Bizarro Mafia: It's over! Who won?

[Garou_Kinfolk]

Amb actually did move up in my list, but not enough to jump anyone yet.
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Most posts made from my phone.

[Amb]

I'm quieter in the desperate hope the non posters will contribute something. If one of them is scum, we have no hope. I'm probably going to vote Ctorj or Sentran at nightfall, but I'm back and forthing.

[Sentran]

Garou inadvertently gave me another avenue to pursue. Not just the number of posts for the entire game, but the number of Amb's posts broken down by day. I was about to do this for each player, and I still may since nobody else is posting, but for now I want to focus on the most likely scum candidate.
Day 1, Amb had 20 posts. Day 2, Amb had 34 posts. Day 3, Amb had 25 posts. Day 4, Amb had 12 posts.
Today is day 5, and Amb has made 5 posts. He also voted for an extension, but has only made 1 post since then. What, if I may ask, was the purpose of voting for an extension if you are not prepared to take full advantage of it?
PREVIEW EDIT: Amb posted again, but it was woefully short.
That gives Amb 97 posts in total. While that does make him the most vocal player in the game, his frequency has gone steadily down as more scum are lynched. Perhaps he's trying not to slip up now that he's all alone.

Something else stood out to me while reading Amb's ISO to do the post count.

[Amb]

All I can say is that you are just plain wrong.

All the names mentioned after you were town, so are you saying I actually got it right with you being scum? After reading your post, I was actually thinking I would go for Ctorj.

The only defense I can give to those posts - is that I have never ever targetted newbs and lurkers when I am scum.

Other than that, the pattern of lynching the verbose remains a stupid plan.

[Quailman]

Thanks for that clarification, Garou. I read the posts in order and was about to start back to see what you were on about when I spied the next post.

Without the extension, I would have voted Ctorj. Now Sentran and Amb are attacking each other. They were next on my list after Ctorj, but Ctorj hasn't posted anything since the extension. Until recently I had entertained the theory that one of Zag & Amb was scum. Now Zag is dead. He wasn't scum. That leaves Amb. But now my theory is that one of Amb or Sentran is scum. If I vote to lynch one and he flips town, we lynch the other - game over, but my theories suck. I'll see where we stand tomorrow, if there even is one.

I think I should just stay with suspicions and right now I think Sentran and Amb are tied; Ctorj is # 3, and Garou is #4. Garou is close behind Ctorj because he seems to be low on everyone's list and I find that suspicious.

I moved Sentran up because he was committing to vote Amb when it looked like Amb, Garou and I were wanting to vote Ctorj. That looked too much like "I told you so" positioning, that he could look back tomorrow and say "See, if you had lynched Amb the game would be over".

I didn't go back and count all of Amb's posts like Sentran did. I get an overall impression like Sentran said, that he's being more cautious.

[post-preview] Amb says he's never targeted newbs and lurkers when he's scum. That would be precisely why he'd do it. He's no newb.[/pp]

[Amb]

For what it's worth, Sentrans attack on me, while misguided, does make me prefer to lynch Ctorj. But it's been a hard thought thing.

[Sentran]

[Amb]

And theres my point. Its the same people posting to keep the game alive. If the final mafia is one of the quiet ones, we wont have any hope. And you run the risk that Ctorj, if town, could end up being alive at the end to swing the game. If he hasnt been trying hard previously, why would he be trying hard at the end...

[Sentran]

Fair enough. I'm 20 shots into my 40th birthday right now, so I apologize in advance for drunk posting. I'm going to vote for Ctorj tonight unless he posts in the near future. If Amb turns scum, I may personally hunt him down and kick him in the jimmy. Just sayin'.

BTW, thank goodness for spell check.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Jedo the Jedi]

That is the most coherent drunk post I have ever seen which leads me to believe you are not in fact drunk. Maybe once you have drunk your age in shots.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Ctorj]

[Quailman]

I know that RL obligations come and go in peoples' lives, so I try not to overweight posting patterns (gaps & bunches) in determining suspicions. That being said, I noticed that Ctorj was under immediate suspicion today, and posted a couple of times. Then it began to look like he was falling down the lists for the other remaining participants as Sentran and Amb accused each other. He remained silent until the pendulum started to swing back his way. Coincidence? Perhaps; perhaps not.

I noticed that Ctorj said something about the scum killing at night. I checked back at the rules to make sure they don't submit their choices at night for the following day and saw that this is not the case. They send in their kill during the day, just as the Doc and Tracker did. In the mafia tradition of damned if you do and damned if you don't, the "mistake" can be considered deliberate - "I can't be scum because I didn't even know their mechanics." Or not.

Bottom line: I need to consider try to read the day's posts with the perspective of "If he's scum" and "If he's town". It's too easy to rationalize support for my position when I already suspect someone.

