SURVIVOR MAFIA- TOWN WINS reunion show

[Elethiomel]

Zag... what you're saying is that Deception has been "lying", while you have only been "stretching the truth"?

Furthermore, you valiantly "admitted" that it was a stretch, while he was "caught" in a web of lies? (In reality, Deception also told us he had been lying, just like you did.)

To answer your question though, you have both been lying, so I distrust both of you. Mackay's theory that you are both scum seems quite plausible to me. I just cannot help commenting in particular on your rhetoric, because it is such a fascinating display of double standards.

Anyway, to repeat my earlier question... how about posting your communication in here so we can all see for ourselves?

[Mackay]

Can anyone tell me whether mafia are notified of attempted cult recruitments/capable of being recruited? That could explain Deception's meltdown on day 2.

Then again, I'm starting to think that I've been so focused on Deception's specifically having stated "if MNOWAX is cult, then Zag is cult" that I have failed to give enough weight to alternative theories. There is no reason that Deception could not have told one extra lie, at this point.

Given what Amb has said about the communication between Zag and Deception being inconsistent with what he and Garou had, I am just now starting to come to the conclusion that it is more likely for Deception and Zag to be mafia than cultists. I cannot conceive of a game mechanic in which one set of masons is given the ability of day communication, and the other is not - unless the second group have abilities, which Zag has denied.

So we have Zag and Deception, who have openly admitted to being on a team together. One has openly admitted to lying to the town, and alternately attacked and defended his teammate. The other has admitted to "stretching the truth" and is making claims about his capabilities that are inconsistent with what we know about the existing masons. These are not the behaviours of pro-town players.

I think that Zag or Deception is a better lynch than Elethiomel or Sentran, because they are 100% anti-town, not just a 50% chance - and I'm starting to think they're the mafia we're looking for.
And in the most likely scenario in which they're not (i.e. there are still two cultists hanging around, one of whom seems to have switched after the death of MNOWAX), they might pose an even larger danger to the town.

In addition, I think that lynching one of Zag/Deception yields more information than Amb believes he will get from a ralphmerridew lynch. Once we know the nature of the "mason" group from, for instance, a Zag lynch, we will have all the information we need about Deception, and (IMO) a link to Sentran that would tip my scum-o-meter back in the opposite direction with regard to the Sentran/Elethiomel dilemma if they are indeed a mafia group.

I can be convinced to switch my vote, but only to Zag, Elethiomel, or Sentran - so far at least. Amb, you are free to try and convince me to vote for ralphmerridew, and I can at least promise that I will listen with an open mind (Just calling me scummy and ignoring me probably won't do it, though), but it will be hard enough to convince me to vote for someone other than Deception, let alone anyone outside of the four players I mentioned.

[Zag]

[Mackay]

[Mackay]

Two random thoughts before bed:

- I don't "get" Jerri Manthey as an investigator. Even the most tenuous name-role connection we've seen so far (Sugar) made some sense, as Sugar was constantly ruining other players' plans.

- Apparently "I'm just going to ignore you from now on" is the defense du jour. I can't say I like it.

[Deception]

So. Much. To. Read.

And the main offender isn't even Crep'er.

[Zag]

[Elethiomel]

I took another link at Sentran's posts and want to comment again on his strange attitude towards Zag. I already mentioned post 284, where he unvoted Zag at what seemed to me like the ideal time to push him harder:

[Amb]

The feeling I get from the above post can be summed up with Elethiomel's quote "This is all very fishy."

The reason being: If Elethiomel *IS* Bob Crowley, then Sentran is scum end of story! So it seems strange that the post is constructed as though Elethiomel only thinks Sentran might be scum. I understand that Eleth will be trying to show why Sentran is a better lynch that her. It's the tone of the post that seems wrong to me. It's almost like she isn't convinced.

[Jedo the Jedi]

On the one hand, Eleth is presenting a pretty good case. On the other hand, I understand the feeling Amb just pointed out. That's the sort of attitude I have when I'm scum. However, in this instance I can explain it by saying Eleth knows he is on thin ice, so he doesn't want to be too aggressive and have people come down on him.

