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Mackay
Saviour of Spiders
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 Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 1:55 am Post subject: 601 |
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| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| Why do you people not consider how outlandish this Deception thing is? Why for the love of God would he change his entire attitude about Zag overnight? He had to know he would draw all kinds of attention. If he was converted, even if Zag was now his cult buddy, he would rather bus him than out himself. This is utterly ridiculous. I know this is WIFOM, but that's a helluva act which isn't guaranteed to pay off (as is clear by the growing attitude against Deception). Either he's bat-shit crazy and stupid, or it was intentional and what he says makes sense. Stop being narrow minded! |
While I prefer to lynch liars regardless of the magnitude of their lie (this might be the one situation where I *do* apply a concrete rule universally, actually), I feel like the varying magnitudes of lie need to be pointed out.
The precedent you cited (and I do thank you for that, as it gives me some idea of the type of player we are dealing with) is a pro-town cop stating that an unaffiliated player is town - ostensibly to get a reaction? He then retracted with an "I wasn't lying, I thought he was town" or similar sentiment.
There is a vast, vast gulf of difference between that and what you're proposing he lied about here: stating that a player is guilty (potentially getting them lynched/vigged due to your lie), linking them to an unaffiliated, suspected guilty player despite your own affiliation to them, and stating "consider this a cop guilty". That is not a misdirection, that is a targeted attempt to get someone lynched.
His retraction consisted of "Yes I lied, but it was to help the town", with some strange new conviction that Zag was to be nightkilled. Apparently he only wanted to help the town for one night. Apparently instigating the lynch of someone you supposedly know is a cop mason is A-OK if you take it back afterward. Or something.
In addition, we have MNOWAX claiming to be non-confirmed mason, despite having (allegedly) no indication that such groups existed. Coincidentally, he is the player with whom Deception tried to link his teammate, the one who is, as Deception keeps stressing, extremely valuable.
Also coincidentally, Deception made a pair of posts that indicate that he was a member of a non-confirmed mason group. Surely he actually meant the opposite, right? (This one blows my mind. I asked Deception to clarify his statement at the time, and he said he would when it became no longer anti-town for him to do so. When MNOWAX claimed non-confirmed mason I literally said "Ohhhhh!" out loud and 'realised' that Deception must be his mason partner. But nope, despite it being 100% clear once we had a little more information, he wasn't saying that at all. He was totally saying the opposite.)
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...yes, I can see how this series of amazing coincidences and paper-thin justifications is less outlandish than "Deception figured out that his mason buddy was culted, then got culted too". 
"Outlandish" is what Deception did. Trying to figure out a theory/narrative based on everything that has happened in-thread is not "outlandish", it is "playing mafia". |
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Deception
Daedalian Member
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 2:13 am Post subject: 602 |
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Mackay: There is no question that I have been taking careful notes of what I plan to do than you have of what I have done.
1) Zag wasn't going to get lynched Day 2 because MNO hadn't flipped. He wasn't going to get lynched Day 3 because I was going to save him which I'm doing right now.
2) Zag wasn't going to get vigged because I hadn't died yet or explained why he should be killed.
I already explained why MNOWAX might claim unconfirmed masons. I made zero posts indicated I was a member of anon-confirmed mason group. You are just reading into what I wrote incorrectly. |
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 2:42 am Post subject: 603 |
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I apologize if at any point I have been or will be malicious. It is not intended in this instance, and ad hominem seems like a bad play right now. Let's see what I can do.
I really do want to counter the notion that I am "so locked into absolutes and generalities that [I am] incapable of assessing (or unwilling to asses) a situation on its own merit, free of out-of-game context."* I'm trying to make sense of this as much as you are. We just are eliminating different things as possibilities. I do not think there is an infinitely repeating cult, so that changes my perspective a bit. (The reason for this is it is unbalanced always, as has been pointed out.) On the other hand, you certainly seem to be holding onto that quite fastidiously. I cannot yet fathom why that is. In fact, I actually see this as some sort of circular argument: "Deception's behavior changed, so he must be cult. Since he is cult, the cult continues to recruit despite the loss of its recruiter. Therefore, Deception was able to be recruited last night." I know my logic isn't at the level of many here, but that doesn't seem sensible to me. Maybe I've misrepresented it.
On the other hand, I have an example of Deception playing the opposite of his actual feelings which allows me to believe that is a possibility here, however remote. If I take that into account, I can believe Deception is playing a gambit. The plus side to this is I don't have to make up some extra, role-related reason for it to make sense. Why Deception would want to play like this in either instance is beyond me, but I don't have to understand why to understand that he does. If I'm truly understanding things correctly, I think Occam's Razor suggests my conclusion. (Not that mine is therefore right, but that it is preferable given our information.)
To answer your question and combine it with Deception's reaction to the Amb/Garou masonry: I believe MNO was trying to distinguish himself while blending in. Who would believe there are two identical masonries? If two people claim doc, are you going to believe them straight up? Probably not. It's better to claim back-up doc or something. This is also why I believe Deception had the reaction he did: he knows he is in a confirmed mason group, so how could there possibly be another? He didn't want to explain so right then because he was already getting flak for attacking a mason (which is apparently frowned upon). This makes sense to me.