[Sentran]

[Zag]

Sentran, this link is just for you. Something to think about on your next birthday.

[Sentran]

Double-post!
I caught the same thing Quailman did about the rules mechanics that Ctorj misread. Was it deliberate? I'm not sure - I'll have to think about it. I'm back to not knowing which way to vote.
Can anyone give me a good picture of Quailman as a player? I don't have a solid read on him yet.
Garou is very good at being quiet and unobtrusive in real life, and I can see similar patterns here. He could be hanging out in the background and asking questions to keep people talking about each other, and ignoring him altogether. It's definitely a possibility.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Amb]

[Sentran]

[Sentran]

Once again we are rapidly approaching a deadline with a minimum of added discussion. This is why I did not, and will not vote for more extensions. They are great things only if we take advantage of them. Otherwise they are great wastes of time.

The only person I am definitely not voting for tonight is myself. I'm almost ready to roll a random to vote at this point. Amb, I want to believe that you're town, but I also know how devious you can be. Garou, I know you well enough IRL to realize that you could be quietly waiting while the town kill each other off. Ctorj has been too quiet for too long, and claims RL reasons. I appreciate that, and due to his lack of night votes I have trouble believing that he's the remaining scum. Quailman is a bit of an unknown entity for me this game.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Jedo the Jedi]

It is now Night! Please send your votes within the next 48 hours.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Jedo the Jedi]

Official Vote Count:

Ctorj (2) - Amb, Quailman
Quailman (1) - Sentran
Sentran (1) - Ctorj
Amb (1) - Garou_Kinfolk

-----

"Guys, I've just been real busy. I don't really have time to figure out who is killing people," said Ctorj.

"You don't have time to figure out who is committing murder?" Amb asked incredulously.

"What could possibly be more important than preserving people's lives?" hounded Quailman.

"Such a flippant attitude suggests you are the murderer," remarks Sentran.

"Then I guess lynch me and see if the murders stop. Maybe I'll finally have time for the things I need to do," replies Ctorj with a sigh.

Ctorj is led to the gallows without a fight. You soon discover he was simply an overtaxed townie, nothing more.

Ctorj, vanilla townie, is dead. Day ends 1 week from this post.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Sentran]

[Quailman]

I was leaning toward Amb, but your switching each day has me wondering. You helped at the start of yesterday accusing Ctorj. You weren't alone, but I notice that you decided by the end of the day to feign indecision, calling me an "unknown quantity". Then you vote for me, a risky move, because without someone else committed to voting with you, you were risking a tie, a move which would seem to favor the scum. Of course, it sets you up for today, since you knew Ctorj was innocent, and you could show that you didn't vote for him.

Garou is my unknown quantity. If he is keeping a low profile while the rest of us attack each other, he's done a good job. My suspicion list is:

Sentran
Amb
Garou

[Sentran]

I was focusing on Ctorj at the beginning of yesterday due to his lack of posts. His responses seemed sincere enough to move my vote, and it turns out I was right. Of course, NOT voting for the one most players were focused on and moving my vote to Quailman (who I stated was an unknown quantity) was OBVIOUSLY just a brilliant mafia play on my part in order to ensure that I have no control over who lives and dies. Yep, I'm crafty like that. [/sarcasm]
Seriously though, I'm going to try to analyze the game from the one factual bit of information we have, votes and death. Every player is suspect until dead, so I'm going to ignore testimony and see where the votes take us.

Day 1: Lifeinmomland(town) is killed.

Night 1:
Amb(?) votes Zag(town)
Sentran(?) votes Amb(?)
Ctorj(town) votes bgg1996(scum)
Lucresia/Apple Sause(town) votes bgg1996(scum)
bgg1996(scum) votes Zag(town)
Zag(town) votes bgg1996(scum)
Garou_Kinfolk(?) votes Amb(?)
Undercover Monk(town) votes Amb(?)
cloudRunner(doc) votes Quailman(?)
Quailman(?) votes Garou_Kinfolk(?)
MNOWAX(tracker) votes Zag(town)
3iff(scum) votes Quailman(?)
There were no deaths, since there was a 3-way tie. Since the scum know who is and is not town, with the possible exception of distancing votes, this would clear Quailman. Those voting with scum who are still alive are only 1, Amb. This puts 1 point on Amb.

Day 2: Undercover Monk(town) is killed.

Night 2:
Amb(?) votes 3iff(scum)
Sentran(?) votes Amb(?)
Ctorj(town) votes 3iff(scum)
Lucresia/Apple Sause(town) did not vote
bgg1996(scum) votes Lucresia/Apple Sause(town)
Zag(town) votes bgg1996(scum)
Garou_Kinfolk(?) votes 3iff(scum)
cloudRunner(doc) votes 3iff(scum)
Quailman(?) votes 3iff(scum)
MNOWAX(tracker) votes 3iff(scum)
3iff(scum) votes MNOWAX(tracker)
3iff(scum) is lynched. The only living player that did not vote him was me. 1 point for me.

