Chocolate! Game over. Town wins!

[Undercover Monk]

[Dragon Phoenix]

After a quick re-read, I am still leaning towards an UM lynch as either mafia or indeed (and maybe even more likely given that he was on the first lynch bandwagon together with a confirmed scum) SK. No vote yet though. More discussion is good.

Lexprod's confirmed ability still leaves me puzzled. It seems very powerful to counterbalance one scum and one SK (or two one man scum groups, whatever you want to call it), in addition to other roles on the town side. On the other hand, two scum and one SK is virtually impossible to balance with any power roles. The SK could also be a vig, but in a small game it is practically impossible to distinguish a SK from a vig, And to Lexprod's ability with the mafia is like I said before cruel modding. Does not exclude it though.

Bottom line: I can't put a reasonably balanced set-up together from the pieces we have so far.
_________________
My photography:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/artrock2006/

[lexprod]

I think two Mafia (one cop-controlling and one day-protector), a vig, a cop, a me (half doc?), and a target-aware would make sense. Though it seems a bit overpowered on the town side, but I have minimal experience with set-ups so I could be way off.

If we -do- have a serial killer, and we're convinced it's UM, than I guess I may be willing to go for his lynch instead. If we hit the vig/SK then no kills tonight, and we get one free cop read that hopefully will be put to good use. Plus by the next day, the cop is likely to reveal what they know in hopes of closing this case.

UM has already implied that he has a one-shot or infinite-shot ability, by not believing my two-shot one.

[quote=milkshake]So I'd vote rm (mafia?) or UM (possible SK.)[/quote]

How could rm be mafia at this point? I thought we all agreed that there's not a scenario where the cop would stay quiet on either not-investigating ralphmerridew. The cop must've investigated him and found him innocent. Any other target or read and the cop would speak up for catching rm as a liar. The only other option is the cop is not allowed to bring up his investigation at all, but talking restrictions seem impossible to force when the cop could just hint their balls off (or ovaries off I suppose.)

I really think the choice is UM or milkshake today, not DP or UM.

Also:

[Undercover Monk]

the way I read it was he can protect you once and then we can try to lynch you again.


But anyway I just had a couple of epiphanies.

concerning ralphmerridew: most definately town. He could be the cop and have been targeted as the kill for the mafia, thus saved by Lexprod. DP is in no way confirmed by rm. Also rm has a very good reason, if he is the cop for keeping that a secret and he is one of 3 of us who have yet to claim.

DP: as he hasn't claimed and most of his efforts have been to lynch me he is a toss-up. simply not enough is known about him right now to get a solid read. I am convinced however that there is only one scum left so I think we should give DP the benifit of the doubt for now.

Lexprod: I still don't like the 2-shot claim but if raekuul hadn't been found out so quickly, we may have needed that ability. I don't know but after thinking about it there is no reason to lynch him unless he is proven to be a liar

milkshake: Is in no way confirmed town. In fact the ability to save someone, possibly a scum buddy, from a lynch seems an incrediably easy way to counter balance the power town we have here. Add to that the bloodthirstyness he showed to me at the beggining of the day and milkshake is looking like a good lynch.


So I think I am in favor of a milkshake lynch. Does anyone see a fault in my logic that I missed. I do think we should try to make a decision by Christmas.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[lexprod]

[lexprod]

PS: I'm not encouraging a lynch wagon on milkshake before he gets another response or two in, he's been MIA the past couple days, but hopefully by the end of the week he'll show his face

[Undercover Monk]

1. I was actually thinking of trying to get you lynched but I have changed my mind based on my milkshake is scum idea. It just seems like a good ability for mafia.

2. My eagerness is not in lynching milkshake by Christmas but to get something done before we get the usual Christmas slump.

But your right we shouldn't do anything until after he responds.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Dragon Phoenix]

Could we get a prod on milkshake, mod?
_________________
My photography:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/artrock2006/

[milkshake]

Sorry for my temporary inactivity, I was visiting family. But don't worry I'm here.

I don't have all the answers. But I do have alot of answers. I'm nearly certain that UM must be either the SK or an unidentintified scum- although the latter case would require the kill ability to be tagged on to unclaimed DP-cop or partial-claimed (safe claimed?) rm-"confirmed."

rm could also be the cop and be sneakily but pro-townily confirming himself. I don't think he'd do this but it's possible. In that case, DP would be certain-scum, but UM would still be SK. I don't want to lynch DP because I think he's pro-town cop. Furthermore, with an extra night's worth of information from him/whomever else, we should be able to find the last scum (assuming (and I believe this is the case) that there is only one) via process of elimination if nothing else.

vote: undercover monk

The doubt cast on lexprod is, in my opinion, unfounded. Look at all the contortions there would have to be for him to be scum, the mafia would have had to target lexprod and the mannequin would have to be bonus flavor, and lexprod would most likely have to be able to stop a non-mafia kill, considering there was only one kill last night. (Regarding the possibility of lynching him however, I essentially communicated the wording of my PM so your guess is as good as mine as to whether he would be lynchable, but I'd say no based on "the lynching vote will not count" (not a direct quote, obviously!))

[lexprod]

votecount please, also is anyone still voting me or rm? I couldn't find them for the last votecount.....
_________________
I'll have a P please...

[Zag]

lexprod presses the "Official Vote Count" button, and a buzzer is heard. The display reads "Vote Count not yet reset."

[lexprod]

O_o I think I broke it.

Well at my last count:

UM -> lex (have you unvoted this yet?? why not?)
lex -> milk
milk -> UM

We make a nice mexican standoff...

DP -> nothing
ralphmerridew -> DP

As much as UM is rising in my scumdar, I don't want to switch to him simply because I am hearing more of him than milkshake who was out for a while. Right now my shortlist is 1. milk and 2. UM.
_________________
I'll have a P please...

[milkshake]

Let me just point out that even disregarding the fact that my "scum buddy" died despite my being a doc/lynchprotector, my role really wouldn't make sense on scum. Also, UM hasn't even claimed yet, and it seems to me that if he was the vig, he would just go ahead and claim vig already considering that everyone else is out in the open and all?

Consider your own roles, are they simple power roles? It seems that perhaps UM has some abilities that wouldn't make sense on town, which make him hesitant to claim. With practically the whole town out in the open, I'm not sure it's really pro-town anymore not to participate in this "mass claim" thing we have going on. I'm open to being contradicted here, but I'm fairly certain that at this point the bad connotations of claiming don't apply.

[lexprod]

[milkshake]

[lexprod]

[Undercover Monk]

First off I guess I liked having my vote where it was. lol. Unvote anyway back to business.

[milkshake]

[lexprod]

[Undercover Monk]

[quote="milkshake"]
We're 98% certain DP has a cop role, which really doesn't make sense on scum.

[Undercover Monk]

Oh and to Lexprod:

opps didn't think about rm's ability. However I would be very surprised if that were all his abilities. He may have been told he was targeted by someone elses role. The point was that less than half of the town had COMPLETELY claimed. Not even close to the tell-all mass claiming that milkshake claimed was happening.

Also hopefully he is still on and we can get an almost real-time discussion going.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[lexprod]

Did a re-read of most of this, and just thought this theory should be brought up (if it hasn't before, I think it was once). rm could be just a godfather, who told raekuul to aim the cop at him to be cop-confirmed-town. I need to stop being so narrow-focused. I'm just worried that between me, UM, and milkshake tearing each other apart either DP or rm is just laughing their ass off and waiting for night to fall.
_________________
I'll have a P please...

[ralphmerridew]

Lexprod: While I can't prove that your scenario is false, it does seriously nerf the cop. He'll be useless while the mole lives (who could keep redirecting his investigation to the same innocent) and useless after the mole lives (he can't detect the godfather).

Also, I'm pretty sure I was the first person to make any sort of claim.

[milkshake]

[Dragon Phoenix]

[lexprod]

[milkshake]

Maybe we should lynch DP if he wasn't the cop. (We do know he's the cop right? Yeah we do. Well, unless UM was being sneaky with the not-cop claim, which, hmm...)

[ralphmerridew]

We have:
- MNOWAX, Tough guy (can survive one night kill)
- lexprod, claimed Marionette Maker (claims 2-shot stop mafia kill), existence of marionettes is proven
- milkshake, claimed Secret Service (claims lynch-protect and nightkill-protect), lynchstop ability is proven

That strikes me as too much night protection ability. Personally, I think that milkshake is more suspicious.

[lexprod]

[Undercover Monk]

actually I have been attacked by DP for most of the day too. Also I think I have at one time had my vote one everyone except myself. But thats kinda par for the course for me. As far as actions milkshake immidiately tried to get me lynched on the shaky grounds of my day 1 hammer. That along with the claim evidence paints a pretty grim picture. Hopefully everyone will be around this week so we won't have to pause for Christmas.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Dragon Phoenix]

[lexprod]

[Undercover Monk]

[Dragon Phoenix]

[lexprod]

Any last words milkshake?
_________________
I'll have a P please...

[ralphmerridew]

Any last words before I drop the hammer?

[Undercover Monk]

Merry Christmas is milkshake dead yet?
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[milkshake]

I really don't understand why you guys would want to lynch me (semi-confirmed) over someone not confirmed (perhaps UM).

Also, confirming me via killing me really wouldn't gain you anything... it's even concievable the mafia might win this night (although I think/hope that's not the case). If you do kill me, though, you should be able to see pretty clearly who the last scum is (big money on UM here), so that's good at least.

[ralphmerridew]

Because a guaranteed lynchstop ability seems a reasonable opponent to a guaranteed mafiakillstop ability.

Hammer. Vote: milkshake

[Zag]

Well, that's the game. Victory for the town! Yay town!!

I am so surprised that after a brilliant move, milkshake just let the game slip through his fingers. My comments below of how he could have won the game, IMHO, in spite of his mafia partner basically committing suicide.

As is tradition in mafialand, a man is hanged before his body is searched. When milkshake stops twitching, his body is searched and you find an device on his body that looks a little like a remote control for a television, except that it has much the same interface as the voting machine. Playing with it a bit, you realize that it enables the user to make or change his vote without the normal mafialand tradition of declaring your vote publicly.

Here are all the roles:

ralphmerridew - ADHD Cop
MNOWAX - Tough Guy
raekuul - Corrupt Cop
milkshake - Mafia Boss, Silent Voter
Undercover Monk - Investigative Vigilante
lexprod - Mannequin maker
Dragon Phoenix - Ballot stuffer

ralphmerridew is the only one who didn't know his role up front, he was told just that he is a normal cop. The first night, he was forced to investigate himself, a rather unlucky choice for him. By the way, if you review all the things he said, everything he said was technically true, though he clearly led you intentionally to draw other conclusions. (Once raekuul, his handler, was killed, he would have had 50% chance of investigating whom he wanted, and 50% chance of a random choice amongst the uninvestigated so far, including the one he wanted.)

This was actually one of my balancing roles. If the first night went very badly for town, then the investigation would have revealed everything about the person, including role. If the town managed to lynch or night-kill a mafia, then the investigation would reveal only mafia / town affiliation. (I had planned this flexibility in the role definition up front.)

UM's role, investigative vigilante, meant that in a night in which a townie was lynched, the blood lust would be on him and he must kill. In nights of a mafia lynch or no lynch, he does not have any night action. When he has the blood lust, he gets to choose two people. If one of them is mafia and the other not, the mafia is killed. If both are the same, one is killed at random. Note that if a townie his killed, he knows the other he chose was townie. But if a mafia is killed, he doesn't know anything about the other one.

This was my big balancing role, and it worked out quite well in my paper games. However, UM's choices for the first night were raekuul and milkshake, so I suspected right away how the game would end. (Though milkshake still had a chance to win, I think.)

lexprod role, mannequin maker, was exactly what he claimed. He had a two-time ability to make a mannequin which was imbued with a magical ability that the mafia would see it as their target and try to kill it. Then they would be out of time that night to make the kill they wanted. He didn't get to know the killer, nor the killer's intended target.

Dragon Phoenix had, as it turned out, the weakest role: Ballot stuffer (Sorry, DP), which let him vote twice. The default was that the two votes were the same, though he could use a PM to make his second vote different from his public one (or make it a non-vote or even an abstain, which changes the majority needed to kill). It had turned out more significant in my paper games, because those each had times with an even number of players, which makes the role more powerful. In fact, in the closest of my paper games, it came down to the ballot stuffer and the corrupt cop at the end. When they voted and the corrupt cop saw that he had lost 2-to-1, he willingly walked to the gallows.

One qualifier with this role and milkshake's was that official vote counts could only be called for after at least three public vote changes (including at least two different people). I had talked about the official vote count clock without describing it. If anyone had asked, I would have described it as being somewhat like an hour hand on a clock, where you don't really see it move but you sometimes observe that it is different from how you saw it before, and you've figured out that it is clearly non-linear, somehow, but it would be up to players to figure out exactly what the conditions are to invoke it again.

milkshake's role, silent voter, was that he can make or change his vote via PM. The whole point of this was the ability to hammer in private. Why he foolishly drew suspicion to himself by talking about bandwagons I don't understand, though he did manage to mitigate that later. (His role as mafia boss was just that he was the official word on night kills, and he was required to tell me killee, killer, and method. This was to support MNOWAX's ability, in which he gets to know the person who attempted to kill him at night. Other mafia players were required to carry out his orders in this regard.)

His later claim was, IMHO, brilliant, because he had unvoted from lexprod secretly after voting for him publicly. If he had then claimed that his ability was a semi-investigative lynch-stopping, such that his own vote would be negated -- once per day -- only if the votee was town, that would have been totally believable, completely supported by the evidence, and turned the lynch mob immediately on UM. Why he then went into claiming night-time powers, as well, completely baffles me.

Note that if UM were lynched, milkshake would survive the night (and there would be no night killings at all, thanks to lexprod). Probably DP would be the next one lynched, because he had never claimed anything (though he would have the ability to make a successful claim if he figured out the workings of the official vote count clock). At that point, it would have been milk, rm, and lexprod, and he would have (actually his first) night-kill coming.

In any case, DP would not be able to make a successful claim, because he would have to vote to do it. As soon as he did, milk could silently hammer whomever he voted for. It would be pretty funny to have a person lynched with only a single public vote on him! (DP x2 and milk's silent vote makes a clear majority of 3 of 5 votes.)