SURVIVOR MAFIA- TOWN WINS reunion show

[Mackay]

Hey, does anyone know if MNOWAX is a fan of the Survivor TV show? Like, from other Survivor-styled games or anything?

[Amb]

I assume you mean anyone other than me. But yes, I think he is.

[Mackay]

Why would I exclude you from the question? Actually, I wanted your feedback earlier about potential mafia members, because I can't figure out who would be in an alliance with Russell and Parvati. Any thoughts?

I was just wondering about MNOWAX's claim that he had a partner with the role of Rudy Boesch (I'd forgotten all about it till I read his posts). If he wasn't a Survivor fan it would be more likely that the cult started with two people. Thanks for the info!

[Elethiomel]

MNOWAX actually posted this two days ago, in the top GL'er thread:

[Amb]

[Captin Aniima]

Amv I don't understand why you would want me to investigate you a second time. Could you explain this theory to me?

Also I want to know why to me it sounds that Zag is thrilled to have a chance to lynch me.

Why do I have to be lynched? Im town so lynching me would only dwindle the numbers on top of that the cult recruits people right? So by the time we get to the day you say we will win it's more likely that town will lose and cult will win.

It makes me wonder if when you say "we will win!" you are actually talking about the cult.

Vote: Zag Your pro-town façade doesn't fool me.
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Just sayin... The sky is blue.

[Elethiomel]

Mackay, why did you protect MNOWAX on night 1?

[Mackay]

[Elethiomel]

Ok, that makes sense.

[Zag]

Could we get an official vote count?
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[Mackay]

Aniima, I've got to ask. Admittedly my vote for Amb is based just as much on his reaction to your claimed results as it is to said 'results', but I'm still kind of surprised you are not voting for him. You just claimed to have a probable cult lead on the guy.

Is it only Zag's eagerness to get two lynches between now and a future Amb lynch that puts him higher on your list? Because that seems to hint at a connection between the two anyway. Is it because of his insistence that you are a necessary lynch? Because you seemed happy to 'take one for the team' earlier this game day - though admittedly, the threat of a cult just became a lot scarier with a probable two members out there, and possibly more, so I can understand a change of tune on that front.

I mean, I'll cooperate with a Zag lynch. It's obvious that I believe Zag is cult too. If you and Eleth are pretty solidly set on it I will join you with my vote. But I've already been burned once by Deception. I'd rather go with the person that you are claiming an actual result on. That also helps us narrow your role down, to "cop or cult" vs "scum", depending on how Amb flips. A Zag lynch doesn't grant the town nearly as much information, and in the improbable-but-not-impossible case of an Aniima/Amb cult pair it potentially dooms the town.

I'd also like to know why, when you posted your list of suspects yesterday, your "pro-town" list included Elethiomel along with the people you claimed innocent results for? It seems like a bad idea for a cop to include someone they haven't investigated in a list they are likely leaving behind for the town to check if/when they die, and everyone else (well, except the dead one) to whom you assigned an alignment was someone you claim to have investigated.

I think I will have more thoughts about potential remaining mafia members when Jedo gets back and completes the picture with regard to what claims we're working with.

[Zag]

I am willing to lynch Capt A before Mackay, because I think both their claims are bogus and they are both scum. I am not willing to lynch the confirmed townie Amb first, even if I believed for sure that he is MNO's cultist recruit. If the cultist can still recruit, they would have already won; as long as he can't, we should wait to get him (If it IS he) until the scum are gone. We don't face night kills with a cultist.

In any case, I suspect that the cute accusation of Amb is just a ploy set up by the scum duo to push the lynch away from them. With one more night, we're at lynch or lose. If Capt A has guessed right and Amb is the cultist, then she and Mackay will claim a pro-town victory in rooting out the cultist, when really it's a pro-scum victory in arriving at lynch or lose. If she guessed wrong, you know that Mackay will try to point you back to me.