Day 3: cloudRunner(doc) is killed.

Night 3:
Amb(?) votes bgg1996(scum)
Sentran(?) votes bgg1996(scum)
Ctorj(town) votes bgg1996(scum)
Lucresia/Apple Sause(town) did not vote
bgg1996(scum) votes Sentran(?)
Zag(town) votes bgg1996(scum)
Garou_Kinfolk(?) votes bgg1996(scum)
Quailman(?) votes bgg1996(scum)
MNOWAX(tracker) votes Sentran(?)
bgg1996(scum) is lynched. Everyone still alive was on that bandwagon, so the only thing I can add is that bgg voted for me.

Day 4: MNOWAX(tracker) is killed.

Night 4:
Amb(?) votes Ctorj(town)
Sentran(?) votes Amb(?)
Ctorj(town) did not vote
Lucresia/Apple Sause(town) votes Zag(town)
Zag(town) votes Quailman(?)
Garou_Kinfolk(?) votes Sentran(?)
Quailman(?) votes Zag(town)
Zag(town) is lynched. Garou and I voted for as-yet unknowns, while Amb and Quailman voted for townies. 1 point each for Quailman and Amb.

Day 5: Lucresia/Apple Sause(town) is killed.

Night 5:
Amb(?) votes Ctorj(town)
Sentran(?) votes Quailman (1)
Ctorj(town) votes Sentran(?)
Garou_Kinfolk(?) votes Amb(?)
Quailman(?) votes Ctorj(town)
Ctorj(town) is lynched. Again, the two on the vote were Amb and Quailman. 1 point each for Quailman and Amb.

That brings the tally (tl;dr) to this.
Amb: 3 points
Quailman: 2 points
Sentran: 1 point
Garou_Kinfolk: 0 points

There it is, do with it what you will.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Amb]

If we do go to a final 3, I for one am glad Ctorj wont be casting that vote. Because he wasn't trying. Was it the wrong choice? In the end, yes, but its his own fault. I'm going to go over each of the living again and see what I can come up with. But I think its going to be very hard to pin down Qman or Garou. Sentran of late has been less scummy but I just dont know what to make of that right now.

[Garou_Kinfolk]

So here we are on just about the last day, and we have a hard choice to make. There is one question I have to ask everyone.

Why have you voted the way you did?

I think this is the last bit I can think to offer at this point in the game. I'm not going to get into much detail at the moment as I'm getting ready for work.

Night 1: I voted for Amb. He seemed to be pushing the "Die O' Death" too much for me.

Night 2: I voted 3iff. The reasoning I can't remember right off without rereading, so I'll come back to it when I have time.

Night 3: I voted for Bgg 1996. He was high on my scum list and was a common thread to vote for.

Night 4: I voted for Sentran. I had reread all of the posts, and his 8 seperate posts saying we'd be voting town in one form or another madw me think he was protesting too much.

Night 5: I voted for Amb again. The moee I thought about it, the more him being quiet bugged me and moved him up my list.

Tonight, as of right now, I'm thinking it's between Amb and Sentran. Quailman had the vote from Bgg on night 1, but hasn't really contributed much. I guess I'll have to wait until scum kills someone before I can makw some kind of final decision.
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Most posts made from my phone.

[Jedo the Jedi]

The numbers had thinned. The group was becoming murderously small. You would think this would cause such open killing to be more difficult, but the final mafioso got his victim once again.

"Garou, we need you to wake up. You were just saying something. Keep going," encouraged Amb as he nudged Garou_Kinfolk.

"I didn't know he was narcoleptic," said Sentran.

"At this point, I'm willing to believe anything is possible with this group," Quailman stated as he threw his arms into the air.

"Actually, I don't think he's breathing," Amb interjected as he went to check Garou_Kinfolk's pulse. "He's definitely dead."

Garou_Kinfolk, townie, has been killed. Day will end 72 hours from this post (barring an extension according to the rules). Tonight's vote is the town's final chance to win.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Sentran]

Figures. Well, it's up to you two now. Win or lose?
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Garou_Kinfolk]

WITH MY LAST BREATH, I CURSE ZOIDBERG!!!

Go town!
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Most posts made from my phone.

[Sentran]

Amb, Quailman, who are you voting for tonight?
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Sentran]

Here we go again. We have approximately 30 hours left until nightfall, and I'm the only one who is posting. Congratulations to the final Mafia member, you're going to win by default (because it's all de town's fault).
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Quailman]

Whoa! I missed that. I was working from the day's opening post, which said one week from Wednesday evening. I read the death scene to see who was killed, but the 72 hours being that much sooner didn't register with me.

