Heroes and Villains mafia - The town claim victory

[Jedo the Jedi]

I do want to work out some options for tomorrow. This is all assuming MNO is lynched and flips scum today.

If MNO flips scum, that confirms me as town--unless you assume I crazily shot my team in the foot by not going along with Sentran's "result."

Therefore, since I will be confirmed town, Sentran should follow my suggestion to block Zag again.

If I survive the night, I will tell my result of either Zag or Sentran and end the game with a town win.

If I do not survive the night, there are two options: Sentran was lying or somebody else is scum. As far as I can tell, my lack of survival would signify Zag's innocence.

To confirm Sentran was not lying, he should block Zag and Zag should be sure to use an ability which can be confirmed that it was blocked.

If this is true, TGC or Garou is scum. They will vote each other, and Sentran and Zag should vote Garou for the lynch. If Garou has been telling the truth, he will survive and TGC will be lynched (either then or the next day), or Garou will be caught and the town will win.

Any problems with my logic or disagreements?
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Garou_Kinfolk]

I've gone through Day 2 again and I want to bring up something in relation to the "3" cops issue. Godfather. It's something that's been pushed into the background and brushed aside. I'd like to bring it up again as it has become something that could balance out the cop roles. It's the most likely answer... if both Jedo and Zag are telling the truth about their roles.

As I have cast enough doubt into my own mind again,
unvote

I'm going to go through Day 3 and see if my current suspicions of people hold or change.

I'd like to hear what TGC has to say also. I know he's been busy, but having another opinion would be nice.
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[Jedo the Jedi]

The GF issue hasn't been pushed aside, at least as far as I know. If I'm scum (since that's the only area where it is an issue), who am I scum with? If it's not with Zag (again, the only area where it is an issue), then I would have kept my mouth shut and won the game based on Sentran's "result." If I'm scum with Zag, then GF isn't an issue because he's already lying.

For me at this point, it all comes down to a matter of logic. Either I'm scum and you don't believe me, or I'm town and MNO is scum. If I'm scum, who with? I believe that's the only question you have to answer, not to be too trite.

Anyway, I've done pretty much all the rhetoric I can do on the issue. It's really up to everybody else to evaluate whether my arguments are sound. MNO doesn't want you to think so, but I hope I've shown where his arguments fall apart and how his rhetoric reads more like a cornered scum.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Sentran]

This debate has gone on long enough, and here's how the players stand in my opinion.

Zag is still suspect, due to the lack of kill combined with my roleblock. Compound that with the fact that he's claimed a primarily unverifiable role.

Jedo makes calm, logical arguments that sound reasonable. It still does not entirely clear him in my mind, because I am naturally paranoid.

TGC has been quiet. Almost too much so considering the small number of players left in this game. It makes me worry that he's allowing us to kill each other off so he can mop up the remains.

Garou's claim is also very difficult to prove. It's also very powerful given the size of the game. Other than that, he has a more town read than scum read to me.

MNO has latched on to Jedo/Zag like an angry pitbull. He appears to be following that argument while ignoring all others. His claimed power would make more sense in a larger game, but feels out of place in a game this size. Also, his blinders to "COP" are a repeated thread over the past several days; i.e. he refuses to delineate between any sort of investigative powers as separate roles. Due to all of these things combined, I will Unvote, Vote: MNOWAX.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Zag]

@Sentran: Sigh. If only you had bussed your buddy come to that conclusion two posts earlier, we could go to night with one scum kill under our belts.

@Garou: Jedo is correct that the only one for whom a Godfather role is relevant and possible is him, since he is the only target of any investigation for which a "not guilty" verdict has been claimed. And if it is he, then we hardly have anything like an excess of investigatory powers. He's also correct in that he would have switched to me when he had the chance, if that were the case. (Unless -- speaking from your point of view -- the scum are he and I. All I can tell you is that we are not.) His argument has convinced me to drop my small, lingering doubt that he is a godfather. Honestly, I was a little bit concerned.

[Zag]

[Garou_Kinfolk]

I have to wonder:
If MNOWAX has the same ability as Spyrl did in the Game of Thrones game, then the last person who votes for him will get lynced?
If my ability is still intact, and hasn't been used last night, would I survive dropping the hammer on him?
If I survive the lynch vote on him, does my ability mean that the next person down get the effects of MNOWAXs power?

I suppose there is only one way to find out the answers to all of these questions and vote with my gut.

vote: MNOWAX
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[Jedo the Jedi]

Now I can throw in my two cents.

I think Sentran is lying. Unless MNO flips as mafia redirector, I don't know how else to explain the fact that I didn't receive a result on Night 1. (Sentran claims he blocked jadesmar Night 1.) I checked with the mod that it wasn't because my target died (because an investigation should come before the kill in an action resolution sequence).

I've already posted the if/thens I think the town should follow for tonight and tomorrow. Zag should attempt to use a power, and Sentran should block him. If I turn up dead and Zag's ability goes through, Sentran is the final scum. If not, look at TGC or Garou.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[MNOWAX]

If there wasn't four votes on me, there will be now. Unvote, Vote MNOWAX

It doesn't matter if you lynch me, it's still LYLO tomorrow.

I chose not to kill last night, that's why there's no kill. Good luck trying to find the last scum. The result may surprise you.
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The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX

[Garou_Kinfolk]

[Sentran]

I did not have Jedo very high on my suspect list until his last post. Now he has painted me into a losing spot no matter what happens. Let's just hope that I am correct in thinking Zag is scum. If not, then all the remaining Mafia member has to do tonight is kill Jedo and I will follow tomorrow, leaving the win to the Mafia.

Jedo, here's the reason you can't explain why your ability did not work on night 1: SOMEONE IS LYING. Mafia do that.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[3iff]

Once again, the residents gathered together to see who was next due to leave prematurely. Dr Venkman stood up and prepared to make the announcement. However, he was interrupted by an irate gardener. Chance burst in, brandishing his earth-stained shovel.

"Dr Venkman!", he exclaimed. "You're not going to give me another body to bury. It's not my job to do this and the flower beds are being disrupted by all these shenanigans. It stops now."

He raised the shovel in a threatening manner. Dr Venkman was ashen faced and backed off from the aggression. Chance advanced and looked poised to strike. Dr Venkman then stuck out his tongue in an act of defiance. This was the final straw.

Chance angrily swung the shovel down and across in a bid to maim Dr Venkman. Unfortunately for Chance, Dr Venkman was just too quick. MNOWAX never even saw the blow coming. As the shovel hit the head, Chance issued a squeal of shock and slumped to his knees.

"Thankyou", said Dr Venkman with a faint smile on his lips. "As is now very apparent, MNOWAX was the next resident due to leave us. I'd like to thank Chance for providing such timely assistance.". He gave a small bow towards the unwitting assailant.

He then turned to look at what remained of MNOWAX. "Oh, dear, what a mess. Nurses, if you please?", and the nurses reluctantly began the job of mopping up the bits. Chance was in a heap on the floor, sobbing his eyes out.

A black card spilled from MNOWAX's pocket.


Player: jadesmar/MNOWAX
Role Name: The Terminator (The Terminator)
Role: Mafia Goon


===============

[3iff]

Morning arrives, as it usually does.

Dr Venkman wakes early. He can't sleep with all the worry over the last few days. His business is going down the drain as his residents are quickly departing this life.

A few hours later, with some trepidation, Dr Venkman counts everyone coming into the dining room for breakfast, and counts the same five who went to bed last night. He breathes a sigh of relief as the dwindling number of residents is costing him money.

It's Day 4: 5 Alive, 3 to lynch

[Jedo the Jedi]

Awesome.

If you don't think I'm clear based on my play yesterday, then I don't know how to convince you and you are a bad mafia player. Go brush up on your logic or something.

Here's what happened: either Sentran blocked somebody and prevented the kill or the mafia didn't kill hoping I would say, "I got so-and-so of Sentran/Zag as not guilty, lynch the other." I'm not that dumb. If we could go one night without a death, we can go another.

I propose that Sentran tell whom he blocked, then I'll tell my result, then we can talk about where to go.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Zag]

Jedo, I'm glad you got a result. I was waiting to see that you didn't somehow claim to have no result for some reason, which would have made me suspect you. I'm more than 98% convinced, now, that you are who you say you are. I really hope you investigated Sentran, because that is the only way that town guarantees a win. I'm pretty sure that Sentran is the scum, anyway, because if it's TGC (or even Garou), his best move would have been to kill you and let that be our "confirmation" that Sentran has been lying all along. In that scenario, only 4 of us would wake up today, we would lynch Sentran and TGC could claim victory.

I can confirm I was blocked last night. My action was vigilante-kill on Sentran. I figured that a Sentran-townie would have no reason not to block me, but a Sentran-scum might risk it and block you.

I hope you investigated Sentran because I don't even think that you clearing me would save me today: You and others would probably just assume I'm a godfather. I would, too, in your shoes. Here's how I expect the rest of the game to play out

1. You'll lynch me today. You'll find out that I've been telling the truth all along.
2. Jedo will die tonight, which means that only Sentran, Garou, and TGC will wake up tomorrow.
3. Garou, you're the one I most believe is town of the three. Assuming I'm right, you'll have to decide which of Sentran or TGC is the scum. I think it's Sentran: As I said above I don't think that there was any reason for TGC not to kill last night. But you'll have to make up your own mind.

[Jedo the Jedi]

We'll see, Zag. I have some ideas about what to do that I kept to myself yesterday since they were only beneficial if I survived. I have contingency plans for the different possibilities I was able to imagine.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Garou_Kinfolk]

I'm waiting to see what results are posted before making any speculation.
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[Sentran]

I roleblocked Zag, as should have been apparent. He was still the most likely suspect for me, and blocking him gave us no night kill yet again. If anyone else has another explanation for no night kill, let's hear it. In the meantime, Vote: Zag
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Jedo the Jedi]

Sentran, unvote.

Here's the problem: The mafia could have chosen not to kill so that we would lynch without thinking the other person I didn't investigate. Plus, the scum could be you. I got a not guilty for Sentran, but that doesn't mean he isn't the GF. (I'm just keeping my options open for now.)

Like I mentioned before, if we did it one night, we can do it another. If Sentran is telling the truth, then it shouldn't be a problem to run the situation again. If I survive two nights in a row, I'll be much more inclined to believe Zag is scum, but it would actually let me investigate Zag. Plus, we can use our lynch today to make sure Garou hasn't been lying.

I propose we lynch Garou with no loose votes on other people. If he's telling the truth, he should be fine. The only draw back is if his ability has been used as he alluded might be the case. The only thing I can suggest there is that he try to get a confirmation from the mod. If we can't get a confirmation to some effect which will let us assume he will be fine, then we should talk about another option (probably No Lynch). I just want to get as many results as I can.

My thinking with the whole "do it again" scenario is that if Zag isn't the scum, scum will probably want to kill me tonight to avoid me getting too many confirmations. Thoughts?

(And, Zag, I gave a contingency plan for if I woke up dead: you would be confirmed town with my death, you could have confirmed Sentran as town by saying your were blocked, then lynched Garou who would die as scum or survive as town.)
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Zag]

[Zag]

Let me summarize that plan, since it is lost in the text. I believe it is a foolproof win for town.

Step 1: We vote no lynch tonight. Sentran role-blocks me again.

IF no one dies tonight, we get another cop report from Jedo and do it again and again, until everyone has been investigated.
--- IF everyone has been investigated and no one is found guilty, lynch me for being a godfather.
-------- When I flip town, Sentran knows that Garou is the godfather (because TGC has turned up with a real power already). Block him and lynch him the next day.

IF someone (almost certainly Jedo) dies before all the investigation is complete, that clears me.
--- Sentran, TGC, Garou, and I will be left. Sentran declares whom he plans to block, of TGC and Garou, and we no-lynch again.
-------- If there's a death (probably Sentran), then we'll know that Sentran blocked the wrong person and we lynch the other.
-------- If there's no death, we lynch the person (of TGC & Garou) that Sentran blocked, and Sentran blocks the other one.
-------------- If our lynchee is innocent, then we know Sentran will be blocking the last scum. He and I will lynch him the following day.

[Jedo the Jedi]

Just to clarify, we assume Sentran's innocence because you say you've been legitimately blocked?

Anyway, I've read over the plan like three times, and I can't see how it is bad. That's a problem because I'm trying to see how it could benefit Zag (assuming he is scum proposing this, though I currently don't know what I think about his alignment). Probably, there is nothing wrong with this plan in that respect except for the possibility that Zag as scum is being so compliant because he has a "I can't be killed for four days" pass.

All that to say, I don't currently see a reason not to go through with it. It does fall apart if the non-Zag scum decides to target Sentran first instead of me.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Garou_Kinfolk]

When I read this post, my first thought was "Now THAT'S scumtastic!" I'll explain as I go through it.

[Jedo the Jedi]

[Zag]

I've become convinced that Garou is the last scum, so don't bother arguing with him. I have to hand it to you, Garou, for a gutsy claim, which pretty much convinced me. Or maybe you do have a one-time lynch immunity. But you'd be more willing to let us test it if you did.

Sentran, this is mostly on you, as the other person cleared by our cop. I agree that you are being logical in suspecting me. All I ask is to consider the possibility that it is wrong, and go along with this plan that wins for town either way. First let me address some of the nonsense that was posted above:

1. There are not 2 scum left. If there had been 3 scum yesterday they just would have voted together and won based on tie-breaker rules.

2. Jedo is not scum. If he were, he would have voted me yesterday when I was at L-1. (This argument was not certain yesterday, when you didn't know MNO's alignment, and you still had to fear that the scum were Jedo and I. You now know from point 1 that Jedo and I aren't both scum.) Since we can be sure that we aren't both, this is convincing that Jedo is not. I agree that it doesn't clear me, but it clears Jedo convincingly.

[Sentran]

Although I still very strongly suspect Zag of being the GF, I concede that it is a good plan if I'm right. If not, I have no explanation for the lack of night kill, and this game may drag on as the longest 5-man game in history. Considering the fact that I based Garou's townieness on his claim, and that he could potentially be lying, I'll be willing to test-lynch him today. If he lives, at least if confirms that he was not lying about his power. I'd also like to point out that he waffled between the two lynch targets yesterday, like he was unsure about potentially bussing a buddy or trying to sway town to lynch a fellow townie.

Zag, although Jedo could have switched his vote to you yesterday if he were scum, he also could have made a mistake. I'm sure you've never made mistakes as Mafia and then kicked yourself later for missing something simple like that.

Garou, you asked how we know Jedo is not a GF posing as a cop? I think it's a fair question. One thing I thought when I read that, if it was me, was that I'd finger someone else as scum on the last day and hope the town bought it. This still doesn't explain the lack of night-kills, though.

Let's go with Zag's first plan. Unvote, Vote: Garou
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Garou_Kinfolk]

Sorry in advance if this post sounds grumpy. I get that way when I don't get alot of sleep sometimes.

I received a pm from the mod saying my power has not been used yet. If everyone is soo vehement about confirming me, then consider this formal permission to see I've been telling the truth.

vote Garou_Kinfolk

Just need one more now, but before we have no lynch because I can't be today consider the following.

Zag is Scum because he's been blocked twice and no night kills have happened. Don't forget that today he's also claimed a kill ability in addition to the mafia!

TGC is scum, but hasn't been on enough recently to send in the night kills.

Jedo is the gf and playing the town for fools by saying he's a cop.

One of the above is true. Only the scum know which.

Sentran is about the only one at this point I can't say is scum because if he was then Jedo would hase to be town and Sentran is a Roleblocking GF.
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[Jedo the Jedi]

[3iff]

[Garou_Kinfolk]

@Jedo: I want to see who (scum) will drop the hammer on me. I know I'll be back tomorrow, lynch vote or not.
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Most posts made from my phone.

[Jedo the Jedi]

That's ridiculous, Garou, and it doesn't read very town at all.

Somebody explain how I am not the most confirmed town player. Do it. Because we need somebody whom we can trust, and I think every argument for me being scum has been reasonably refuted, GF or not.

So, if I am reasonably town, you should read everything I say as a genuine attempt to root out the remaining scum. I am working to analyze contingencies. I, the most likely town person, am saying people should stop throwing their votes around today. We have the capability to reasonably ensure a town victory, so if you aren't working with me on that, I will begin treating you as anti-town at the least.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Zag]

Ooo. I now see a flaw in my "foolproof plan." If Garou is a scum with a one-time lynch immunity, then he could win by killing Sentran tonight. Of course, he would have seen this and been glad to go along with it. So what else?

I have continued to have a big problem with every explanation so far. TGC or Garou, if they were scum, would have had a pretty easy win by killing Jedo last night. While I am willing to make an explanation based on people making bad choices, I don't really want to believe that they would make one when they have plenty of time to work out the ramifications. So I kept thinking of more reasons.

I know, I know: The townies among you are saying that the reason is obvious, that I'm a godfather. All I can say is that's not the case. Since I know that, I am forced to explore other possibilities.

I've considered Sentran cleared because I don't really believe that 3iff would make a scum role that is role-blocker and investigation-immune. HOWEVER, what about this role: role-blocker/godfather, but HE MUST FORGO THE NIGHT-KILL IN ORDER TO ROLE-BLOCK. I could see 3iff giving that ability. Once he knew that my abilities were limited, he knew he could block me until they were used up, and also turn that into a strong accusation of me.

Note that my plan assumes Sentran is innocent. If he is scum, then the plan fails and he would win UNLESS he fails on one of his night-kills, due to the target being immune. That would explain his conversion to the test-Garou's-ability scheme. Use up his ability with a failed lynch.

Baaah! But there's a way around it. I won't describe it, just in case he missed it before, but pointing this finger at him assumes he made a mistake.

Post Preview edit: Garou, it's ridiculous to assert that only a scum would hammer you. Once you had agreed to the plan, I nearly hammered, just to get this over with. You may not believe it now, but I'm town. It's much more suspicious that Sentran pushed for this approach before you told us that your ability is still intact. If he is telling the truth, I don't see any upside in it, and I don't see any reason for him not to follow my plan above.

In fact, my plan IS foolproof as long as Jedo and Sentran are town. It doesn't even assume that I am. I think that I'm back to thinking that Sentran is scum, with the odd limitation I described above. Since every scenario (from my point of view) requires a mistake by the scum player to already have happened, it is the most likely mistake I see.

[Garou_Kinfolk]

[Jedo the Jedi]

You know, it's fine. We don't have to vote you; the deadline will lynch you. If you are telling the truth, you will be fine, and if you have some "vengeful townie" ability, it will pass to Sentran, the other mainly suspected person. If he flips town and you survive, I'll investigate tonight. If I don't survive the night, you and TGC can kill Zag. I don't give a damn if you are being obstinate and not playing like a townie.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Jedo the Jedi]

Also, it wasn't Zag's first plan to lynch you; it was mine. It was my plan only if the mod confirmed you were still lynch immune. I was holding off until we discovered that to be true, but notice that Sentran didn't even wait for your confirmation.

I don't know why you don't see the numerous problems with your line of thinking. I'm trying to do my best to counter reasonable problems, and you're just damning it all with your attitude.

Tell me who you believe is town so we can work from there, because your play currently seems inconsistent.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Garou_Kinfolk]

[The Great Crep'er]

Hi all, I'm back! Won't be able to post regularly but I will be getting up something today.

[Garou_Kinfolk]

I'm back now. I feel like I'm able to think more clearly now. Didn't mean to apparently hold up the game.

I've been doing some thinking since I've had the time. I've gone over many scenarios in my head as to who could be scum. I had gotten too many possible confirmations from it. So, I've decided to try and find out who is town. I've gone over power uses that have been posted and a few posts that might help out here.

The most relevant post I can find to determine Zags townieness his post on page 4.

[Jedo the Jedi]

I'm just going to say that Zag knows to keep up the act until the mod declares him dead, so that doesn't make his "bah" post genuine.

Otherwise, thanks for the consolidation. That will make processing things easier. Still, the GF kind of screws up all of that.

Should we just go along with Zag's plan? I still can't find a flaw in it, though I'm still a little distrustful because it comes from Zag. (If any scum could come up with a plan that seems foolproof for a town win, it would be Zag.) I feel uneasy about lynching Garou, though if it is a scum power, we should eliminate it today so we can lynch him for real later if we need to. (I'm just not convinced that whoever is the GF doesn't also have a separate power.)
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Zag]