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sAbLLimINal
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2009 6:49 pm Post subject: 281 |
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Wait a minute, Snicklac16 was killed, but he was a mason which could mean that he mismasoned, which could mean that there is no killer.
This makes sense because the killer and mafia could joint win, but nobody has done that, which makes me to believe there is no killer.
I still believe Lamont is scum. |
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Lamont_Cranston
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2009 7:04 pm Post subject: 282 |
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Well, excellent analysis post (I mean the fact you posted it far more than the content )
So you're saying that me & Courk are scum buddies? Well I can understand that... I definitely see Courk as pro-town and have supported her as such throughout the game.
The following people are cleared town: Loki & MNO
That leaves the following people as potential scum: Courk, CreativeSab, Zag, Lamont
Now, CreativeSab has done nothing this whole game but lurk except for D1. On D1 he: Voted Wall_E (town) & voted MNO (town). After this he just drops off the radar. Now the question is, who is his scum buddy?
This leaves Courk or Zag...
I'm definitely leaning Zag but I am conflicted because of MNO's read on Zag and his respoonse when "claimed" scum by MNO...
I think a CreativeSab lynch will clear this up...
Vote CreativeSab _________________ Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? |
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Courk
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2009 7:21 pm Post subject: 283 |
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| sAbLLimINal wrote: |
Wait a minute, Snicklac16 was killed, but he was a mason which could mean that he mismasoned, which could mean that there is no killer.
This makes sense because the killer and mafia could joint win, but nobody has done that, which makes me to believe there is no killer.
I still believe Lamont is scum. |
1. I'm a girl
2. I don't understand the quoted post. "mismasoned"??? |
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sAbLLimINal
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2009 8:04 pm Post subject: 284 |
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Lamont, I'm replacing loki, not creative.
mismason is when the mason choose to mason someone, but they are killed because they picked scum. |
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Courk
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2009 8:16 pm Post subject: 285 |
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I see.
It's possible the masonry could recruit, but the two masons we have are paired together in the book. It'd be quite a coincidence if one just happened to recruit the other. Plus, this is a small game. I think a recruiting masonry would be too powerful. |
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Lamont_Cranston
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2009 8:23 pm Post subject: 286 |
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Oh crap. Sorry. Working too hard, sleeping too much.
Unvote
I will wait to hear from Creative. _________________ Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? |
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Lamont_Cranston
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2009 8:24 pm Post subject: 287 |
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| Courk wrote: |
I see.
It's possible the masonry could recruit, but the two masons we have are paired together in the book. It'd be quite a coincidence if one just happened to recruit the other. Plus, this is a small game. I think a recruiting masonry would be too powerful. |
I agree here. _________________ Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? |
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Lamont_Cranston
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2009 8:29 pm Post subject: 288 |
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Ok, so LokiSab & MNO are cleared.
That leaves Courk, Creative, Zag
I'm going to vote Creative until I hear from him.
Vote Creative _________________ Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? |
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Zag
Tired of his old title
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Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2009 8:48 pm Post subject: 289 |
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Hi all,
I tried, I really tried, just to stay quiet, since I mostly seem to put my foot in it when I speak my mind, but it isn't in me.
First off, I want to say that I'm over my little snit with MNO. Sorry, MNO, I didn't take it well when I felt so jerked around. But I do have a question re post #246. If you DID feel that way, why did you choose me to make your accusation against? I don't get it.
I would like, for a moment, to mention the elephant in the room: the double kill last night. I know that MNO's theory is that it means that there is a vig or SK, plus a mafia roleblocker who blocked that person on the first night. If that's the case, then doesn't it mean that all the mafia know who the vig/SK is, because they know whom they blocked on the first night? (Or does only the one roleblocker get to know whom he/she blocked?) So the other townies are the only one who don't know the identity. I guess also that it is only the player himself knows which, vig or SK, he is. (... or she -- it might be you, Courk!)
I have figured out one thing. By doing stupid stuff and appearing scummy, off and on through the game, I have kept the mafia from killing me. I'm bound to get myself lynched all on my own, soon enough! Here's hoping it isn't tonight! I don't THINK I've done anything to arouse suspicion in this note, but I've thought that before and been wrong. |
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Zag
Tired of his old title
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Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2009 9:01 pm Post subject: 290 |
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Wow! Five notes simulposted with that one.
sAb, you shouldn't be surprised that Lamont got confused about whom you were replacing, he didn't even know that HE was the one to replace Wall-E (see post 135). |
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Zag
Tired of his old title
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Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2009 9:09 pm Post subject: 291 |
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| Zag wrote: |
| But I do have a question re post #246. If you DID feel that way, why did you choose me to make your accusation against? I don't get it. |
In rereading, I guess you did answer this, in post #256. I guess I see your point, but I don't see that your test necessarily smoked anything out, other than Lamont's willingness to follow orders. On the other hand, your logic does work, that certainly scum would jump on the chance to have a good excuse for voting a townie, so I don't think it is any evidence in his favor, either.
Yay for multi-posts!!
Since everyone else has them, my FoS: Creative, Lamont, Courk. |
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MNOWAX
0.999... of a Troll
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Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2009 9:11 pm Post subject: 292 |
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Zag - if i made an accusation on scum the scum wouldn't have blindly followed the lynch. the scum need a townie to lynch to win. I figured you were a townie, and the scum would follow into the trap _________________ The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX |
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Courk
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 2:09 am Post subject: 293 |
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| One thing about the roleblocked on the first night = vig/SK is that a vig didn't necessarily try to kill anyone night 1. In fact, it'd be rather stupid for a vig to do so. The roleblocker could block townie A, leaving vig B alone, with vig B choosing not to kill anyone. |
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Zag
Tired of his old title
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 2:32 am Post subject: 294 |
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Thanks, MNO. But I assume you saw my simulpost.
Also, thanks, Courk. I realize that I had even thought of that before, but then forgot it. That makes me feel better, though I have no idea why. |
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Lamont_Cranston
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 3:55 am Post subject: 295 |
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| Courk wrote: |
| One thing about the roleblocked on the first night = vig/SK is that a vig didn't necessarily try to kill anyone night 1. In fact, it'd be rather stupid for a vig to do so. The roleblocker could block townie A, leaving vig B alone, with vig B choosing not to kill anyone. |
Uh... My brain is hurting again... The chances of this are... slim?? I mean the natural timing of the thing is more likely isn't it?  _________________ Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? |
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sAbLLimINal
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 4:04 am Post subject: 296 |
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| If there is a vig in the game, the best strategy is to not shoot night 1 and only shoot when they are sure that person is scum. That is, of course, if the vig has the option to not shoot. |
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Lamont_Cranston
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 4:41 am Post subject: 297 |
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| sAbLLimINal wrote: |
| If there is a vig in the game, the best strategy is to not shoot night 1 and only shoot when they are sure that person is scum. That is, of course, if the vig has the option to not shoot. |
SK would be the only other option. _________________ Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? |
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Courk
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 4:57 am Post subject: 298 |
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| Lamont_Cranston wrote: |
Uh... My brain is hurting again... The chances of this are... slim?? I mean the natural timing of the thing is more likely isn't it?  |
What's more likely:
1. Someone choosing the smart play as a vig and just not killing someone, while the mafia have something like an 85% chance of *not* targeting the vig.
2. Mafia having ~ 15% chance of blocking the only other killing role night 1, and doing so successfully. |
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Courk
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 5:00 am Post subject: 299 |
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| Meant to add that those figures are heavily rounded just to give the general idea, since more precise figures require knowing how many mafia there are and how many people were alive going into night 1 -- something I'm a bit too lazy to do right now. |
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Lamont_Cranston
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 6:34 am Post subject: 300 |
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| Courk wrote: |
| Lamont_Cranston wrote: |
Uh... My brain is hurting again... The chances of this are... slim?? I mean the natural timing of the thing is more likely isn't it?  |
What's more likely:
1. Someone choosing the smart play as a vig and just not killing someone, while the mafia have something like an 85% chance of *not* targeting the vig.
2. Mafia having ~ 15% chance of blocking the only other killing role night 1, and doing so successfully. |
Ouch brain still hurting...
So then we would have to be looking at a complete freak of timing OR MNO is lying?? I think we need to focus on who MNO's scum buddy is because how are we going to prove he's lying? _________________ Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? |
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MNOWAX
0.999... of a Troll
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 6:41 am Post subject: 301 |
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heres the deal if you believe that I am a cop lamont, then you MUST believe that there is a roleblocker, because i was definitely blocked last night
it isnt all that complicated actually, lamont, i think youre just posting to stay active, while not actually posting anything. SCUM RADAR GOING OFF EVEN MORE!
Confirm Vote: lamont _________________ The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX |
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Lamont_Cranston
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 8:11 am Post subject: 302 |
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Look here MNO, I believe your claim. Its Courk that is bringing up the lack of a roleblocker not me. I'm only asking her to explain her theory. _________________ Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? |
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Courk
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 9:34 am Post subject: 303 |
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I am not trying to say there isn't a roleblocker, I'm just saying the roleblocker didn't necessarily target a killer on night 1.
FOS: Lamont
This feels like you're trying to spin something against me, saying I think there's no roleblocker when I've said no such thing, much like Zag did. |
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Lamont_Cranston
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 10:20 am Post subject: 304 |
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Well, with that out of the way, what is your point? I'm still trying to figure out what you are trying to say...  _________________ Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? |
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Courk
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 11:17 am Post subject: 305 |
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Imagine this is the set-up:
Player A - maf
Player B - maf & roleblocker
Player C - vig/SK
Player D - townie
Player E - townie
Player F - townie
Player G - townie
Player H - townie
Player I - townie
Player J - townie
MNOWAX is saying that since no one extra died on night 1, we know the roleblocker blocked the person with the extra kill.
He's saying that:
A targeted D
B blocked C
C targeted E, but was unsuccessful due to being blocked
What I'm saying is that since a vig, if given the option, would not target anyone night 1, it's also possible that:
A targeted D
B blocked E
C targeted no one
Which means the blocker did NOT necessarily block the person with the extra kill. |
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sAbLLimINal
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 4:48 pm Post subject: 306 |
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| Unless I bring up the mismason theory again and say that there is no vig and the masons recruited wrong. I'm fairly sure there isn't a SK or else this game would be over. |
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MNOWAX
0.999... of a Troll
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 4:51 pm Post subject: 307 |
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ok i gotcha courk
my issue is lamont. has been since this day started. hes scum.
lynch his ass. _________________ The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX |
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Zag
Tired of his old title
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 5:16 pm Post subject: 308 |
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Honestly, I think this whole mismason theory is hogwash. Masons that recruit sound like overkill for a game this small. Also, the mason died on the first night, so he wouldn't have had a chance to recruit, would he?
More and more, I find Courk's insistence on her "vig chose not to kill on night 1" rather suspicious. Not that the theory doesn't seem plausible, it does, it's just that she is pushing it so freaking hard that it seems like she is hiding something. It seems to me that, considering how much thought she has given it, her NOT mentioning the other possible explanations* is suspicious. It seems to me that she is pushing this one so hard for a reason.
And anyway, she's currently voting for me, so I don't see much downside of ticking her off. vote: Courk
* There are two other possible explanations that Courk hasn't bothered to mention:
1. Poisonium died on night 1 at the hands of the SK / vig, and the mafia kill was blocked by a doctor.
2. The SK / vig and the mafia BOTH attacked poor Poisonium, making him twice as dead.
If #1 is true, then the mafia know that we have a doctor, which would explain MNO surviving the night last night. On the other hand, they might just fear that we have a doctor, but not actually know. |
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Zag
Tired of his old title
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 5:32 pm Post subject: 309 |
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| MNOWAX wrote: |
my issue is lamont. has been since this day started. hes scum.
lynch his ass. |
I have to admit that I've been suspicious of him, too, but I can't quite put my finger on why. (Probably because he was such a jerk about accusing me when he first started.)
Anyway, I'd like to understand, MNO, what your reasons are, other than your little trap, which I don't give any credence to at all (since I would have done the same thing he did -- vote for whomever you pointed at). What other evidence do you have? I'm very willing to be convinced, here, but I'm not, yet.