Tonight I will vote for either Sentran or Amb. When today began I was leaning heavily toward Sentran. I made that clear, and that Amb was my second choice, with Garou third. Garou voted Amb last night. There's only three of us left, so it's pretty basic. Although Garou hadn't said he'd vote Amb again tonight, he voted for him last night. I indicated an inclination toward Sentran. Now that I know it's either Amb or Sentran, I am thinking Amb would have chosen Garou to tip the scale toward Sentran.

OTOH, Sentran would know that I would think that, so...

Too WIFOM for me. I will probably vote Amb.

[Sentran]

In that case, since he's been higher on my radar through most of this game, I'll vote for Amb as well.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Amb]

Sentran, I think you are probably town. The more I read, the more I go back on what I have been thinking. If you are town, dont vote me - as your votes on me have almost been 'It's amb. It's always Amb'

But whichever.

Look hard at Qmans last post

"Tonight I will vote for either Sentran or Amb". Well of course he will - there are 3 alive. He isn't trying to find scum. He is trying to follow you. And that will end the game in his favour. Quail is the scum, and if you don't vote him we both lose.

[Quailman]

You didn't have anything to say about my leaning heavily toward Sentran earlier today. Now, suddenly you think I'm scum? You would have been alright going into night thinking I would vote Sentran, because you would too. Now, instead of trying to convince me to go back to Sentran you think you can sway him more easily?

I actually wasn't 100% convinced before that post. Now I feel much better about my vote.

[Sentran]

Amb, Quailman, congratulations to you both. You've played a hell of a game. The fact that I'm second-guessing myself so completely on the last day means that the final scum has done their job well. I went back through votes to check, and neither of you have voted me, or each other for that matter.

I know that I'm town, and one of you knows that as well. The carefully balances and well-played indecision seems genuine from both of you. I need to get a bit more sleep and think on this before I make my final decision on who receives my vote tonight.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Amb]

Look how quailman's trying to twist me now. Go back through my prolific posts. If I am scum, I played a bad over the radar game. Quailman was one of the players who wasn't contributing the whole game. He has reason to. He knows if he posts too much, he gets caught. It comes down to this:

1. If I am now wrong about Sentran, and he is scum, scum win.
2. If I am now right, and Sentran isn't scum - then Sentran has the casting vote. He needs to pick right.

If I had more time I could try to pick Quailman apart, but I might not convince Sentran. THis is something he has to do....

[Jedo the Jedi]

It is now Night. Send your votes so we can end this game.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Jedo the Jedi]

All the votes are in, but I'm not posting the conclusion tonight because I don't want to type up my mod reflections yet. Suspense!
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Jedo the Jedi]

Official Vote Count:

Amb (2) - Sentran, Quailman
Quailman (1) - Amb

-----

"This is so dumb! Quailman is the final scum! Don't lynch me! You're making a huge mistake!" bellows Amb as Sentran and Quailman drag him to the gallows.

"It just all lines up," remarks Sentran, "Quailman as scum just doesn't make as much sense."

Amb is strung up.

"It was either you or Sentran," interjects Quailman, "I didn't really care which." With that, Quailman throws the lever.

"What was that?" asks Sentran. "'You didn't really care which'? I don't understand. We were supposed to be hunting for the last scum. It mattered a lot. If we got it wrong..."

"You lose."

Quailman pulls out his gun and shoots Sentran in the chest, securing his team's victory.

The mafia have won! Congratulations! Note to follow.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Jedo the Jedi]

First and foremost, thanks for playing my game. I know it was basic, but I was trying to get back to the basics of hunting scum using our brains rather than through role information. What did you think? How would you improve the game? Do you think it could be played again with more/different roles?

The setup was really to see what a blind vote would do. Feel free to discuss what you think that changed. It really was pretty balanced. The bad luck here is the doctor was too inactive to avoid attention, and the tracker outed himself (perhaps too early, perhaps not). The other option was a watcher instead of a tracker. The difference is usefulness early (watcher) and late (tracker). Once you get down to one mafia like the town made it, the tracker is super useful. *shrug*

For myself, I thought it worked pretty well. I think the biggest problem is the town became hung up on the mechanics. You guys spent way too much time trying to figure out the odds of what would be best rather than just looking at posts. Also, some inactivity was a problem, but I don't think it was anything more than something to be hurdled. I mean, you guys were rid of two scum by Day 4, and bgg should really have been lynched sooner. Zag pointed out the post that was really scummy. (I'll try to dig it up.)

The dead QT is here, and the scum QT is here. Incidentally, the mafia won on MS also in the same way: two down early, and the other just hung on despite being the object of much attention.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.