Finally, I need to address the outlandishness of Deception putting his buddy up for dead. How likely is it for Zag to have been killed? As Deception said, he put MNO at L-1 when he "outed" Zag, so the odds of the lynch turning were slim. (He even could have stepped in sooner and admitted a failed gamble if the tide changed.) The mafia certainly aren't going to kill somebody they think they can string up, so that mode of death is mostly eliminated. Then, there has to be a vig of some sort before they can even decide to kill Zag for the town, then they have to be convinced Deception is trustworthy and accurate enough to follow his advice. The latter seems especially unlikely considering the attitude of a good portion of the town today. The odds of Zag being killed before Deception could reveal what he was doing is low.
I think I've covered just about everything. I'm sorry to give you so much to wade through, but I think it will be for the best.
*I think this applies to you just as easily as it does to me. Your "in-thread evidence" is based on some significant guesswork, as I hope I showed.
_________________
Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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Mackay
Saviour of Spiders
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 3:28 am Post subject: 604 |
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| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| I apologize if at any point I have been or will be malicious. It is not intended in this instance, and ad hominem seems like a bad play right now. Let's see what I can do. |
I don't think you've said anything I would consider ad hominem.
When I say malicious I mean in-game, i.e. I cannot tell if your actions are due to your overarching out-of-game principles or out of genuine anti-town ("malicious") sentiment.
| Quote: |
| I really do want to counter the notion that I am "so locked into absolutes and generalities that [I am] incapable of assessing (or unwilling to asses) a situation on its own merit, free of out-of-game context."* I'm trying to make sense of this as much as you are. We just are eliminating different things as possibilities. I do not think there is an infinitely repeating cult, so that changes my perspective a bit. (The reason for this is it is unbalanced always, as has been pointed out.) On the other hand, you certainly seem to be holding onto that quite fastidiously. |
Not necessarily "infinitely", but repeating. As you note in your next paragraph, this is due to the fact that I find Deception's behaviour consistent with that of a recruit.
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| I cannot yet fathom why that is. In fact, I actually see this as some sort of circular argument: "Deception's behavior changed, so he must be cult. Since he is cult, the cult continues to recruit despite the loss of its recruiter. Therefore, Deception was able to be recruited last night." I know my logic isn't at the level of many here, but that doesn't seem sensible to me. Maybe I've misrepresented it. |
A little, but only in that you are drawing one from the other, making it circular.
The fact that Deception deliberately and openly named his own teammate as being a cultist, to the point of stating "Consider it a cop guilty" causes me to believe that Zag is a cultist. If Deception actually thought that naming his partner as guilty was helping him (a claim that I simply do not believe), there was no need to take the additional staps of:
(a) linking him to a suspected (and later, known) cultist, or
(b) making the "cop guilty" statement at all.
The kind of vehemence with which Deception attacked is, in my experience, reserved almost entirely for townies who believe they have caught scum.
I believe that Zag is a cultist and Deception was pro-town at the time that he caught and exposed him.
Deception then came out today retracting everything and making excuses, which we've been over repeatedly.
| Quote: |
| On the other hand, I have an example of Deception playing the opposite of his actual feelings which allows me to believe that is a possibility here, however remote. If I take that into account, I can believe Deception is playing a gambit. The plus side to this is I don't have to make up some extra, role-related reason for it to make sense. Why Deception would want to play like this in either instance is beyond me, but I don't have to understand why to understand that he does. If I'm truly understanding things correctly, I think Occam's Razor suggests my conclusion. (Not that mine is therefore right, but that it is preferable given our information.) |
You may have missed my post 601 while writing this. I feel I have put forward a good argument as to why Ockham's Razor supports my view rather than yours.  I didn't invoke the name, but I pointed out how much simpler my explanation is.
In terms of "making up some extra, role-related reason", this is a gross misrepresentation, to the point of being a disingenuous lie. We have actual evidence that a cult exists. I'm not making that up. Combined with your repeated understating of the danger of a cult which can still recruit, I am beginning to think the town is in more trouble than I had originally bargained for.
| Quote: |
| To answer your question and combine it with Deception's reaction to the Amb/Garou masonry: I believe MNO was trying to distinguish himself while blending in. Who would believe there are two identical masonries? If two people claim doc, are you going to believe them straight up? Probably not. It's better to claim back-up doc or something. This is also why I believe Deception had the reaction he did: he knows he is in a confirmed mason group, so how could there possibly be another? He didn't want to explain so right then because he was already getting flak for attacking a mason (which is apparently frowned upon). This makes sense to me. |
Oh my god.
Do you really think that someone is more likely to believe a second mason group exists if it has a different mechanic to their own?
It is very different from a doctor claim, as a doctor has one basic mechanic. It's more like a one-shot vig choosing whether to believe the claim of someone who says they are an unlimited-shot vig. You are more likely to be dubious, as it is a different mechanic to the one about which you have information. Aren't you? I am.
I would certainly be more likely to believe in the existence of two confirmed two-person masonries than one confirmed and one unconfirmed, as the latter hints at an unbalanced game, implies definite evil in the unconfirmed group (why else wouldn't the mod just confirm it like with the others?), and is generally just unfair to one or the other of the groups.
In addition: unconfirmed masons are extremely rare in my experience. Why would a mutually confirmed innocent mason (i.e. the default):
a) even think to ask whether the other team was confirmed or not, as it's so often a given, and
b) decide that in order for another mason group to exist, they must have to not be confirmed innocent?
