SURVIVOR MAFIA- TOWN WINS reunion show

[Elethiomel]

In a nutshell, the reason why I've been preferring Zag over Amb is that it still seems possible that Zag either started the game as scum, or was recruited by scum. I do agree with you that there's a very strong link between Zag and Amb, but that does not have to put them on the same team; they could, less plausibly, be cult and scum cooperating against town.

Your information about Phil Sheppard is new to me, though, and now I'm kicking myself for not considering the insane cop scenario. It's been too long since I played in a game that featured one. So that makes me a lot more inclined to believe Captin Aniima's claim, and adds more evidence against Amb. (And, ironically, means that we should probably applaud Jedo 1 for not claiming.)

If Aniima returns with a clarification from the mod that the "not mafia" result was intentional, I guess I'm willing to lynch Amb before Zag. So let's wait for that clarification.

Going away for the week-end, so it may potentially take until Monday for me to check in again.

[Zag]

I've been supporting Amb because he was cleared by his confirmed mason partner, as was I. I acknowledge that he might now be a cultist, and I totally get that, from your point of view, so might I, and I DON'T CARE! Not yet. We need to find the scum before we find the cultist.

If my nightmare scenario is true, and there are three scum left, then they are pretty clearly Jedo, Capt. A, and Mackay, and we are already at Lynch or Lose.

[Captin Aniima]

Zag I am not scum. I received the message from UM and he said that the wording meant nothing special. He didn't even realize that the message would seem different. It was just a mistake.
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Just sayin... The sky is blue.

[Mackay]

unvote: Amb

[Captin Aniima]

Its sad I thought we might have gotten something that would help us. Unfortunately since this is the case then I will just have to go back to square one.

Vote Zag
_________________
Just sayin... The sky is blue.

[Mackay]

That's not to say that Amb is necessarily innocent (roll your eyes at me all you like ).

The phrasing there is weird enough that I could see it as a kind of "you were only meant to be a mafia/notmafia cop and I forgot to word it that way until a nonmafia anti-town person came up", but obviously that's pure speculation and the only concrete evidence was that cop result so... yeah.*

The link with Zag is still quite telling to me, so I can't go back to disregarding the cult threat, but Zag is the obvious cult lynch now if we are planning to lynch cult. I think that I still am, as that retraction didn't reassure me like I thought it would, but I'm withholding my vote at least until we hear Jedo's information - I would like to end the day feeling as though I am informed. I'd prefer to hear Zag's, too (I just don't think it is worth Jedo withholding his).

Aniima, could you summarise your case against Zag for me? Who/who else do you think is mafia?

*It could also just be a lie, of course, but to get there would mean a serious blunder from a cultAniima in posting the whole "not mafia" thing, and I don't think a scumAniima would post the retraction. I'm not going to go crazy thinking about a third cultist (yet! ), it's just the earlier post of "Guys I'm sure UM really didn't mean anything by it, let's just vote Zag OK" that's not letting me disregard the idea altogether.

[Jedo the Jedi]

First, some theory.

Town:
Cop1
Mason1 (x2)
Mason2 (x2)
Roleblocker

Mafia:
Flirt (?)
Goon

Neutral:
SK
Cult Recruiter

Unconfirmed:
Doctor
Cop2
Idol Finder
Fake Idol Maker
Redirector

I think the Doctor is very reasonably real. Looking at balance, that would round-out the major town powers nicely. I will clarify my power later. For Mafia to have a reasonable chance, I think they need another person with a power or the Flirt is a recruiter. We should definitely discuss this more as my view is probably not the only one, but I also think we should ground some of our discussion in what is likely.

I really didn't want to reveal my power until Zag had revealed his or was lynched (in the Twilight phase), but I'll share so we can move forward together. I have a passive ability to find idols based on decreasing chances as the game progresses. I don't know if I take them from people or if I could reasonably just find one every night if I'm lucky. I can then use them on someone to protect them during the next game phase. (I can clarify if it works for the night phase, but I'm not sure at present.) I will not disclose how many I have, but I will gladly let you discuss how we should use any I might have.
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Mackay, 1113: I meant that Zag might be lynch proof, but it occurs to me that all immunity probably comes through idols (though Amb is apparently bulletproof).

[Jedo the Jedi]

After posting that, I realize that two sane cops makes a lot of sense to me in terms of balance if there was both cult and scum recruitment. It makes Aniima a bit more likely to be truthful in my mind. Just a thought before I go.
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Paragon Tally: 19 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[The Great Crep'er]

[The Great Crep'er]

[Zag]

[Amb]

Mackay isn't doing anything to help me want to unvote her. Jedo of course is right to say that having a doc in the balance is very reasonable, and in the face of no other claimant: I think that I will have no choice to unvote.

