SURVIVOR MAFIA- TOWN WINS reunion show

[Zag]

[Jedo the Jedi]

The plot thickens, eh?

This is too much. Let's at least finish the name claim business. I, like Mackay, have some speculation on the names, but I want them to finish first. Additionally, I'm more inclined to lynch one of the cross-claimers than to sort out the Zag/Deception business.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Deception]

I honestly have no idea what Zag is talking about. I... guess he WAS converted to the cult? That would make sense, since he doesn't trust his confirmed town mason partner.

Sigh, this is no good.

I guess we should Vote Zag now since he'll just add one to the number of mafia at LYLO.

Lets pray that some other role does something to help us differentiate between Sentran/Jadesmar at night.

Mackay: I wasn't saying that I knew he'd make it, I said that that was the plan.

[Amb]

Claims:

We have a problem here
Jadesmar: Bob Crowley
Sentran: Bob Crowley

Claimed a Villain
Captain Aniima: Sandra Diaz-Twine
ralphmerridew: Benjamin Coach Wade

Ok claim
Jedo the Jedi: Yau-Man Chan
Amb: JT
Mackay: Cirie Fields


Haven't claimed (unless I missed it)
Zag (Claims unconfirmed Mason with Deception)
Deception (Appears to have backed that up)
The Great Crep'er

So we need those claims out now!

In the meanwhile, I believe we have 2 scum out in the open. That being ralphmerridew and the other being Jadesmar/Elethiomel. Then the final scum* is either Aniima or one of the non claimers.


* I am only assuming 3 scum. I have no clue the real number.

To me the best course of action is ralphmerridew, because his claim is a perfect mafia goon under the Lordship of Russell Hantz. Had Hatch not been the cult leader, I'd have picked him as the other possible GF.

If we lynch Jadesmar/Elethiomel, then we stand a 50/50 chance that we hit town, and we give the mafia time to find hidden immunity idols if we do. And while they haven't really been mentioned much in this game to date, they do exist. My role states that they do. SO I'd be much more inclined to vote a claimed villain. In the TV series Sandra was cast as a villain but turned out good. In the TV series Coach was cast as a villain, thought himself good but never was. In the same way that I wanted MNOWAX lynched, I want ralphmerridew lynched.

Our scum are (IMNSHO) ralphmerridew (lackey to the GF) and Jadesmar (His lurking but posting style, and searching for roles to claim online) indicate scum to me. And in theory that will leave us 1 or 2 mafia after that, and 1 cult. And I have NO clue how we can catch a cult member except by randomness.

The Zag/Deception thing is intriguing: But we have to vote the name clash, or the Coach name-drop first.

[Amb]

Creper claimed Boneham. I forgot about that, being back on day 1.

[Amb]

I just reread my role. It doesn't mention immunity idols, it mentions immunity on a different basis to what I thought. That's what happens when you don't look back at it for a long period... Eitherway, I still expect people to be able to find or already have hidden idols. And the people with them are likely to be scum (?) maybe?

[Mackay]

Wow Amb, we approached this pretty differently.

My feelings on the claims are that the 'goodness' of the characters, while helpful in the absence of other evidence, should probably not be the basis for our judgment calls. Two main reasons:
a) I would've probably tried to lynch someone who claimed Phil Sheppard; and
b) not everyone is necessarily telling the truth about their rolenames.

The claims themselves, on the other hand, have fallen into two distinct categories for me, and there is one person's role claim that fits into neither. I suspect that this person is lying about their rolename (though as I disclaimed before, the theory is a bit outguess-the-mod-ish). I'm going to hold out for Deception and Zag's role claims - I assumed we would have them by now.

If you want me to just explain I will, but waiting means Deception and Zag cannot tailor claims to make themselves fit (either to help themselves or to sabotage the player in question), as well as the two extra claims lending either more or less certainty to my speculation.

Deception, please post your role name. Zag, if you're around you can probably go ahead, but I don't know whether everyone else would prefer Deception to go first? I'm assuming that since you're linked it's probably fine either way.

BTW Amb, if you think that a Coach claimer should be lynched because of Coach's association with Russell, then it is pretty misleading for you to simultaneously propose the lynch of the person claiming to be Sandra. (For the non-watchers, the two absolutely despised one another and had an adversarial relationship through the entirety of the Heroes vs Villains season.)

[Zag]

I am Colby Donaldson. Since Deception has felt free to say what he likes about me, much of which is untrue, I'll tell you that he is Jerri Manthey (at least, that's what my role PM says).

[Mackay]

Zag, . It's not a surprise to me that Deception has been lying again, but I've kind of got to admire his chutzpah.