If Deception actually meant the opposite of what he said, as he claims to have, why would he make his suspicion of Amb conditional on whether or not the masons were confirmed to one another? Isn't that an incredibly weird jump to make regarding the mechanics of the game? "Unless this thing which I'm not sure is in the game IS in the game, then I'm not going to believe Amb"?
In order for Deception to even have been thinking about whether mutual confirmation was relevant, something that almost never comes up, there has to have been something out of the ordinary.
| Quote: |
| Finally, I need to address the outlandishness of Deception putting his buddy up for dead. How likely is it for Zag to have been killed? As Deception said, he put MNO at L-1 when he "outed" Zag, so the odds of the lynch turning were slim. (He even could have stepped in sooner and admitted a failed gamble if the tide changed.) The mafia certainly aren't going to kill somebody they think they can string up, so that mode of death is mostly eliminated. Then, there has to be a vig of some sort before they can even decide to kill Zag for the town, then they have to be convinced Deception is trustworthy and accurate enough to follow his advice. The latter seems especially unlikely considering the attitude of a good portion of the town today. The odds of Zag being killed before Deception could reveal what he was doing is low. |
Right, but why thrust him into the open in the first place? It was unnecessary, and THIS happened.
Sorry to do the big wall of quote-and-reply, but I wanted to make sure I addressed everytihing.
* * * * *
Jedo, you keep telling me I'm scummy, or that I'm guessing, or that I'm being narrow-minded. You haven't actually explained the basis for any of these statements. It feels like a lazy attempt to cast a bad light on me in a way against which I cannot defend.
I have outlined the in-thread evidence that supports my conclusion. Tell me how it is guesswork, and you might actually change my mind, or I might be able to explain it to you.
Tell me why I am scummy, if you actually think I'm scummy, and if you actually want me to address it. (I'm not sure you do, on either count.)
If there is another ridiculous excuse or possibility that I haven't addressed and explained my disagreement, tell me. I will attempt to explain my reasoning. This isn't an ego thing for me. I want to win this game. I believe that I am right based on the actions of both Deception and MNOWAX. The vast majority of the arguments against are Deception's retroactive say-so. Calling my point of view ridiculous or outlandish isn't going to change my mind, but a well-reasoned argument might.
When you just SAY things without explaining them, you look like a scum trying to score cheap points. |
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Deception
Daedalian Member
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 3:53 am Post subject: 605 |
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Mackay so much to comment on but I'll just say this and let me know if there's anything in there that I haven't already responded to.
Not everyone thinks like you. Where I'm from (mafiascum), mason-like groups are definitely not certain to be town together. In fact I can't think of any games where people have been confirmed town to each other outside of Polygamist Mafia which is actually designed around people being in pairs which forces this confirmation of alignment.
Anyway: Two sets of confirmed town masons is crazy to me, and besides, Amb claiming such wasn't key in my suspicion of him, it just compounded onto an already suspicious slot. |
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Mackay
Saviour of Spiders
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 4:06 am Post subject: 606 |
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OK, fair enough. I'll cop that one, I've been out of the loop for a while.
I still think that a person is more likely to be suspicious of something that is inconsistent with their information than something that is consistent, though. =) |
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Deception
Daedalian Member
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 4:40 am Post subject: 607 |
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| Mackay wrote: |
OK, fair enough. I'll cop that one, I've been out of the loop for a while.
I still think that a person is more likely to be suspicious of something that is inconsistent with their information than something that is consistent, though. =) |
Depends on your definition of consistent.
You're still voting me so I'm assuming that "cop that one" doesn't mean that you believe me and there's apparently nothing new for me to respond to so I'll start focusing my attention elsewhere. We've been distracted for far too long. |
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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 4:46 am Post subject: 608 |
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I'm sorry I've been so quiet today. The local utility company mistakenly cut the cable line, and the entire town was without internet access for most of the day. There is a lot to digest, and I've noticed how adamantly Mackay is latched onto the Zag/Deception team. I'm highly suspicious of them as well, but not to the exclusion of looking at others. Captin A and rm are still far too quiet for my liking, and I hope Zag continues to post. Any information he can share, however small, may make the difference between the Town and Mafia winning (if he is in fact town). I am not opposed to a name claim. I'm not getting a strong read either way from jadesmar or Jedo2.
Scratch that...
Considering that Jedo found a comment by itisally "infuriating" in his first incarnation (before she died), and is bending over backwards to apologize to Mackay in his second incarnation. It just strikes me as trying to smooth ruffled feathers before the attention is diverted towards him. Strong FOS: Jedo.
_________________
Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland |
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Mackay
Saviour of Spiders
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 4:48 am Post subject: 609 |
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I was looking to see whether Deception ever questioned Amb about having a potential ability and I found this exchange on page 8:
| Deception, post 309 wrote: |
[snip]
Also you're nuts if you think for a second the mafia are going to shoot a mason over an actual powerrole. |
| The Great Crep'er, post 310 wrote: |
| Deception wrote: |
Also you're nuts if you think for a second the mafia are going to shoot a mason over an actual powerrole. |
Masons are technically power roles (they have the ability to confer outside this thread, which many do not have) so your statement is a bit contradictory here. |
| Deception, post 311 wrote: |
Vote Amb I think we can actually get this lynch - the claims honestly do look fake to me. Too quick, looks too orchestrated. Like Amb wanted an excuse to claim and Garou was waiting to claim as well. Last game we said we wouldn't lynch claimed masons day 1 because "what are the odds". It's not too hard to think Amb/Garou as scum saw that and went "we could use this" this game.