Let me say it more clearly: Even if Amb were to admit in the thread that he's the cultist, lynching him now would be a mistake. We have to find the scum, first. Pick one you think is scum, and vote for that person.
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[Mackay]

[Mackay]

Hey Zag, wasn't your entire case against me a couple of innocuous posts that even inexplicably-desperate-for-my-blood Amb didn't get behind, and

[Jedo the Jedi]

Boy, howdy! What a slog! I will present my reading of the past couple game days in rapid fire mostly, then I will post again with my thoughts on the most recent developments.

First of all, my trite and condescending remarks about how it is a wonder you guys made good decisions with all of the crap you guys were bogged down with in your attention.

[Jedo the Jedi]

So, I guess the best course of action is just to supply my reads on everybody and evaluate their claims as i go.

Elethiomel: Probably the most cleared person in my book. She does provide false idols which seems like a scum power, but most of her posts read genuinely town. The only way she is evil is recruitment (an unlikely target by MNO whom I believe could only have recruited once) or she and Sentran pulled a gambit (which I think is an unfruitful WIFOM argument because we just have to make decisions now about whom to trust). Status: Town

Amb: Amb is not scum anywhere in my book unless there were traitor masons, but I'm not going to invent some mechanic to frame him and just accept he isn't scum. Now, he would have been a reasonably decent pick for recruitment, but he did turn around right away and lynch MNO. The only way I will believe Amb was the cult recruit is if Aniima confirms she received a differently worded result for Amb, and only then if I believe Aniima's claim. Status: Likely Town

Captain Aniima: This one is tricky because she hasn't posted much. What I have read reads genuinely n00b town, but there isn't much available for analysis. The mark against her is definitely that she claimed cop when we have already had one. That is hard to evaluate (and no, I will not be sharing information that wouldn't have been available to a given other replacement of this slot). Ultimately, I would lynch Aniima before Mackay if it came down to whose claim is more believable. She is not a good cult recruit, in my opinion. Status: Possible Town

Mackay: The problem with good mafia players is they are good. The major mark against Mackay is the rm thing. On the other hand, she has claimed doc and had many more excellent posts which really do read like arguments for the town's best interest, even if some of them are largely based on unfounded paranoia. (I'll address that last below.) Status: Town

The Great Crep'er: He cannot be trusted. He lied. That's very much where I come down on it. It's a very convenient set of events surrounding him, and the logic was just so ass-backward. Plus, the point by Elethiomel which I highlighted in the above post gives me serious pause. I think he could easily be scum, and he was certainly one of the best options for cult recruitment. Status: Likely Scum or Cult

Unfinished, time out...
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Jedo the Jedi]

Stupid library timer. There's nobody else around! Anyway...

Zag: He seems like a good candidate for another scum, but only if we think he was a traitor of some sort. This is hard for me because he read scummy early, and that really hasn't changed. Elethiomel makes a good point that there seemed to be an obvious dichotomy between he and Deception, and one of them should be scum. Deception flipped town, so...He would be a fine cult recruit regardless because he and MNO like to play crazy gambits. Maybe that's too obvious, but maybe it's a double-back of some sort. Status: Null, leaning Cult

Now, if we are willing to believe there is a changing alignments mechanic, I think the choice is between Amb and Zag. In that case, I very much would vote Zag over Amb. Still though, meta-gaming and out-guessing the mod is a dangerous road.

Which leads me to Mackay. I need you to accept that if there is a cult who is still recruiting, that is a fault of the mod for an unbalanced game (assuming post-game knowledge does not reveal the balance). If we lose because of such a thing, you should not be ashamed. Therefore, drop it please. There is at most one cultist out there.

My list would look like this, with scummiest/most likely to be cult at the top:

Zag/TGC
Amb
Aniima
Mackay
Elethiomel
Jedo

From my view, there is at most two anti-town parties left making it 2/7. We can always No Lynch today and let whatever killing party there may be make a move. That could bring us to 4/6 town tomorrow assuming the cultist doesn't die overnight. Not bad odds. At least take this suggestion with the knowledge that I don't often suggest No Lynch as an option.

