SURVIVOR MAFIA- TOWN WINS reunion show

[Elethiomel]

Actually, I'm not going to bother waiting for that summary. Chances that you'll slip up are extremely slim. This is what you've claimed, as far as I can see:

Night 1: TGC. Town.
Night 2: Resurrected Jedo. Town.
Night 3: Sentran. Mafia.
Night 4: Amb. Town.
Night 5: Mackay. Town.

The living players are:

Elethiomel
Captin Aniima
TGC : claimed by CA to be town
Amb : claimed by CA to be town
Mackay : claimed by CA to be town

So on the face of it, we can safely lynch CA to confirm her results. Then, you guys can lynch me, as the only non-town player. The only reason not to go along with this plan is if you think CA's town results can be inaccurate, for example due to mafia recruitment, or a godfather. So we should either lynch CA, or we should disregard her town results and lynch whoever we find the most scummy. To put it another way: if you're willing to trust CA's town results today, you should be even more willing to trust them tomorrow, after confirming her alignment.

From my own point of view, if CA actually is innocent then we're pretty much screwed, but I don't see any better course of action.

Vote: Captin Aniima

[Amb]

[Amb]

(My reasoning is, that a GF can do exactly what she has been doing, knowing that she will show innocent to a cop. But this argument does drop back down due to the inherent unlikeliness of a 2nd cop. And also the fact, that if CA was a cop, that Mackay also wouldnt be expecting a 2nd cop)

[Captin Aniima]

[Amb]

Oh wow, I didn't even realise I did that. Sorry.

[Garou_Kinfolk]

*Listens to the crickets*
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Most posts made from my phone.

[Captin Aniima]

Is it night right now or are we just in a no speaking phase? I don't wish to be mod killed if it is night but I am curious.
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Just sayin... The sky is blue.

[Elethiomel]

It is still day. Amb and I are voting for you, you are voting for me, Mackay is away for 6 days, and TGC seems to be holding his breath for some reason.

You could answer this question, while we're waiting:

[Undercover Monk]

I dont want to deadline a 5 person game when one player is on vacay but something must be done. Soft Deadline of Sunday 11:59 pm EST. will prod TGC and Annima
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Undercover Monk]

Vote Count

[Amb]

[Elethiomel]

[Amb]

THanks for that. I should have read back.

That leaves us with the mafia attacking Jedo. A doctor can't protect themselves generally, so it would seem very strange that they didn't target Mackay. Especially with a cop claim floating around.

So the mafia didn't attack the claimed cop. They didn't attack the claimed doc. They went for a player with one of the more unlikely role name claims. So that's either a ballsy mafia or:

a) TGC is actually scum and his redirect is an outright mafia godfather ability.
b) Mackay isn't a doctor, and thus wasn't very likely to kill herself.
c) Captain Aniima isn't a cop, and thus is hoping to use my posts of late to implicate Mackay in the final 3. (Think about it, if Mackay, Amb and Aniima were alive in the final 3, Aniima would be pretty ecstatic that he/she could convince me to finally vote her to death)

We will be looking for a mafia godfather right now. We haven't managed to lynch one of those. So our considerations really have to be:
1. Why Aniima would claim to be a second cop. And could he/she have been working towards a situation where two loggerheads players were against each other.
2. Why TGC's ability would make a lot more sense if he was a cop immune GF who could redirect the town.

Off all the players alive, Mackay's most reads like GF scum. Consider how safe she would feel knowing she is probably cop immune or lynch immune. But in terms of the scenarios facing us, I'm forced to drop Mackay down below Aniima, and I'm seriously reconsidering TGC as a GF ability (pushing him into 2nd). But TGC's wall posts were more consistent with town.

I still think Aniima should hang. A second cop is just too unlikely.

Elethiomel's ability with fake idols also seems like a scum ability. But if the 2 idol limit is true, it's too weak to be a GF ability....

My rankings therefore are:
1. Captain Aniima (Because of the 2nd Cop claim)
2. Mackay (Just. Based purely on her kneejerk posting, and ties to the known dead scum)
3. TGC (Possibly now 2nd on the list. Ability could well be GF. Posts like a townie, and is the exact opposite of Mackay)
4. Elethiomel (Ability seems to weak to be GF scum, and could have crossclaimed his own mafiaete accidentally. Especially if it was a name given to the team)

I'd be happy in the current scenario to lynch Mackay. But given that I'm wavering just a little on her now, it probably wouldn't make sense to. But I will hammer if the votes go that way. Probably quite vindictive if I do

[Elethiomel]

Just to recap some key facts.

