Schrödinger's Wolves: Game over, MatthewV (beta wolf) wins!

[Leonidas]

And now to the other results:

22=10+12
and
24 = 12+12

It works.

[Leonidas]

(And it is consistent with what I am reading in the thread. )

[Amb]

[Leonidas]

I agree.

Leo Assessment(Expected value(MattV evil)) = 25%

based on the data at hand.

[MatthewV]

I would have sent in a kill even it was optional. Based on Amb's opening post, it looked reasonable that only four people had attempted a kill. And the people (remember at this point I was thinking person) who attempted to kill #10 had a greater percentage than the other four attacked people. Finally, Amb thought he was attacking #10.
The conclusion I jumped to was that Amb has a higher scum percentage.
But I investigated Amb on one of the two nights and found him to be innocent.

[Courk]

So did I.

[Amb]

My percentage evil is one of the lower ones on the board. But you expected that. Im trying to work out how to make myself the seer (Note to self, not possible, give up)

[Leonidas]

At this stage someone probably has a guilty result. Please share. I would hate to lynch MattV (although he probably deserves it...).

[Courk]

Oh, heck, why not?

Neo's scum if I'm the seer.

[Amb]

Vote Neo

Someone attacked me during the night. So I want to see if it was Neo.

[Leonidas]

Maybe we can get others to post guilty results before we decide on our target. But yes, unless we get new information...

Any other guilty results?

[Neo]

There are others more guilty than I am. I'm not the lowest, but I'm not even close to the highest.

I wanted to start testing a theory last night. I attacked the same person I investigated. I've also had two innocent results.

I'm really confused about the current "Lynch MattV" thinking. I know somebody has to die, I just seem to keep missing the reasoning. Lead balloon, anybody?
_________________
_{Ad Astra}

[Courk]

Would it beneficial for us to say who we attacked?

[MatthewV]

I have Courk as guilty. That is the other reason I doubted Courk was #10.

I must mention that revealing all the kill choices today would give us an edge on today's lynch. If you look at the table, all the people attacked also have a low % evil. So if we kill someone who wasn't attacked, we have about %5 better odds. HOWEVER we would be more likely to lose someone once the wolf was found because their night 2 kill would be successful.

[MatthewV]

Now that I think about it, I would rather not reveal who I attacked or try to force a mass claim. This amount of information would likely be enough to solve Player-number puzzle a bit too throughly. Also, it would be hard to lie about the kill-sent information because of the doubling that occurred.
It might make an interesting puzzle but a rather boring mafia game.

[Amb]

Amb = Seer. Courk = Innocent, Lord Kinbote = Innocent.
Amb = Mafia. Courk = Slaughtered.

Sounds great to me. It was a revenge killing

I hope that helps make the math easier for others. I still see this primarily as a puzzle, not mafia. I'm finding it quite frustrating that others arent on the same wavelength.

[MatthewV]

I do see it as a puzzle. But giving away information would help others solve it. And if it was clearly solved, there really wouldn't be much point in the game. And at the same time, giving away what I know truthfully would not help me solve the puzzle. (Everything I have said so far has been truthful). And I am not even one of the more evil people.

[MatthewV]

Currently, I would be happiness lynching from {Ctuchik, LordKinbote, Neo}. This is based off of knowing nothing about these players in the game and their low participation today.

[KradDrol]

I got an innocent result on Neo. I'm OK with a lynch of either of the other two.

[Courk]

I don't know how relevant this is, but from the player list I would have expected me, Amb, MattV, Leo, and Neo to have been targeted. Now, only 4 people were, which is fair enough, but it's actually at least two people from the list who weren't targeted, because I did not try to kill anyone mentioned. I'm actually a bit shocked someone doubled up my choice.

[Courk]

Would lynching one of the more evil be a plan for today? The more dead you are, the less evil you are (that's an odd sentence). If we all revealed who we tried to kill, we'd get a list of those not attacked, and could lynch one of them. *shrug* It's been 4 days an no one's said anything.

[MatthewV]

The problem with lynching someone who is less dead (and at the current state more evil) is that we would be more likely to lose someone via wolf attack.

My personal conclusion was that it would be best to lynch someone who wasn't attacked (the greater evil perspective) but not to figure out exactly who was attacked before we start voting. So basically choose someone and then hope for the best. This day is still random...but a little less random than yesterday.

[MatthewV]

vote Ctuchik. We are stalled.

[Ctuchik]

From the info that I have Courk is currently the most evil player.
Therefore I'll have to Vote: Courk

[Courk]

How do you figure? Most evil is at 34%, with 0% dead. Next are 29% evil, 26% evil, 25% evil, and 24% evil -- and they're all at 0% dead, too. Amb's already said he attacked me, so I'm one of the 4 who are, shall we say, wounded. That means I'm either 20% evil, 9% evil, 21% evil, or 12% evil -- hardly the most evil.

Vote: Ctuchik

[KradDrol]

I got to agree with Courk's reasoning there:

Vote: Ctuchik

[Leonidas]

vote: Ctuchik

[isauteikisa]

Vote: Ctuchik

let's get some more info and move from there.
_________________
[VXCL] 075-1DR
I'm male, people.

[groza528]

The sun begins to set on the second day and the town realizes that they have to make a decision quickly. After a long day of deliberation, the town makes a snap decision to burn Ctuchik.
"You're making a mistake!" shouts Ctuchik. "I'm innocent! Well, pretty sure, at least."
You try to ignore his shouts, but you can't help but wonder about his claim. Oh well, you'll find out soon enough. You pass the lighted torch to one of your neighbors, who ignites the pyre.
In Ctuchik's death throes, a peculiar aroma wafts to your nose. The pleasant smell almost entirely overpowers the odor of burning flesh, but you can't quite place it.
Suddenly, it hits you. You are smelling a variety of herbs, notably tea leaves.

You have lynched the seer. It is now night 2. Please send attack targets ASAP; for obvious reasons, investigation targets are no longer necessary.

[groza528]

Note: Please do not attack the same person you attacked on night one. In any subgame where you are the dominant wolf that person is already dead, so you shouldn't need to target someone twice (unless the alpha wolf gets lynched, then you could be the beta and target someone you failed to kill before for being subordinate).

[Ctuchik]

Hah! That's what you get for lynching me!
I'll take the secret who I investigated and what the results were to my grave!
Go wolves ;)

[groza528]

The sun rises and you greet another day. With each morning your thoughts become clearer, but things are far from certain.

[Courk]

Thinking out loud:

Just going by CTU's seer portion of the spreadsheet, which is the only part that can be true any more, there were 56 possibilities left, after removing all of the possibilities where MNOWAX was scum. ON night 1, there would have been 8 attacks under CTU's section that were possible. MNOWAX couldn't make an attack due to being dead, and CTU has no ability to attack since he's the seer. Everytime X attacks Y, the situation where X is alpha and Y is beta is disproven, so this allows us to get rid of 8 more combinations, leaving us with 48. There are again 8 able to attack today, since CTU died, and we were not allowed to attack the same person, so every X is alpha, Z is beta situation is disproven, leaving us with 40 possibilities at most. CTU never found anyone guilty, otherwise we'd have someone at 100% evil. So this means his 2 investigations yielded innocents. That means about another 11-13 scenarios are disproven by each of CTU's investigations. One of these could have been MNOWAX, though, so our potential maximum scenarios left is 29.

After multiplying the percents evil by the potential number of scenarios left, it seems 24 scenarios left is the most likely. It was the only one to yield close-to-whole-numbers for the evil scenarios left for each person. For example, 26 scenarios left yielded 8.58 scenarios remaining for 33%. As 8 or 9, that would yield 31% or 35%. 24 scenarios remaining gave 6.96 for 29% (7), 10.08 for 42% (10), 7.92 for 33% (8), 6 for 25% (6), and 9.12 for 38% (9).

After some more number crunching, I know of the 8 alive, only 5 could possibly attack me (not Amb, he already had, and not whoever else attacked me before, and I didn't attack myself). Of those 5, it seems that 4 did attack me, which is what I'd have done given what CTU said before his burning. All this means that there's one person who didn't attack me, and this person had to have attacked player 9, since that's the only new victim. Using the admittedly crude method of just using half of the day evil% to estimate a person's ummm... night-attack strength, it seems player 6 attacked player 9, though it could have also been player 5 or player 8.

I'm just rambling now and am quite certain I helped no one.

[MatthewV]

So...what numbers should we be attempting to lynch today?

5 and 8 have the greatest percent evil, but won't be dying later.
9 is just as evil as 6 but has a chance of dying.
7 and 1 aren't too bad on the evil but are somewhat dead.
2 and 10 shouldn't be lynched.

Personally, I think I would be happy if today's lynch fell in {5, 8, 9, 6}.

[Amb]

My PC is back and operational. I will post a catch up with thoughts on the weekend. Sadly I lost all my math for this

[Leonidas]

Based on what I have read, I believe I know the identity of the following players: 1, 2 and 10. I will therefore avoid those players - including player 1 who is not our best choice for today.

As it is, I'm happy with, say, LordKinbote or Neo.

[Courk]

I'd be fine with either of them, as well. Neither has the most stellar posting record. Neo last posted 2 weeks ago, and that post was 2 weeks after his second-to-last post. Lord Kinbote has a total of 3 posts, I believe, his last on May 21, and another 12 days before that.

I think Neo would have been more likely to have been attacked at some point in the past, and of the 5 numbers you don't have an idea on, the most evil are the least dead, so Vote: Lord Kinbote

[Neo]

I have a question.

Should one of the players become 100% evil, do people they've targeted at night become more dead?
_________________
_{Ad Astra}

[Leonidas]

[isauteikisa]

@Leonidas - ouch, though the name is designed to be very hard to remember.

Speaking of my lack of contribution, I don't know what to say in here. I have my own ideas of who is what number based on my sent attacks, but I'm not certain how much of my analysis is useful and how much would just muddy the waters.

And as far as targeting... why not target inactives? They're certainly not fighting back :p
_________________
[VXCL] 075-1DR
I'm male, people.