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The Resistance : Spies win 3-1
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MatthewV
Daedalian Member :_



PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 9:54 pm    Post subject: 241 Reply with quote

It might also work if one of the spies was actually a double agent Felicitous
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Chaz
Vote: Zag



PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 10:03 pm    Post subject: 242 Reply with quote

I don't think it's biased towards the spies. I just think we got a bit unlucky with round one (though Monk's shot in the dark could have gone either way really.)

If I were forced to choose right now, I would say:
Undercover Monk, Wordcross, Chaz, ralphmerridew, and Poisonium.

MattV and Zag were just too eager to start a new game. bgg's invisible posts make me not trust him.

As for Sentran... I don't know. He just seems scummy to me.
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Chaz
Vote: Zag



PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 10:05 pm    Post subject: 243 Reply with quote

Oh. And I would definitely play another round. This was fun. =D
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wordcross

<memstat>



PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 10:36 pm    Post subject: 244 Reply with quote

I'm willing to go with the current group. I don't think MattV is actually guilty of anything other than being too abrasive. My only question is on Undercover Monk, but I'm just as suspicious of the remaining players, so might as well. Once rm makes it official, I'd vote yes as he listed it.
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wordcross

<memstat>



PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 10:40 pm    Post subject: 245 Reply with quote

I would also play another game.

Dethy, I'm assuming that your gaming group is in person. That makes things a lot different. The long-form nature and anonymous face of a message board game change the dynamic.
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Zag
Tired of his old title



PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 10:53 pm    Post subject: 246 Reply with quote

Chaz wrote:
I just think we got a bit unlucky with round one (though Monk's shot in the dark could have gone either way really.)

This demonstrates a lack of understanding of odds.

There are 9 players, 3 of which are spies. A town player chooses three others at random. What are the chances that he has chosen all three spies?

Answer: 3/8 * 2/7 * 1/6 = 1/56 So, 1/56 of the time, he'll get all three spies, and they STILL might foil his strategy if they are each clever enough (i.e. know enough game theory) to randomize their votes such that they each have 1/3 chance of voting fail. Note that it isn't really a hardship to them if they happen all to vote pass, because the town will NEVER figure it out.

Conclusion: Monk's shot in the dark was a move that only a spy would make. No serious townie would have thought it was a good idea. You supporting it puts you in question.
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Undercover Monk
Professor Chaos



PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:25 pm    Post subject: 247 Reply with quote

Or a rebel playing a game for the first time did something stupid that is then being used by the true spies to instill suspicion in an innocent.

Looking at the probability it was dumb but from my perspective I knew who I was and wanted more info on the other players.
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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine



PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:32 pm    Post subject: 248 Reply with quote

Undercover Monk wrote:
Looking at the probability it was dumb but from my perspective I knew who I was and wanted more info on the other players.

Looking at it that way, it sort of made sense. 20/20 hindsight...

Since I'm next up for the chopping block, I propose a team creation method that will take more time, but allow everyone to share their opinions. I propose that everyone rank all other players in terms of least to most suspicious. That way, I can base a team on who is less suspected overall, prior to voting on the team.
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bgg1996
BeeGees are awesome!



PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 12:13 am    Post subject: 249 Reply with quote

1. Poisonium. He is a guaranteed spy, that is, if Chaz is innocent.
2. Zag. He is one of the three that voted yes to the last team, and those three people would make perfect sense as a spy team.
3. Sentran. Sentran was also one of the three. Seems only slightly less evil than Zag.

Those are my top three spy picks. I could be wrong on one, but I doubt it.
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Chaz
Vote: Zag



PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 1:17 am    Post subject: 250 Reply with quote

My money is on Zag, MattV, and Sentran.
bgg only *just* falls shy of being on this list.

Zag wrote:
Conclusion: Monk's shot in the dark was a move that only a spy would make. No serious townie would have thought it was a good idea. You supporting it puts you in question.