On night 3, there was no town death, but a mafia death.
On night 4, there were no deaths at all.

* The only player who has claimed anything that might explain night 3's mafia death is TGC.

* The only player who has claimed anything that might explain night 4's lack of deaths is Mackay. (Barring an explicit "no kill" order from the mafia.)

If both TGC and Mackay are lying, one of them would have hammered Captin Aniima by now.

If they are both telling the truth, then TGC redirected Mackay to Zag on night 4, and Zag must have been targeted by the mafia kill on night 4. Strange kill order, but he did perhaps appear more innocent to the mafia than to the rest of us. After all, the mafia knew he wasn't mafia. Still, this is slightly puzzling.

If TGC is lying but Mackay is telling the truth, then Captin Aniima was protected on night 4, and therefore targeted by the mafia night kill. If so, Captin Aniima is likely innocent, and her night 1 town result on TGC is legit. So he would then either be a godfather, or recruited by the mafia flirt. TGC's play on day 4 did reek of a desperate attempt to save Sentran, but this still leaves us without an explanation for ralphmerridew's death.

If Mackay is lying but TGC is telling the truth, Mackay must have no-killed on night 4, which probably makes sense, given TGC's stated intentions. I still don't think Mackay reads as scum, though, and it would be a strange setup with two cops and no doctor. Also, Mackay must be a godfather in this scenario.

So I guess the simplest explanation seems to be that both Mackay and TGC are telling the truth, and Captin Aniima is lying. On the other hand, why did Captin Aniima make a second cop claim? She wasn't in imminent danger of hanging; if anything, the claim just made it more likely that she would hang.

Just to cover all options: Amb started the game as town, as confirmed by Garou. Looks like he can't be a mafia recruit, either, since Captin Aniima scanned him as innocent on night 4.

Captin Aniima, if you really are innocent you need to chime in and try to convince us of that, because otherwise we will likely lose by lynching first you and then me. (Or perhaps the other way around.)

[Mackay]

Hi. Sorry for the absence, it really crept up on me.

vote: deadline extension.

I'm going to bed and will post tomorrow.

[The Great Crep'er]

TGC and Aniima? I posted. Can we exercise a little patience please? I never wanted to make any decision this late in the game with a hasty quickness. I have reread when I have gotten the chance (school year is starting back up again) and I am not going to vote any sooner than I have to.

Let us have a discussion on this matter and educate ourselves through debate before moving to action.
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Potato. Belgium. Eight. Random Lynch # Mafia awaits.

[The Great Crep'er]

Aniima: As much as I want to debate and hold an open forum, there's only so much that can be done when the conversation is this one sided. You are on the grill currently and if you are town, it is your duty to say all you can to avoid being lynched so that your faction does not come closer to losing the game. If you wish to take on this noose because you are a quitter mafia/a town member that feels hopeless/a town member that feels confident your death will not put town in danger of losing, it would be one thing. (If that's the case, I think it would help to be just a bit more vocal on the matter) But if you think staying quiet is going to be any positive action towards evading today's vote, you are misinforming yourself.

I realize it is a hypocritical stance to start attacking inactivity when I have been away for a few days. What can I say? I'm not the one with two votes on Day 6. And if/when I am put back under the microscope, I will be more than willing to have an open discourse with you all.

The thing is, Aniima, when you don't respond to the fact that there could be a GF in the game and would rather vote the person you were so convinced was town before because of Amb's confirmation of his idol giving ability, it makes it difficult to play with you whether you are town or mafia. You want us to lynch Eleth? Make the argument that defies his ability. You want us to not lynch you? Make the argument that sways us. Just don't sit silent and expect anything to get accomplished other than your demise. The only reason I am not voting you at this point, is because I feel the main motivation for me to vote you is based out of composite playstyle. A point which I argued several times that seemed to gain no traction out of the other players. (Some were even towntelling you! For reasons that always seemed to elude me.) This indecisiveness is a lot due to this recent 180 taken on you. It's just so weird and out of place with everything else that's been said about the Captain. (Other than what I've said, of course)
_________________
Potato. Belgium. Eight. Random Lynch # Mafia awaits.

[Mackay]

Okay. My first response to Aniima's information was "If there is a two-person mafia group, Elethiomel is by necessity part of it." This was accompanied by a substantial rush of paranoia (I know, I know, colour you all surprised) and the realisation that if Sentran didn't notice Eleth using it, Crowley could have just been a safe claim that he accidentally reused, rather than a real claim that he counterclaimed as I have believed to this point.