When do you think Deception is likely to have been compromised? From an outside perspective it looks like night 2.

For the first time I'm willing to think that maybe both of you aren't cult together - not so much because of anything you have or haven't done, but because Amb (who would have made a delicious night 1 cult target IMO) really seems like he is bending over backwards to undermine or redirect any suspicion targeted at Deception. When I see town discussion that looks like:

Deception: (says something)
Deception: (says the opposite to that thing)
jadesmar: Lynch all liars
Deception: Sorry I lied guys, it was totally pro-town
Mackay: Lynch all liars
Deception: But my lying was pro-town lying, for realz
Mackay: (points out behaviour that indicates the opposite of what Deception is saying)
Deception: nuh-uh
Mackay: Hey guys, Deception is lying
Mackay: guys
Mackay: hey guys
Mackay: Guys Deception lied and admitted to lying, and now I'm pretty sure he's lying again
Amb: Hmm, I'm not sure Deception has lied, I'll want to reread. But not now.
Zag: I'm Deception's mason partner and he's lying about everything.
Amb: Hey look it's Coach!

, then I start to worry about whose interests he has in mind.

FOS Amb. Bah.

[Jedo the Jedi]

Jadesmar: Bob Crowley (winner)
Sentran: Bob Crowley (winner)
Captain Aniima: Sandra Diaz-Twine (winner twice)
ralphmerridew: Benjamin "Coach" Wade (runner-up)
Jedo the Jedi: Yau-Man Chan (final four)
Amb: James "JT" Thomas (winner)
Mackay: Cirie Fields (final four, runner-up)
The Great Crep'er: Rupert Boneham (3x repeat)
Zag: Colby Donaldson (runner-up)
Deception: Jerri Manthey? (3x repeat)

Deceased:
Jedo the Jedi: Phillip Shepherd, town (runner-up)
Garou_Kinfolk: Stephen Fischback, town (runner-up)
itisally: Rob Cesternino, sk (runner-up)
MNOWAX: Richard Hatch, cult (winner)
LifeinMomLand: Jessica "Sugar" Kiper, town (runner-up)

So, here's the updated list pulled from Amb's previous list. (Therefore, mistakes should be attributed to him. ) The parentheses information is what I found on wikipedia.

Anyway, from the dead people we see that all of the town members are runners-up. This may be a decent starting point for weeding through claims for scum. The kink in that plan is Amb (unless he isn't what Garou thought he was). Additionally, it's interesting to me that two people would claim somebody I was thinking for a scum name. That's the only trend I've noticed, so out-guess the mod probably won't fly easily.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Mackay]

[Mackay]

Wow, I spent way too long writing that post.

A minor amendment to the one you made, Jedo: Cirie is also a three-time player, though she went out very early in HvV.

I can't help but notice that Yau-Man stands out as an underachiever in your list, too.

[Mackay]

Actually, I'll still vote for one of Elethiodesmar/Sentran rather than Jedo if we go after mafia rather than cult. It makes the most sense, especially now that Zag has confirmed that he cannot actually investigate (He could be lying, but as he is less likely to do so gratuitously than his mason partner, I'm inclined to believe him).

[Zag]

[Mackay]

I don't really think it would pass forward. I was thinking more about the possibility of a backup recruiter?

I thought you might know because it appeared that Deception changed his tune between day 2 and day 3 - an outcome which would not be possible if MNOWAX was the only method by which the cult could gain followers.

[Jedo the Jedi]

I knew you were going to think mine was the odd-man-out. Are you sure this isn't some prejudice in which you already view me as scum so you find ways (consciously or not) of making sure I continue to fit that?

The list was slightly simplified by myself. My character appeared another time, but he was out early. The 3x repeats also had notably early exists in a season or two.

I think we should pick between Elethiodesmar/Sentran today, and if we lynch a town, any vig we might have should target the other tonight. I will be landing on Elethiodesmar. unvote; vote: Elethiomel if I haven't already for that slot.

Also, I do feel Mackay is probably town, but I want to share a fun anecdote from the wiki.

[Sentran]

[Deception]

I confirm my ex-partners' name. I am Jerri Manthey and he is Colby Donaldson.

Can I just say that if the case on me is that I am cult with Zag, then can we get Zag first? Besides, if your cult theory is correct, then HE is the one who can continue to recruit.

[Amb]

[Mackay]

My bad for the misreading, I thought you were offering up Sandra and Coach as "claimed villans" that you would be inclined to lynch. I looked back and saw my mistake. Sorry.

Seeing as you are set on the Villains tribe being a Thing, how about we lynch Deception? That should keep us both happy.