Also Great Crep'er: Semantics. How about he's nuts if he thinks that mafia are going to shoot a mason over a role that has a night action that could actively hurt scums' chances of winning - like a cop or vigilante. |
(bolding mine)
So what you're saying is, a mason isn't an "actual" power role?
I thought your partner was an INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT AND VALUABLE three-shot-cop-mason, to the point of your pulling the most ridiculous gambit in recent memory. I thought you had a super-secret, valuable, non-disclosed ability.
Guys is this enough lying yet, or is this still just "Deception being Deception"?  |
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Mackay
Saviour of Spiders
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 4:55 am Post subject: 610 |
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Oh hey post 314 too.
| Deception wrote: |
[snip]
The Great Crep'er: If they shoot a mason there's a zero chance of hitting a cop or something. If they shoot anyone else, there's at least a theoretical chance of doing so. |
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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 4:55 am Post subject: 611 |
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| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| ally, do you understand how infuriating it is to read this |
| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| I apologize if at any point I have been or will be malicious. |
There it is. Although the change is minor, I see this as a very pointed change in approach to people looking at him. It's enough for me to Vote: Jedo the Jedi.
_________________
Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland |
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jadesmar
Bad Puppy
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 5:02 am Post subject: 612 |
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| Mackay wrote: |
Oh hey post 314 too.
| Deception wrote: |
[snip]
The Great Crep'er: If they shoot a mason there's a zero chance of hitting a cop or something. If they shoot anyone else, there's at least a theoretical chance of doing so. |
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This one is my favourite so far. |
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Deception
Daedalian Member
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 5:05 am Post subject: 613 |
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Sigh... there's a difference between the mason that Amb/Garou claimed and our roles.
| Amb wrote: |
I'm expendable - that's why. I left clues to who my mason buddies were, and they could have been used to prove stuff later. But that's changed a little with Garou speaking up. I didnt expect that at all. If a lynch for information includes hauling me out and up, then so be it. It's better you lynch a claimed mason by mistake than string up a doctor or a cop.
I find it interesting that MNO instantly reacted by calling both me and the other out in the open Mason scum. It's a very hard claim to fake given that one of you will die sooner or later. |
Clearly Ambs' mason group did not have any powers like doctor or cop. |
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Mackay
Saviour of Spiders
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 5:27 am Post subject: 614 |
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| Except you didn't think he was a mason, so...? Who were you talking about? |
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Mackay
Saviour of Spiders
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 5:31 am Post subject: 615 |
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| Scrub the above, I read it as "Clearly Ambs' mason group did not have any powers like doctor or cop" being his thoughts at the time he made those other posts, but it applies to now as well. Might as well give benefit of the doubt on this one, there's plenty of other lies to pick on. |
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Deception
Daedalian Member
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 5:36 am Post subject: 616 |
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| Mackay wrote: |
| , there's plenty of other lies to pick on. |
Not really, but keep on trying, I've answered every one. |
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The Great Crep'er
2% Spambot
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 5:50 am Post subject: 617 |
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| Sentran wrote: |
| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| ally, do you understand how infuriating it is to read this |
| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| I apologize if at any point I have been or will be malicious. |
There it is. Although the change is minor, I see this as a very pointed change in approach to people looking at him. It's enough for me to Vote: Jedo the Jedi. |
While I will agree with your point about scum being politicians in that essence of trying to control town opinion (whether successful or not) I do not think it is uniquely scum. Where is the distinction (for you) for this line between a politicking bad guy and a town member trying to avoid the fray and stay alive? |
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Mackay
Saviour of Spiders
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 6:58 am Post subject: 618 |
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| Deception wrote: |
| Not really, but keep on trying, I've answered every one. |
I guess that's technically true. "Answered" does not necessarily imply that the answers be coherent, sensible, consistent, true, or cogent.
You sure got me there. 
Now I'm going to make the post I wanted to make today (i.e. one that doesn't only talk about Deception). |
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Mackay
Saviour of Spiders
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 8:47 am Post subject: 619 |
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Here are my thoughts on everyone but Deception:
Amb: With the existence of a cult, nobody is 100% confirmed innocent. However, Amb is about as close as it gets for me. He's so good that I wouldn't notice a change in his demeanour if he got culted anyway, but there has been no indication of anything untoward, from my end. (Can I just say, I love the word "cult" as a verb in this context? Thanks MNOWAX!) I hope it's not just me being inflexible due to my 100% belief in his innocence yesterday.
Apple Sause/Jedo2: What I thought at first was a slight scumtingle (the first instance of saying "you're scummy" without backing it up) turned into an "oh never mind, this is the same as before" (applying ideas and incidents from other games instead of looking at what is happening in this game), and then back into a BIG scumtingle when he started saying "your argument involves guesswork" (without elaborating), "stop being narrow minded" (without elaborating and despite the fact that I had considered and addressed all arguments suggested), and making sweeping speeches to "you people". This is a clumsy use of rhetoric to try to influence the thoughts and opinions of the town, while not offering anything concrete that can be argued against. It stinks of scum. If I didn't believe that to not lynch a known cultist would be a risk to the town, he would have my vote. 100%.