Furthermore, as one of the most highly suspected members of the living, I think Zag needs to share his little power at which he has been hinting with us. I'm sure it will just lead to more WIFOM about him, and I feel it was bait to make us ask and therefore let him endear himself to the town, but we need to know. After that, I don't mind completing the puzzle by sharing the rest of my role.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Jedo the Jedi]

Finally, and I'm sure you'll forgive the multiple posts, I may not post again for a few days. Getting internet to my new residence has been a fiasco, but the latest date is August 21. Going to the library is not very convenient, so I probably won't drag myself down there again until Friday or Sunday.

Do not end the day, anybody! I think it is important for the players to respond to my posts and for me then to respond back. We are close to end-game, so let's take it nice and easy.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Zag]

Mackay, if there's only one scum left, I still think it is you. I'm just not getting any traction on convincing people.

To the rest of you, I made essentially the same argument against Quailman in Jedo's game. If the rest of the townies had listened to me, we would have won. Even after I was killed, nobody went back and said, "Now that we know he was town, let's look again at his argument." And the town lost.

Jedo, I know you've had spotty access, so I'll review. If you think I'm barking up the wrong tree, I'll drop it. Here's what I saw. I was reading through the thread, looking for anything by or about ralphmerridew, who was our only known scum at the time. When I saw, on page 11 (or maybe early on 12) him do something mildly scummy, I immediately started looking for who is trying to make the sort of oblique defense of him that scum buddies tend to make. Then I found someone making exactly that sort of post, written by Mackay. Here is what I wrote. You can go back yourself to page 12 and look at the setup and what Mackay wrote. You'll recall that this is exactly how I spotted Q in your game.

[Amb]

I actually like Jedo's posts there a lot. They make sense. Btw: I know I am not cult and therefore Aniimaa is either lying or the mod screwed up. That is mainly why I am not worried about being lynched tomorrow to verify Aniima. My problem with Mackay is that her great 'town' posts feel like staged arguments to me. If I could shake that, then I;d be more willing to forgive the rm connection. But I just cannot shake it.

[Captin Aniima]

I think you guys might be a little too certain about Amb's scummy-ness. While its true that the notice stated he was not mafia and didn't state anything else it doesn't neccisarily mean that he is cult. Maybe UM got bored and decided to change it up.

I was just thinking that if I can stay alive one more night I can investigate one more time possibly Amb again to see if I get the same results. If I get an "Amb is town" then I know he's town and if I get an "Amb is not mafia then the answer is simple hes cult.

That's if I can make it through tonight. At this point in the game it is a big possibility I will be night killed. Since its a big possibility I could see why you would want proof by lynching me because it will get you answers faster. Even though I'm not fond of it going that way I am open to being lynched.

Unvote since I'm not to sure on Zag in the first place I'm not to thrilled on the idea of an arguement.
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Just sayin... The sky is blue.

[Zag]

[Mackay]

Jedo, my paranoia is almost always excessive, but it is never "unfounded".

There is a claim of an anomalous cop result on one of the most likely cult recruits, who reacted with an attitude of "fine, I guess, as long as you don't lynch me till tomorrow". The other likely suspect flails around trying to invent worst-case-scenarios that don't even match what he claims to believe while ignoring the pile of evidence linking him to the cult leader, and seems intent on derailing arguments against Amb as well as the ones against himself.

My fear might be based on insufficient proof, to yours, or unnecessarily alarmist, but it is not unfounded.

I also refuse to accept that we should resign ourselves to losing in the case of an unbalanced-in-cult's-favour game. I'm still holding out the hope of the mafia being of assistance if possible, as it obviously works to their benefit as well. I made several suggestions of varying likelihood about why a continuing cult may not have reached the required number to win yet. I don't think the odds are insurmountable, and I love a challenge.

