has no night abilities and has an alternate win condition.
No solid information from 3iff or Jedo on name or ability that I can recall.

I think it is likely that we have 2 mafia left, although I am not sure how to calculate in nutural parties as far as game balance adn I haven’t given much thought to what characters they might be. Are you familiar with the books of show? LoL already... hahahaha like we haven’t been playing this game since January hehehehe.

In the beginning we had a hard time differentiating between strong personalities and scummy play. This lead to a disastrous run of killing off townies. Someone got lucky with Fritz (SK or VIG), But MNOWAX coming up mafia was a big breaking point as Zag had run a risky gambit of covering what he saw as a MNOWAX mistake.
Anything else important that I am missing here. I really tried to write this as unbiased.

I would love to see a vote analysis this late in the game now that we have a few confirmed mafia, but I don’t think I will have the time as I just started a new class and the pirate season is about to begin.
_________________
I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong.

[Jedo the Jedi]

Names are way more important in this sort of game because the roles have been abnormal. As far as I'm concerned, you're getting nothing until I hear your name. I'm fine with a mass claim, but I'm not going until you finish yours.

[Jedo the Jedi]

An addendum: I also have a life and understand not posting all the time, but a 24-hour period encompasses our most frequent posting times. For that to be down at the end of a Day...not good.
_________________
Paragon Tally: 19 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[The Great Crep'er]

Reading through the game is a bit of a slog (Can't believe it took you 16 pages to finish day 1, you are an indecisive bunch, no doubt ) but certain details are jumping out. UM's connection to Deception, Jedo's vote on jadesmar and earlier tangles with Deception and I believe...Fritzler? Durryn? For the life of me, I can't remember now that I've gone and posted. I'll have to check back later.

Having claims at such an uncertainty when 60% of the players (myself included) believe there is a good chance of the game being in a lylo position, does not make one feel easy. We are close to the conclusion here, and I am most likely the next to die should we go into a night phase again. So I encourage your ballsiest plays at this point.

Oh, and a former member of the town has PM'd me. I believe that they should be modresurrected and subsequently modkilled.
_________________
Potato. Belgium. Eight. Random Lynch # Mafia awaits.

[The Great Crep'er]

Let it be known that my post came before I had knowledge of Jedo's post, if they answered my inquiries there.

[itisally]

@ Jedo

and yet with fewer players we are more likely to have larger gaps in time. I am also suprised to have you say 3iff has up his contributions to the same level as mine. Read his ISO and then mine, don't look at just the post count but the content even... and while you are at it filter it so it is just the last month. That takes you back to before Zag was Lynched. Is the quality of content there really equal? I think you are grasping at ideas to divert attention from yourself.

And I agree Names are more important... But you seem to miss the point of a mass claim, or it could just be that I don't trust you to come forward after everyone eles.
_________________
I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong.

[Sentran]

Day 8, 5 alive, 3 to lynch
Deadline: Wednesday, 23 May
Current Vote Count

[itisally]

SO I did a very brief summary of the final day vote counts and here is what I got when I sort by player instead of day.

What I really discovered is that my voting history stinks.

I do find it interesting that the one day we manage to lynch a scum is the one day 3iff didn't vote at all.

Jedo has a habit of hammering, but he isn't shy about it, however; he is hesitant to do it to zag who is scum.

JEDO
Day 1 Jedo hammers Jadesmar
Day 2 Jedo first vote on MNO (Deception lynched)
Day 3 Jedo alone on Durryn (Amb Lynched)
Day 4 Jedo hammers Ohcapt
Day 5 Jedo on Durryn w/ UM (Spyrl Lynched)
Day 6 Jedo hammers Zag but isn’t happy about it.
Day 7 Jedo second on Cloudrunner with me.

