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Leonidas · Membre Daedalien

I'm here, and reading.

From what I understand, the mod generates all possible configurations at the beginning of the game, and then starts destroying universes based on game outcomes. Thus if your probability of being evil now is 21%, it means that in 21% of the remaining worlds, you are mafia.

It is a bit frustrating not to be able to punish game for their actual role at this stage. Holding my vote for now.

Leonidas · Membre Daedalien

'punish players' not 'game'.

Amb · Amb the Hitched.

Amb · Amb the Hitched.

Interesting thought:

If we list out our investigations, all of which are innocent, and lynch one of those and they turn out to be innocent - we may be able to directly affect who becomes the seer by increasing the odds that their vision was correct.

If we lynch someone who wasnt found innocent what happens? I highly doubt we can manipulate that - any thoughts anyone?

Amb · Amb the Hitched.

The issue being is that outs the cop, and seals his fate. Perhaps I should take that suggestion back...

Amb · Amb the Hitched.

Also what would happen if all players bar one investigated the same person tonight. Would we be able to match the number of branches of where they are innocent to the percentages of evil in anyway?

I investigated someone last night and got Innocent. This means that any branch where I am the seer, person X is also innocent.* If someone else was to have investigated the same person and got the same result, we increase the odds of innocence. Since a person who investigates themselves always gets innocent (they are innocent in a branch where they are the seer), then the agreed target could pick someone else from there.

* Because I got innocent, any branch where I am the seer and person X is guilty has been eliminated.

Amb · Amb the Hitched.

Theoretically, if everyone returns innocent, we have a guaranteed townie. The odds of this should get better as we go along, provided the real seer survives.

Neo · Daedalian Member

I've been playing with some numbers on that. So far there are just too many variables, unless I'm missing something.

The biggest issue is that the results are random. What if half the results are guilty and the other half innocent?

It's going to take multiple nights to start collapsing it down to something we can analyze. And that's assuming nobody lies.

And we still run the risk of completely screwing the Seer. We can pretty much kiss him goodbye the night after he's publicly outed, since I assume at that point whomever ends up evil will have a pretty general idea about that.
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_{Ad Astra}

Ctuchik · Daedalian Member

Yeah, but the cop is not going to die as long as the wolves are still uncertain, thus it might be useful to identify the seer as quickly as possible. He can then define people's role by investigating them.
Unvote

Neo · Daedalian Member

Neo · Daedalian Member

Oh, and I just actually read the rules that groza posted, instead of just glossing over the post as stuff I already knew.

I'd been working on the assumption that no-lynch would be a good option. No lynches are not permitted in this game though, so I was wrong.
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_{Ad Astra}

Courk · Daedalian Member

Is there any possible way we can kill scum today? I mean, if it's all random and even the highest % evil is still only 20-something%, we're all still mostly good. I don't think I understand how it's decided what a person is once they die. Does groza flip a coin or whatever with heads=innocent, and then any people who found that person guilty have their possibility of seerdom eliminated?

Amb · Amb the Hitched.

Id say whoever we lynch will probably be innocent.

If we lynch an innocent who was found innocent by an investigation then we might affect the seer.

Any info Groza can determine - so can we. We just have think like the mod.

Unvote; Vote The Great Crep'er

Amb · Amb the Hitched.

Assuming no Beta Wolf (which we have) then the probabilities looks a bit like this:

Amb · Amb the Hitched.

I created a combinations spreadsheet, it wasnt too hard. I can use this to make calculations now Revenge most foul!

Courk · Daedalian Member

Can that be shared? Would that be allowed?

Neo · Daedalian Member

I don't see why not, but we'll see what groza says.

And since TGC can post in other games, but not here, I'm going to stop waiting on him and vote The Great Crep'er for being the most probable (in my opinion) detriment to the game.
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_{Ad Astra}

Amb · Amb the Hitched.

Im trying to work out a way of posting it easily. Will get back to you.

Courk · Daedalian Member

I assumed you had an Excel sheet -- I was thinking just post a link to download that.

MatthewV · Daedalian Member :_

Unvote Neo
{Amb, Courk, Neo} -- people I know are smart, helpful, active
{Leonidas, MNOWAX} -- halfway house
(The Great Crep'er, Ctuchik, KradDrol, LordKinbote} -- people I am not too familiar playing with. I would vote for any from this set today.