Captin Aniima: This is an interesting one. She emerged from nothingness and immediately voted for Sentran while stating that she found Deception the scummiest. That's... questionable. She has also been notably overlooked by Jedo's second incarnation - the first did not want to allow her to fly under the radar. Also high on my "mafia" list, particularly in allegiance with Jedo.
jadesmar: is funny. And I think I mentioned this before, but I tend to be bad at getting a scum read on people with whom I agree. I am inclined to look upon cult-hunting as the most pro-town activity currently, and therefore have a "town" reading on jadesmar. I do want to put a disclaimer on this one, though, I'm much less convinced either one way or another than most.
ralphmerridew: I think I'm guilty of the same attitude toward ralphmerridew as Jedo has to Deception - as far as I know, he's always like this. Unlike Jedo, I'm not using that as an excuse for scummy behaviour. I just haven't seen that much "scummy" behaviour from him. He got piled on yesterday for calling MNOWAX out on not being a mason, and I think that as a result Jedo sees him as an easy target, an idea which makes me resistant to voting for him.
Sentran: Ooh. He's been WEIRD today. I have barely noticed him for most of the game (day 1 I thought he was linked to Amb but that died in the arse) but he's started jumping out at me just today. It's not his fault really, Captin Aniima voting for him set me off. Then the whole "silencing" theory was so out-of-nowhere that it just made his posting seem off. In addition, as scummy as Jedo is, I think Sentran's justification for voting him is weak. I don't know how you can read Jedo's passive-aggressive attacks and interpret him as apologetic or conciliatory. I feel as though Sentran is insincere, but I can't tell if that's just because I disagree with him and therefore think he is saying wrong things on purpose.
TGC: Despite my slapping a big FOS on him earlier, I've kind of come around on TGC. Maybe it's seeing that everyone is just assuming that cult and mafia are separate, and that almost nobody seems worried about the cult (this is still kinda mindblowing to me though) but I think it's something else I've noticed:
Of the players that I have had to tangle with today, Creper is the only person whom I felt was addressing my concerns/questions with the genuine intent of figuring out more information for the town. Deception and Jedo have both seemed deeply disingenuous - Deception just seeming to make up stuff as he went along and coasting by on an apparent reputation for poor play, Jedo kind of using the argument to cast aspersions on me without having to back it up. TGC's tone, in comparison, seems like he was just arguing because that's what he really thought. I know this sounds a bit sketchy, it's very tone/context based, but he seems like he is actually trying to figure out the right lynch to make, rather than "prevent the Deception lynch" or "set up the Mackay lynch". Townish read. I liked his claim on day 1, too.
Zag: Behaving uncharacteristically, but this is easily explained. My condolences, Zag.
Basically, I think he's a cultist. We all know this already. =) I imagine it would be difficult for him to post anything given the way his teammate is behaving. I will say that it strikes me as highly unlikely that Zag would not want to use an investigation result immediately. There's no way he saves it for a day, that's an entire day with less information. Cultscum.
I was gonna do some rankings or somesuch but my little sister came to visit and I've been very rude to her so far. Time to go socialise. =) |
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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 9:06 am Post subject: 620 |
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| The Great Crep'er wrote: |
| Where is the distinction (for you) for this line between a politicking bad guy and a town member trying to avoid the fray and stay alive? |
Simply because in the presence of other well established and vehement bandwagon candidates, he has no need to be overly conciliatory. I have never (in memory) seen him this apologetic in a game.
Mackay, my manner may seem strange today, but consider this. I'm not exactly trying to outguess the moderator, but considering all options I can for possible roles. Since I don't know the show, I have to rely on my Mafia theory to get me through. I admit that the silencer theory was a bit out of left field, but I could come up with no other logical reason why Deception would choose to out his fellow Mason rather than his own role. I've also mentioned most players left in the game, and my guess as to their potential to be scum. Speaking of which... TGC would be the most likely choice for a cult recruit. He claimed early, and a role name that even I have heard of. Since he survived day 1, he was assumed town by most everybody. If I had been the cult recruiter, I'd go for him.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland |
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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 9:06 am Post subject: 621 |
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| The Great Crep'er wrote: |
| Where is the distinction (for you) for this line between a politicking bad guy and a town member trying to avoid the fray and stay alive? |
Simply because in the presence of other well established and vehement bandwagon candidates, he has no need to be overly conciliatory. I have never (in memory) seen him this apologetic in a game.
Mackay, my manner may seem strange today, but consider this. I'm not exactly trying to outguess the moderator, but considering all options I can for possible roles. Since I don't know the show, I have to rely on my Mafia theory to get me through. I admit that the silencer theory was a bit out of left field, but I could come up with no other logical reason why Deception would choose to out his fellow Mason rather than his own role. I've also mentioned most players left in the game, and my guess as to their potential to be scum. Speaking of which... TGC would be the most likely choice for a cult recruit. He claimed early, and a role name that even I have heard of. Since he survived day 1, he was assumed town by most everybody. If I had been the cult recruiter, I'd go for him.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland |
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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 9:07 am Post subject: 622 |
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Sorry for the double post, not sure how that happened.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland |
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 12:35 pm Post subject: 623 |
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Mackay, one time I said your insistence that your way is right was leaning scum. I haven't mentioned that again. And I'm truly baffled by your continued insistence that the impossibility of a repeating cult after the cult recruiter died is part of the game. The best I can say is this is like a religious argument and we're both trying to prove our invisible deity exists. We're starting from different points with different exclusions and premises, so we really can't converse with each other.
The "fact" that the cult is continuing after MNO's death is not in-thread evidence. You do not know. I'm trying to refute that, but you won't accept my refusal. This is guesswork. I don't see how it isn't. You think this based purely on your perception of Deception's attitudinal change. If you have extra knowledge that makes it fact, please enlighten us so I can agree with you.
That really is the best I can do. Now, I am so opposed to doing things your way in this instance because if we lynch incorrectly today, we are likely at 8 tomorrow with 5 to lynch, and probably 3 of those will be baddies of some sort. Those are not odds I like. However, I love being able to hold it over somebody's head at the endgame that I was right, so I can switch to Deception and we can go that route. (For the record, I would be more willing if this was Day 2, but it isn't.)
Sentran, my conciliation with Mackay is because of a thing with her out-of-game. We have a tendency to misunderstand each other, and I was trying to make sure I didn't slip into an attack. When I read "malicious," I thought I had missed. Apparently not, and now I recognize she can handle herself and anything I throw at her anyway. I'm the one who is overly sensitive. Vote me if you want for it, but that's the truth.
Also, Mackay brings up a good point about you. The town read Jedo1 had on you doesn't seem so accurate anymore.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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Undercover Monk
Professor Chaos
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 1:54 pm Post subject: 624 |
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Whew that was a tough one to slog through. seriously some of you were jumping around like squirrels on crack.
| Code: |
(2) Deception: Mackay, jadesmar
(1) ralphmerridew: Jedo the Jedi
(1) jadesmar: Deception
(1) Sentran: Captain Aniima
(1) Jedo the Jedi: Sentran
Not Voting: Zag, Amb, ralphmerridew, The Great Crep'er |
6 to lynch
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning |
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ralphmerridew
Daedalian Member
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 2:52 pm Post subject: 625 |
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| 'aidjoewbrwsdfadsuytertrhfsrhfgadgffsgjiloxzdfgdsgdfssesawe' wrote: |
Mackay: There is no question that I have been taking careful notes of what I plan to do than you have of what I have done.
1) Zag wasn't going to get lynched Day 2 because MNO hadn't flipped. He wasn't going to get lynched Day 3 because I was going to save him which I'm doing right now.
2) Zag wasn't going to get vigged because I hadn't died yet or explained why he should be killed.[b]
I already explained why MNOWAX might claim unconfirmed masons. I made zero posts indicated I was a member of anon-confirmed mason group. You are just reading into what I wrote incorrectly. |
| 'aidjoewbrwsdfadsuytertrhfsrhfgadgffsgjiloxzdfgdsgdfssesawe' wrote: |
Stop being stubborn. If MNO is cult leader, zag is cult. [b]This isn't an opinion. This is a fact that has nothing to do with my reads.
Consider it a cop guilty. |
(bolding mine)
To me, a "cop guilty" means "I have information, not generally available, that makes it certain that ___ is scum." It's not necessarily a literal "I'm a cop, investigated ___, and got the result 'guilty'.", but it's something as strong. For example, a tracker who'd followed MNOWAX to Zag could make such a statement.
I think I've had decent results at endgame strategies; if there's a way to set late-game actions so as to win the game for the town, I can find it. (Probably my best was Double Dethy, when, on day 2, I posted a strategy that guaranteed lynching both scum against any defense by the scum.) Such strategies depend on having accurate information about my teammates. Telling a lie like "So and so is defiinitely scum", when you know he's definitely good, is far more likely to screw things up for the town.
Fact: Mafia need for the town to do stupid things. Townies do not.
As such, when a person when does something that is likely to make the town screw up, I think it is far more likely that they are scum than town.
Mackay:
1) I agree that Amb isn't mafia, but, as a likely innocent, he'd be a good cult target.
2) The cult is most likely neutered with MNOWAX dead. (Some cults can recruit or kill, but with the lack of an extra kill last night, that's unlikely.)
3) As such, I favor ignoring the cult for now, and prioritizing seeking mafia.
and Vote: "aidjoewbrwsdfadsuytertrhfsrhfgadgffsgjiloxzdfgdsgdfssesawe" |
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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 3:34 pm Post subject: 626 |
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| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
Sentran, my conciliation with Mackay is because of a thing with her out-of-game. We have a tendency to misunderstand each other, and I was trying to make sure I didn't slip into an attack. When I read "malicious," I thought I had missed. Apparently not, and now I recognize she can handle herself and anything I throw at her anyway. I'm the one who is overly sensitive. Vote me if you want for it, but that's the truth.
Also, Mackay brings up a good point about you. The town read Jedo1 had on you doesn't seem so accurate anymore. |
While the last sentence can easily be read as both a subtle OMGUS post and a change in stance due to change in faction, I will take the possibility of out-of-game history into consideration. Mackay, do you support this portion of Jedo's claim?
_________________
Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland |
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Amb
Amb the Hitched.
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 7:43 pm Post subject: 627 |
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I think the next vote count should read:
(2) Deception: Mackay, jadesmar
(1) ralphmerridew: Jedo the Jedi
(1) jadesmar: Deception
(1) Sentran: Captain Aniima
(1) Jedo the Jedi: Sentran
(1) aidjoewbrwsdfadsuytertrhfsrhfgadgffsgjiloxzdfgdsgdfssesawe: ralphmerridew
Not Voting: Zag, Amb, The Great Crep'er
Anyway: I'm getting more and more baffled right now. THere are some massive contributions to actually plow through. And the same people still avoid the limelight. Captain Aniima is my most likely place to put a vote. BUt as you can see in the vote count I quasi-quoted - he/she hasn't got any traction going. But neither does deception, and a voting block on him could be merited.
THe name claim idea has passed away into silence. I keep changing my mind about the usefulness of it. We don't know if it will gain us anything because the mafia could have enough safe claims to feed a tribe of Ethiopians. But on the other hand - if they don't: Then they have to pick names like Stephanie La Grossa and hope that it isn't taken. One thing is for certain: If obscure characters (who only survived a few days) come up, then these are more likely to be liars. Of course they need to be taken into context with their posts.
And given the scatter gun nature of the voting right now (season 1 merge?) it might be a good idea to have a new topic. I have no idea whether Deception is lying or not. I tend to believe Mackay. But it is very easy for a townie to blindside themselves once they have a target. I have to fight so hard with myself once I latch on to someone.
Also: If the cult was able to keep growing, then this game would be heavily biased towards cult. The town has to have a fair chance of being able to win from the outset. |
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Zag
Tired of his old title
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 8:05 pm Post subject: 628 |
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| I'm pretty sure that a game with a cult in which the ability to recruit is passed to another cult member after the original dies would be ridiculously unbalanced. If you wanted to have that, you'd have to have a balancing affect, like if you try to recruit a scum then you die. Even then, it would be awfully hard to stop. |
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Amb
Amb the Hitched.
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 9:34 pm Post subject: 629 |
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My take on a Name-claim Order:
Captain Aniima
Jadesmar
Sentran
ralphmerridew
Deception
Mackay
The Great Crep'er
Jedo the Jedi
Zag
Amb
I think I need something more than what we currently have to help me decide who to vote :/ |
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ralphmerridew
Daedalian Member
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 10:26 pm Post subject: 630 |
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Or it could be balanced with something like "Original recruiter is certain to succeed, if target is recruitable; any other person has a 50% chance of success."
I think that Salem Witch Mafia had a cult without a specific recruiter, but there was a character who could permanently protect a person from recruitment. (Most of her early protections survived to endgame, then blundered badly at the end; the cult won.) |
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Amb
Amb the Hitched.
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 11:16 pm Post subject: 631 |
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| Oh, and until Aniima name claims: Vote Captain Aniima |
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jadesmar
Bad Puppy
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 11:24 pm Post subject: 632 |
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| Waiting in Captain Aniima. Then I'll post my role. |
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jadesmar
Bad Puppy
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| Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 11:26 pm Post subject: 633 |
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| jadesmar wrote: |
| Waiting in Captain Aniima. Then I'll post my role. |
To be read thusly:
Waiting on Captain Aniima. Then I'll post my character's name. |
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Mackay
Saviour of Spiders
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| Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2012 12:24 am Post subject: 634 |
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| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| Mackay, one time I said your insistence that your way is right was leaning scum. I haven't mentioned that again. And I'm truly baffled by your continued insistence that the impossibility of a repeating cult after the cult recruiter died is part of the game. The best I can say is this is like a religious argument and we're both trying to prove our invisible deity exists. We're starting from different points with different exclusions and premises, so we really can't converse with each other. |
Jedo, this is the clearest you have been about the logical basis for why you do not believe me! I've been addressing other things you said like "Ockham's Razor" and "it's too outlandish to be true" etc, without specifying exactly this (or I missed it).
Thankyou. Now I can address it!
I believe that there is likely a backup cult recruiter. That's it. These roles do not come up frequently, but they come up regularly. I'm not sold on the idea that there is an infinitely repeating weed cult, and I don't know why people are treating me as though that is what I am saying (not that I've ruled it out 100%, but I think it hugely unlikely that the game is that broken) - but I do think they can still recruit.
| Quote: |
| The "fact" that the cult is continuing after MNO's death is not in-thread evidence. You do not know. I'm trying to refute that, but you won't accept my refusal. This is guesswork. I don't see how it isn't. You think this based purely on your perception of Deception's attitudinal change. If you have extra knowledge that makes it fact, please enlighten us so I can agree with you. |
Deception's behaviour is strong evidence, though. If we're not supposed to catch people in lies and contradictions, how are we supposed to play?
| Quote: |
| That really is the best I can do. Now, I am so opposed to doing things your way in this instance because if we lynch incorrectly today, we are likely at 8 tomorrow with 5 to lynch, and probably 3 of those will be baddies of some sort. Those are not odds I like. However, I love being able to hold it over somebody's head at the endgame that I was right, so I can switch to Deception and we can go that route. (For the record, I would be more willing if this was Day 2, but it isn't.) |
Well luckily, I care mostly about winning. Being right is a big part of that due to my domineering nature, but I am basically just a big sore loser who gets just as butthurt if I was right and lose than if I was wrong and lose. So if I'm wrong about Deception and it makes the town lose, you can rest assured in the knowledge that your rubbing it in will be extra effective and I will sulk for days. 
| Sentran wrote: |
| While the last sentence can easily be read as both a subtle OMGUS post and a change in stance due to change in faction, I will take the possibility of out-of-game history into consideration. Mackay, do you support this portion of Jedo's claim? |
Enh. In the sense that he means it, yes. He regularly says things that are privileged or thoughtless (in the sense that they appear to me as kneejerk/boilerplate responses that seem like they would become ingrained from listening to people talk politics in Texas - not in the sense that Jedo himself is thoughtless), and I am confrontational and opinionated (I'm sure you would never have guessed from this thread). We tangle occasionally via PM. =) AFAIK neither of us holds a grudge, but I am mean about it, and Jedo probably thinks I don't like him. (Quite the opposite. I tend to just stop interacting with people when that is the case. I'm extra harsh because I know he actually listens and considers things, it's kind of cruel of me really.)