3iff
Day 1 Deception (jadesmar lynched)
Day 2 Deception
Day 3 Amb
Day 4 Oh Capt
Day 5 Spyrl
Day 6 Not Voting
Day 7 UM

UNDERCOVER MONK
Day 1 Jadesmar
Day 2 MNOWAX (Deception Lynched)
Day 3 Amb (hammer)
Day 4 Oh Capt (first)
Day 5 Durryn (with Jedo) (Spyrl Lynched)
Day 6 Zag (3rd)
Day 7 Cloudrunner ( Hammer)

ITISALLY
Day 1 Jadesmar (8th)
Day 2 not voting
Day 3 Amb (1st)
Day 4 Oh Capt (2nd)
Day 5 Spyrl (2nd)
Day 6 Zag (1st)
Day 7 CloudRunner (1st)

I am not sure that this really tells us anything, but it is something to talk about while TGC catches up.
_________________
I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong.

[The Great Crep'er]

[3iff]

Hi, tgc.

Yes, I'll be posting soon...I have to catch up on the events and discussion from the last few hours.

For now, the "cruel and heartless" comment was meant as a sort of joke, apparently not a very amusing one...

[3iff]

tgc: Note my early play in the game was seriously affected by only having 3 days per week access to the forum. This lasted until the end of March. Hence my post numbers are down. This was announced prior to the game starting. I believe I have been treated fairly despite limited posting opportunities during this period...but it's something I intend to avoid in future games.

itisally: "I am not sure how what UM did makes him scum"
As I've just said, my "cruel and heartless" comment WAS a joke (cue the sad smiley). Then there was a flurry of voting and cloudRunner was voted out... The UM vote on me was simply to get something happening, I voted back on him (there was nothing better to do) and I returned to the forum next day and the lynch target was reached.
itisally: "vote seems fueled by emotion and frustration"
I can now see how that might look to others but I was being light hearted about the previous vote on UM (before the cloud lynch). It obviously failed to be seen in that light.

At that point, while I had suspicions about UM, more-so from his self confessed "off form" performance and his "I got Zag", I was still undecided whether he was town or not.

UM: "Im sure I will be responding to this later as I disagree with all most everything in it but what the heck here's hoping you guys know what your doing. rolls dice."
What the hell is this? UM apparently disagrees with the analysis and yet ends up supporting it...rolling dice to pretend he doesn't make a conscious decision.

tgc: "(and I think this phrase was misinterpreted, correct me if I'm wrong)"
If that question is to me, I'm taking the "rolls dice" at face value as if UM doesn't know what to do. I suppose he could be rolling with probabilities...

From my point of view, itisally is probably town, tgc(Silver) is a mason, Jedo maybe town, I'm town.

Now UM 'claims' he's a neutral...and that's much better than looking like mafia. Now I didn't know that when I voted UM but I think it provides us with some useful information.

UM: "I am basically a vanilla townie (that is no night powers) with an alternate win condition. I have to lynch a certain someone hence why I have been on, I think, every lynch except deception "
Which is UM trying to make himself seem as if he's not a danger to anyone (except perhaps that certain someone).
If this is his true role then we must be suspicious of his motives for selecting anyone he does vote for...and he hasn't yet hit his target. So he's looking for his target and a name will help.
If untrue, then he's mafia.
And actually, lots of townies in lots of games don't have night powers. UM, do you have any DAY powers?

Aniima finding the SK: I was convinced there was an SK (or a second limited shot vig). I believe jadesmar (vig) was killed day 1 so an SK/vig2 must have got Fritzler. There were 2 deaths night 2 (Elethiomel and novice) and then it went quiet...by quiet, I mean just 1 kill most nights. So I assumed it was increasingly likely to be another vig that was out of shots. Aniima's report changed that and she was right.

itisally: "I am also suprised to have you say 3iff has up his contributions to the same level as mine." That's probably correct. My posts (numbers and content) haven't been as much as your contribution. You're obviously helped though by having more infomation (an 'ally' in knowing Aniima).

itisally: "I do find it interesting that the one day we manage to lynch a scum is the one day 3iff didn't vote at all."
If that's the Zag vote, note that I DID vote Zag, was shouted at by cloudRunner for taking it to L-1 too quickly, backed off and then votes happened while I was away from the forum...

tgc: "However, I just have to bring up 3iff's recent posts, five days apart (kind of seems petty to pick on ally for a 24 hour gap)"
Five days apart...is that where there's a weekend and a night to contend with? I'm not aware of criticising anyone specific for a 24 hour gap in posting. Part of the problem is that I'm pretty sure I'm in a totally different timezone to everyone else here...I'm often talking to myself and then have lots of posts to read when I return...like today.