So, if Monk's not a spy, then you will stand all PWN'd? Razz

The thing that makes me the most suspicious of you, Zag, is that you understand why Monk's proposal was a bad idea for town, but you voted yes anyway.

I can buy that Monk might have made an ignorant choice (especially if he had deluded himself into thinking that he was choosing all scum.) I can't buy that you would have made a consciously "bad idea" choice. The only way you would have said yes is if you're a spy. If you're not, then I'll stand all PWN'd. Razz
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Chaz
Vote: Zag



PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 1:18 am    Post subject: 251 Reply with quote

For the record when I use the words "ignorant" and "deluded", I'm not looking down on Monk. I mean ignorant in a "we don't know what we're doing" kind of way. I mean "deluded' in a way that I usually play most of my VSGs.
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bgg1996
BeeGees are awesome!



PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 1:38 am    Post subject: 252 Reply with quote

Chaz wrote:
My money is on Zag, MattV, and Sentran.
bgg only *just* falls shy of being on this list.

Zag wrote:
Conclusion: Monk's shot in the dark was a move that only a spy would make. No serious townie would have thought it was a good idea. You supporting it puts you in question.

So, if Monk's not a spy, then you will stand all PWN'd? Razz

The thing that makes me the most suspicious of you, Zag, is that you understand why Monk's proposal was a bad idea for town, but you voted yes anyway.

I can buy that Monk might have made an ignorant choice (especially if he had deluded himself into thinking that he was choosing all scum.) I can't buy that you would have made a consciously "bad idea" choice. The only way you would have said yes is if you're a spy. If you're not, then I'll stand all PWN'd. Razz


Mind picking one that was actually possible? Who would fail day one if that was the team?
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ralphmerridew
Daedalian Member



PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 1:39 am    Post subject: 253 Reply with quote

If UM's initial play didn't have to get all three spies. If it had ID'd two spies, it would have been worth it. (Luck would have put two or three spies on the list with probability 16/56 = 2/7.)

It was flawed even considering that. The spies can eliminate the risk of collision fairly easily if they follow the rule that only the first spy listed should even consider failing (with the exception of round 4).

I'm not willing to swap Pois onto the team. His vote for Zag's team made him too suspicious in my mind.

team is rm, Chaz, wx, UM, MV.

(least suspicious) rm, Chaz, wx, UM, MV, bgg, Sentran, Pois, Zag (most suspicious)
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Zag
Tired of his old title



PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 1:43 am    Post subject: 254 Reply with quote

Chaz wrote:
The thing that makes me the most suspicious of you, Zag, is that you understand why Monk's proposal was a bad idea for town, but you voted yes anyway.

An excellent point. From my point of view (at the time), a random three was just a random three, and I didn't have any reason to judge that one better or worse than any other. I remember at the time thinking it was a little odd for someone not to pick himself, but I didn't think it through. It wasn't until later that I thought to consider it from the point of view of the person picking the team, and realized that it was more odd than I originally thought.
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Zag
Tired of his old title



PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 1:45 am    Post subject: 255 Reply with quote

I'll go through with the formality of voting no, even though I know that the spies will all vote yes, plus you've got a deluded few who will join you. Then the game will be over and we can try another.
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wordcross

<memstat>



PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 2:18 am    Post subject: 256 Reply with quote

I think the team's about as solid as I can imagine any would be. I'm not certain we're keeping the spies out, but any substitutions are either the same or worse.

Vote: yes

If we have less than 2 spies on the team (very likely, imo), then we will have a 100% pass tonight. no reason for a single spy to vote fail when it will do no good and give us info on the makeup of the team. We either lose, or we're back to the same group and arguments for tomorrow. Sounds pretty hopeless when you put it that way Dispirited
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bgg1996
BeeGees are awesome!



PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 2:37 am    Post subject: 257 Reply with quote

Voted yes.
There's no way I could be wrong on two of them.
However, I do think one of them might be spies. The game isn't won yet.