[Mackay]

[Jedo the Jedi]

[Sentran]

Moderator, can we please get a votecount?

For obvious reasons, my first choice for lynch is Elethiomel. Failing that bandwagon, I agree with the reasoning on voting rm, and it sounds like Coach is one of the more villainous of the claims. I'm still undecided on Deception, as his claim is backed up by another player. He has, however, easily moved past Zag in terms of scumminess (unless both of them are in fact scum).
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Zag]

[Deception]

...
I am mafia based on the name claim? If I was mafia and cared I could have looked up Survivor people and made up names for both Zag and I.

Also, if scum were all given "bad guy names", meaning that the names correlate to the flavor, then they'd also be given safe claims. This makes no sense.

[Amb]

Hang on? Colby and Jerri as masons? THat doesnt even make the remotest sense. They hate each other!

One of the Bob Crawley's is scum, and we have the ideal chance to hold off on making that decision until tomorrow.

Coach is scum no question. I have watched most seasons, and wish I had known about season 1. There is, like Richard Hatch, no circumstance in which Coach is town. He was deluded to think he was good, but never ever was.

Sandra could be scum, and/or could be town. She turned out to be miscast in the Heroes and Villains series. I'd not be lynching her until we know about the others.

I still hold that the greatest value lynch right now is ralphmerridew, and this will give Elethiomar and Sentran more time to argue their cases. I'm probably not going to be swayed, because Jadesmar's game to date appears to be a 'jokester-likeable bloke' ploy

[Amb]

I keep going back and forth in my mind about the Colby-Manthey masonry. I can't imagine UM would make such a basic error of putting two enemies in a masonry. But on the other hand that's exactly what would happen in a tribe. And exactly what happened in the shows with those two.

So now I'm thinking: What about Mackay. She's been rabid on the so-called lie. What if it's a distancing ploy? What if her sudden suspicion of me, is because I'm starting to get close to her team mates? Cirie is a pretty good claim though. I'd expect Cirie would have a better chance of being in the game than Jedo-Yow-man-chow (however you say/spell that). In short I don't know. But I'm throwing it out there.

But can we please start getting consensus? I really think we need to lynch Coach. And I'm prepared to ask people to follow me knowing that I got it right with MNOWAX. As a backup, Elethiomel should be lynched - but since she can't be lynched today until she speaks - I think she is just staying quiet. I will PM the mod about that loop-hole because it needs to be closed.

[Mackay]

A distancing ploy from whom? Deception? You're free to test that by lynching him, as I suggested. Instead, you continue to protect him.

His "so-called lie" was one he admitted himself. It's not "so-called", it's a lie. This entire game day, he has been saying things completely inconsistent with his game before today. His own so-called mason partner came out to discredit him.

Why do you keep protecting him?

In addition, in my opinion as a Survivor watcher, Jerri Manthey is more unambiguously villainous than Coach. Coach, for me, is about on the same level as Phil Sheppard. On top of THAT, as you have mentioned, Zag has stated that they are not mutually confirmed. There has to be a reason for that, given that the other mason group - YOUR mason group - apparently was mutually confirmed. That indicates something wrong with their masonry, possibly a villainous member.

So here is an opportunity to test both of our theories, plus one of jadesmar's. I think that if cult recruitment is still possible, Deception is cult and therefore, as a member of a still-recruiting cult, needs to go (I guess he's scum otherwise, no pro-town player plays the way he has). You think people with villain names are the mafia. We have a perfect opportunity to test both, and we know it's basically impossible for us to be hitting a pro-towner. =)
jadesmar speculated about the possibility of the recruiter being the last person to join the alliance. While I think this is unlikely, Deception's insistence that we vote Zag before him and your completely incomprehensible and ongoing protection of him lend support to the theory.

Consensus vote: My vote will stay on Deception unless there is a town consensus to vote for *sigh* Elethiomel. I hate that my opinion on this was influenced by Undercover Monk himself, but it was. I wish UM hadn't decided to post about it in the thread, he should have dealt with it in private and not influenced the town IMO.

Oh yeah, and my suspicion of you is because of your continual refusal to see obvious lies on the part of the most anti-town player in the game - either ignoring, minimising, or dismissing all of his lies and inconsistencies. Your play is generally very open-minded - when I want a broader perspective than what I am giving myself, I read your posts - but you have shown a highly uncharacteristic refusal to address or even acknowledge what he is doing. Given that I think he is cult, and that you would have made a good choice for cult recruitment, it is a reasonable supposition.
It wasn't really sudden, I just kept dismissing it because I thought there was no way it wasn't Zag and Deception, and I can't imagine that the cult started with two people if there was a backup plan for recruitment. Therefore, I didn't say anything until you became scummier (cultier?) than Zag.