[Jedo the Jedi]

[Undercover Monk]

I dont think so jedo Im not giving you my name til you give me yours so it helps you pick a safe claim. Thats the point. how am i more scummy then you. we have the same votes me and itisally were just a little less cavalier with ours then you and 3iff.

You can at least give a role claim since Ive already done that much. Also I am not neutral I am town no powers just an alternate win condition. If i fail to get my target and the town wins i still win with the town.

I have hammered twice both to ensure I got on the lynch incase the lynchee was my target. But the true hilarious inconsistency about jedo is his insistence that I hard bussed Zag but of course his hammer was not bussing he just wanted the day to end.

In fact lets look at that since you seem to be saying two seperate things.

Post 1626 May 16

[Undercover Monk]

One odd thing about 3iff, not sure if he ever explained it. But I remember him voting for Zag on day 3 then several posts later unvoting citing something cloudrunner said. Odd and I would have gone after it harder if cloud pulled mafia.


TGC I suggest you go back and focus on the pages dealing with Zags lynch following MNO's reveal
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[3iff]

UM: "One odd thing about 3iff, not sure if he ever explained it. But I remember him voting for Zag on day 3 (I think this was day 6...according to the itisally post 1641) then several posts later unvoting citing something cloudrunner said. Odd and I would have gone after it harder if cloud pulled mafia."

The timeline...by post number

1550 Cloud issues an FoS on those voting Zag so quickly
(at the time I think that cloud looked town...to many people)
1563 I vote for Zag (to L-1)
1564 Cloud "thanks" me for doing this
1566 I treat the "thanks" as sarcasm and withdraw my vote 'for now'
1579 Cloud votes Zag (to L-1) at 12.12am Friday my time
1581 I wait for further discussion...if any.
(16 hours pass with no posts)
1582 Jedo hammers at 11.22pm Friday my time.

In an earlier game (Secret theme mafia?) I had a tendency to voterush which had bad consequences for my team (we lost). I was justly criticised for this and so pulled my vote off here to allow discussion. Again, due to time differences, most/all the discussion occurred when I was away from keyboard giving me no chance to get involved when everyone else was on the forum...

Something similar happened over the cloud lynching where I came in Monday morning and saw that UM had put the hammer on cloud at 4.50am my time.

[Undercover Monk]

Thanks 3iff like i said if cloud had turned mafia i would have been more suspicious. Your explanation makes some sense but you do have to look at it from my view point. I know Im innocent which by extension makes itisally innocent. we also know TGC is innocent so its between you and jedo for mafia.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[itisally]

I never said my VCA wasn't biased, it was the post before that I made efforts with! lol!

But, anyway, thank you for commenting on it. I appreciate you giving another perspective to the list.

I thought UM's alternate win condition had explained his hammers pretty well. I also though it made more scene of his "roll the dice" comment

Now that I have been reminded I recall thinking 3iff's vote and cloudrunner going back and forth on it was odd.

I don't see why you have to be so defensive about being the hammer. I didn't say that I thought that made you scummy. Your right someone has to do it, however; I agree that saying you want conversation then hammering, when a deadline is coming anyway (it isn't like we would be stuck in limbo forever) is odd, maybe just impatient, or maybe something more. And you were ONLY hesitant on zag, not the other two times so I noted the anomaly. UM was always hesitant or unsure of his hammer.

3iff, if you were just kidding then why are you voting for UM? This is why I say your content is wanting. I reread your posts and still couldn't find an argument of substance against UM. If he is scum I want to get him, but I have to understand to vote. I am afraid to drop such a hammer when I can't find a reason. Same to Jedo, could you in 200 words or less summarize your reasons for voting UM and why his counters on this day have been insufficient?
_________________
I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong.

[3iff]

Concerning UM, I have some important information regarding his claim. Hovever, I need to check with the mod to determine what, if anything, I can reveal.

So I would ask no-one to do anything rash until I return on Monday...thankyou.

