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Nsof
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 10:58 pm Post subject: 1 |
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Today was the second time I heard Red Color's sirens going off. This is the early warning system that alarms everyone in a particular area of an incoming missile giving them time to go/run to shelter depending on distance from. Those close to Gaza have fifteen seconds while those furthest away have three minutes.
In both cases I was in Tel-Aviv studying and all students had to break class and move somewhere safe in under three minutes. Everyone was pretty nonchalant about it: Some chitchatting, some SMSing, tweeting, talking to the professor, and generally behaving like it’s a normal break. After we heard the impact noises we went back to the classroom and resumed where we left off. On Friday the rocket landed somewhere with no population today it was intercepted by Iron Dome. (The system is pretty amazing; it knows where the rockets are going, projects if they land on a populated area and if so, tries to intercept the rocket with over 80% success rate!)
I think this particular round is about to end soon: several counties are already trying to negotiate and basically both sides want this to stop. This could end as early as Tuesday.
Or not. |
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Zag
Unintentionally offensive old coot
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Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 11:19 pm Post subject: 2 |
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| Can anyone articulate what Hamas believes they are accomplishing by sending random rockets into Jerusalem? Is it just piss and vinegar? Or do they actually have an agenda that they believe they are advancing? |
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Amb
Amb the Hitched.
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Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 1:58 am Post subject: 3 |
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| And what happens if Israel decides to move on Iran as well? |
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Jack_Ian
Big Endian
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Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 2:30 am Post subject: 4 |
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| Zag wrote: |
| Can anyone articulate what Hamas believes they are accomplishing by sending random rockets into Jerusalem? |
They are saying "We are still here!" and hoping to recruit new members when Israel retaliates.
I'm guessing Israel's intention is to retain current hostilities at a manageable level long enough to grab enough land (particularly around Jerusalem) before an eventual peace accord.
Both strategies seem to be working quite well. Shame it will cost so many innocent lives. |
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Nsof
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 5:39 am Post subject: 5 |
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| Zag wrote: |
| Can anyone articulate what Hamas believes they are accomplishing by sending random rockets into Jerusalem? Is it just piss and vinegar? Or do they actually have an agenda that they believe they are advancing? |
Shooting at Jerusalem is stupid any way you look at it. My guess is its a mistake.
Before Ahmed Jabari was killed last Wednesday, About 1000 rockets were fired at Israel. I am not sure why. Perhaps what Jack_Ian said although not all were fired by Hamas. Hamas does not always want the rockets to be fired but it does not always have control over all the other militants. See here for a list of rockets attacks.
After killing Ahmed Jabari, it has become a game of retaliation and deterrence. They have to do it because they dont want to be perceived as weak. Israel had to do something because 1000 rockets were fired and they kept quite. Also important, elections are coming in about three months.
As for land grab, Israel does not need to bomb Gaza in order to get territories near Jerusalem (which, btw, is Fatah land rather than Hamas' and is far from Gaza). We are on cold speaking terms with Fatah. The problem is that Fatah and Hamas are not exactly on friendly terms with each other.
Moving on Iran would be, IMO, stupid. It would not accomplish any long term strategic advantage and only improve Iran's position. Lets hope the leaders here are not that stupid.and all that talk on the media is i'm-crazy-so-you-better-do-something-before-I-do tactic |
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Jack_Ian
Big Endian
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Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 4:29 pm Post subject: 6 |
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| Nsof wrote: |
| Israel does not need to bomb Gaza in order to get territories near Jerusalem |
New settlements would be impossible after a concrete peace accord. The longer the conflict continues, the more likely it is that current illegal settlements will become formalised.
I realise that the settlements are nowhere near Gaza, but Gaza is a key part of a complete peace resolution and as long as there is trouble in Gaza, new settlements can proceed. |
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Nsof
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 8:28 pm Post subject: 7 |
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Some people in Israel are thinking "the more we wait the better". It certainly effects decision makers/politicians although I dont think they are a significant factor nor is current operation a result of this kind of thinking. If i want to be cynical I'd say its because of the elections.
Specifically about territories, Israel has proven that when it wants it can relocate settlements. Sinai/Egypt and Gaza are two examples where despite a lot of internal opposition, thousands of people where moved. The same can and would happen when the time for peace with Palestinians comes.
All in all, firing rockets at Israel before the operation started was detrimental to the Palestinians. It pulled the rug from under President Abas' diplomatic efforts. It gives the leaders here the only good reason to start the operation. If it raises any public interest it is short lived. Any decision we reach at the aftermath of such operation is usually tactical and does not last long. They always lose more lives than we do.
I think President Abas has it right or at least trying. He wants a non violent activity and he works in diplomatic ways (going to UN to make Palestine a full member put a lot of pressure on IL, etc. ). Hamas in Gaza, where Abas/Fatah has little control, has been killing his chances in the past several years. How can we make peace with Abas if he cant control Hamas? _________________ Will sell this place for beer |
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Jack_Ian
Big Endian
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Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 8:28 am Post subject: 8 |
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Sorry if my posts seemed flippant. It's just so disheartening to see the power struggles at play while innocent people lose their lives.
Israel needs to win the PR war instead of the military one.
I think it would be better to send a rocket filled with red paint and drop pamphlets specifying where Hamas were located and explaining how ineffective their rockets are at killing Israelis. Hamas rockets are there to kill Palestinians, not Israelis. The more Palestinians that die, the better the PR for Hamas.
We all know Israel will win the military war and we all know Hamas will win the PR war and so long as both sides are winning the war will continue. |
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