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dethwing
DeTheeThaw

 Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2011 3:27 am    Post subject: 1 First off let me say: I want no comments on this thread. Do not post, do not even say if you're playing. I want to keep everything anonymous and when it is all finished then you can post and discuss the results. Also, if you're not familiar with this game please refrain from researching (It's fairly well known. I take no credit in inventing it or anything ) To play, all you have to do is submit via PM a number between 0 and 100 [inclusive] to me. The number does not have to have be an integer, or even rational. Don't send me some weird expression that makes me do a bunch of work to calculate though. The winner is the person who submits the number closest to 2/3 the average of all the guesses. In other words, once I have all the guesses I'll take the average [mean] of the guesses, then take 2/3 of that number. Whoever is closest to this number is the winner! I'll leave this open for a week. Good luck!Last edited by dethwing on Thu May 05, 2011 12:42 am; edited 1 time in total
dethwing
DeTheeThaw

 Posted: Tue May 03, 2011 6:41 pm    Post subject: 2 Results up tomorrow, things look interesting. Thank you for patience and submissions!
dethwing
DeTheeThaw

Posted: Thu May 05, 2011 12:42 am    Post subject: 3

Results!

 Code: Entry             Guess         Difference Amb                71            53.24 3iff               66.66...      48.91 Scurra             50            32.25 Undercover Monk    49.7          31.95 MNOWAX             44            26.24 Lexprod            30            12.25 Groza              25            7.24 Silverfire         17            0.75 Chuck              10            7.75 Quailman           5.67          12.08 Zag                Pi            14.61 bgg1996            28/49         17.18 Ralphmerridew      0.1           17.65 Trojan Horse       0             17.75 Dethwing           0             17.754   AVERAGE           26.63 2/3 Average      17.75

[Sorry that doesn't look very good] -fixed, mv Nice! How'd you do that?

Congrats to Silverfire, coming within .75 of the actual guess.
It looked like Chuck was going to win for a long time, until two late guesses from Amb and 3iff bumped the total up.

So....what was the point of all this? Well, it turns out the "logical" best choice is 0....which of course wasn't even close to winning. Huh?

Well, the logic goes like this. The biggest the average can be is 100. Which means the biggest the target can be is 66.66...
Hence, any choice above this will automatically lose to that number.
Hence, no one should pick a number bigger than that. But if no one picks higher than that, then the biggest the average can be is 66.66.. and the target can't be bigger than 45.45.. Rinse and repeat.

Of course, not everyone follows this logic to completion, hence the results we had.

Thoughts? Comments? Thanks to everyone for playing!
Zag
Tired of his old title

 Posted: Thu May 05, 2011 3:11 am    Post subject: 4 *scratches head*
dethwing
DeTheeThaw

 Posted: Thu May 05, 2011 3:27 am    Post subject: 5 What's confusing you?
Amb
Amb the Hitched.

 Posted: Thu May 05, 2011 4:17 am    Post subject: 6 Hahaha I put 71. I meant 17 Whoops.
Chuck
Daedalian Member

 Posted: Thu May 05, 2011 6:46 am    Post subject: 7 I think you divided the total choices by 14 instead of 15 to get the wrong average.
dethwing
DeTheeThaw

 Posted: Thu May 05, 2011 3:52 pm    Post subject: 8 Ugh, apparently it didn't update the average spot as I added that last one. It doesn't change the winner.
Chuck
Daedalian Member

 Posted: Fri May 06, 2011 5:48 pm    Post subject: 9 Well, I thought zero would be the logical choice but I allowed for some variation of opinion. I forgot to allow for error and insanity. I wouldn't have won even if Amb had sent 17 instead of 71, but it would have been a lot closer.
Zag
Tired of his old title

 Posted: Fri May 06, 2011 8:13 pm    Post subject: 10 I had the same thought, but I figured that the GL crowd was more logical than the average crowd, so I was thinking between 3 and 4. I then picked pi just for the nerd value. I'm curious to hear the reasoning of anyone who picked anything over 33, which would be the logical answer if all the other contestants were picking completely random numbers from 1 to 100. (... and there were a lot of other contestants -- i.e. more than 100 of them. If there are fewer contestants, then the fact that you've picked less than 50 brings the average down enough to matter.)
MNOWAX
0.999... of a Troll

 Posted: Sat May 07, 2011 1:23 am    Post subject: 11 i was throwing a wrench into the gears. I kinda knew where this was headed, so i figured it would throw some guesses off._________________The Man The Myth The Legend MNOWAX
3iff
very unbifflike

 Posted: Mon May 16, 2011 1:18 pm    Post subject: 12 I fugured I would probably be the worst at this...and I would have been if Amb could have typed 17 correctly. In my defence I did spend all of 5 seconds on my guess. Question: Trojan Horse 0 17.75 Dethwing 0 17.754 Did Dethwing pick a lower zero than Trojan Horse?
dethwing
DeTheeThaw

 Posted: Mon May 16, 2011 4:40 pm    Post subject: 13 No. I was clearing off the decimal points from excel, and missed one accidentally.
MatthewV
Daedalian Member :_

 Posted: Mon May 16, 2011 9:23 pm    Post subject: 14 When using [code] tags, it is easiest to work in a text editing program with a monospace font. If everything lines up there, it will line up in the code tags also.
Undercover Monk
Professor Chaos

 Posted: Mon May 16, 2011 11:09 pm    Post subject: 15 for me it was really a WIFOM situation. I decided my guess would be less than 50 right off. but I also thought othre would try to alter the result by picking higher numbers. do I go lower thinking that everyone will be thinking like me or do I adjust figuring we are trying to slit each others throats. LOL so most of you chose logically instead of maniputively. but thats why I chose a higher number_________________The Classic Blunders: 1. never get involved in a land war in Asia 2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line 3. Never release Peyton Manning
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