But that said: Mackay has been quick to accuse me of jumping at the chance of an insane/random cop - when she was earlier accusing me of jumping at the chance of believing a 2nd cop claim period. Why the change of line? My argument has been, and remains, if a cop fingers me - I cannot argue anything. You lynch me to verify the cop, and when the dust settles look at the possiblities second. I have very specifically NOT jumped at the cop claim, but rather left it be true or false. I couldn't do anything about it. Her arguments are twisting and manipulative and DO NOT come across as some one genuinely interested in finding scum. And that's what makes this so very very hard.

It does change things a lot now that it seems that UM has corrected and said Town. Provided the whole story isn't fiction, I'd like to hope that has put any chance of me being cult to rest.

Now who did Zag claim? Colby wasn't it. If his mason partner was Jerri and she was innocent then Zag should be clear. Unless his claim was a safe claim all along. If Mackay is to be believed as a doctor, then I have to revamp a lot of assumptions - and Zag being innocent is one of them.

I really have to say - I have found Jedo's posts of late to be very enlightening and useful - and they are really affecting my thinking now.

[Captin Aniima]

[Mackay]

[The Great Crep'er]

Okay, I am tiring of having to filter through the posts, getting all the fragments to respond to, because, as you all know, once I get started on a bit it tends to be a bit recursive about my opinions and generates a lot more hard to read fluff and less succinct posts. So as a base, I'll go off since my last post, trying to kind of "bite-size" my ideas.

1059:Bah post
1060:Jedo --- Mackay suspicious due to her lack of support on an rm lynch? Easy to armchair quarterback. And considering his shock on Sentran's reveal, it seems odd how he treats it. It is a struggling fencesit, to me. He is expressing somewhat of an opinion but it comes with a lot of repression. "That's just where my mind goes--[curious observation]--but I haven't actually read anything since two game days ago." I sense a lot of self-censorship.
1061: Ventilation post from Amb. Doesn't phase me either way (maybe it will later).
1062: Amb correction. (Also, what is "Me wrote:"? )
1063: Elethiomel comments. The first one I guess, an idle noticed...scummy trait? Although there's no real action taken or questions asked. Disconcerting. Last line reads like a genuine townie observation, acute one at that. So we will be ever vigilant for scum.
1064: Aniima. My replies - First line: What would lead you to that guess? Confused. Second line: I reiterate my first question. Lines 4-6: It was worth looking into at least. Thank you.
1065: By Zag - (After a proposed Mackay lynch) "And then if you are who you say you are, we lynch Amb and then we win!" to a point against Aniima to "I'm still more suspicious of Mackay, but you're next on the list." It's a plan (if I'm reading it right) that is just way too contingent on who the mafia would kill.
1066: Amb - Another attempt at connecting Survivor character with mafia role. (Which doesn't seem like it will hold much credibility in light of 'Jerri-Colby' masonry) Then a kind of defeatist tone about Aniima's role, which IMO is ill-advised considering the ideal lynches are the ones where we vote the scum players.
1067: Noted. :S
1068: Mackay - Mostly fine, but the point about Aniima's report seems less than solid. I would have heartily disagreed that Amb's cult or noncult alignment was relevant to hers, which is just about the only way lynching her on the basis of the report, would have been acceptable. It didn't seem distinguished enough. A mountain out of a molehill for something that could easily be construed as mod mistake.
1069: More of the same - and that Aniima connection I don't agree with.
1070: "But I'd still rather remove the scum first." - And I don't see posts like those being effective in accomplishing that. It almost reads like an appeal.
1071: Only thing I don't get about that post is why I should manipulate Aniima's skill. I think I would be more effective elsewhere.
1072: I still don't like this "insistence" factor on anybody's parts. Hot air, as far as I'm concerned. Let's argue with fragments of logic and evidence, like a socratic people. 'Kay?
1073: Just wanted to respond to the last line of this and state that I think this aspect of Zag is more based on my stated self-direction of you and the incurring no-kill. While fishy, it isn't anything too clinching to me, and if you are telling the truth, then I know your save went towards Zag. Still doesn't take him out of cult-bubble for me.
1074: Something about Amb is so slippery as a player for me. In his posts he acknowledges the town and cult perspectives to such a large extent that it makes it hard to pin down. (Don't know if I am describing this accurately enough) The jury is out.
1075: OP much? That would mean that the cop has possible insight into the mafia factions AND town factions.
1076: I would share the same concern but be a bit less conclusive. What is preventing the scenario from being AmbTown making a naked guess at what the cult is.
1077: Reluctant to comment on this one as it was based on a mechanic we later learned, was thrown out.
1078: "Yup, I'm the world's worst cultist, who on being culted, outed and threw the recruiter under a bus that wasn't even being driven at the time - but luckily I had a key - ran it over him, and then continued to spout off in such a way that would attract cop attention and town attention." That is (to borrow an ironically used word from Jedo) an unassailable stance. Your logic is to throw out the argument with the sense that it would be too crazy to consider it coming from a cult perspective. This essentially leaves us in the WIFOM area, no area you would want your colleagues to be in. And the whole turnaround from "consider cult retaining their abilities" to a sarcastic "Yep, Mackay, I am cult in spite of the mod announcing my claimed abilities" just sends alarms in my head. FoS: Amb
Oh, and I respond to any hypothetical "What if we could control Mackay?" plan of yours with the same essence you responded to my Sentran plan. "We could look like idiots if we're wrong."
1079: Have an open mind. Even though, I kind of agree it was the wrong thing to say.
1080: Need to read this over, haven't really digested it yet. I just want to complete this post.