My second response was "Wait, that line of reasoning depends on Aniima's innocence". So I'm glad I staved off the urge to just go ahead and vote.

Thinking about it this morning, I've mostly been concentrating on the possibility of two remaining mafia, as that is the situation for which we are at lynch-or-lose.

There are few options for a two-person group that would not have already seized the chance to win. For instance, I can only be paired with Aniima, and the same goes for TGC. Any other two-person mafia group involving either of us has already won in this circumstance.

An Aniima-Elethiomel pair is possible, but very unlikely. I feel as though a two-person mafia group, last night, feels pretty confident that they can just wait for Amb to place a vote on me and then finish the job. No need for them to turn on one another. The one thing that stops me ruling this out altogether was Aniima putting Eleth on her 'innocent' list with all of the people she claimed to have investigated. I questioned that at the time she claimed cop, and I question it now. It is not enough to base a case on, though.

Aniima-Amb? I still can't see a mechanic where Amb is likely to be mafia. It doesn't make sense flavour-wise and it would be a highly questionable move from a game mechanics standpoint. If the flirting was a recruitment ability, I still can't imagine Aniima claiming to have investigated him and gotten an innocent result, rather than just claiming to investigate someone else.

Which is why Elethiomel/Amb, the only possible non-Aniima two person mafia group, doesn't make sense either. Aniima would be telling the truth in this case, making Amb a godfather. JT the godfather of a mafia with Russell and Parvati? Yeah, just... no.

So, from my perspective the only two-person mafia group whose existence I would believe in is Aniima/TGC. I understand that I am an excellent candidate for being paired with Aniima as well, as I am a big proponent of Jedo1 having been an insane cop, and therefore have supported Aniima's cop claim - but I know that I am not mafia or paired with Aniima, so that really only leaves me the one pair, with a 0.5% chance of an Eleth/Aniima pairing that has gotten itself into trouble.

So if we think we are at lynch or lose, Aniima is the correct call.



Here's the thing, though:

Aniima could have just claimed to get a guilty result on Elethiomel. If there were two mafia left there would be no need for plausible deniability the following day, as they could just nightkill me. She didn't claim that she got a guilty on Eleth. She claimed that she investigated me and got an innocent result. That is a much weaker claim than she could have made, if she felt at liberty to invent results. Hell, she could have claimed to have a guilty result on me, and have Amb salivating for the lynch. (I'm just going to take a moment here to thank Amb for being, ironically, a key factor in my survival to this point. I can't imagine I would be alive if you hadn't spent the entirety of the last three or so game days baying for my blood.)

The info-claim she did make? Reads painfully honest to me.

A mafia pair containing Aniima could have chosen to nightkill somebody who was calling suspicion on her (several to choose from). Jedo had a tentative town read on her - a read with which I agreed, and have not quite let go. I suppose a Jedo nightkill is consistent with what you would expect of an Aniima/TGC pair.



My main worry is the complete focus on the Aniima/Eleth dichotomy, and everyone's suspicious behaviour with relation to it. Amb's vote was super-hasty. Like, "either has information that we're not at lynch-or-lose or doesn't care if we are at lynch or lose" hasty. Which makes no sense at all! It's near-impossible for him to be mafia! TGC went all quiet until people questioned him, and is now feinting at Aniima. It isn't really Eleth's fault as this was basically the best option available to him, town or mafia, but whenever anyone says "Lynch X, then lynch me", the hackles go up. The only person whose behaviour seems guileless to me is Aniima, and she is the best lynch from a strategic/probability perspective. (unless you accept possible active-cult existence. I think I'm the only one.)

Bah.

I want to take a bit of a break and then look at everyone again. There are still a bunch of things I want to consider.

[Amb]

2 more mafia as well? Why wouldnt we be looking for the last one? THat would be a pretty strong mafia if there were still 2 and a cult.

[Amb]

Game balance based on known and claimed:

Town:

[Amb]

What I think I want to decide is what would make the more balanced game. 2 cops, with scum/SK/Cult and recruits. Or 1 cop and 1 doc. Because there in lies the winning of the game I think. If it is 1 cop, then we have the near impossible scenario of exterminating an extensive cult in a lot of the possible outcomes this game could have. If it is 2 cops, then we have an advantage of finding cult but our cops are only covered by a mafia who don't realise (for a long time) that there are NO doctors.

[Amb]

Not to mention that roleblockers and redirectors could effectively be cops as well... Just not as direct, and less useful on cult.