[Mackay]

[Mackay]

Whoops, Rupert too. My bad. The same applies to him as it does to Jerri - he might be the single most famous Survivor player ever (heroic rather than villainous though, my personal opinion of the overgrown man-baby aside), and he is also a three-time performer.

[Jedo the Jedi]

It's still only weak in your postulation about the roles.

And if my claim is weak, it's not my fault either. It's the role I was given.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Mackay]

[Deception]

[Amb]

I think we are getting too far ahead of ourselves.

Mackay appears to be protecting some people oddly, while attacking others venomously. I don't think the so-called lie is such a bad thing. I agreed with Mackay a lot earlier, but her reactions now make me think more than just twice. She wasn't on my radar to just recently, but now she is. Had she not overreacted, and started to try turn things on me acting style I think I'd have carried on thinking her town. I was still thinking twice about Jedo instead, but Mackay is pushing back too hard.

I think Jadesmar was scum. I think Sentran is town. But because it could go the other way: Then we should leave lynching them, even if only for a day. We have that luxury.

I think Coach is without shadow of a doubt scum. He has been cast as evil in 3 seasons. And in all 3 he thought himself a hero. But clearly wasn't. He was also the lackey and pawn of Russell Hantz in one season. He would make the perfect goon. ralphmerridew should be our lynch. And only if no-one is willing to actually carry this out, then Jadesmar/Elethiomel should be. But I'd be prepared to gamble that rm is a better lynch. He hasn't contributed. He has claimed an evil character. And he hasn't given us any reason to be kept right now.

I think Jerri is possibly scum, but directly or indirectly Zag is tied to Jerri and that's enough for a stay today. Otherwise we will never get a lynch completed. Too many leads is as bad a problem as not having any right now.

Then the next day we will have a bucket load of information. We have the names out in the open. We will have (IMO) 1 scum down.

My preferred Lynch order is thus:
1. ralphmerridew - I think there is no question.
2. Elethiomel - Followed by Sentran if we screwed up
3. Either Deception or Mackay. (I'm tending towards Mackay now)

Then I think we will be in a very good position to reassess the game!

[Mackay]

Look. Can I just ask you to explain to me why you think Deception is worthy of protection?

I can't stop you from suspecting me (though given that you are a Survivor fan it is HIGHLY questionable), but you're just being like "no, you". You're accusing me of exactly what you're doing. I assume that you are insinuating that I am protecting ralphmerridew. I don't know how to address that other than that I can't see the merit in lynching someone with a functionally identical character to the person who turned out to be our town cop. Especially based only on your say-so, and especially as you are calling suspicion on a pro-town rolename out of the other side of your mouth.

Why do you keep using the phrase "so-called lie"? If you're going to continue to try to use your language to try to influence the town, at least back it up rather than repeatedly saying we'll talk about it later. It's not a matter of opinion. It's not as though I've launched a big smear campaign based on nothing. Here,

[Amb]

My only crime is questioning whether or not you might be town. THere is nothing wrong with that at all. Now stop protecting your mafia buddies ralphmerridew and Elethiomel, and let us get on with the job at hand.

Mod, Votecount?

[Mackay]

Will you answer my questions, please?

[Sentran]

Don't you just hate it when someone you suspect, even a bit, begin to make sense to you? Although Amb appears to be ignoring Mackay's questions, I agree that she is a bit gung-ho on an unconfirmed scumread. ralphmerridew seems much more plausible. As Amb pointed out, the loophole left to Elethiomel allows silence to be an unending defense. Until El posts, I'll Unvote, Vote: ralphmerridew.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Undercover Monk]

sorry guys internet acsess is spotty on weekends for me. so a votecount wont be coming til I get to work Monday morning. when E replaced in she??? told me she???wouldnt be adble to post til after the weekend if she doesnt post by wednesday I will remove the lynch hold.
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The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Captin Aniima]

Hello people of the Survivor game. I have been watching the thread and am going to go with not voting.

UM please remove my vote if I have any right now.

I hope you are able to pin mafia. Have a good week and next weekend

Starting tomorrow (monday 7-16-12) I will be on my way to an event site. It is very unlikely that I will have access to the Internet. I get away from the site on monday (7-23-12) but its not likely I will post instead I will probably post Tuesday (7-24-12). I have sent a message regarding this to the mod but its possible the message turns out unclear to him do I am recapping for the Mod and for my fellow players.
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Just sayin... The sky is blue.