SURVIVOR MAFIA- TOWN WINS reunion show

[The Great Crep'er]

[Garou_Kinfolk]

[The Great Crep'er]

[Sentran]

Active for a Sunday, aren't you? I decide to see if anything new has been posted, and it went over a PAGE?!

Quick thoughts...
After Amb's claim and before Garou's confirmation, I was torn about voting him. It could have been an early gambit by a mafia that allowed others to claim later, but that would only work if he survived. Otherwise, the mafia would ignore the claim, so it was a safer claim before the confirm. Garou's post puts the whole thing in a different light, since they are now tied together. As others have pointed out, losing a Mason is better than losing a more powerful role, and the odds of hitting scum on Day one are mighty slim. If the Amb lynch went ahead, we'd have either two confirmed town or two confirmed Mafia, with only one of those two dead. Either way, that lynch gives positive information. I'm not saying I approve of such a lynch yet, but it is a possibility.

Since my own read is not getting any response whatsoever, I'll Unvote and wait for a few more reactions.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[jadesmar]

[Undercover Monk]

TGC did an excellent job (you missed Mackay in non voters) his vote count is now official and updated to reflect current standings.

[Jedo the Jedi]

A new style of catch-up for myself:

Page 5: Mostly Zag/TGC back-and-forth. TGC reads very town, especially in the face of all the flak. Zag keeps using an unconvincing argument that he is "more subtle as scum." The subtlety level of a remark does not necessarily rest with you, Zag. Some of us know you are more subtle, so we are looking for it. This line of defense might be a nice thing to say when you aren't as subtle as you think you are. Also, the lurker lynch is a bad idea. We have stuff to go on. We have analysis and people we find scummy. The main point of a Day 1 lynch is to get information about associations between people. Amb suggesting this makes me more suspicious.

Page 6: More lurker lynch stuff. I already made my comments generally. I will say I don't find MNO to be particularly scummy right now. I made a comment earlier referencing his quietness. He has been quiet when he has a significant town power and doesn't want attention. I was hoping not to be explicit about this. Still, it's not a free pass. I think jadesmar is still neutral (and snarky). A couple of quotes.

[ralphmerridew]

UM:

I'm not that upset that TGC got my name wrong. TGC didn't know it mattered to me. When I pointed it out, he apologized. That's enough for me.

Deception's response was to insult me. That puts him in jerk territory.

Next, as far as masons go:
When somebody makes an uncontested mason claim (barring scenarios when you're close to endgame), you unvote them. Period.

A bunch of masons in the late game are extraordinarily powerful. The mafia simply can't let that happen. Sooner or later, they must kill the masons. And when they do, the rest of them will be confirmed.

Make the mafia use their kill to get rid of the masons. I'd expect bad play of that form from a relative newbie like Deception, but I expect better of Jedo. Vote: Jedo

[Jedo the Jedi]

[ralphmerridew]

I didn't say to treat them as absolutely, totally, 100%, no chance of changing your mind, ever, confirmed.

I said to treat them as significantly more likely to be good than evil, until close to the endgame.

Once a person claims mason, they're locked. They can't change their claim. The mafia might kill an unclaimed mason. Or a cop might investigate one. If the town plays decently, the mafia might find that they'll be outnumbered by the masons and have to kill one.

[Garou_Kinfolk]

Here's the two scenarios I believe people see right now.

1: (correct) Amb and I are town. I made a newb mistake of claiming/confirming too early when I read quickly on my break then posting.

2: (incorrect) Amb and I are scum. I made a newb scum mistake on a gambit.

If there is a third choice I can't see it yet.

Here's how I see this being resolved.

1: Lynch a non-mason.
2: Lynch me. Amb is the veteran player and would be more helpful to the town. He gets nk in a night or two because of it. The mafia use a nk earlier on a non-investigative role. I made the mistake and should be the one to go.
3: Lynch Amb. I stay until late game because I am a newb and have a harder time finding scum.
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Most posts made from my phone.

[Zag]

I worry a little about the source material causing changing alliances, since (I guess, since I don't watch the show) it's pretty common for such things to happen. Otherwise, I agree with rm, we should treat the claimed mason team as town, for now. I'd be quite surprised for scum to make such a gambit (that is, claiming mason) before ever having talked. And if there were such a gambit, it would be more daring players doing it -- say, MNO and me -- than Amb and Garou. ... unless, of course, the mod specifically set them up that way. But I doubt it.

That said, I do believe that there is some reason to doubt them. However, I feel it's overwhelmed by the above reasoning.

[Jedo the Jedi]

[Jedo the Jedi]

For the record, so we can at least discuss accurately, Amb only had three votes on him at the time of the claim (myself, ralphm, Mackay). There had been no significant attention paid to Amb in the intervening pages of that post count, and he dropped the claim as an aside rather than something overt. In addition, Garou claimed one extra vote and less than an hour later.

The devil is in the details...
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Sentran]

First off, I would like to point out that Mafia Theory is called such for a reason. It is, by definition, unproven. It's an opinion. Therefore, if two people have a difference in their read of Mafia Theory, it should be expected, not a scumtell. That being said, I agree with almost everything that Jedo has posted today. I was waiting for Zag and Jedo to chime in before I made a vote decision. I am glad that Jedo is starting to see the type of play in Zag that I was, and it makes me feel more justified in my earlier read.