If any, which do you think could possibly be a spy?
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Chaz
Vote: Zag



PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 4:21 am    Post subject: 258 Reply with quote

bgg1996 wrote:
Mind picking one that was actually possible? Who would fail day one if that was the team?

HA! Good point!
That puts you ahead of Sentran, and right next to Zag.

I'm still not sold on MattV's innocence, but I got a package in the mail from him today, so I'll extend him some more trust than I normally would. =D
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mv*
Guest



PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 4:33 am    Post subject: 259 Reply with quote

Chaz wrote:
I'm still not sold on MattV's innocence, but I got a package in the mail from him today, so I'll extend him some more trust than I normally would. =D


Did I really forget to send the $20 bill? Felicitous
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Chaz
Vote: Zag



PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 4:40 am    Post subject: 260 Reply with quote

I haven't got the package yet; it's at my parent's house. I'm super excited, but it was a blizzard in Utah tonight. I will post pics as soon as it's in my hands.
(I usually ship things there because there's usually somebody there, and nobody at my house in the day.)
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Chaz
Vote: Zag



PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 7:15 pm    Post subject: 261 Reply with quote

Well, mine is sent.
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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine



PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 9:55 pm    Post subject: 262 Reply with quote

Zag wrote:
Chaz wrote:
The thing that makes me the most suspicious of you, Zag, is that you understand why Monk's proposal was a bad idea for town, but you voted yes anyway.

An excellent point. From my point of view (at the time), a random three was just a random three, and I didn't have any reason to judge that one better or worse than any other. I remember at the time thinking it was a little odd for someone not to pick himself, but I didn't think it through. It wasn't until later that I thought to consider it from the point of view of the person picking the team, and realized that it was more odd than I originally thought.

So in retrospect you decided that the team was a poor idea, just as UM claims that in retrospect he realized the team was a poor idea. I don't believe that the initial team choice was a telling point for either of your guilt.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland
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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine



PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 9:59 pm    Post subject: 263 Reply with quote

Sentran wrote:
The only thing I’d like to add to this is that I’ve had a few RL problems with my kids this week, and it’s likely coloring my judgment. If you feel I’m attacking or taking out my frustrations with players on the forum, you’re probably right, and I apologize. Unless RL changes drastically over the next week, I will likely be taking some time off of the site after the end of the current games.

Reminder to self: do not post while cranky. Don't even log on. Badness will ensue. I'm sorry for my grumpy outbursts yesterday. I'm feeling much better today, and apologize profusely for projecting my anger on to this site
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland
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dethwing
DeTheeThaw



PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 10:06 pm    Post subject: 264 Reply with quote

I for one didn't take it personally. No worries.
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Poisonium
annoyed by the old



PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 11:04 pm    Post subject: 265 Reply with quote

Quote:
I'm not willing to swap Pois onto the team. His vote for Zag's team made him too suspicious in my mind.


To me, it seemed more than likely that the former team (wordcross, Chaz, Zag, Sentran) only contained one spy. Since I know I'm not a spy, adding me would still only mean it contained one spy. From my (and only my) point of view, that was a definite win for the rebels, which I don't see why I should vote against.
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Poisonium
annoyed by the old



PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 11:58 pm    Post subject: 266 Reply with quote

Also, since Bgg and Sentran are my by far most likely picks for spies, I can accept this. It certainly won't have more than 1 spy.
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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine



PostPosted: Fri Feb 18, 2011 12:16 am    Post subject: 267 Reply with quote

Fools all. Oh well, after we (the resistance) lose this game, you will see that I am not a spy.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland
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Zag
Tired of his old title



PostPosted: Fri Feb 18, 2011 12:33 am    Post subject: 268 Reply with quote

Sentran wrote:
Reminder to self: do not post while cranky. ...

You didn't seem cranky to me. If you imagine that I was owed an apology, you're quite mistaken -- as far as I can see, you did nothing to cause offense.
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Zag
Tired of his old title



PostPosted: Fri Feb 18, 2011 12:34 am    Post subject: 269 Reply with quote

Sentran wrote:
Fools all. Oh well, after we (the resistance) lose this game, you will see that I am not a spy.

Oh, they're not all fools. The spies have been quite clever.

Please finish the voting so we can end this.
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Chaz
Vote: Zag



PostPosted: Fri Feb 18, 2011 1:28 am    Post subject: 270 Reply with quote

Zag wrote:
Sentran wrote:
Reminder to self: do not post while cranky. ...

You didn't seem cranky to me. If you imagine that I was owed an apology, you're quite mistaken -- as far as I can see, you did nothing to cause offense.

I agree with Zag, and if the two of us agree on something, it couldn't possibly be wrong.
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MatthewV
Daedalian Member :_



PostPosted: Fri Feb 18, 2011 1:57 am    Post subject: 271 Reply with quote

In fact, Sentran's behavior yesterday makes me think he isn't a spy. Well, not entirely, but I think wordcross is taking his place.

The funny thing is that we think nearly every leader as being a spy because of the team they picked.
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dethwing
DeTheeThaw



PostPosted: Fri Feb 18, 2011 4:26 am    Post subject: 272 Reply with quote

Sentran: No
RM: Yes
Zag: No
wordcross: Yes
bgg: Yes
MattV: No
Chaz: Yes
Monk: Yes
Poison: Yes

Motion passes, the team is launched.

Pass, Pass, Pass, Fail, Fail.

With a double fail the spies score a point winning the game 3-1.

Your spies were: Wordcross, Poisonium, ralphmerridew

Thanks everyone for playing, hope to do this again.
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wordcross

<memstat>



PostPosted: Fri Feb 18, 2011 4:45 am    Post subject: 273 Reply with quote

I can't imagine how frustrating that game was from the rebel point of view. As a spy it was hilarity =D
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wordcross

<memstat>



PostPosted: Fri Feb 18, 2011 4:46 am    Post subject: 274 Reply with quote

Also, I hope I'm on mattV's team next time around. He seemed to be the most on point for all that he wasn't very good at convincing others.
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ralphmerridew
Daedalian Member



PostPosted: Fri Feb 18, 2011 6:28 am    Post subject: 275 Reply with quote

Congrats to MatthewV for picking out two scum, even if he couldn't convince anybody.

I said it favored the spies before we started and still think so. Every proposed team had enough spies for them to get a point.
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mv*
Guest



PostPosted: Fri Feb 18, 2011 7:06 am    Post subject: 276 Reply with quote

There needs to be more rounds with fewer people on them for the rebels to have a chance. Or the rules need to be changed because I don't think we could ever win with this setup.

I will remain convinced that a longer game benefits the resistance. Without any solid information, the mix of theories is just too great.

And 2/4 of the early posters were spies. We should have trusted that more.
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mv*
Guest



PostPosted: Fri Feb 18, 2011 7:14 am    Post subject: 277 Reply with quote

What would happen if the spies had to submit pass or fail before the leader chose the team?
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Zag
Tired of his old title



PostPosted: Fri Feb 18, 2011 7:24 am    Post subject: 278 Reply with quote

Well, my logic was correct (of course Enthusiastic Grin) but the team I chose would have lost, also. I said that if my theory was incorrect, I was at least getting a 50% chance of success, but I happened to hit the wrong 50%.
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Chaz
Vote: Zag



PostPosted: Fri Feb 18, 2011 1:48 pm    Post subject: 279 Reply with quote

Crap. And I almost voted no! Ecstatic Happiness

Man. I blew this one hard. Enthusiastic Grin

I'm still not entirely clear why wordcross failed his round, but I guess if it works, then it works, right? Ecstatic Happiness
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wordcross

<memstat>



PostPosted: Fri Feb 18, 2011 2:02 pm    Post subject: 280 Reply with quote

Mostly because I knew what the next round would be, so we'd be up 2-1 and then it was highly unlikely that the rounds with 5 players would be able to keep the spies out. Plus I got to feign confusion over why it happened Revenge most foul!
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