With regard to your suspicion of Creper: I agreed all through yesterday. He lied and attempted to differentiate his survivalist lies from the ones told by Deception or MNO, as though the town was supposed to magically divine his intent.The fact that he used the same rhetorical techniques for his admitted fake claim as for his current one was deeply troubling. But as of today I am withholding judgment.

That said, I'm intrigued to hear what information you have. (And chalk me up for wanting to know about Zag's super-secret power too.)

If you feel that there is only one of each anti-town alignment remaining, would you be amenable to a Zag lynch? I would prefer Amb, based on the resulting information that would give us about Aniima's trustworthiness, and the fact that we have a tangible result - but I believe Zag is a cultist also. In a cult-based worst case scenario, we are at lynch-or-lose. In a mafia-based one, we would be at lynch-or-lose tomorrow, and there is less evidence that this could be the case. I feel like the prudent decision is to lynch a suspected cultist even if you feel it is an excessive measure. If there is one mafioso left, I want them around to kill a potential cultist. (If TGC is honest, then they have already tried.)

Also, can I just say that it is SO NICE to have you back, and that I missed your "voice" in here? I just wanted to say that because a) it surprised me how happy I was to see that you had posted, and b) usually when I toss a personal statement your way it's a snarky one. I thought I'd mix it up a bit. Welcome back! (sort of. Hope the 'net issue stabilises quickly.) =)




Aniima, is there the possibility that you can request a clarification from the mod? I know that it is kind of difficult because Monk wouldn't want to give said clarification if the "not mafia" was intentional, but I think he would be willing to clear it up if he did mean for it to say "town"/be consistent with the other nonmafia results.

I guess there is reason to be wary of trusting UM's PMs too much, e.g. "Bob Crawley", but if I got a result like that I would be all over it. If you can get a clarification, or at least request one, that seems like a better idea than re-investigating Amb. I can only guarantee your survival for one more night, and if there are still two mafia then you can track down at least one of them. Someone with a tendency toward excessive paranoia might consider "reinvestigating Amb" to be a dodgy way of avoiding having to come up with new results. Just so you know.

[Mackay]

Zag, here is another reason that a Mackay/Jedo scum team is unlikely:

If I were mafia with Jedo, then your argument against me makes no sense, as Jedo would have performed the kill.

In fact:

If I were mafia with Aniima, then your argument against me makes no sense, as Aniima would have performed the kill.

Oh hey, and:

If I were mafia with Elethiomel, then your argument against me makes no sense, as Elethiomel would have performed the kill.

etc.

If you are going to keep insisting that there are two mafia, you need to stop insisting that I am mafia. If you are going to keep insisting that I am mafia, you need to stop insisting that there are two mafia. (In this latter case, you should be helping the town find cultists, but you seem strangely uninterested in that.) Your "case" against me depends completely on the assumption that I am mafia on my own. You cannot then use that assumption to affiliate me with Aniima or Jedo or Elethiomel. I understand that you are desperate to discredit me, and that is why your logic lacks internal consistency. You need me to be mafia in every scenario you come up with in the hope that people will disregard my arguments. But ignoring both the arguments against you and the logical rebuttals to your assertions isn't going to work. I'm not the only one making them. You can't discredit everyone who expresses suspicion of you, though I can see that you are having a good go at it.

I can't help but notice that you are still making NO EFFORT WHATSOEVER to try to convince me of anything. In the case that there are two mafia, you need to convince me so we can begin eradicating them before it is too late. But you're not even trying. You're acting as though it is a desperate emergency, and you're not even trying to get the demonstrably unaffiliated town doctor on side. Your words and your actions stand in stark contradiction to one another. This is because your motives are not pro-town. Your motive (singular) is "no cultist lynches". Your intent is to distract, mislead, and obfuscate.

Personally, I don't know if there are two mafia, but given that I am not one it is a possibility. It really depends what their powers are/were. I guess a Jedo/Aniima teamup is possible (though in Aniima's place I'd make my fake result on him later in the game to make it seem less likely for him to be cult), but I find it less likely than I did earlier in the game - if there are multiple players involved I think TGC is more likely to be a factor. My opinion heavily depends on the information you and Jedo give us. It seems like Jedo believes his claim will yield a good amount of information, given the way he has been talking about it. I'm sure he is right, one way or the other. It will be easier to see which puzzle pieces don't fit once we have completed the set.

What's your ability, Zag?

[Elethiomel]

[Amb]

[Jedo the Jedi]

Zag, reveal your power.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Zag]

I've been thinking about how powerful some of the town roles have been, with a couple mason sets plus cop, redirector, and someone able to make himself immune. And the scum haven't shown up with significant abilities, though we don't actually know what a Mafia Flirt is.

All in all, I realize that it isn't out of the question that UMonk considered it balanced to start with 5 scum, which would mean that Mackay, Capt A, and Jedo are all scum, AND we are not only at lynch or lose, but we've been there for a while! If you imagine that they also have a limitation of a very specific ranking, where the lowest ranking member always does the kill, that would explain the success of TGC's redirect threat on Mackay.

If this is the case, then TGC saved our bacon when he redirected Sentran to 3iff. They would have woken up on day 4 with a clear majority if a townie had died on night 3.

Let's just lynch the obvious-scum Mackay and be done with it. After all, I'm NEVER wrong (just ask Beartalon ).

[Zag]

[Jedo the Jedi]

Now that that is taken care of, I can address things.

Zag, 1099: You have a remarkable ability of getting into the mindset of scum. This is taken into consideration. My counter would be 1) you might be the scum/cult trying to mislead me and 2) it's hard to believe there is no doc.

Aniima, 1101: Under no circumstances should you re-investigate Amb. Ask for mod clarification.

Zag, 1102: TGC admitted he could not redirect the target's action onto themself, so that's not an issue. As to why we had a mafia death alone, it is perfectly possible that TGC was making a gambit with Sentran. He lied once after all, why not this? Is it totally crazy to kill one of your own then frame your buddy? Yes, but it is fairly unassailable because everybody would think it improbable. As for no death last night, we have a doctor admitting to protecting the claimed cop. Just because TGC says the case is otherwise doesn't mean he's telling the truth.

As I was typing the above response, it occurs to me that "mafia flirt" might just be the sort of alignment changer role many have considered to exist. I don't want to cause extra paranoia, especially not from Mackay, but it's worth considering.

Mackay, 1103: I call your paranoia "unfounded" because it doesn't seem to me to be founded on anything present in the game. The fact that nothing suggests further cult recruitment--your previous evidence having been shown up with Deception's town alignment--and that general mafia theory and history regarding game balance point to cult recruitment having ceased has not deterred you resurfacing this theory of yours time and again. I feel like you have a starting assumption that the cult continued to recruit, so any "evidence" you can find to support your made-up assumption gets you going.

I'm competitive with you, and I would love to beat a possibly broken game, but I don't know it's broken and I will not play as if it is.

Right now, I am very amenable to a Zag lynch. As in any game of Survivor (from what I understand) there is a certain level of constant distrust. I'm trying to fight that down. Excluding cult member possibilities, I trust Elethiomel, myself, Amb, and Mackay. And that welcome back is...uncharacteristic. I'm assuming it's genuine, but you can confirm post-game.

Did anybody want to discuss my possibility of a No Lynch? Again, I don't offer it lightly.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Jedo the Jedi]

[Jedo the Jedi]

Thinking about it, I realize Zag makes a good point that we have noticed no considerable abilities of the mafia, so the third must be powerful or there are two more. Maybe we should compose a lost of powers to compare balance from what we know?

