Heroes and Villains mafia - The town claim victory

[Zag]

[Garou_Kinfolk]

So I think we're pretty much out of RVS now. There seems to be enough serious votes floating around for this to be true.

To start off I just want to say sorry for making some of you so agitated because of my vote for Jedo and the reason for voting him. BUT, I wanted to lay kind of trap to see how people reacted to it. Here's what I've seen from people since my post (#18). This is
mostly how I felt the poses were coming off.

19, TGC: The tone seems calm, says he'll be watching Jedo, and it feels like there's a lot of thought put into it.
20, Sentran: His post had tone of reasoning thought behind it and felt calm to me. He has also confirmed his vote which I can't blame him for, even though it's for me. :p
22, UM: He was dismissive of Jedos post, but felt slightly agitated throughout.
23, Zag: He was agreeable with my post/vote and voted for Jedo as well.
23, UM: During this post I felt he was agitated and aggressive throughout.
25, Zag: He felt defensive during this post.

To Be Continued...
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Most posts made from my phone.

[Garou_Kinfolk]

26/27, UM: There was a feeling of aggression all throughout this post.
29, UM: This one felt like it had good logic but an undertone of aggression.
30, Jedo: This post felt calm and logical.
32, Raekuul: Unvotes and is devoid of content.
33, TGC: This post felt calm, logical and inquisitive.
34, UM: Starts with some humor, adds a line to my quote "Revenge most foul", and feels like there is a sternness in how it ended. Finishes it with a vote for Zag.
35, Raekuul: Thinks day 1 should be fast. It feels like there is a logical argument for it. Votes Perp without a reason.
37, Zag: This is a slim post and I can't get a read on it.
39, Jadesmar: Seems inquisitive in asking about substance in a post this early. Then votes Perp. Hope these posta help answer your question.
40, Jadesmar: Unvotes so there isn't an L-1 this early.
41,Zag: Seems like a logical point for a Day 1 strategy.

Throughout I was also seeing who posted. Perp was/is the only person absent from this discussion.
T.B.C. ...
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Most posts made from my phone.

[Garou_Kinfolk]

Sorry for the triple post. Text limit on my phone sucks.

Anyway, with the other posts done here is my FoS list.
F.o.S. UndercoverMonk, Zag, and Perp

UMonk for his over reaction to the whole thing even with me posting my vote wouldn't stay there.
Zag for actually going along with it.
Perp for lurking this whole time.

Not going to vote yet.
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Most posts made from my phone.

[Jedo the Jedi]

I don't know how much to believe your initiation of this situation was a test in reactions, but considering the logic isn't far from my own reasons for posting as I did, I can't help but appreciate it. (As much as this is your true intention I find you less suspicious.)

Anyway, we both seem to have come up with Zag as suspicious for his going along with it. I'm too lazy to sort through all the voting and voting, but once we get an updated vote count, I will gladly move my vote to Zag. (I'm sure he's not in danger of being lynched by my potential added vote, but I don't want to add #3 and have people jump on thinking he isn't close.)
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Paragon Tally: 19 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Perpentach]

I realize that lurking keeps coming up as a problem for me. I'm just going to say that judging whether someone is mafia or not based on how sensible their post is right now will just leave us with suspicion later on. Just like Zag was saying, we're not trying to catch someone right now, just have material to look back on. I have a feeling that Garou's chart and reactions to it will be very useful later on in this game.

[Zag]

So let me get this straight, Garou. Your plan was:

1. Make an accusation based on some unusual reasoning which you secretly think is unreasonable.
2. Wait until someone agrees with you.
3. Accuse that person for agreeing with you.

Is that about it?

Well, you failed to take into account the possibility that you accidentally stumbled on something semi-reasonable. Sure, Jedo joking around about making an alliance not a huge thing. But for day one, it's something slightly more interesting than the nothing we otherwise have.

I thought about the only times I had done anything similar: The very first game I played where I said I would be following Loki's lead, and another time when I told somebody (I forget whom) that I wanted to team up. Both times I was scum, and I was doing it to set up some deniability when participating in a townie lynch. It occurred to me, not even from your comment, but from Sentran's argument against it, that I would never do that as town, not even joking. I'd be worried that the person I picked would turn out as scum and generally too uncomfortable to be joking around.

Your mileage may vary, but I stick with the position that it moves Jedo a bit above the pack in scumminess. It's not a confident declaration like I made against Mackay in the last game, but I still feel it's a little something. In the lack of anything else, it's enough for a vote.