[Mackay]

[Mackay]

[Amb]

The 2 mafia situation tends towards you being mafia much more than the 1 mafia situation. And I am considering Elethiomel. I just am going with the 2nd cop as more likely. And if said 2nd cop is scum, I think the game will be over. And if 2nd cop is town, then I'd guess the reason the claimed doc is still alive is because she is scum...

Elethiomel could be a cross claiming scum - who cross claimed his own mafia buddy with the same safe claim. BUT they also claimed the same ability. Now that would be a lot harder to fake. And they couldnt have known who would be lynched and whose ability would need to be faked. It's too ballsy a gamble. Much like if TGC killed his own mafiaete to stake out his claim.

No, the remaining scum are: If 1 - then Mackay or Aniima. If 2, then both. And if it's Elethiomel - then, well, I suck.

I'm going to vote on the most likely scenario - and in the FACE of a cult - the town would be unfairly weakened without at least 2 cops.

So therefore, unvote Vote Mackay

For the win!

[Mackay]

Amb, I don't remember if you ever answered this, but I remember someone asking. (Zag?)

Was your idol specified as coming from Elethiomel, or did it just say that you received an idol?


Eleth,

[Amb]

It was specifically stated that I found the idol in the sand or by a river or something like that.

[Mackay]

In that case I think claiming the same ability would be the correct way to go. Either one of them could leave a fake idol for you and claim it was Elethiomel.

Sentran was a goon. It would make sense for him to take the hit if Eleth was more valuable.

Ow. This is shaking my entire worldview (where by "world" I mean "game"). I need to think. I think I'm gonna go back through the Sentran cross-claiming stuff and people's reactions.

[Mackay]

[Elethiomel]

It shouldn't be surprising that Sentran wanted to plant the idea that both of us could be innocent. Otherwise, he would be completely screwed after my lynch. That post you're quoting isn't intended to defend me. It's a preemptive self defense.

If we're both mafia, accidentally using the same safe claim, how come one of us misspelled the name? The incongruous spelling suggests that we were copy/pasting from different sources.

[Mackay]

[Mackay]

In the name of keeping this to a not-ridiculous size, I've trimmed off the parts of this post where I extrapolate from the Zag/Deception speculation. That way I'm only sending one message - that I think the cult still has the potential to be active.

Here is what I think has happened re: the cult.

Obviously, MNOWAX recruited Zag on night 1.
On day 2, Deception has noticed something off with regard to Zag and MNOWAX. He points this out shortly before nightfall.
On night 2, Deception and Zag cut a deal. Zag will recruit Deception into the cult. However, Deception is not recruited for some reason. Here are the three main possibilities, IMO:
- After the loss of Hatch, cult recruitments have an x% chance of failing.
- After the loss of Hatch, cult recruitments can only occur on alternate days.
- Zag chose to recruit Amb instead.
(I favour the combination of a and c)

In any case, Deception is not recruited, but switches his allegiance to the cult in preparation for his later recruitment. Unfortunately, he comes out on day 3 in the worst, most backpedalling way possible, making himself look like a liar and a cultist (which, in his mind, he is). He is caught, and one of his efforts to save himself is:

[Elethiomel]

I guess it's not so implausible that Zag and Deception engaged in some kind of bargain in their private thread. That would explain why neither of them were willing to quote from it. And their combined behavior on day 3 was so bizarre that I think you may be on to something. But that doesn't mean that Zag's promise to recruit Deception was in any way truthful. In fact, I played in another game where one member of town was duped by mafia into believing he would be recruited, and actively played against his own victory condition for a whole day, before the mafia shut him up by killing him in the night.

As I have already noted, Amb's conclusion in the middle of day 3 that both Zag and Deception must be innocent was a major WTF moment for me. So I guess that does support the idea that Amb was recruited by cult, while Deception was slated for recruitment down the line.

This does beg the question: if you think Amb is cult, do you also think a cop would be unable to detect that? But if CA is mafia, and Amb is cult, all the back and forth on her result for Amb also seems like a strange coincidence. Why would she even make up all of that, to begin with? It almost seems like CA is a genuine cop, and the mod goofed by saying "town" on the previous occasions where he really should have just said "not mafia", not realizing his mistake until CA actually investigated a cult member. Meanwhile, Amb's reaction to being pegged as "not mafia" by CA reeked of guilt.

(Yeah I know, not really helping myself here... but that is what it looks like.)

[Mackay]

It's not helping yourself, but it's where I was already headed.

If I feel there is a cult as well as a mafia risk, is it better for me to vote for you, who has a strong chance of being a recruit (suspected innocent and someone whose levelheadedness and quality of posting has made you the only player in this game to whom everyone else listens), as well as a decent chance at being mafia?