[Jedo the Jedi]

[Undercover Monk]

interesting 3iff. The intrigue continues. I suggest we give it a rest. In the meantime here's a quote from one of my favorite movies.

murder is basic. No conspiracies, no grand mysteries...no puppet masters behind the scenes pulling the strings.Everyone is capable of murder.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Jedo the Jedi]

ally, it's difficult to formulate so concise a statement about Monk, mostly because of the well of posts there are. For starters (since I have little time left before I'm gone for the weekend), I will direct you to the areas which bother me most.

Monk's ISO:

The stuff involving the Amb lynch. Read what he has to say about being on the lynch, then what he says following its culmination. Posts 52-65, giving particular attention to 54, 56, 60, and 65.

With the ohcapt lynch, Monk claims I am for sure scum if ohcapt flips scum. What happened when ohcapt flipped town? I'm still scum. Post 67 and 81.

Post 84: The TOWN has done nothing right, yet Monk was a major proponent in the Amb and ohcapt lynchings. (He wasn't the front-runner, but he ultimately vouched both of those lynches should happen.)

Posts 92 and 93: Monk admits I am more townie because of ohcapt's flip. Notice his reasons for coming onto Durryn now.

Posts 104 and 105: It would be good if you read these in tandem with my posts.

Then the stuff from today. I will gladly try to formulate a better argument, but I hope this can suffice for now.
_________________
Paragon Tally: 19 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Undercover Monk]

about the Zag hammer from jedo. YES YOU DUNDERHEAD THE HAMMER AUTOMATICALLY IS SUSPICIOUS. Thats the risk you take in hammering you know that and I know that. It has to be done but the circumstances that proceede it are important. You supposedly wanted discussion yet hammered. You didnt have to hammer zag you could have put forth your theories til deadline in the hope of convincing us that I was wrong and zag was innocent. (Of course zag was not innocent so I see why you had difficulties in convincing us.) Instead you hammer/bus him so you can say "look guys I lynched mafia and did you notice how UM was trying so hard to get us to lynch zag he must have been bussing"

also on the above post I meant give it a rest til Monday I am going on a fishing trip this weekend so wont be online at all. and I am very interested in what 3iff has to say on my claim. of course it could be a stall tactic by him and jedo who knows. TGC we really need you to weigh in on this as it is your vote not Jedo's deadline threat that will ultimately break this deadlock (So YEAH jedo forget the deadline if TGC agrees with me and itisally then it you under pressure not me just sayin the deadline has become almost a non-entity.)
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Undercover Monk]

simulpost responding is fun isnt it Jedo

I will have to look back to defend myself but yeah I freeely admit I can be wrong. but I notice you didnt point out my strong opposition to the deception lynch and i still dont see how railroading evil zag is a point against me and yet your reluctance to lynch him is a point in your favor.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Undercover Monk]

also um those post numbers cant be right man we are in the thousands?????
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[The Great Crep'er]

Just letting you all know that I'm still active. Came back from a History Final today, so I will have some free time tonight to hopefully post some commentary on the Zag-MNOWAX controversy. Hopefully, on this recent development as well.
_________________
Potato. Belgium. Eight. Random Lynch # Mafia awaits.

[itisally]

Jedo,

I asked why you thought MNO was scummy and you gave a nice defense of your self against him. From that, can I gather that you think he is scummy because he voted for you? (The numbers are from ISO that is why they are low.)

If his claim is true and his target is a townie ( it could be a particular scum) then it is still better to lynch the person who I think is scummy.

It is an unusual role and not one I think would come up as a "safe claim" because it is a rouge role. It would not be strongly town so there isn't as much to gain by it.

That being said, if the claim is true, UM is the only one who can give a role name safely. But Jedo, there is no reason you couldn't give a role as well and we could debate its validity. Then you two would be on an equal playing field.
_________________
I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong.

[3iff]

UM, I can't understand why you are reluctant to reveal your target (assuming your claim is valid).

If your target name is mafia (or likely to be mafia, it's sometimes hard to tell in this theme) then why not say it. I hardly think a mafia member is likely to claim such a name in that case. I suppose the problem is if your target is a town player...the mafia are not going to be able (or wish to) claim that name and the real owner of that name will be worried.

Of course, if you're unable to tell us a name perhaps it's because you don't know who remains...stating a name that no-one owns would be rather embarrassing. It's not Sansa Stark is it?

[Undercover Monk]

3iff I would have revealed my target already if not for a series of pms between me and the mod. like I said before the mod has not forbidden me to give out this information but he has dissuaded me on several grounds. Let me just say all is not as it seems. I await eagerly the news 3iff promised and TGC's commentary on the Zag happenings.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[3iff]

[Undercover Monk]

If I gave my information you would understand exactly why the mod isnt thrilled that i speak up. Its so tempting but as I feel there is enough I can do at the moment to convince you without claiming tat I am innocent then Im gonna try that
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[3iff]

Ok.

[3iff]

[Jedo the Jedi]

[Jedo the Jedi]

I'll address ally and Monk's continued obtuseness together.

[itisally]

[Jedo the Jedi]

Oh my gosh! Why can't you just see how scummy he is?

The mod is advising him on how he should play? That doesn't seem right.

He can't give us either name?

His role claim provides a perfect reason for us not to analyze his voting history?

He is gung-ho on a couple of lynches, then turns around the next day and blames the town?

He constantly misrepresents my actions and statements?

What more do you want?

Fine! I'm telling you that he is the one who needs more help. He dug himself a hole by needing to provide two names to support his story, and now he needs a lead so he doesn't mess that up.

I'm Loras Tyrell.

(P.S. - If you weren't confirmed town, ally, you would be my top suspect. Your voting history really is bad.)
_________________
Paragon Tally: 19 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Undercover Monk]

Thank you Jedo it was a long shot that you would choose my character your role is insignificant as I dont know the series and would be unable to verify anything about it.as promised I am Sandor "the Hound" Clegane. perhaps that may enlighten a few of you as to who my target is/was.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Undercover Monk]

Hold it I just thought of an almost fool-proff plan for the town to win. we either have 1 or 2 mafia left. one of us is confirmed town. Im gonna go through all the possibilities and I think we have a way to ensure the town win.

The plan Vote jedo today and if he is innocent lynch me tomorow. if he is guilty and the games moves on 3iff tomorow.

2 mafia left:

Me and itisally: If we follow my plan and the mafia is this team the town is screwed and I cant think of any reasons why this pairing isnt possible since very few of you trust me this plan is dependent on how much you trust itisally.

Me and jedo: again in this pairing the plan is useless. However this pairing is unlikely. what is the likelyhood that the mafia have had two days of straight hard bussing each other. a zag, jedo, um mafia to me seems pretty unlikely.

Me and 3iff: this pairing doesnt make sense. if there are 2 mafia left we are at lyol. 3iff could have jumped on jedo and ended the game. so very unlikely.

itisally and jedo: same as above there would be no reason for itis ally to not have lynched me and won the game a long time ago.unlikely.

itisally and 3iff: same as above. in this scenario both me and jedo would be town going at each other. why would the mafia choose sides when they could have ended one the game by lynching one of us. unlikely.

and last but not least:

Jedo and 3iff:this is the pair the plan is set to attack. I think more likely than itisally and me as even jedo believes ally to be town.


1 mafia left:

TGC: confirmed mason. innocent

Itisally:if she were the only mafia left she could have quick lynched me.

3iff: same as above only for jedo

Me: possible

Jedo: Possible


so as you can see if there is only one mafia left it is most likely me or jedo.

if there are two than it has to be either me and ally or 3iff and jedo. since we need to assume the worst we have to lynch right today so it comes down to how much you guys trust itisally. If you guys are convinced she is town then we follow the plan. Of course if 3iff and jedo are both mafia there is no way either will agree to it so we really need tgc to chime in on whether or not this makes sense. I hope 3iff you are town and this convinces you im doing everything in my power to be fair.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Jedo the Jedi]

[Undercover Monk]

LOL Oh jedo trying so desperately to tarnish me with total lies your last post didnt even make sense. If there are two mafia left and we lynch a townie then its 2 on 2. the night kill doesnt matter. the mafia can just deadlock the day as long as they post first and a true townie never votes in haste when you are in Lynch or Lose territory which is exactly what you and 3iff did. vote a townie so that the deadline would win you the game. but TGC replacing in has foiled your scheme I hope 3iff is town cause if he is you are screwed and we will win
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning