Heroes and Villains mafia - The town claim victory

[Sentran]

We all know that somebody is lying, we just don't know who. My scumreads, in descending order of scumminess, are as follows: Zag, Garou, Jedo, TGC, and myself.

Zag could be lying about his abilities, or at least his uses of them. I keep coming back to a JOAT in the Mafia, which does not seem all that far-fetched to me. In that instance, he could have been the one to block Jedo on night one.

At this point, Garou's ability and therefore his claim is untested. He said that the Moderator informed him that his ability was not used, but we have no proof other than his word. If he is lying, he could still be scum.

Jedo could be lying about his ability and reads as well, and about being role-blocked on night one. That one strikes me as a lot less plausible, as I've already stated.

TGC has demonstrated his power, and I reluctantly agree that it would have been foolish for a mafia member to use it in that fashion on night one. I have a hard time finding where lying would benefit him.

I could be lying as well, but I've also demonstrated that I am being honest about my power.

One final thought. Zag, are you really saying I look scummy for not following a plan that keeps you alive longer? You are my most likely candidate for the final scum, and you even admit as much yourself. Jedo already put a plan in place that would lead to my logical demise if you were not the final scum. His plan proved to work, and so you in response propose another plan that would lead to no kills, even though this usually favors scum. The only flaw I find in the plan is if my ability were limited in use, which it is not.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Garou_Kinfolk]

Here's the scenarios with a GF that I can think of.

Me as GF: Not knowing about Sentrans being a roleblocker, I'd have still NKed night 2&3. I also wouldn't have turned on MNOWAX.

Jedo as GF: He could claim cop and come up with correct "results", winning over certain townies. He'd also would have to have bused his scum buddy to gain town cred.

Sentran as GF: He'd have to have 2 abilities for this one to be correct. Again, he'd have bused his Scum buddy ti gain town cred.

TGC as GF: Again, 2 abilities here, vote wiper/GF. He's also been gone alot recently, which would explain why there was no night kill and part of MNOs final post where he said that he chose not to do a NK.

Zag as GF: His only "proven" ability was the cop clearing of Jedo on night 1. His being RBed coincides with there being no NKs. Knowing that he was going to be RBed last night means he could come up with any 3rd power he chose, in this case a Vig. @Zag: I'd like to know what the other power was you could have used last night was?
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[Zag]

[Jedo the Jedi]

Every time somebody brings up the possibility of me being scum, even a GF, it makes me view them as more scummy.

Facts:

- Sentran claims to have prevented the NK by blocking Zag.
- I ask Sentran whom he blocked N1.
- He claims to have blocked MNO (my scum buddy in the scenario you people keep imagining).
- I claim cop (which has been suspected not to exist), finger MNO (my buddy who is reasonably in the clear with Zag getting flak), and claim to have been blocked N1 instead of MNO (when I could have faked a better result to bolster myself).

You people are suggesting that I made not one, not two, but THREE premeditated errors with my play? I am not that poor of a player. Seriously, I will vote the next player to suggest I am scum and leave the vote there until the end of Day. I am as confirmed town as you can get without a dead cop who previously shared his results.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Jedo the Jedi]

And the reason I haven't vehemently pursued Sentran over the RB inconsistency is because I'm leaving open the possibility of a scum re-director. The fact that you want us to go so strongly against each other is suspicious.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Zag]

For the record, I don't really suspect you. I was trying to be complete, and I realized that I hadn't considered the above scenario (where you are investigation-immune but also can't kill at night). As I implied above, I actually think 3iff wouldn't do that because you'd be too weak, since the immunity is worth a lot less without the cop in the game.

You did actually point out the inconsistency, last night. I'm a little surprised that you didn't make more of a deal about it today, but since you had some possible explanation, it makes some sense.

However, Sentran's lack of mentioning it is a lot more suspicious. Even if he missed it the first time around, he should have addressed it when I quoted it.

I do realize that I am still the most suspicious, in the eyes of most townies. That's why I'm not suggesting anything that would cause you to risk the town to me. But by the time you all learn I've been telling the truth, I won't be here to point these things out.

[Sentran]

What you all appear to be missing is that I have not ignored or glossed over the inconsistency. In fact, my most likely theory is based partially upon that inconsistency. I know that I roleblocked jadesmar, and the claim that Jedo was roleblocked as well means one of two things. Well, three, now that Zag brings up a possibility I had not considered.

1. Jedo is lying. He was not roleblocked, but used that excuse as a possibility to frame someone later. As I have mentioned several times now, I had given a lot of thought to Jedo being scum. However, the longer he rants about the fact that everyone should just accept his word as truth and anyone who doesn't is obviously anti-town at the least, the more I question him. Still, in the light of what has and has not transpired this game, it's much more plausible that he's town than that he's made such egregious and repeated mistakes.

2. Zag is lying. He used his ability on night one not to investigate, but to roleblock Jedo. This is the scenario I see as the most probable.

3. There is a mafia redirector. If that is the case, even Jedo's clearing of people is in question. I'm not too keen on this idea, given that he caught MNO as scum. If the Mafia had such an ability (unless it was a one-shot), they would likely have kept it on Jedo to avoid revealing themselves.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Jedo the Jedi]

Oh, hell. I'm tired of all this dragging out. I don't even care who wins any more. You guys are wearing me out.

Let's just make our decision and go with it. If we're doing Zag's plan, let's lynch Garou and be on with it. If not, let's lynch Zag and Sentran can block Garou tonight.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Garou_Kinfolk]

[Sentran]

Great point Garou. I can agree to letting people make their own choices.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[3iff]

[Zag]

I woke up with a revelation: Sentran is the scum, I'm 98% sure. Or, to put it in terms for people who aren't me, the scum must be either Zag or Sentran, with a much higher probability of Zag.

Garou's ability has not been used. Therefore the only explanation for the lack of night-kill when MNO was still alive is
-- Sentran's explanation: that his role-block of Zag prevented the kill
-- The scum intentionally held off in order to make it look that way

I totally agree that the first is a lot more likely, and it's what I would believe if I didn't know better. Once I'm gone and flip town, you'll know, too. So, play along with me for a second, and pretend to believe me: What does the second reason imply? Note that the first of those non-kills happened before Sentran had announced that he was a role-blocker. The scum would not have had any reason to formulate such a plan unless he was one of them.

Just in case I'm wrong, I would still like to go ahead with my earlier plan, to vote no-lynch three times so Jedo can investigate everyone, but I'm pretty sure that the result will be that everyone is 'not guilty.' Then lynch me, then lynch Sentran, and town wins.

[Garou_Kinfolk]

It looks like we have 2 days to come up with some kind of decision before we hit the soft deadline. I'd be happy to vote for an extension at this point.

For me right now, it's a toss up between Zag and Sentran for most likely Scum, followed by TGC, and Jedo as a distant 4th.
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[Garou_Kinfolk]

While I've been working, a thought came to me. It goes way back to Zags lynch that didn't happen.

Jadesmar hammered Zag on day 1. I don't think he'd be crazy enough to lynch his scum buddy then.
This would also clear TGC for me because, short of day talking scum, they couldn't have timed that that perfectly.
That leaves Jedo and Sentran.
With this, I actually feel confident enough to

vote Sentran

since he's higher on my scum list.
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[Jedo the Jedi]

I likewise was thinking that the choice is really between Sentran and Zag. I was thinking for other explanations for no kill. It isn't likely to have been Garou because he couldn't know that Sentran was an RB and would attribute the no kill to his target. That pretty much clears Garou for me.

So that leaves the possible scum as TGC, Sentran, or Zag. It could be TGC because he hasn't been around, Sentran could have been making a play, or Zag has legitimately been blocked. These reasons fit for any of the nights without a kill, I believe. (Maybe not for TGC. If TGC was around at the time, he would be as cleared as Garou.)

I think maybe we no lynch today, and I'll check TGC tonight while Sentran blocks Zag again. If I am dead in the morning, lynch Sentran. If I'm alive, probably lynch Zag followed by Sentran if Zag is innocent.

Objections?
vote: No Lynch
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Garou_Kinfolk]

The only objection I would have is this. IF we no lynch today and scum kill tonight, that leaves us with 3 town and 1 scum. We'd be at LyLo then. I know it's not a place I want to be at again.

I'm going to go back later and see when TGC began to drop off in posts. I would like to hear from him again, and more then just "I've been busy. I'll post later if I can." Then there's no post.
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[Jedo the Jedi]

Who will they kill though? You and I are clear (as reasonably as possible), and a death would clear Zag. The two alive townies would just have to choose between Sentran or TGC, and I have a feeling who that would be.