@Zag: I'll go ahead and say it, no matter how it crass it may be. I frankly don't give a flying you know what which faction between scum or cult we lynch so long as we lynch one of the two. I think any part of the town would not show this much mysterious defiance towards lynching for one certain faction. As it has been said before, it is hard enough to detect possible recruited cult given that they have been under the mindset that they work for another faction since the start of the game. Under what condition do you feel it is necessary to start ignoring tells?

Do I feel confident enough that cult would be this bald-faced to start openly and vocally trying to swerve town from following cult tells on you on some form of "the mafia is more important"? That depends. I personally wouldn't as it is drenched in WIFOM.

But I feel like a member of the town would know better than to put themselves willingly in this sketchy area, without so much as a methodical explanation in each and every bid to sway. The "we had partners" seems less of a strong argument today than it did a few days ago. FoS: Zag

Pooped. Let's hope I have the energy to slog through the next page.
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Potato. Belgium. Eight. Random Lynch # Mafia awaits.

[The Great Crep'er]

\1081: Your question has been answered. I just thought it would be nice to mention that MNOWAX actually won GL Survivor ^_^.
1082: Stirring it up, man.
1083: Fair point.
1084: I am surprised that there wasn't more outcry over this. This is what I am talking about in terms of "post based on evidence" rather than on taking a solitary action and making about ten million inferences over what could happen behind the scenes, which seems to be a popular trend around here. It is a brilliantly highlighted inconsistency and is a good argument for a potential connection between Amb and Zag. Gold star. Not much to say other than that, from me. Just wanted to voice an appreciation.
1085: One of the many moves that stems from being a politician, not a townsperson. I see no reason why we need to hide our scumtells from the collective town. As long as "the post" has been made that puts you in that mindset, the damage has been done, wouldn't you say?
1086: Blech. Just a lot of gross assumptions. I think there is a more tactful way to argue with Zag about why you should be kept and what is the asset of keeping you around, trust or no trust, rather than saying "this person is against me, let me color them in scum."
1087-1089: MNOWAX stuff, no comment worth sharing from me.
1090: Word.
1091: I can't say enough about the whole "taking an idea and continuing to spout it to spread a hypothesis around" from Mackay. Just straight out of the Crucible and days of Witch Hunting. The two cult probability would be there, regardless, as it can fit within the realm of reality. Just thought that was worth noting. I did think the question about listing Elethiomel in the innocents was worth something (I am curious to hear the answer) but I do happen to recall at one time the trust that he was good was due to Elethiomel retaining his ability. It seems like this needs some consideration, considering there has already been talks about a hypothetical cult that retains town abilities. Then again, in that scenario, a culted cop just seems like a friggin' game-breaker to me.
1092: "If the cultist can still recruit, they would have already won; as long as he can't, we should wait to get him (If it IS he) until the scum are gone. " Ahem, may I mention that we had a roleblocker? Not to mention, your previous reasoning based on Jedo's existence was rather arbitrary, but I know that was already addressed, so whatever.
1093: Serves me right for not staying on top of this. I agree with Mackay. +1

The next couple of posts are on Jedo's onslaught of arguments, which I feel I need some time before I can civilly respond to them. Just a lot of offhand looking observations with a stern hostility in defeating my posts that I just don't care to relive considering my spat with Mackay.

I will say this: Lynch all liars is a hasty policy any way you slice it. I figured people would have kept an open mind considering Deception, but alas. If you end up lynching me, may the consolation be to get Jedo to fall off his high horse and evolve for the next game. Must think an awful lot of himself to start calling other people's ideas stupid. It's not like he's never messed up. And again, this game is an example.