Anyway, it seems like the thirtieth time I've "made a decision" (which is uncommon for me), but I'm thinking Zag is a good choice. It shows us a connection with Deception and Sentran (the latter giving info on Elethiomel), and it should satisfy Mackay some. It probably doesn't do as much for Amb, but it might be common ground enough. For myself, it lets us test Jedo1's reads on Day 1.

unvote; vote: Zag
_________________
Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Amb]

What do I have to do to convince you Jedo that lynching rm is a much better idea?

Zag/Deception is as random as Sentran/Elethiomel. We might get lucky. We might not.

But rm has a much higher chance in that: He has played like classic scum, and has claimed a discernably evil character. It gives us a night then to possibly garner info on the others.

We don't know what town abilities are still out there, but the fact there was an SK, Cult and Mafia, means that town MUST have balancing abilities: Tracker, Doc, Backup Cop, etc. Theres a good chance that there are still town (or culted) power roles. We don't like cult, but they hate mafia as much as we do.

[Amb]

To summarise: I think Elethiomel is the scum, and Sentran is not. But because I can't be sure, I think I'd rather go with the player who has shown scum traits and claimed an Evil Villainous role. I think the situation between Zag and Deception is the same. I can't decide. So again, I'd rather go with the claimed Villain, and then reassemble my thoughts (and maybe finally get round to addressing Mackay's questions) tomorrow.

[Elethiomel]

Amb, you are right, Sentran is scum, end of story, The part that I'm less certain about is that Zag is also scum. That's my dilemma; I know that Sentran is our best lynch today, but I also recognize that Zag may be a better bet for reaching a consensus. That's why I am focusing on the link between them. If you think the case for that link is compelling, then perhaps I can persuade you to follow me one step further and lynch Sentran instead.

That's not to say I would feel bad about lynching Zag; but I know that lynching Sentran would be a safer bet.

BTW - I'm a he, not a she. (No offense taken; I just didn't bother to clarify it earlier.)

[Amb]

Oh sorry.

[Jedo the Jedi]

It's also just the five of us talking...
_________________
Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Elethiomel]

If you're looking to lynch for information, lynching Sentran or me will give you a 99% scum to lynch next, if you miss.

If you're looking to maximize your chance of hitting scum today, lynching Deception or Zag is an even better option, since at least one of them has to be scum (they are contradicting each other, so this is established), and they could also plausibly both be scum. (Which is technically possible, but IMO much less plausible for Sentran and me.)

I just don't see how lynching ralphmerridew can compete with any of these options. It just delays the inevitable, and carries a significant risk of being a mislynch that puts us in a deeper hole.

[Amb]

It doesn't carry the risk you say it does, and it makes me think you are defending your own scum buddy when you say that. Why in the blue blazes would we NOT lynch a person who has claimed a villain! And one that was already behaving like scum before hand.

To me the mafia are: 100% rm, 80% Elethiomel. And then after that probably Mackay/Deception or Zag.

So I could get on the bandwagon you suggest of splitting you and Sentran by voting: Unvote; Vote Elethiomel

But it is NOT my preference. I gave this town MNOWAX, and I tell you - I'm giving you rm. I love the show, and I know UM does too. There is no chance he put Coach as a good guy. Not one. If there is anyone out there that can ratify that I actually can be quite good with my instincts on these things, then please do so. I am getting frustrated with the lack of movement on what is a pretty clear cut case. And we can resolve a LOT at dawn.

[Mackay]

Jedo, I just want you to know that I'm not completely bogged in to Zag/Deception - there's a good chunk of my not voting for Elethiomel/Sentran that can be attributed to indecision regarding which one of them to vote for.

I'm even open to voting for ralphmerridew and have asked Amb to clarify the case against him - unfortunately Amb's "argument" seems to consist of repeatedly expressing amazement/frustration that nobody is listening to him.

Amb, I am listening but you're not explaining.

Of course I'm willing to accept that Coach could be a villain. But in that case I'm surprised that rm didn't claim someone different. And the fact is, Phil Sheppard is a similar character to Coach who turned out to be our cop. These are only small things, but there is enough doubt there that I can't yet vote for him in good conscience in favour of our two counterclaimers and a confirmed liar.

I'm asking you to explain the case to me, to help me erase that doubt. You won't. You threatened me instead.

How can you behave this way and (a) consider it good pro-town play, and (b) act surprised that I started thinking you were a bad guy earlier?
I still want to agree with you but you're not even giving me the chance. Do you even want ralphmerridew lynched, or do you just want to act like a martyr?

[Amb]

My case against rm is two fold. Firstly he is playing as a lurker-scum. His posts were of low content, except when pressured to actually post, and then gave a great post against MNO when it already looked like the town was going to go that way. Then on top of that, he claimed an evil character. Together the evidence matches that of a scum. And quite strongly so because of the role. See while I think Mackay is scum, it's more of a gut thing. If we have to break one of the deadlocks, then I'd go Elethiomel for the exact same reason that I was voting rm. It's Jadesmar jokester/no content post that smacked of someone trying to be likeable.

My take on Zag and Deception - which I gave a lot of thought to. They are masons. They have been put together as a tribe would be constructed on the show. Ie they claimed Ogakor members from the same tribe. That's either really bad lying, or they really are who they claim. Maybe that's designed to make them wary of each other. Either way the town needed something to keep cult, SK & mafia at bay - and two mini mason groups seems the best balance to me. We had a cop and a roleblocker too. I'd bet bottom dollar we have a back up cop (and they need to stay silent to make sure they survive) and they might be our best bet of finding cultist(s).

The problem we face right now, is that we got a LOT of information from the claims. More than I ever dreamed we would. Since I cannot get traction on rm, I'm prepared to surrender that for now. But he is scum. I'd much prefer to go Elethiomel over Sentran, simply because Jadesmar's game is classic "like-me, I'm funny" scum.

[Elethiomel]

[Amb]

This is true.

THis is spinning around my head so much. What I posted before cannot possibly be correct actually (about Zag and Deception) because it violates occams razor. THe simplest explaination is that one of them must be scum. The entire argument rises from the fact that I think I have pre-decided on who 2 scum are, and in reality I don't know for either. I was so sure. Aaargh. I have to actually step back because I'm not sleeping for thinking about combinations and trying to second guess UM.

[Amb]

Its the middle of the night for me, and I cannot sleep. The more I ponder, the more I realise that I have blindsided myself. I was so certain that Mackay was overreacting to my accusing her of being scum, that I had caught her dead in the water and thus her logic was poisoned. This isn;t smart thinking by me at all.

Deception claimed Jerry Manthey if I remember rightly. And if my case against rm is based heavily on the name claim, then my case for saying Deception is innocent is therefore wrong. If we lynched Manthey, and 'she' turned up town then in all probablity rm is town too despite his lurker behavior.

This all comes up from the basic question of asking myself "What if I am totally wrong about rm". And the reality is, if I am wrong, then my entire case logic is built on the wrong thing. After the name claim, the obvious lynch should be Jadesmar. But it is correct to say Sentran might not have seen the name clash. So for now, I'm gfoing to step back and Unvote.

Now maybe I can sleep.

[Undercover Monk]

Amb has several times requested a deadline and prods. the prods I will do the deadline I will think about. My problem with a deadline at this stage is that arguments are being made for like 5 different lynches. If I set up a hard deadline when the town can not come to even a ghost of a consensus then I am directly influencing the game. I would rather get a majority out of you guys as opposed to someone being lynched with only 2 or 3 votes. However if nothing much has changed by Friday night I will put up a soft deadline of some time next week. Votecount and prods to come. Carry On.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Deception]

I haven't caught up, but how adept is jadesmar with the flavor?

The name thing is bugging me.

[Zag]

Just as with work, a deadline can help clarify thinking.

[Deception]

[Jedo the Jedi]

[Amb]

For the record, I asked the mod directly for a deadline, because I got a less than nice response the first time after posting in the thread. I wasn't expecting the mod to so nicely name-drop me. I wonder if he would have done that if the mafia asked for a deadline.

Anyway: After a sleepless night and lots of thought: I have revamped my stance a lot. I think I was overly fixated on some things.

1.Zag - Claims Colby Donaldson. A strong claim, but masoned with Jerri Manthey - this is just plain weird. Simplest solution: 1 or both are scum. A second mason group makes sense in survivor, but not really a likely scenario overall.
8.Deception. Claims Jerry Manthey. On thinking about this; If Manthey turns out to be town, then rm, in all probablilty is also town.
4.Captain Aniima Claims Sandra Diaz Twine. A villain who became a hero. I tend to think town.
3.Sentran - Cross claimed Bob Crowley.
7.jadesmar - Cross claimed Bob Crowley.
5.ralphmerridew. Claims Coach. Coach is evil. But probably town if Deception is, and probably scum if Deception isn't.
6.Apple Sauce Jedo the Jedi ghost. Claims Yau Man Chou (or however you spell it). Weakest claim by some distance. Lots of other good players eg Ozzy for UM to pick from.
9.The Great Crepper. Claimed Rupert Boneham on day 1, and has gone quite quiet. Of all the claims, this is quite possibly the mafia fake claim. (Assuming they have one)
10.Mackay. Claims Cirie Fields. I'm undecided about that claim. She is a good character to have in the game. That said, I poisoned all of Mackays posts in my mind. I have to reread them all from a fresh perspective.

In the meanwhile Vote Jadesmar/Elethiomel. Eleth has added a lot to this game, but he cannot overcome the fact that Jadesmar's posts read scum and Sentran's do not.

[Mackay]

[Amb]

I'm quite tempted to cast my vote at Deception. I personally would gain the following:

If Deception is town: Then rm is more possibly town, even with his posting style. That would remove the Coach=Evil argument, because Jerry=Evil.

If Deception is scum: Then rm is very likely to be scum in my eyes. (Again)

If Deception is scum: Then Zag is likely to be town. Otherwise he'd be pulling the same gambit that he pulled in the very last mafia game. And that failed miserably. Surely not.

It just happens that Jadesmar was a crossclaiming lurker. And that's going to be a real shame because I feel that Elethiomel has added something to this game. A spark if you will.

[Elethiomel]

[Undercover Monk]

Votecount and Deadline of Wednesday July 25 11:59pm

[Undercover Monk]

Starting from this post ralphmerridew is replaced by 3iff. rm pm'ed saying he had too much on his plate and needed a break from the GL. Thank you 3iff.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[3iff]

Hi, I'm 3iff. I'm an idiot for agreeing to do this.

Replacing in just before the weekend is bad timing. I have been following the game and I'm as confused as most of you seem to be. I will have to re-read the last few pages and I doubt I can post anything relevant until Monday.

[Elethiomel]

With a deadline just 5 days away, I will go ahead and claim my ability.

I can make fake immunity idols and give them to other players. According to the background information in my role PM, this is exactly what Bob Crowley is famous for doing.

So... who wants an immunity idol?

[Elethiomel]

With a deadline just 5 days away, I will go ahead and claim my ability.

I can make fake immunity idols and give them to other players. According to the background information in my role PM, this is exactly what Bob Crowley is famous for doing.

So... who wants an immunity idol?

[Amb]

Why would that be a town ability? Because that sounds like a scum ability to me...

[Mackay]

I suspected that this would be the case. I didn't want to say so before the claim was made (on the tiny chance that it would be something not idol-related), but I thought that there would be very little way to identify the ability's owner as Bob. An ability of Bob's basically had to be idol-related, but an idol-related ability need not necessarily be Bob. Unless...

Do you know whether a fake immunity idol would be identifiably fake?

Because fake idols would belong to/be associated with a MUCH smaller pool of players than real ones.

Is the ability unlimited? One per day?

(I'll answer your question next Eleth, just wanted to post about the most interesting development first.)

[Mackay]

[Elethiomel]