I already checked that TGC does drop off in his posts site wide during those nights with no kills, but he could just have sent the order in early. It may even be a ploy to earn credibility. Anyway, if it did come down to a Lylo choice between Sentran or TGC tomorrow, I bet Zag could do some pretty good post analysis. That's really where Zag shines.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Garou_Kinfolk]

Looking at the players from a scums point of view, I get this:

They can't kill me once
TGC is vanilla
Zag is vanilla
Sentran is a role blocker
Jedo is a cop

Highest priority would go to those with an ability, Jedo, Sentran, and myself.
(This is all if Sentran isn't the last scum.)
They'd waste the effort on my, and if I get a message from the mod I would post about it, further clearing myself as well as whoever Sentran blocked.
If they kill Sentran, then whoever he targeted would be cleared, if we know who that is.
If they kill anyone, then whoever Sentran blocked would be clear.
If they kill Zag, then Sentran becomes the lynch target the following day as he is considered the scummiest of the living.
I don't know what would happen if they kill TGC.
If they kill Jedo, it would probably fall on whoever he targeted for investigation, if we knew who that was.

I cannot foresee what the other effects of any of the above would be.
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[3iff]

[Jedo the Jedi]

[Jedo the Jedi]

More thoughts.

If Sentran is scum, he can't hope to break our plan. If he does, he will be lynched quite quickly. So, if he ever claims to have blocked somebody other than we prescribe, he'll be lynched. A town Sentran has no reason to go against us.

Zagscum can't hope to get around Sentran's block. (I won't waste time considering powers we don't know exist.)

TGCscum...well, he's definitely the trickiest option.

Sentran blocks Zag for the rest of the game. If anybody dies tonight, the decision is between Sentran and TGC, and it will be based on analysis of posts. (I still think I would lean toward it being Sentran because I didn't receive a result on N1.) If nobody dies tonight, the decision is between Sentran and Zag with a leaning toward Zag.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[3iff]

Ok, no need to shout...

[Jedo the Jedi]

I can't stop thinking about this.

I'm not convinced about Sentran's innocence. I know the argument in his favor is that a scum GF wouldn't also have an ability, but I can't shake my suspicions. I was blocked N1, and his first target was jadesmar/MNO. Looking back, I see he was expressing some suspicion of jadesmar.

I'm settling on the fact that the final choice is between Sentran and Zag, and there's no reason we can't win that. If Zag is scum, he has been blocked. If Sentran is scum, he and MNO were pulling a gambit. (If TGC is scum, nobody can be faulted for not catching him. The guy hasn't been around.)

So, we lynch Zag, Sentran blocks TGC, and I investigate TGC. If the game isn't over and TGC comes innocent to me or I'm dead, we lynch Sentran. Good?
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Sentran]

Sorry I was away yesterday. I don't like the soft deadlines, but I also don't like the plan creating the longest 5-alive game in history. At this point, the plan with the most merit is the one that keeps the most townies alive for the longest amount of time, which happens to be Zag's plan. Even though I still feel him scummy, I am not 100% sure. I've also been a strong opponent of No Lynch as a valid choice, but it really does seem like a nearly flawless plan. Here goes...
Unvote, Vote: No Lynch
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Garou_Kinfolk]

I read Sentrans post and my first thought was, he ended the day before too much talk gets going about how Sentran is scum and gets lynched. I know who I'm going to be looking at tonight when I reread the thread.

Atleast we know he can't kill anyone tonight without getting himself lynched tomorrow.
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[Zag]

If we all agree to the plan, it should go quickly. If everyone wakes up tomorrow, Jedo announce his results and let's do it again until everyone has been investigated. If anyone turns up dead, lynch Sentran and win.

[Sentran]

[Garou_Kinfolk]

Yes, it's been almost a week since day started. (I went back and looked at the time stamp for day start and your post. 10/18 @ 12:12a.m. to 10/23 @ 8:57 a.m.) I also looked at another important thing. The post numbers. Day started on post 493 and you voted no lynch on post 544. That's just over 50 posts. Content of said posts is important as well. The main topic of the day was what plan to follow and what are the draw backs of any plan provided. I feel there was very little in the way of "I believe this person is the remaining scum and here's why..." It felt like that was just getting started when you no lynched.
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[Jedo the Jedi]

I concur with Garou. I had actually just proposed that we simply lynch Zag today because I don't think TGC is scum. (If he's absent scum, there wasn't much we can do, so I would feel less upset by such a loss.) It is interesting that Sentran was the next post who ended the day. Sentran also didn't interact much with the discussion of how to proceed.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Garou_Kinfolk]

I keep going over everything in my head and the picture keeps getting clearer for me.

I see Zag as town in part because I don't believe Jadesmar would lynch a scum buddy on day one, let alone hammer him.