[Jedo the Jedi]

[Elethiomel]

[Mackay]

Solid point, Eleth. I really wasn't even taking into account the potential for a mafiaZag.

That's enough for me.

vote: Zag. I believe that's the hammer (Eleth, Aniima, and Jedo are also voting for him, I think).

[The Great Crep'er]

[Amb]

Here are the quotes of Mackay, mason hunter:

I am having trouble finding where I accused you of jumping at the chance to believe a second cop claim, and I don't really remember saying it.

Wow, Amb and Zag were both super eager to jump on the insane/random cop possibility, weren't they? It's kind of funny, though:

I dont understand the connection between Cirie Fields and a doctor. Care to explain that for us?

[Mackay]

[The Great Crep'er]

If that's true, it has to be one of the rare times in the game where the role, designated to the character, reflects career and not personality.

[Amb]

Mackays reactions are far more consistent with scum than doctor. Thats why I asked the question. It feels to me like a safe claim. Either way, if Zag is actually lynched - then its irrelevant until tomorrow/

[Mackay]

[Undercover Monk]

I really need to be quicker with these votecounts anyway Zag is lynched with 4 votes.

final vote count

[Undercover Monk]

Lynch Scene

The remaining castaways sat before a grinning Jeff probst who watched them argue and yell til he was certain a few would pass out. No one it seemed trusted anyone and that made for the best tribals. But finally he heard 4 distinct voices accuse Zag. some felt he was alligned with Russel and Parvati. Others were sure he was merely the pawn of Richard Hatch. But it seemed it was he that was to be shipped off the cliff onto the newly laid rusty iron spikes that now adorned the bottom of the bay. So he decided to forego the vote and just grabbed Zag and hauled him to the edge. "Wait," pleaded Zag "were'nt we supposed to do an immunity challenge before we vote!'

"Nah," said Probst, "It got canclled so I could take the day off to go watch a special screening of that new Adam Sandler movie he's so funny. Have fun Zag."

and with that Colby Donaldson (recruited cult) fell to his too gory for network TV death.

Zag- Colby Donaldson town neutral mason/challenge dominator
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Zag]

Baah! Go town nobody.

[Undercover Monk]

Day 6

Th remaining survivors struggle up the path to tribal cliff admist a staggering gale as rain and hail pelt them. Probst hollers over the gale trying to provoke an interesting response out of his drenched playthings but they will have none of it. They vote quickly and Probst realizing that being on the top of an exposed cliff in the middle of a thunderstorm is not the safest place to be decides to forego his usual dramticizing and just tell them who is leaving. Of course no one heard him say Jedo the Jedi but a lightning bolt striking Jedo where he sat made the point moot so the survivors ran/fell down the pat back to camp and huddled down under their makeshift shelter. They would find out in the morning that Jedo was actually....

Jedo the jedi- Yau-Man Chan Town idol finder. It is day 6. 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Elethiomel]

[The Great Crep'er]

Well, that certainly is an odd result. To me, anyways. Jedo was one of the ones who in my opinion was starting to come under fire.

That means there is still a killing faction left out there.

And given the nature of Eleth and Amb's roles, I'm inclined to go towards one of either Mackay or Captain for scum. Although Zag retaining his masonage, to me considering the way his role was written out, makes me consider throwing out working role mechanics (i.e. Elethiomel's idol issuing, or Amb's partnership with Garou) as being exempt from cult.

I redirected Jedo to Elethiomel, and from what I can see, it didn't do a thing.

[Elethiomel]

Why did you redirect Jedo to me?

[The Great Crep'er]

I had an inkling Jedo was scum, it was narrowing down to him after all. I just didn't want to gamble with anyone else's role on the offchance they were functional. And Zag's role revealed certainly gave me doubts as to what happened when one was culted.
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Potato. Belgium. Eight. Random Lynch # Mafia awaits.

[Amb]

[Mackay]

[Jedo the Jedi]

Phooey! (Do people say that?)

Go town, unless my conspiracy you are all scum/cult is correct. *glares*
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Paragon Tally: 19 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[The Great Crep'er]

[Elethiomel]

I don't think we will make much progress here until Captin Aniima posts, so maybe you should just prod her, UM? (If that's not considered rude.)

[Captin Aniima]

Vote elethiomel the only person who isn't confirmed town yet. Btw mackay is town.
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Just sayin... The sky is blue.

[Elethiomel]

Well, I didn't actually see that coming, though perhaps I should have. I guess that explains why I'm still alive.

So scum decided not to kill the doctor, and the cop decided to investigate her? Not very intuitive night actions. Why did you investigate someone that looked so likely to end up dead?

Also, could you please summarize all of your claimed investigations, once more?