There's a new thread that I'm just salivating to get into - Jedo knows which one without my having to tell him, I'm sure - and I have this exam to study for that I haven't been studying for because "ooh, mafia". I can't get into a debate as well. It's killing me.
I'm cutting this short because I have to go to work, but I wanted to address one little snippet of Amb's post.
| Amb wrote: |
| I have no idea whether Deception is lying or not. I tend to believe Mackay. But it is very easy for a townie to blindside themselves once they have a target. I have to fight so hard with myself once I latch on to someone. |
This is kind of silly. If Deception isn't lying now, he has been lying to us for the rest of the game. He has stated things which are in direct opposition to one another. I'm completely astounded that we're apparently OK with this as a town group.
The second part is true. I can recall games where I led the lynches of, like, a doctor day 1 and a cop day 2 etc, and people followed me because I had somehow garnered a reputation as a strong player*. (I don't quite recall which game - though DP's Feline Follies rings a bell? - but the mafia kept me alive for the entire game because I was helping them out so much.) But in the extremely unlikely case that Deception turned out to be town, I certainly wouldn't feel as though it was my fault that he got lynched. This would be in contention with Hy's outing the cop and then lynching himself as "worst pro-town play I've ever seen". By the accounts of the other players, Deception is not that bad of a player.
*Don't get me wrong, the reputation was undeserved back then, but I think I've earned it NOW. I will always be proud of my performance in the 10 year anniversary game, even if I never win another game of mafia. Come to think of it, we didn't even win that one, did we? |
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Amb
Amb the Hitched.
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| Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2012 2:22 am Post subject: 635 |
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| Mackay wrote: |
| Amb wrote: |
I have no idea whether Deception is lying or not. I tend to believe Mackay. But it is very easy for a townie to blindside themselves once they have a target. I have to fight so hard with myself once I latch on to someone.
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This is kind of silly. If Deception isn't lying now, he has been lying to us for the rest of the game. He has stated things which are in direct opposition to one another. I'm completely astounded that we're apparently OK with this as a town group.
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It's not silly. I haven't seen for myself the lie yet. Give me some time, and I will research it for myself. But not for at least 24 hours. |
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Captin Aniima
Daedalian Member
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| Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2012 2:45 am Post subject: 636 |
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| Amb wrote: |
| 1. Captain Aniima: Possible scum. Definite lurker. 7 posts to date. Only post of any content is when he feared being lynched. A player aiming to survive only, not find scum. |
Amb:
a. I am looking for scum even if my ways are more quiet than yours.
b. I am a girl. (Thanks rm I just wanna put it out one more time I dont really care most of the time I just have a tendancy to go "Who is the he that player x is talking about when he was talking to me?")
Sorry, yesterday I was under the same circumstances as Sentran and when the connection came back I checked the site but was beyond tired and decided not to post and just go to bed. I am up for a name claim.
here goes nothing:
Sandra Diaz-Twine.
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Just sayin... The sky is blue. |
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jadesmar
Bad Puppy
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| Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2012 2:49 am Post subject: 637 |
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| I am Bob Crawley. |
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Captin Aniima
Daedalian Member
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| Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2012 2:50 am Post subject: 638 |
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Shoot hit the submit button too soon.
unvote: Sentran
I'm still watching you but after reading through the ISO's a couple of times I cant decide who is more scummy. Its best to remove my vote for now and possibly vote for you again if it comes down to it.
_________________
Just sayin... The sky is blue. |
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jadesmar
Bad Puppy
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| Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2012 3:05 am Post subject: 639 |
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Here's a goodie from Wiki
| http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sandra_Diaz-Twine wrote: |
| Diaz-Twine was placed on the Villains tribe, and in the first episode, when host Jeff Probst asked who believed they were on the wrong tribe, Diaz-Twine was quick to point out that she did not think she should be on the Villains tribe. During the first reward challenge, Diaz-Twine tore off the top of Jessica "Sugar" Kiper. This, according to Cirie Fields, solidified why she was chosen as a villain. |
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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| Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2012 4:09 am Post subject: 640 |
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Well, I will reiterate that I think we are just on different sides and neither can budge. As I read over this more recent post of yours, Mackay, I realized that I really don't want to give on Deception. I also want to win, and I don't think Deception is the way to go. I could maybe lynch Zag, but I figure many think he is somewhat of a bystander in all of this.
Honestly though, I can't shake wanting to lynch ralphm. His most recent post is straight up information (like much of what he has given so far), and the one before that says some more theoretical stuff about his play and repeats things that have been said. The concluding vote on Deception for him being scum instead of cult feels weird to top it all off.
Anyway, I'll keep discussing whatever, but I'm going to keep decision making to a minimum until we finish Amb's claim list. Maybe that will turn up something new.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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