Jedo is town in part because he didn't take the win when it presented itself to him.

TGC has felt town for most of the game, and I don't think he'd have wasted his ability that early, or with Jadesmar going to hammer a townie.

I know I'm town.

That just leaves Sentran, who I suspected in the beginning of day 3 as being scum with Jadesmar/MNOWAX.
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[The Great Crep'er]

Well, I wish I had been here to protest this result because I feel a no lynch can only limit our options going forward. Even lynching myself I would have been fine with because at least the town is getting a free shot at mafia which we were guaranteed today by MNOWAX's death yesterday. (Simple math) Going into "paranoid TGC" mode, I could easily have seen a third party interfering with things - but damn it all if we just let the mafia take this and push us into a definite 100% lylo position.

I only wish my schedule had been a bit more conducive to the GL. Oh well, things should be cooling down until say mid-December when most mafia activity should be winding down for the year anyways.

[3iff]

Dr Venkman had a grin on his face. He cordially wished everyone a good night and invited them to an enjoyable breakfast the next morning. He wondered if there would be five at the dining table tomorrow...

Chance had an opportunity to have an early night. Nurses never sleep.

There is no lynch tonight.

It is now night. Those with night-related business had better get to it. You all know the drill.

(apologies if I looked like I was trying to rush things, but it was a soft deadline, easily changeable.)

[3iff]

It's morning. Everyone comes down for breakfast, still wondering about the events of yesterday and liking how quiet it had been. Nurse Diesel was busy checking off the arrivals wondering if there would be a full quota today. Someone was absent.

She personally went to investigate. There they were lying in bed, their face a strange and unattractive colour, red and blotchy. Nurse Diesel pulled back the cover and a large dark spider scuttled towands her and then fell from the bedcovers onto the floor. A swift stamp of her foot and the spider was no more. Regrettably, Zag was also no more, having been bitten on the neck by the unwanted intruder. She searched for a card and found a white one.


Player: Zag
Role Name: John McClane (Die Hard).
Role: Jack of all trades, Town


It's Day 5, 4 alive, 3 to lynch.

[Zag]

Baah! Maybe now UMonk will believe me, but I'm not sure he will.

Go Town!!

[Jedo the Jedi]

Damn.

Hey, everybody, Zag is innocent. *sigh*

I got TGC not guilty, but that doesn't mean much. My problem here is I can't get WIFOM stuff out of my head. Logically, we should just kill Sentran and move on, but we had set ourselves up to be so blatant that way that this feels like scum trying to get us to do just that. Of course, that could be what Sentran wants from us. Bah.

I'm actually going to reread before I decide, and I recommend that nobody go throwing their vote around. I'll pretty much believe the first person to vote is scum. I'll be away for the weekend, so I'll try to get this done before then. It may not be until Sunday night though.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Sentran]

Oh sonuvacrap! As expected, I blocked Zag. Whoever is orchestrating this, thanks a heap.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Garou_Kinfolk]

Well that night was shorter then expected. I was going to do my reread today, so I haven't got much beyond what I've posted previously. As things stand, I'm looking at wifom no matter who I look at.
Sentran is obvious scum for today, but we may be lead to think that by the actual scum, as Jedo pointed out.
Jedo could be claiming cop and be scum, but not taking the win a couple of days ago goes against that.
TGC could be the scum. His finals being over coincides with the night kills starting up again, but he's felt and sounded town nearly all game.
Us sitting at lylo, like I said might happen yesterday, is not a spot I like to be in with this many variables. Going to attempt to find something in the reread.
Oh, and I know that I become the next logical choice for lynching as I'm the only one that hasn't been cop cleared. All I can say to that is that I'm town and attempting to lynch me is only going to waste another day and have someone else be night killed, And one of you is the Godfather.
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[The Great Crep'er]

[Sentran]

I expect to be lynched today. I complained about being painted into a corner by Zag's plan when it was first mentioned, and now exactly what I feared has come to pass. Now I even look scummy to myself.

TGC, my 3 options post was theoretical, and plausible possibilities. Now it has been proven that option 2 was not correct. The more I look at who is left, the more I like GK as the final scum. It's true that TGC was gone for a while during our lack of night kills, but if I were scum I'd try to paint it that way as well. GK has been cleared almost entirely due to his power claim, which is as yet untested. Add to that the fact that he has not yet been investigated, and I believe we have our final scum. I have proven that I was not lying about my power, if you take Zag's testimony into account.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[The Great Crep'er]

RBers are still not wholly town, so it isn't particularly damning.