Anyway, even with another mafioso, I think two competing factions still keeps us about two days from Lylo.

And I still think Zag is not town.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Mackay]

Actually, if his power is lynch immunity (i.e. an idol), the lynch passes to the person with the next highest number of votes a la actual immunity idols in Survivor.

That's me currently, but despite the slight concern that causes me, I think it is probably not worth worrying about - firstly because we simply don't have the numbers to muster both a primary and secondary bandwagon if we assume they are working as a voting bloc of 2 (which I do assume), and secondly because flavour-wise, Colby Donaldson has never possessed a hidden immunity idol in the actual game of Survivor. He has won individual immunity, but I believe that we have already seen how those work with Amb's immunity powers (JT was even more of a beast than Colby).

If you feel that "[my] previous evidence" (i.e. the acknowledged link between this particular mason group - Zag in particular - and MNOWAX) was nullified by Deception's death, then you should not be voting for Zag. Unless you think he got his alignment changed by ralphmerridew? That seems less simple than the idea that he was recruited by the person whom we know could recruit.

In any case, if you honestly believe what you just said to me - that Deception's death means that the evidence is null - then you should be voting for the suspected cultist with the non-null evidence.

Amb.

Not only does it give us a great deal of information about not only Amb's culthood and Aniima's cophood, but in the case of Amb being cult, it tells us something vitally important about the cult numbers/recruitment. Zag has already started hedging along the lines of "well, if Aniima was scum and just happened to guess correctly about Amb", etc. He is already working to discredit Aniima's (alleged) cop results in the case of an Amb death.

In addition Amb, as the single player who was the least likely to be lynched today, is far less likely to have had an immunity idol played on him, resulting in my lynch, than Zag. I'm not going to pretend that that idea isn't influencing me a little.

I will still get on the Zag vote if those on it (particularly Eleth) still wish to proceed. HOWEVER, I do not want the town to become complacent when/if he turns up cult. I want it known in the case of my death-by-idol or nightkilling that I see a link between Zag and Amb, and believe that they have been less worried about revealing it this game day because they only needed to finish today to win. (If it's correct that they recruit every other night, landing Zag on night 1 and Amb on night 3, then they're up again tonight, giving them the numbers to win the game if the Zag lynch fails. If they have a substantial failure chance without Hatch, there is still a chance at victory for us.) Should they both survive today at my expense, I urge the mafia to kill one of them tonight, as the only way for the game to proceed without a cult victory.

It shouldn't even need to be said, but I'll clarify this anyway: if Aniima receives a clarification regarding her results stating that the difference in descriptions from UM was unintentional, I will remove my vote from Amb immediately (in this case, however, I will not necessarily switch to Zag. My belief in the danger posed by the cultists is - obviously - based on the idea that there are multiple members. If Amb is not a member of the cult, then we should be lynching mafia instead. And despite what you say, Jedo, my paranoia is always based on events/statements in the thread, not on role speculations [barring their revealing something about the speculator, of course]. Though yours is an OK one. I'm going to elaborate on the basis for my 'paranoia' in my next post).

I knew the welcome was uncharacteristic when I wrote it (hell, I acknowledged it), but I wanted to say it anyway. It came as a genuine surprise to me that I enjoyed reading your posts, but I didn't want to phrase it in such a backhanded way the first time.

I have more to say about Amb/Zag but I'll break it off into a separate post, as I might not get it written before work.

Still want to hear your abilities before I speculate too heavily about mafia.

[Mackay]

[Zag]

[Zag]

[Amb]

[Captin Aniima]

Just sent the clarification notice. Unless I'm sleeping I will post as soon as I get the results.
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Just sayin... The sky is blue.

[Mackay]

Wow, Amb and Zag were both super eager to jump on the insane/random cop possibility, weren't they? It's kind of funny, though:

[Mackay]

That said, I would like to hear more about this, Zag: