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sAbLLimINal
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2010 8:04 pm Post subject: 161 |
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oops, haven't checked this in a while, but my thoughts haven't changed. Either a raekuul or JDTAY lynch is fine with me.
This is what's concerning me: there are 12 people playing. My guess is that there are 3 people who are scum. If we don't reach the lynch by the deadline, then it only takes 4 votes to lynch, which favors heavily on scum. If there's a no lynch, then that also favors scum. The only thing that doesn't favor scum is if we lynch someone before the deadline. So I suggest that anyone who isn't voting for scum should vote for one of them. Any vote that is not on one of these two guys is useless at this point, and not helping the town at all. |
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Zag
Unintentionally offensive old coot
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Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2010 8:39 pm Post subject: 162 |
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| Zag wrote: |
| Courk wrote: |
| I'm still good with my JDTAY vote as I don't believe his claim at all. |
A lot of people are saying that, but I don't really see why. It seems to me to be reasonable and possible. I guess the most scary thing about the claim is that it would be an appropriate ability for a mafia, too; perhaps even more so. But I don't believe that he would claim it the way he did if he were mafia -- he would claim to know how it applies to the mafia night kill.
I'm honestly looking for feedback. Could someone who finds the claim suspicious tell me why you think so? |
No one ever answered this question of mine, so I'm repeating it on the new page. I AM willing to be convinced, but right now I still have him below average on my suspicion list.
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I also have raekuul slightly below average on my suspicion list (for reasons I've already declared), so I'm not going to vote for him at this time. But you can take heart that he already has 5, so he'll swing if we reach the deadline. (I am wondering why you didn't also realize this and just let it stand, whether you are town and really believe what you say, or you are mafia, either way I don't see why you bothered.) |
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Quailman
His Postmajesty
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Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2010 8:51 pm Post subject: 163 |
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FOS: sAbLLimINal
I have been thinking that raekuul is likely to be scum and JDTAY is likely not to be. sAbLLimINal's post somehow reeks of scumminess. If it only takes four votes to lynch at the deadline, how could that favor the scum? raekuul has 4 and JDTAY 3. The only way to avoid lynching one of them with a deadline lynch would be for the three (which sAbLLimINal presumes there are) scum to suddenly switch their votes to someone who doesn't already have 3 or 4 vote. That would look really scummy, so it's not very likely.
| sAbLLimINal wrote: |
| So I suggest that anyone who isn't voting for scum should vote for one of them. |
I thought I was voting for scum. Now I'm not so sure. If anyone out there is not currently voting for scum please speak up. It would help me make up my mind who to vote for.
I was sort of guessing there might be four scum in the game - three maf and a SK, but it's been a while since I've played, so what do I know?
The more I think about it, unvote: raekuul; vote: sAbLLimINal
I voted for him to begin with. I should have left it there. I should note that part of this is based on Zag's long post analyzing the votes of each person. sAbLLimINal first voted Poisonium and they both have voted JDTAY and raekuul since then, so FOS: Poisonium too. It's a common mafia tactic to randomly vote for your comrades on Day 1 to distance them from you for later. |
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Quailman
His Postmajesty
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Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2010 8:54 pm Post subject: 164 |
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bah! It was posted 12 minutes before mine, but I didn't see Zag's post before I started typing.
I'd like that question answered also. I don't mean to insult him, but that claim seems to well-thought out to be made up. |
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Undercover Monk
Professor Chaos
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Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2010 10:37 pm Post subject: 165 |
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IDK I prefer to vote on actions then metagaming and role claims, especially on Day one where claims arent worth a grain of salt. JDTY's defence of Raekuul, his randomn unpressured (as I call) claim, and his most recent no lynch vote all just scream scum to me. at the very least he is a distraction that I will be happy to see swing. _________________ The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning |
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The Great Crep'er
2% Spambot
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Posted: Tue Feb 02, 2010 9:37 pm Post subject: 166 |
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| Approximately five hours and 23 minutes from the lynch, votecount to come soon. |
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The Great Crep'er
2% Spambot
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Posted: Tue Feb 02, 2010 9:43 pm Post subject: 167 |
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AmbVote Count Numbah Phive
raekuul: (4) ralphmerridew, sAbLLImiNal, Amb, Poisonium
JDTAY: (3) Undercover Monk, Courk, raekuul
Amb: (1) MNOWAX
MNOWAX: (2) Zag, milkshake
sAbLLimINal: (1) Quailman
No Lynch: (1) JDTAY |
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raekuul
Lives under a bridge & tells stories.
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Posted: Tue Feb 02, 2010 9:49 pm Post subject: 168 |
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What will it take for me to convince at least one of you four voting for me, in the next three hours, that I am not amb mafia?
(The reason that I give it three hours is because I know a lost cause when I see one) |
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raekuul
Lives under a bridge & tells stories.
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Posted: Tue Feb 02, 2010 9:51 pm Post subject: 169 |
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(I should have thought of this earlier)
I strongly suspect that there is an investigator of some sort, so if there is still any reason to suspect JDTAY after today, I ask that you investigate him. |
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Amb
Amb the Hitched.
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Posted: Tue Feb 02, 2010 9:55 pm Post subject: 170 |
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I'm going to take a risk.
Unvote; Vote JDTAY |
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JDTAY
obseletes now
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Posted: Wed Feb 03, 2010 2:57 am Post subject: 171 |
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unvote: no lynch
vote: raekuul _________________ Prohibit nothing. Disclose everything. |
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The Great Crep'er
2% Spambot
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Posted: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:09 am Post subject: 172 |
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| It is now twilight, not the one with the vambpires. Please cease all posting until the next day round. |
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The Great Crep'er
2% Spambot
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Posted: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:38 am Post subject: 173 |
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Day One:
The little town of Ambs had gathered around town square, ready to hang someone high from the gamballows. Foreign non-Amb-like people had invaded the town secretly and were leaving papers around that revealed plans to mow down each and every last Amb and put a mini-mall in their place. Ooh, mini-mall, are they putting up an ambercrombie? Wait, that's not the point! Focus! Evil lives within the heart of this humble town, no blood of Amb must be spilled. But, some blood of Amb must be spilled in order to keep all of the blood from...spilling. Eh?
Oh, wait, what's this? Some commotion is starting.
"It's Amb." says Amb.
"No, it's Amb!" says Amb.
"Are you guys kidding? It's so obviously Amb!" says Amb.
Finally Amb grabs Amb by the neck, hands him to Amb, and Amb hoists Amb up onto the gamballows and from the noose they lynch him.
In spite of the state of his stiff, blue, corpse they make out the Amb's identity as...
JDTAY Amb, "Amb the wagon driver", Vanilla Amb Townie.
As an Amb Vanilla Townie he had the power to vote during day rounds and sleep during night rounds.
Power Ambs, please send your night choices by Feb. 7th, 2010 10:00 PM. Please PM the mod to make him aware if you are not able to meet the deadline. |
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The Great Crep'er
2% Spambot
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Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 3:42 am Post subject: 174 |
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Night One:
As the little Ambs rested their heads to sleep they sleepily said good night to one another and rambled on into a deep snooze. A little stumbling about and a few voices are heard in the dark of the night.
"Shh, shh. Just kill Amb."
"Wait, who?"
"AMB!"
"Which one?"
"The guy who looks like Amb."
"They all look like Amb."
"Not that one!" The first voice pointed like a finger...somehow to some innocent figure snoozing about. A few stumblings later, a knife's pulled out. a throat is slit, and boom one more sacrificial Amb is found to progress the game further. Ah what a relatively short life he lived. He was going to type up so many more lowercase posts with spelling errors and was in his prime running a puzzle competition for all the GLers in the land. Yes, you guessed it...
MNOWAX Amb, 'The Ambassador', Masonry, has been dealt a deadly blow. As an Ambassador, he could recruit other 'Amb'assadors which he could PM with during the night. He will be missed by Amb and all those who have a likeness to him, the others...eh, not so much.
It is now Day 2 my Ambs, with 10 still Ambing it will take 6 to lynch. (Only 3 at deadline.)
There goes the all capitals name crowd.  |
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Zag
Unintentionally offensive old coot
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Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 1:03 pm Post subject: 175 |
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Well, I feel pretty foolish. Of the two conclusions I made, one was wrong (that MNO was scum) and the other was right but for the wrong reason (that JDT was town, because I believed his claim).
Not that it will stop me from trying again.
Why would the scum kill MNO? If they hadn't, I probably would have pushed forward my suspicion of him and very likely gotten him lynched next day. The only one I can see with an actual motive is Amb, since MNO was voting for him. Amb also brought down the (mini-)hammer on JDT -- that is, his vote last minute switch from raekuul to JDT meant that JDT and not raekuul swung. If they (Amb and raekuul) were scum buddies, it certainly makes sense.
I'm eager for other people's thoughts. Until then, ...
vote: Amb (that is, the most Ambish Amb) |
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raekuul
Lives under a bridge & tells stories.
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Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 4:39 pm Post subject: 176 |
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...well, there goes my hare-brained theory about MNOWAX being a scum.
But it does seem strange. Ambs, especially Amb, what are your thoughts? |
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Quailman
His Postmajesty
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Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 5:39 pm Post subject: 177 |
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I think it's extremely naive to tag amb with a motive to night-kill MNOWAX just because MNOWAX was voting for him. It's much more likely that the Mafia would kill MNOWAX and then one of their members would come out and say "MNOWAX is dead. It must be revenge for a vote. Let's lynch the guy who was voting for him."
vote: ZAG
I think he was too opinionated all day yesterday, even though he distanced himself from the JDTAY lynch. Now his accusation of amb with that flimsy reasoning is too much - not that I have a stroing feeling either way about amb's innocence.
BTW, I didn't see a final vote count. I thought reakuul was ahead at the end. |
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Zag
Unintentionally offensive old coot
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Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 7:13 pm Post subject: 178 |
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Naive, I'll accept that -- this is only my second Mafia game in which I am town, and I was lynched the first day in the other one -- but naive is all that it is.
Anyway, raekuul and JDTAY were tied at 4 each when the deadline hit. Note Amb's vote on JDTAY was an unvote from raekuul. |
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The Great Crep'er
2% Spambot
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Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 7:51 pm Post subject: 179 |
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| Quailman wrote: |
BTW, I didn't see a final vote count. I thought reakuul was ahead at the end. |
Sorry, I didn't think two votes since my last votecount was too hard to count. Amb switched putting JDTAY at the lead before JD could put a vote on rae, making him fall under the 'first come, first serve' policy. |
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Quailman
His Postmajesty
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Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 8:41 pm Post subject: 180 |
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| Thanks. I see it now. It was the unvote that confused my simple (samble?) mind. |
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Courk
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 10:47 pm Post subject: 181 |
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| I was so sure JDTAY was scum, I didn't even think ahead to today. I'll need to think about who is suspicious. |
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MNOWAX
0.999... of a Troll
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Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2010 1:50 am Post subject: 182 |
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i get a death post, right?
OH WOE IS ME!! IALAS IM DEAD!!!!
good luck town! _________________ The Man The Myth The Legend
MNOWAX |
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milkshake
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2010 2:03 am Post subject: 183 |
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Zag: Gee, why would the scum ever pick MNOWAX? I do not know. How smart they must must be. I will proceed to vote for the person who MNOWAX was suspecting.
^This is Zag's ego betraying him, among other things.
In all seriousness, isn't it a normal scum strategy to kill who you were suspecting in order to give you a "clean slate" for the next day. (For those of you keeping track, yes I suspected MNOWAX too, so of course I am not claiming this theory has anywhere near 100% accuracy here!) |
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Undercover Monk
Professor Chaos
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Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2010 5:03 am Post subject: 184 |
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I also found Zags accusations troubling not vote-worthy yet. The problem is like Courk I was sure JDTY was scum. I will have to review MNOWAX and Zags day 1 votes and what-not. however we have so much to work with we should be able to make an informed decision. _________________ The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning |
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Courk
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2010 10:22 am Post subject: 185 |
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| It may take me the better part of the day to dig myself out of the snowstorm, apologies if I don't get to reviewing by tonight. |
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ralphmerridew
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2010 7:44 pm Post subject: 186 |
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| raekuul is still triggering my scum-o-meter, and if he's guilty, then I'm half suspicious of amb; his last minute vote change got JDTAY lynched instead of raekuul. |
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sAbLLimINal
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2010 9:09 pm Post subject: 187 |
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| Quailman wrote: |
| If it only takes four votes to lynch at the deadline, how could that favor the scum? |
| TGC wrote: |
| In the endgame (six players or less) only lynches with a regular majority will occur. |
This practically states that there are either A) 3 mafia and no serial killer or B) 2 mafia and a serial killer. If option A is true, than at deadline the mafia would have 75% of the votes to lynch. And if option B is true, than its 50% of the votes. That's significantly different than if the deadline wasn't placed.
| Quailman wrote: |
| The only way to avoid lynching one of them with a deadline lynch would be for the three (which sAbLLimINal presumes there are) scum to suddenly switch their votes to someone who doesn't already have 3 or 4 vote. |
Do you see anyone recently that switched their vote to lynch someone?
Although, I do agree with you about Zag. I don't like his "why would they ever kill MNOWAX?" statement. But I want to hear Amb's reasoning why he voted to lynch JDTAY. |
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Zag
Unintentionally offensive old coot
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Posted: Sun Feb 07, 2010 8:25 am Post subject: 188 |
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| sAbLLimINal wrote: |
| Although, I do agree with you about Zag. I don't like his "why would they ever kill MNOWAX?" statement. |
Really? It was meant with all sincerity. My point was this: Suppose we had come back after you all have lynched JDTAY when I argued against it, and the scum had killed someone else who did not seem too scummy -- say, you, sAB -- Then I would have been arguing that I was right all along, and you people should have listened to me.
I think MNO's voting record was suspicious, and when you come right down to it, that's the only thing that is real. Is realistic to think that, with my vindication of my argument for JDTAY, I would have gotten you to listen to me about MNO. Now, of course, I was wrong there, but that's the whole point. The scum could have let me argue the case, let themselves be "persuaded," and hope a couple more come along. I'd be doing their job for them, and I probably would have done it reasonably well. All they had to do was let him stay alive with his suspicious voting record following him and I would foolishly do the rest. |
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raekuul
Lives under a bridge & tells stories.
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Posted: Sun Feb 07, 2010 2:04 pm Post subject: 189 |
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Unless the mafia figured that you would be more useful alive than dead, at least for now. Of course, why would they think that?
Okay, so I've been wrong twice with my suspicions. But I think ralphmerridew is right about Amb's last-minute vote switch.
Amb, you said you were going to take a risk. Was the risk the risk that I was right about JDTAY (which I was not), or was the risk the risk that I was Amb Mafia (which I am not)? |
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Amb
Amb the Hitched.
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Posted: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:45 pm Post subject: 190 |
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I didnt have a strong feeling over Raekuul anymore. I switched votes to make sure he didnt get deadline lynched.
In the meanwhile Vote Zag |
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The Great Crep'er
2% Spambot
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Posted: Mon Feb 08, 2010 10:05 pm Post subject: 191 |
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AmbVote Count Numbah Phive (Updated):
Zag: (2) Amb, Quailman
Amb: (1) Zag |
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raekuul
Lives under a bridge & tells stories.
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Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2010 3:34 pm Post subject: 192 |
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What is with the sudden lack of activity?
In any case, while Amb's switch towards the end does strike me as odd, I find it interesting that Zag jumped to the conclusions that he did. I don't know for certain, but something tells me that Zag knows more about why MNOWAX was killed than he should. |
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Poisonium
annoyed by the old
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Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2010 9:24 pm Post subject: 193 |
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I'd like to say something, but I really can't think of anything.
Well, apart from what in god's name was JDTAY doing. I'd also have asked that question if he turned out to be scum though. _________________ I tried apt-get install lifebut it only returned E: Couldn't find package life |
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The Great Crep'er
2% Spambot
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Posted: Wed Feb 10, 2010 4:27 pm Post subject: 194 |
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| Lack of activity is not so good, Mod will introduce his friends 'Massprod Amb' and 'Deadline Amb' if he has to. |
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ralphmerridew
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Wed Feb 10, 2010 7:55 pm Post subject: 195 |
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| JDTAY was doing what is known as "being JDTAY". In Casino Mafia, way back when, on day 1, he was pro-town and blew the identity of the cop. (Or would have, if the mafia were paying attention.) |
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raekuul
Lives under a bridge & tells stories.
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Posted: Wed Feb 10, 2010 8:31 pm Post subject: 196 |
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| How did he find out who the cop was? |
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Zag
Unintentionally offensive old coot
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Posted: Wed Feb 10, 2010 9:32 pm Post subject: 197 |
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I suspect that people were immediately suspicious of raekuul claiming to be vanilla townie. He realized that claiming so himself would just get him lynched, so he made up something that he thought was more believable than the actual truth.
I'd like everyone to take another look at Amb's record, including his last minute switch to hammer JDTAY. I also suspect Q for suspecting me, but that's just paranoia, I think. |
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Poisonium
annoyed by the old
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Posted: Wed Feb 10, 2010 11:51 pm Post subject: 198 |
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| Zag wrote: |
| I suspect that people were immediately suspicious of raekuul claiming to be vanilla townie. He realized that claiming so himself would just get him lynched, so he made up something that he thought was more believable than the actual truth. |
I'm about 80% certain that Raekuul's claim is fake. I'm wondering what the truth is, now. _________________ I tried apt-get install lifebut it only returned E: Couldn't find package life |
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ralphmerridew
Daedalian Member
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Posted: Thu Feb 11, 2010 12:43 am Post subject: 199 |
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JDTAY had an investigative ability himself. Each night he could rob one person, getting all his/her money and learning his/her ability.
Day one, he made a statement along the lines that "IS would be getting information today". At the time, I misread it as "I'll be getting information about IS today." and I guess the scum made a similar mistake or just overlooked it. |
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raekuul
Lives under a bridge & tells stories.
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Posted: Thu Feb 11, 2010 12:59 am Post subject: 200 |
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Ah. Do you still have a link to Casino Mafia? I'd like to read over it for the laughs and whatnot.
And why would I claim something strange like cop or mafia or something like that when I'm telling the truth?
I've said it before and I'll say it again. I am not amb mafia, I amb a townie of the vanilla flavoring. Although I understand not believing the claim, especially with the stupidity I had in... was it Chocolate Mafia? It was one of the recent games. |
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