Or is it better for me to vote for the person whose culthood doesn't make sense (my speculations/conclusions about the Aniima/Amb cult stuff are extremely similar to yours*) but is the only person who can be in a pair of mafia?

I am leaning toward voting you, and I hate it. If Aniima is a mafioso who is framing you, it is extremely subtly done, and if there are two cultists then we are at lynch-or-lose regardless of what the mafia situation is. In the nightmare scenario where it's me, two mafia, and two cultists, well... I suppose I'm meant to eke out a win for myself with the cult, but I just hate the thought of that. I hate cults. And I don't think I could consider Amb a worthy winner this game.

I have mentioned why I think you would be a good choice for being recruited by Amb, but I should probably outline why I think it may actually be the case:
- He did not hesitate to throw a second vote on top of yours at possible lynch-or-lose, despite it not being for his stated top suspect.
- He failed to account for you when he was outlining possibilities for who was most likely to be mafia. And I mean, directly after a post where he made sure to include you in a list of possible suspects, he forgot to include you in his calculations.This would make sense if you are an ally and he doesn't need to factor you in.
- If Amb is allied with Creper there is zero reason for today not to be over. Aniima is a mafia suspect and thus extremely high on a cult hitlist.
- His more moderate attitude toward me at the beginning of today, if you take nighttime suspect discussion into consideration.
- As soon as I started to express discomfort with his behaviour relative to you, he freaked out and switched his vote off Aniima and back to me, despite said vote being based on a theory of two mafia that includes Aniima as a mafioso almost by necessity. This fits with the general pattern of panicked smearing he has exhibited any time I start getting nervous about the cult.

This is in addition to the possibility of your being mafia - you and Creper now share the top of my list of who could be stand-alone mafiosi, with Aniima being the obvious vote if I think there are multiple mafia members (and am adequately satisfied that the cult won't win if I vote for her).


*The only coherent narrative Aniima/Amb-cult-wise is if cultAniima tried too hard to make her results 'accurate' at her partner's expense and then corrected, but it would be a HUGE blunder to bring it up in the first case, were it so. So it really seems unlikely.

[Elethiomel]

Below is Amb's first post on day 4, after Deception was lynched on day 3, and 3iff/ralphmerridew died in the night.

So, Amb... did you kill 3iff? I mean, it would kind of make sense with the way you suspected him the day before, and how you were saying a vigilante should stay quiet.

Also, in this post you were again asserting that Deception's innocence implied that Zag must be innocent, too. The very same thing that I called you on the day before, and forced you to acknowledge was implausible. What was up with that?

[Amb]

[Captin Aniima]

I don’t have a way to show that I'm not scum besides what I have been doing. That is by posting all of my results as they came.

I know I wasn’t in danger of being lynched but I needed you to be able to believe me. My answer to this is simple I had to be honest even if the truth was a bit crazy. I am a cop and to me a second cop makes sense because we are going up against two groups. One of those groups is a continuously growing group. To me it makes sense that there would be a second cop.

No I am not partnered up with anyone because I'm not scum no I wasn’t trying to cover for Amb if UM had said it did mean something else, I would have let him crash or fly all on his own after telling the results on the thread.

I don’t have anything else to tell you because I don’t have anything to say that’s all. Ask me anything you want and I will answer because a cop shouldn’t have anything to hide once they are revealed. So go ahead and ask anything you see as necessary to know and if this is not enough to prove to you that I'm not scum then I don’t know what is.
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Just sayin... The sky is blue.

[Elethiomel]

Captin Aniima, I already asked you twice about why you chose to investigate Mackay. In fact, it would be helpful if you explained your reasoning behind all of the investigations that you made.

[Elethiomel]

I reread a little of day 3, and Deception and Zag really did look like they were colluding, before Zag eventually decided to turn on Deception. It just seems implausible that Zag managed to turn Deception's head so completely in their private thread, just by claiming to be an investigator. If Deception was telling the truth about deliberately wanting to cast suspicion on Zag, why did he so presciently claim that Zag was a cultist? And why would Zag go along with a plan to cast suspicion on him? It just makes zero sense, so it really seems likely that Deception actually was lying about a thing or two, despite being town.

I also found this:

[Undercover Monk]

Deadline has worked and will be removed for now. I expect posts to dry up over the holiday weekend but if they don't pick up again quickly on Tuesday then a hard deadline will be enacted. Their are only a few of you left so no excuses for not posting.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning