Schrödinger's Wolves: Game over, MatthewV (beta wolf) wins!

[Amb]

Err make that something ctuchik hadnt realised.

[Courk]

He wasn't warned by the mod. All groza said was that he's done the same thing before. Perhaps that's a warning, I don't know, but I still think it should be groza's decision what to do with bba's posts rather than yours. Your reaction to it makes me wonder if it was some sort of plan you had in mind for some reason. I know you don't know if you're scum or not, but did he post thoughts that you had that you were withholding for whatever reason? I agree that bba shouldn't be posting, but another player should not take it upon himself to delete a post with content without the mod saying to.

[Amb]

Regardless, I stand by what I did.

Now can we move on and play the game?

[KradDrol]

I didn't see what he wrote. What did he write?

[groza528]

bbbbbbbbba's post only repeated information that I had clarified earlier (post 94), hence I was going to let it stand.
bbbbbbbbba, I appreciate the enthusiasm and interest in the game, but please try to let the players point these things out instead.
Amb, no editing posts. I don't think it's not serious enough for a modkill or anything like that, but if it happens again I may impose a creative post restriction.
I will repeat the comment to make sure everyone catches it: The random investigation result only considers scenarios in which the investigator is a living seer.

[Amb]

So if I go and delete his first post, I get a post restriction that is creative and annoying to everyone else.... mmmmmmmm thats very tempting......

[Amb]

No one seems to be posting. I dont want a deadline because I got thrown out on my math calculations and just figured out the bug- when I could no longer think straight due to a personal emergency.

In the meanwhile - I am in favour of lynching isauteikisa (sorry pal, no disrespect or anything, its just the largest bandwagon available) and moving on.

Can everyone please publish their results. No one is scum yet, so I would expect everyone but isauteikisa to tell the truth.

Me = Lord Kinbote = Innocent.

[isauteikisa]

Why would I not tell the truth? As there is no scum yet, and I happened to luck into this bandwagon, what reason do I have not to be truthful?

Leonidas - innocent. Take it for what you will - I could be lying, Amb could be lying, anyone could at this point.

Vote: KradDrol. Now there are two viable wagons.
_________________
[VXCL] 075-1DR
I'm male, people.

[MNOWAX]

i got so much on my plate as of late, in with Top gler and two other mafia games, plus a slew of RL stuff, and i wish this game to flourish with someone more talkative. Therefore, i am asking for replacement. I am sorry you guys, but good luck!
_________________
The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX

[Courk]

If we all revealed our investigations, wouldn't that allow us to figure out who has what percent? That would identify the 15%er, whether or not s/he wants that to be revealed. Sorry, I'm not giving my result.

[Ctuchik]

I still believe that it doesn't matter at all who we lynch.
TGC got replaced and now MNOWAX does no longer want to play, so I would rather lynch him than isauteikisa. Unvote; Vote: MNOWAX

[Amb]

Unvote; Vote MNOWAX

[MatthewV]

I also don't believe in revealing the information I have.

vote MNOWAX (please don't replace him...we need someone who doesn't want to play to lynch today.)

[Courk]

Unvote
Vote: MNOWAX

[Leonidas]

unvote, vote: MNOWAX

[LordKinbote]

unvote; vote: MNOWAX

[KradDrol]

Unvote; Vote: MNOWAX

[MNOWAX]

unvote, vote MNOWAX

ok no replacement needed then.
_________________
The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX

[groza528]

Update coming momentarily. By the way, thanks to random.org for all the randomizing

[groza528]

Everyone in the town eyes each other suspiciously. It's difficult to tell who is guilty; nobody seemed to be considerably more evil than anyone else. There's much discussion, and names thrown about, but no decision could be reached for quite a while.
Finally, MNOWAX steps forward. "Stop, stop it! I can't take this argument. Strap me to the pyre. I will burn today."
"MNO, you don't have to--"
"I have seen horrifying things recently*," says MNOWAX. "Dreadful things, things that make me question my own inner being. I cannot trust myself to keep safe my neighbors, for whom I care deeply. If I am the wolf I cannot bear to watch you suffer. And if I am not, these visions may drive me insane. Please let me die. I cannot go on any longer."
Not giving anyone else the chance to rebut, MNOWAX climbs on top of the pyre. Some of the townsfolk begin to weep at his noble sacrifice, wondering whether they would be able to make the same choice themselves. The more composed members of the town lash his arms and legs to the pyre, and light it.
MNOWAX screams in agony as the fire begins to burn his flesh. The screaming subsides, and at the moment just before it ceases completely, you swear you hear a whisper: "Thank you."
An aura of remorse permeates the crowd. You're not certain how you can tell, but MNOWAX's soul was pure. You've sent an innocent villager to his death. But at least he went willingly.
The sun is beginning to set. You return to the relative safety of your home and try to sleep.

It is now night 1. All players please send attack targets (mandatory) and investigation targets (optional); they may be the same but do not have to be. Kills have to be processed before investigations, so I cannot send any results until everyone is in.

* _{This is just patter. It is not a hidden clue about the results of MNO's investigations.}

[groza528]

You awake with a chill as the sun peeks through the crack in your broken shutters. Sometime during the night your blanket must have fallen off the bed. How it got to the other side of the room, however, remains a mystery. You step out of bed to face another uncertain day, though your mind feels a little clearer than when you went to bed last night.
Stepping into the town square, you notice that everyone is present, but some of your neighbors have become partially transparent, as though only a portion of them were walking around in front of you. You look down at your own hands and seem solid enough, but who knows how you look to the others.

[Amb]

Those percentages indicate only 4 people were attacked out of the 9 of us.

I have done some very basic math at the moment. By law of probability, I am presuming Courk to be person #10. I'll try and explain my thinking by the weekend - but im busy until then.

[MatthewV]

So Amb is one of the people who tried to kill someone.

[MatthewV]

I am curious as to what could make someone's evil percentage jump from 21 to 34 (player 06).

[KradDrol]

I thought everyone had to try and kill someone?

[MatthewV]

That is true. Did everyone really double up?
groza- did everyone attempt to kill someone as required?

[Amb]

@MatthewV: Possibly found guilty by more than one person.
@Kraddrol: Kills were not compulsory.

Im going to elaborate on what I did. First of all - this game is primarily a puzzle, not a mafia game. The mafia game is secondary to that. The fact that some Courk-like players wont let us try to use the info to solve the puzzle is disappointing. So I decided to try something. I attempted to kill Courk, and I investigated her. I got her as Innocent. That meant her %age dead should go up, and her %evil should go. While I cannot conclusively prove that Courk is person #10, I can logically guess so. I also have opinions about who LordKinbote could be.

What I now want to do is work on increasing the odds of me being a seer. Im not sure if that is possible without lynching someone I found innocent. This of course is foolhardy. We should lynch today someone found guilty. Would anyone be willing to share such a result if they got one? (Even if its me, which I highly doubt)

[Amb]

Kills were mandatory.

[groza528]

[Leonidas]

This is the mod's table before the lynch.

[Courk]

I don't see how you can get 27% from those numbers.

Also, since an alpha cannot kill its beta, were those scenarios removed before or after the dead % was determined? To me it seems they would be removed before, but I really don't know.

Finally, I'm not player 10.

[Courk]

Actually, it seems if you use this day's % evil numbers, divided by 2 to get "% alpha", you can do better at getting sums that equal the % dead. I just did a rough estimation since it's nearly 3 am, but if anyone else wants to have a go, try it that way.

[KradDrol]

That can't be right though. First off, adding all the alfa% together gives 101%, not 100%. Second, there's no way to add the alfa% together to get the 27% dead figure that we see for players 1 and 10.

[Leonidas]

I can't remember if groza went for investigations first or kills first. If he went for investigations first, then your method is not only more practical, but also the correct one.

[Leonidas]

(I was talking to Courk)

[KradDrol]

So, if seer results are processed before kills.

[KradDrol]

It has to be investigations first, because otherwise there's no way to attain the 27% dead number.

[Courk]

That could lead to a bit of a paradox, couldn't it? Groza figures out the day numbers to figure out % dead, but what if someone is then put at 100%? Their % evil would then either be 0 or 100, which affects their target, etc.

I need to stop thinking and just sleep.

[MatthewV]

Kills had to be processed before investigations. Groza said this in the dusk post.

100% or 101% -- rounding caused this. I wouldn't worry about it.

[Leonidas]

If my table is right (kills before investigation hypothesis), then:

27 ~ 10+10+9
27 ~ 13+13

if you neglect rounding errors.

Which opens the door for interesting discussions.