[Garou_Kinfolk]

Actually, my plan was to wait until someone made a post that I could make vote off of that I could make sound legitimate, then wait and gauge the reactions of others, at which point I would post my findings. You're actually at the bottom of my top three and the only reason you're there is because no one else agreed and voted with me. Lurking through the day is a good way to nor draw attention to oneself which is why Perp got an FoS. Monks over reaction earned him an FoS as well. There's more to these reasons then just this, but they should be obvious/usual arguments and I have to get back to work.
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[Undercover Monk]

Its not an overeaction if my reasoning is spot on. You float a BS vote based on AGAIN THE FIRST POST JEDO MADE. I make repeated posts about the horrible line of reasoning which you have now admitted was not even a serious vote. Zag hops on and yet the crux of my argument has still not been answered. By anyone. Until someone can convince me that that post had nefarious purposes I will continue to advocate on Jedos behalf not because I think he is innocent but because the argument against him is bunk.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[jadesmar]

In summary.

Garou says makes up a "sketchy" reason for a vote and watches to see what happens.
Zag agrees with the "sketchy" reason (well, finds it semi-reasonable) whereas UM strongly disagrees (finds it "a BS vote based on.." I'm just going to say the word "bullshit" again here to complete the thought.. UM can correct me if that's wrong)

So, when Zag says:

[The Great Crep'er]

@Players in general: A big ol "geez" at ya for the continuous calling Perpentach a lurker. The game's been on for like three days and we've barely made a page and a half. I think it is great that he has made the effort he has so far and I think it is unsubstantial to be calling people lurkers at this point considering the game is still young. It can be a lot worse for a longer period of time -- THEN you go after them for lurking.

[jadesmar]

[The Great Crep'er]

[3iff]

Day 1, 9 alive, 5 to lynch
Deadline: none set
Current Vote Count (to post 53)

[raekuul]

[Jedo the Jedi]

[Sentran]

[Jedo the Jedi]

[jadesmar]

[Sentran]

If previous games are any indicator, I am a big proponent of the lurker lynch. I would like to add a caveat to that. I am in support of a lurker lynch when there are many players and no better direction has been proposed. In this game, with a smaller player base and more active players, I do not feel that a lurker lynch is necessary at this point. Perhaps on subsequent days when players are showing more of a tendency to short and empty posts, I will support one, but not at this time.

Jedo, you and I will probably continue to disagree over what makes a legitimate read on scum. It's always going to be subjective, and the only thing that proves or disproves any theory are lynches. If you came to a lynch of scum through valid reasons or stupid ones, a lynch of scum still benefits town. Why quibble over why people vote, if in the end they lynch some scum?
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Jedo the Jedi]

[Zag]

I suspect that the only conclusion you can make from one person strongly defending another on day 1 is that they are NOT both scum. Seriously, have you ever seen one scum strongly defend a scum buddy on the first day? They might both be town, or either one might be scum, but not both.

An over-aggressive attempt to draw connections between people, though, is a scum trait. I am going to rank jadesmar just above the pack in scumminess for that action. This puts him, in my eyes, about equal to Jedo, only a bit above neutral.

[Sentran]

[Jedo the Jedi]

[Sentran]

I've been going over the game in my head today at work. Jadesmar's question does not seem too out of line, but it does strike me as similar to the way some players "bait" others into voting for them by asking "innocent" questions (*cough*Zag*cough*). Either way, I'm reading through the thread again and looking for anything that stands uot to me.

As for the Jedo/UM thing, I had a realization. I apologize in advance if I'm right, and Jedo was hoping others hadn't noticed. In short, Jedo kind of asked UM to join him in a bandwagon. It was still very early on Day 1, and most likely nothing would come of it. Add the emoticon, and it could easily be explained away as a RVS joke vote. Here are the potential situations as I see them:
1. Jedo and UM are both scum. This is a daring play that will be brought up in future games, to be sure. I don't know if such a ploy would work, as rarely are the Mafia given a chance to communicate prior to game when game begins on Day. NOTE: I said RARELY!
2. Jedo is scum, UM is town. A possibility, but Jedo is smart enough not to extend the olive branch in this situation. It would likely bring attention to the first player, whether or not the vote was serious. Even if he could argue his way out of it, that initial read would help to color future opinions on Jedo later in the game.
3. Neither are scum. This is the most likely case, given my argument in case 4. Jedo could have intended the vote as RVS, as he claimed.
4. Jedo is town, UM is scum. This is an interesting (albeit left field) theory. Perhaps Jedo threw out this seemingly innocuous vote just to gauge UM's reaction. If UM was too eager to link himself to a townie, it could indicate to Jedo that UM was, in fact, scum.
Just random theories of mine bouncing around. They should not let me get bored at work.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Zag]

[Zag]

[Zag]

That should have been "When I play AS mafia." That is, I meant the alignment, not the game in general.

[Undercover Monk]

While game theory is interesting to discuss we are getting derailed from the discussion at hand. To help get back to scum-hunting here is my page 2 view of all the players.

Null read:
Sentran-hasn't really added that much to the conversation but has posted a lot. Perhaps a scum trying to lay low that strategy always seems to lurk but for now he's low on my list.
Raekuul and Perpentech- I agree with TGC that it is too early to call them lurkers but they are both on their way if their post count stays as is. However I think there are several more likely candidates.
Jedo- The whole basis for his wagon is stupid. But like Sentran he really hasnt provided anything substantial which to be honest with only 2 pages few have.

Slightly Scummy:
TGC-while I disagree in theory with jadesmar saying you have to have a relationship to defend a player. I think its a good point as that sort of defenses is exactly what a scum would do. Defend a player to gain their trust and use them as a pawn for their nefarious schemes. (NOTE: yes I understand the same could be said about me and my defense of Jedo which is why TGC is only slightly scummy.)
Garou_Kinfolk- His idea of subterfuge is IMHO a bad way to catch scum. I believe in logic over reactions. I hate when people try to judge the tone of a post. How many times have we posted what we thought was obviously sarcastic and the had the tone of the post misconstrued. Im just not sure whether its a well-intintioned town move or evil ploy.

Town feel:
jadesmar- while I disagree with him on the TGC issue hes not wrong persay. Im gonna be hypocritical here and say he feels town to me.

But the person who Im most confident about is

Scum:
Zag- for reasons stated already his hitching on to the jedo wagon is so out of character. Its page two so we dont have much to go on but seriously I guess I hold him to a higher standard cause I have such respect for his abilities. it felt like a add on to a totally contrived argument and those are very scummy.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Garou_Kinfolk]

I don't have a lot of time, but I wanted to post why I said Perpentach is a lurked. My definition of a lurked is anyone who has less poses then the mod. As of right now the only person who falls into that category is Perpentach with 2 posts all game. 3iff has 5. Raekuul also has 5 posts. Everyone else has 6 or more.
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Most posts made from my phone.

[Perpentach]

I haven't really said enough so I'm just going to say how I'm feeling people.

My scumometer!

UM is at 1. He's been trying to separate the RVS from the current discussion, and I commend him for that. He has been overreacting though, so he has a tenuous hold on the highest spot.

TGC is at .5. Same as Jedo really, anti-quick lynch, no real clear read.

Jedo is at .5. He's positive because he's being anti-wagon, which I think is a good thing. He's low because he hasn't actually said anything to get a very clear read.

Jadesmar is at 0. 6 posts and 1/3 of them are a discussion about whether TGC defending me means there is a relation between us.

Sentran is at 0. He has spent far more time talking about general strategy than about this game. No read at all.

Raekuul is at -.25. He hasn't posted much, and he seems to be sticking to his claim that there isn't anything to judge scumminess by, despite most other players saying there is. He could be right though, so he's placed on the high end of the scum stick.

Garou is at -.5. His whole "I'm going to trap Jedo" thing really backfired, and isn't making him look very good. He would be lower down but I think it was just a poor decision, not necessarily trying to trick people.


Zag is at -.75. He has this kind of convoluted half-logic, that as other people have said is out of character for him. I don't know if that really is out of character, due to lack of experience, but he isn't getting any points for it.

[raekuul]

And the fact that I'm presently voting for you has nothing to do with my negative score, I'm sure

In all seriousness, we could quibble for weeks on end (and probably will) as to whether or not the day 1 stuff is meaningful, and those who are determined to see connections will see them regardless of what evidence will later appear.

[jadesmar]

So, assuming 1 means the least scummy, why does your least scummy person have your vote?

[Perpentach]

Because I'm silly, and forgetful. Unvote[b].
Raekuul, as I said, there is now stuff to talk about, despite your claims that it is all meaningless. That is why you are on the negative side.

[Perpentach]

Bold is accidental and not meant to sound angry, or anything.

[raekuul]

There may be stuff to talk about now, but we don't have any concrete evidence yet. For all anybody knows, it could be UM and TGC as scum buddies. Anything that anybody has to say about alignments at this stage of the game is purely conjecture - and most day one predictions about scumminess are wrong.

[raekuul]

Do not let my attitude confuse you. I am a proponent of having a fast first day, not fast days in general.

[Zag]

[Undercover Monk]

How can you find the first post he made in the game suspicious. I can not forgive the horrible logic this is. Please refer to psot 29 for a longer abd more sarcastic rant. The fact that you, Zag, have still clung to this is beyond me and the number one reason that I am voting you .

In my expirience scum when caught struggle and become hard headed why Townies (by being totally paranoid and clueless) are much more open to changing their minds. The fact that you have yet to answer me on this issue lends my belief that my argument is correct and the fact that you continue to pursue jedo even after Garou has said he was just using that as an excuse to gauge reations (not how I scum hunt but to each his own) is particularly damning in my eyes.
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The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Sentran]