Even so, I will Vote: Amb. After many games in which theory was discussed and debating the subject in my own brain, I realized that Jedo has a valid point that we'd rather lynch a town Mason than to take the chance of lynching a more powerful town role. I feel strongly that Zag is scum, but not enough to chance losing a veteran player on a bad read. I also feel it will provide us with good info, as I've mentioned before.

One last thing, I would like to see less claims on Day 1. Too many claims only serves the scum, not the town.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[itisally]

[Garou_Kinfolk]

@ Jedo: Here is how I KNOW that the scum didn't have time to talk pre-Game.
1: The game started on Day 1.
2: I revived my role pm at 8:31 a.m. local time.
3: Game started an hour later at 9:11a.m. local time.
4: I am 5th on the player list. Logically that means I was 5th to receive my role.

An hour isn't a lot of time for separating, even if everyone was online at the time.
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Most posts made from my phone.

[Garou_Kinfolk]

My last post got me thinking. Why does Jedo think the mafia had time to talk? Then a theory hit me. The mafia were given their roles earlier then everyone else so they could talk. Jedo, if town, would have known there wasn't time to talk since the town received their role P.M.s at about the same time. This is theory, but it fits the facts and tells us why he thinks the mafia had time to talk before the game start.

Unvote. Vote Jedo
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Most posts made from my phone.

[Jedo the Jedi]

[Jedo the Jedi]

[Garou_Kinfolk]

Your right Jedo, but only about my last point. Everything else is fact. All any townie has to do to confirm my theory for themselves is to look at when they received their own role p.m. in relation to when the game started.
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Most posts made from my phone.

[Amb]

[Amb]

In fighting masons. Great.

[Garou_Kinfolk]

I guess all I can say at this point is lynch the non-vet mason (me) so the town has a confirmed vet it can look to for opinions. I shouldn't have to tell any of you that this is better then lynching a vet and having a confirmed town newb. Worst case scenario, you lynch Amb tomorrow for being scum. I'm going to sign off now and take a breather.
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Most posts made from my phone.

[Jedo the Jedi]

[Amb]

Jedo, I think you've missed my point. I'm trying to quash Garou's argument because it is faulty. His role should tend toward the opposite conclusion to what he made.

[itisally]

It is funny to me that you feel browbeaten, Jedo. When I read back over my post to you earlier I clearly pointed out two good things (a reasonable question and a good observation) and two bad things (inflaming tempers to no end and misrepresenting facts). Seems like people could read that either way. Defensive much.

Amb seems to be agreeing with you for the most part and you are trying to string him up. Sentran agrees with you. I happen to think the masons are worth waiting on and giving the cop a chance to do thier job.

I have never read about Mafia successfully pulling off a mason gambit (I could be wrong. I am limited in my reading). Based on this experiance it is more likely that Amb and Garou are telling the truth. Therefore, I am more likely to catch scum if I vote for MNOWAX or Jedo or Deception (or anyone really).

The people on MNOWAX are voting for him because he is eratic. MNOWAX is always eratic. MNOWAX is not always scum therefore this is not a scum tell in that player. (and yes I think they can be pretty player specific).

I want to give Deception a chance, After getting Lynched several times for play style and coming up town one would either stop playing or move to a cite where they felt more welcome. (read as I may be gullible because I am not confident that this is change on the side of good)

As for Zag not being subltle enough to be mafia, I couldn't say. He is an images in the fog person for me. He sees that patterns (even as scum) and I am just jumping at shadows.
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I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong.

[Zag]

itisally, it's way easier to see patterns when you're scum, because you know what result you want to end up with. It's like being a Republican.

When you actually don't know what answer you want, it's harder. Frankly, the only pattern I see right now is Jedo working rather hard to misrepresent my words. With every post of his, I find him more scummy.

[Deception]

[The Great Crep'er]

[Deception]

Vote Amb I think we can actually get this lynch - the claims honestly do look fake to me. Too quick, looks too orchestrated. Like Amb wanted an excuse to claim and Garou was waiting to claim as well. Last game we said we wouldn't lynch claimed masons day 1 because "what are the odds". It's not too hard to think Amb/Garou as scum saw that and went "we could use this" this game.

Also Great Crep'er: Semantics. How about he's nuts if he thinks that mafia are going to shoot a mason over a role that has a night action that could actively hurt scums' chances of winning - like a cop or vigilante.

[The Great Crep'er]

That remains to be seen though. It almost seems as if you're voting them over events that haven't even happened yet. We can't infer who might be a cop or vig role because no one (to my knowledge, maybe someone else's) has softclaimed yet, and we can't even highlight said possible "cop or vig" traits because it would be damaging to town if we did. There's a chance that scum aren't as crazy and thoughtless to expose their connection this early in the game and, essentially, ending it (whether it be today or three day phases from now). So why not take it? We can exercise both options that way, by keeping a possible threat to mafia alive, and eventually (provided the masons survive the next few nights and aren't confirmed or towntold by other powerroles) lynch Amb and Garou later on when we have virtually no other options.

[jadesmar]

[Deception]

[jadesmar]

[jadesmar]

[Jedo the Jedi]

[jadesmar]

[jadesmar]

Also, I didn't say defences, I said "Concentrated effort"

[jadesmar]

Ok, I said defences.

I'm a little drunk.