Clint Eastwood Mafia Game Over - Town Wins

[Dragon Phoenix]

There are seven of us left, including (assuming competent modding) just one scum (mafia or SK - only Garou is a candidate fo a SK of course). That means we can afford two mis-lynches before we come to the lynch right or lose end game. Those are pretty good odds, so for now, I think it is best to assume that Garou and jadesmar's claims are right. For the time being, sentran gets the benefit of the doubt because of jadesmar's block (that is not a 100% though, to be re-addressed in the end game). I am happy to lynch 3iff or Raearia, whom I consider the scummiest (So far I do not have a read on Raekuul). I think jadesmar should block the other one.

Also, Garou, given the current head count, I think you should not use your final kill the coming night(s). If you are a vig and want to shoot someone, convince us during the day why and we can lynch him/her. There is no benefit risking a mis-fire by a vig.
_________________
My photography:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/artrock2006/

[3iff]

DP: You keep saying I'm scummy...but you are still not saying why you think so.

[Dragon Phoenix]

It's the gut feeling from your iso. If there were clear points, I'd have posted them.
_________________
My photography:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/artrock2006/

[3iff]

DP: Fair enough...you gut is wrong though.

Re claims again.

DP: 1-shot investigator
Garou: 3-shot vigilante

I'm really concerned about the perceived imbalance here. DP did turn up some valid and useful info but giving the vig 3 shots...with a large number of vanilla roles in the game seems very odd. Maybe the mod did set it up this way but it strikes me as being a bit of overkill, putting a great deal of power in the hands of one player.

[jadesmar]

[Sentran]

Due to the current confusion, I decided to take a step back and track with something concrete, the voting history. Of the current players, 3 have been on every bandwagon along with Jedo. Those are 3iff, Raearia, and DP. First, following each bandwagon is a good way to appear as a follower, and keep your head down. Since one scum was on all 3 wagons as well, it also points to a possible link. Here are the other observations.

Garou_Kinfolk: Never on any bandwagons/lynches. This would draw attention to him in analysis, so I tend to believe that he’s a Vig rather than an SK. Votes were for none, jades, and scum.
jadesmar: Also never on bandwagons/lynches, and his votes were for town, Sentran, and none (although he tried to vote for Leonidas after the hammer was dropped. He looks a bit less scummy to me than the 3 followers, but more than Garou.
raekuul: This one raised my eyebrow a lot. He was on two of the 3 bandwagons/lynches, and which ones I find very telling. We have 2 scum on the MNO lynch, and if raekuul was indeed scum, that would put 2 on the esme and Leo lynch as well. It would be a logical division of labor for the scum, with little to tie them together.
Sentran: I was on 2/3 bandwagons/lynches, and both of them netted us scum. My reads have been pretty strong to this point, but today’s reveals have me seriously confused. Hence, the drivel seen previously in this post.

Vote: raekuul
_________________
Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Dragon Phoenix]

[Sentran]

[Dragon Phoenix]

Because if we lynch wrong and he shoots wrong, we are in lynch right or lose tomorrow. I'd rather that the town decides the coming two deaths at the hand of the town, and not Garou by himself for 50%.
_________________
My photography:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/artrock2006/

[jadesmar]

Here are the scenarios to consider..

Garou as SK.
Kills a townie. (4 left tomorrow)
Convinces the town not to kill him (tricky)
Kills the mafia (if they didn't get him first)
SK wins.

Garou as SK.
Doesn't kill anyone tonight. (5 left tomorrow)
Convinces the town not to kill him (easier to do than if he killed someone)
Kills a mafia (if they didn't get him first)
Town and SK left, SK wins.

These are the only two winning scenarios for a revealed SK at this point. So, I think it will be safe to go into night with Garou alive.

unvote

I'd still like to know how we can determine if he's SK or Vig. Or, we can rely on the mafia to just kill him.

If no one dies tonight. Raearia is the mafia because, I'm probably going to block Raearia.

[jadesmar]

If I believe at any point that Garou is going to use his kill, I will block him at the cost of the town gaining further information from my role.

[jadesmar]

[Raearia]

I am telling you I am not mafia. I already said I don't know how else to make you believe me other then offering myself up as the lynch. We can't afford to have you waste your ability on me. Not when it is this close.

Lynch me and block someone else. I really don't want to loose again, lol. I lost in my last game because MNO played his cards pretty well and I feel like I let the town down last time. I really don't want that to be the case again.

I feel that if you do use your ability on me it will only aid the scum in the sense that there would have been a better target. At least if I get lynched we have a better chance of catching/blocking a scum at night. I want us(town) to win, and I know using your ability elsewhere would help that.
_________________
10289 is the end!

[jadesmar]

I'm willing to open it for a vote.

You can vote like this:
jadesmar block: Garou_Kinfolk

Person with the most votes gets blocked. If there are less that 2 votes. I'll block whoever I feel like.

The one in this post.. that doesn't count, I won't be voting.

[Sniklac16]

Deadline extension lifted
_________________
What lies behind us and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.

[jadesmar]

[Raearia]

I view them as 50/50. But I know I am town with no special nifty powers, so I feel that using your ability on me would be a waste and I don't know how to else to proclaim my innocence other then showing I am willing to be lynched. Besides if you say you are going to block me and then do so and no one gets killed then we are back to having more questions.

As far as Raekuul is concerned, Sentran does bring up some interesting points. I am gonna go read back over the thread again.
_________________
10289 is the end!

[jadesmar]

They are very not 50/50.

Consider the following questions:
1. Would you give up the town's ability to lynch for an extra block?
2. Would you give up the town's ability to block for an extra lynch?

[Dragon Phoenix]

Actually, this post has stuck in my mind the last few hours.

[Dragon Phoenix]

[raekuul]

Do we know for certain that the Roleblocker would affect the mafia?

[jadesmar]

[raekuul]

Let me be more specific with what I'm asking, then.

Do we know for certain that it would block the mafia's kill?

[jadesmar]

[raekuul]

Hmm...

I ask because I've been in games where the mafia kill (but only the mafia's kill) was explicitly exempted from being roleblocked.

[jadesmar]

The mafia roles that were revealed were

MNOWAX - mafia roleblocker
Jedo the Jedi - mafia goon.

I'll guess that there's a mafia Godfather.

In that case, my block would probably only stop a kill if I blocked Jedo (goon) (until he died, in which case the Godfather would need to take over the killing). Probably the block works on the Godfather now.

This unclears Sentran in my mind.

[Garou_Kinfolk]

You forgot one.

Leo- Mafia Framer
_________________
Most posts made from my phone.

[jadesmar]

[Sniklac16]

Oh and thank you for pointing out my typo, yes Leo was mafia framer. I fixed the mistake on the first post.
_________________
What lies behind us and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.

[Garou_Kinfolk]

I've given it some thought and decided not to use my power tonight. I would rather the town have an extra day then an extra body.

As far as who should be roleblocked tonight, how about when people vote they also post their second and third scummiest people on their scum lists. The name that comes up the most gets blocked.

I'm currently going over the data I've collected to see what I find. As I said earlier, 3iff is at the top of my current list due to his continual backing of Jedo, questioning those who brought up valid points against Jedo, and what appears to be him skimming through the thread. I'll vote for him after he returns and can defend himself. It's hard to say who is my second and third at this point. I will post on it later.
_________________
Most posts made from my phone.

[Sentran]

My scummy list, in order, is as follows:
raekuul
Dragon Phoenix
3iff
Raearia
jadesmar
Garou_Kinfolk
Sentran

I have considered the fact that GK may be SK, but I dismissed that possibility due to the balance issues I saw. I didn't bring it up at the time, because I want people to come to their own conclusions and not be led down the wrong path by scum.
_________________
Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[jadesmar]

I've decided that its probably not a good idea for the mafia to know who's going to get blocked.

What happens if they just decide not to kill simply because we picked a townie? Probably that townie would get lynched.

[Dragon Phoenix]

[jadesmar]

[Raearia]

Oh man I will so join in on the popcorn eating to watch Sentran argue!
_________________
10289 is the end!

[Sentran]

[jadesmar]

[jadesmar]

Sentran, I consider that response to be an evasion of the question.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Even better.

Of course, 4 mafia and 1 SK is an unbalanced set-up for 15 players.

The logical conclusion is that we have 3 mafia if we have a SK.

Sentran's posted conclusion is that we do not have a SK. Because HE KNOWS THAT THERE ARE 4 MAFIA. Because he is the 4th.

Thanks.

[b]vote Sentran[/b[.
_________________
My photography:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/artrock2006/

[Dragon Phoenix]

vote Sentran
_________________
My photography:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/artrock2006/