All sets brought to you by ElitisThinking. Have a nice day.

Amb · Amb the Hitched.

LordKinbote is very smart. I'd not include him myself.

MatthewV · Daedalian Member :_

OK- that leaves three.

Dice Roll:

Original Roll String: 1d3
1 3-Sided Dice Results: 1

MatthewV · Daedalian Member :_

So it appears my first choice would be TGC.

Amb · Amb the Hitched.

http://www.glpics.com/amb/Wolves/Wolves.htm

That is all the combinations. As we get stuff, we should be able to eliminate more possibilities. Deaths will help Revenge most foul!

Amb · Amb the Hitched.

For reasons I dont understand the HTML has merged every blank cell that was next to another blank cell into one row. Dangit. The XLS file is in the same directory.

Leonidas · Membre Daedalien

groza528 · No Place Like Home

Vote Count
3 Amb (KradDrol, MNOWAX, The Great Crep'er)
2 The Great Crep'er (Amb, Neo)
1 KradDrol (LordKinbote)
1 MatthewV (Leonidas)

3 No Vote (Courk, Ctuchik, MatthewV)

And just as a reminder, as Neo pointed out, "No Lynch" is not allowed.

Also, I have no problem with sharing math etc.

groza528 · No Place Like Home

Clarification: I have no problem with sharing math etc. as long as it's in this thread and available to everyone.

Courk · Daedalian Member

Unrelated to the game:

Amb: How'd you get row 1 to always stay visible as you scroll down?

Amb · Amb the Hitched.

Its under the Window/Split menu in Excel. Im not sure where the option is the newer menuless rubbish version of Excel2008.

Courk · Daedalian Member

It's cold and rainy here, so I've been playing with the spreadsheet. If someone found someone guilty, that eliminates 56 possibilities. Don't know if that's worth anything, but there ya go.

Amb · Amb the Hitched.

Thats possibly another reason to have everyone investigate the same person tonight - excluding that person, and anyone who has investigated said person previously.

To get anywhere in this game, we need another night I suspect.

Courk · Daedalian Member

Vote: KradDrol because I do not like the reasoning behind voting for Amb. Amb tends to draw scum, so we need to kill him now in a game that's completely random?

KradDrol · Daedalian Member

Ctuchik · Daedalian Member

Amb · Amb the Hitched.

Thats 5. Its normal to give people chance to speak, but in this situation, it will only allow us time to think more deeply about the maths.

With MatthewV's indication of voting TGC, I suggest we do 2 things:

1. Unvote to stop a rush lynch (This isnt 1 of the 2 things 'we' should do)
2. Make an agreement about who to investigate en masse (if we agree to do that of course). I am happy to volunteer to be the mass target should we go that way, and I will direct my investigation at Kraddrol.
3. Make agreements about who to kill when we all submit kills. We maybe could get some agreement from people at a stage when we are all 'town'.

If we go to night without any form of agreement we will get random results, and allow people a better opportunity to lie as they start to figure out their odds of being scum is higher. Tonight is probably the best night to control everything just because everyone in the game thinks they are town.

For the record then:

I intend Investigating Kraddrol.

I will probably send my 'kill' at MatthewV for being the one of the only other non me persons on the current vote list. (Maybe Ctuchik instead)? This of course wont kill MatthewV, it will simply give him a partial "Death"

The Great Crep'er · 2% Spambot

I'm being lynched because I did not make a spreadheet? rofl

Definitely check KradDrol if he hasn't already. Very scummy post by him.
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Potato. Belgium. Eight. Random Lynch # Mafia awaits.

The Great Crep'er · 2% Spambot

Well then Amb can investigate KradDrol.

Bah @ town for speedlynching me if they do. Go scum. Revenge most foul!

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Potato. Belgium. Eight. Random Lynch # Mafia awaits.

Amb · Amb the Hitched.

TGC - it is now more blatantly clear that you havent read or understood the game. This is not mafia as any of us have ever seen before. To me, that post seals your fate, and just leaves us to decide what (if anything) to do with night actions.

I suggest, if you want to survive, that you reconsider the game very carefully and then post in a fashion that shows you understand exactly what is happening right now. Then and only then will I not replace my vote on you.

The Great Crep'er · 2% Spambot

Fine then, I can't be bothered to play, please replace me.
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Potato. Belgium. Eight. Random Lynch # Mafia awaits.