And all this time we have talked about creative, who is really shadowfox, and equally as AWOL / lurking as cm was. I had him on the bottom of my FoS list, but his current lurkiness is moving him up.
Well, that's the whole of my FoS list. I've decided, for better or worse, to believe MNO's cophood, though I'll be laughing almost as much as sAb when we find out he was a naive cop all along, and Loki/sAb is really scum after all, thus vindicating my earlier suspicions.  |
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Zag
Tired of his old title
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 5:33 pm Post subject: 310 |
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Crud, can't edit.
When I said "that's the whole of my FoS list," I meant including the post before that one. |
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sAbLLimINal
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 5:33 pm Post subject: 311 |
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| Quote: |
| Honestly, I think this whole mismason theory is hogwash. Masons that recruit sound like overkill for a game this small. Also, the mason died on the first night, so he wouldn't have had a chance to recruit, would he? |
I do agree recruiting in a game this small shouldn't happen, but it's possible. And you're forgetting that Snicklac16 was a mason, so he could have recruited.
| Quote: |
| More and more, I find Courk's insistence on her "vig chose not to kill on night 1" rather suspicious. Not that the theory doesn't seem plausible, it does, it's just that she is pushing it so freaking hard that it seems like she is hiding something. It seems to me that, considering how much thought she has given it, her NOT mentioning the other possible explanations* is suspicious. It seems to me that she is pushing this one so hard for a reason. |
It's like a golden rule that vigs never, ever shoot night 1. Since this is your first game, I guess you just didn't know that.
| Quote: |
* There are two other possible explanations that Courk hasn't bothered to mention:
1. Poisonium died on night 1 at the hands of the SK / vig, and the mafia kill was blocked by a doctor.
2. The SK / vig and the mafia BOTH attacked poor Poisonium, making him twice as dead. |
These theories can be both true, unless I bring up the mason theory again (sorry lol )
| Quote: |
| If #1 is true, then the mafia know that we have a doctor, which would explain MNO surviving the night last night. On the other hand, they might just fear that we have a doctor, but not actually know. |
I'm not sure about this. If the mason theory is wrong, then the mafia and vig didn't shoot MNO (unless there's an outside party, like a killer), that means nobody targeted MNO last night. Maybe the mafia targeted MNO night 1 and the doc saved him, but I find that really unlikely. |
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sAbLLimINal
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 5:37 pm Post subject: 312 |
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| gah, I'm sorry Zag, i misread your post and repeated exactly what you said. But yeah, I still find that really unlikely. |
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MNOWAX
0.999... of a Troll
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 7:41 pm Post subject: 313 |
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| Lamont_Cranston wrote: |
Gimmee a sec MNO, I'm still thinking here...  |
| Lamont_Cranston wrote: |
| Sorry, I had a really bad day at work yesterday and just woke up. I need to come up with some analysis that applies to the new game situation. Working on it. |
| Lamont_Cranston wrote: |
Well I can say I definitely agree with Courk's analysis of the situation. Sorry, another crappy day at work...
I'm really tired. I need to get off my butt and make a list.  |
| Lamont_Cranston wrote: |
| I'm waiting for Sab to come back. I wanna hear what he has to say... |
Hes talking but not really saying anything. i think he is just stalling and not giving much info while keeping the game active.
the post that he does give some information or anything ...
| Lamont_Cranston wrote: |
Well, excellent analysis post (I mean the fact you posted it far more than the content )
So you're saying that me & Courk are scum buddies? Well I can understand that... I definitely see Courk as pro-town and have supported her as such throughout the game.
The following people are cleared town: Loki & MNO
That leaves the following people as potential scum: Courk, CreativeSab, Zag, Lamont
Now, CreativeSab has done nothing this whole game but lurk except for D1. On D1 he: Voted Wall_E (town) & voted MNO (town). After this he just drops off the radar. Now the question is, who is his scum buddy?
This leaves Courk or Zag...
I'm definitely leaning Zag but I am conflicted because of MNO's read on Zag and his respoonse when "claimed" scum by MNO...
I think a CreativeSab lynch will clear this up...
Vote CreativeSab |
just is nothing more of rehash of what everyone else has said. not very town like. that plus my trap, means i think hes scum. Lynch his ass. _________________ The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX |
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Lamont_Cranston
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 8:08 pm Post subject: 314 |
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| sAbLLimINal wrote: |
| It's like a golden rule that vigs never, ever shoot night 1. Since this is your first game, I guess you just didn't know that. |
This is not necessarily true. Believe it or not, I have met people online that are strong advocates of N1 vigging. I can provide two specific examples of people offsite who have said so with links.
@MNO: Your "trap" was total crap and everyone here can see that. Your the dang town Cop and Zag should of been voted by everyone, except this game has such a huge lurking factor nobody else probably even saw your supposed "trap". 9.9
I've posted my views. I think Creative is the scum buddy of either Courk or Zag. I think he is the safest lynch but one thing is for sure: We must lynch correctly here and NL is not an option. _________________ Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? |
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Lamont_Cranston
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 8:18 pm Post subject: 315 |
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Btw, there is no way that Courk is the correct lynch here. We should focus on who her scum buddy might be. _________________ Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? |
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Zag
Tired of his old title
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 8:26 pm Post subject: 316 |
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| Lamont_Cranston wrote: |
| Btw, there is no way that Courk is the correct lynch here. We should focus on who her scum buddy might be. |
Sorry, why do you say that? With all her obfuscation about the vig/sk and role-blocker, I'm thinking that she is one of those, probably the role-blocker. |
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Courk
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 9:43 pm Post subject: 317 |
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I'm not pressing the it-could-be-a-blocked-townie-with-a-vig-that-chose-not-to-kill thing. Lamont kept not getting it, so I had to keep repeating it so he could understand.
The only point I was trying to get across was that the roleblocker didn't necessarily block the second killer. And that was mostly in response to MNOWAX.
The fact that Lamont is the one who kept making me repeat myself, and that Zag then spun that into me being "insistent" makes me think they're scum buddies. unvote: zag, vote: lamont |
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Zag
Tired of his old title
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Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 10:01 pm Post subject: 318 |
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Baah. This is just a ploy to get some distance between the two of you, trusting that I'd be afraid the be the hammer once again, and hoping that shadowfox will be AWOL long enough that someone else will retract their vote
But screw that -- your ploy doesn't work! This is my chance to redeem myself for the first-day lynching, and be the hero once again! (or else to be the complete goat and hand the win over to the mafia, but I don't think so, anymore).
Vote: Lamont That's 4 |
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Poisonium
annoyed by the old
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Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2009 11:45 pm Post subject: 319 |
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| Zag wrote: |
It seems to me that, considering how much th* There are two other possible explanations that Courk hasn't bothered to mention:
1. Poisonium died on night 1 at the hands of the SK / vig, and the mafia kill was blocked by a doctor.
2. The SK / vig and the mafia BOTH attacked poor Poisonium, making him twice as dead. |
*rises from grave*
*seeks revenge* _________________ I tried apt-get install lifebut it only returned E: Couldn't find package life |
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Undercover Monk
Professor Chaos
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Posted: Fri Jul 03, 2009 1:42 pm Post subject: 320 |
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Day 3
Well the third day of our ordeal started out with a bang as MNOWAX accused Zag of being a rat. But it seemed this was only a trap to draw additional suspects. It seemed to work too as Lamon_Cranston became more aggitated and disoriented. Eventually it was determined that It was best he was killed so we crossed our fingers and strung him. As we chocked him he seemed to lose his grip on reality and began to laugh, a cold chilling laugh. "You mice should have treated me better, for I Sela the Fox gave Cluny his way in soon you will all perish." She laughed harder as we tighntened the noose out of panic and the old gypsy finally died. After examining her room we found plenty of sleeping draughts that we guessed she had used to preven tany heroic action at night. One enemy down, but how many were left. We decided with the poisoner dead it might be best to go to sleep and see what the night brought. As I crawled into bed the vision of poor poisonium came to my eyes but I cleared my mind and went to sleep. THE DEAD SHOULD REMAIN DEAD!
Lamont_Cranston is lynched. He was Sela the Vixen the mafia roleblocker. Please send in all night choices by Tuesday Morning. _________________ The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning |
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