Winter has begun... (Game over!)

[Sentran]

Day 4, 13 alive, 7 to lynch
Deadline: Monday, 9 April
Official Vote Count

[Garou_Kinfolk]

First thing. (Been wanting to do this since day 2)

www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7L2PVdrb_8

Yay town for not dying!

And finally, I have a new message from little birds. It says a little bird informs me that one of Chataya’s working girls was severely beaten by a patron. Again, no idea what it means.
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Most posts made from my phone.

[itisally]

I have a couple of things that I have been working on over night. I will post the easy one first. There has been a lot of talk about who is hiding in the shadows and lurking in corners so here is a list of people in order of post counts for day 3

[Zag]

What a relief! I was really worried that we'd lose two more, and we could have found ourselves approaching lynch or lose. Nice job! to whoever prevented the kill (kills?) last night!

I really not that wild about going after lurkers. I don't usually find it to be that much of a scum tell, honestly. After all, there's one of our best-confirmed townie in the queen lurker position. We are past time for policy lynches and we really have to find a scum.

I only wish I had something useful to suggest. I can hardly blame people for the Amb lynch, since I was front and center on it. Of course there are scum on that bandwagon, but I no longer feel that I have the least bit of clue. I'm just hoping that someone learned something of value last night, but I'm still not sure if it is time to out yourself to share it.

[Garou_Kinfolk]

[itisally]

I agree that I am not sure where to go from here. I thought I would take a look at who was on the Lynches. I think I mentioned before how much I like charts. I underlined the dead and bolded known scum.

Day 1: jadesmar (11): Deception, Undercover Monk, Zag, Elethiomel, novice, Fritzler, Lucresia, itisally, MNOWAX, jadesmar, Jedo the Jedi
Day 2: Deception (7): Amb, ohcapt13, MNOWAX, cloudRunner, 3iff, Silverfire
Day 3: Amb (8): itisally, Zag, MNOWAX, spyrl, ohcapt13, cloudRunner, 3iff, Undercover Monk

Person on all three: MNOWAX
People on two: Undercover Monk, Zag, itisally, cloudRunner, 3iff, ohcapt13, Jedo the Jedi
People(alive) on one: Silverfire

So I was thinking, what does this really tell me? I would assume that Scum would not be so blatant as to be on all three townie lynches so I feel even better about my town read on MNOWAX. Day one we are all guessing except the mafia and it takes a lot to lynch so there are likely to be a couple hiding there, but for days 2 and 3 I would think that they would avoid being on both. So, 3iff, Ohcapt, and cloudRunner look a little more town like. It isn’t much because I am pretty confident that Zag is town. I know that I am town. That leaves me looking more closely at Undercover Monk and Jedo today.
I also noticed that cloudRunner keeps coming coming up in people’s votes but hasn’t really had any direct pressure so I might go looking there.
Anyone have some more information regarding these three guys?
_________________
I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong.

[Undercover Monk]

well balls. I was hoping for at least 1 death so we have another confirmed townie =(. The only scum we have hit was done by a third party so this town has yet to do anything useful. And the annoying part for me is its not from lack of trying. for a 20 player game lurking hasnt been a huge issue we have a few but most of the remaining players are at least checking in. Dont forget we may need to kill one of our masons if we get deeper into the game. If silver is kept alive just cause we know hes town but he isnt voting LoL gets pushed up one cycle.

For instance say Zag and itsally are scum and its down to them silver, garou, and me. town still has a voting majority but since silver isnt posting they would have effectively won the game at 5. Its also very possible ther are 3 scum left plus a serial killer. so we have a lot to do.

Thats my initial raection to the news of the day. Im not commenting on the little birds because like I said before I have not read any of the books.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Zag]

You think that there are only 3 scum left? I can't believe that Sentran built a game with 21 people but only 4 scum. I've been assuming that there are at least 4 left, possibly even 5 (and an SK). That's why I was so worried about waking up and finding two more dead townies this morning.

In any case, your logic is so flawed as to be suspicious. It's true that an inactive townie is no help once we reach lynch or lose, but having one remaining is still better than having a scum remaining. We have no chance of lynching a scum if we focus on the inactive known townies.

If you're trying to say that Silver shouldn't be as cleared as she is, then I'd agree that is a conversation worth having (though I doubt very much you'd convince me). But if you're saying that you believe her to be town but want a policy lynch anyway, then you might as well admit that we've otherwise run out of targets for you and your scum buddies to go after.

[Durryn]

Vote: Cloudrunner

See yesterday for my explanation.

Dang... I am sooooo tired of trying to read these guys and gals. We have to protect the town and I have been thinking a mass claim at this point wouldn't be such a bad idea.

What does everyone else think? Are we allowed to do that?
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If there's anything around here more important than my ego, I want it caught and shot now! - Zaphod Beeblebrox

[Undercover Monk]

really Zag you think there are possibly 5 scum left and a sk. that would be a total of 6 mafia, a sk and a vig. 8 killing roles more than 1/3 of the roles I doubt that. if there are 5 left we are screwed anyway. so when should we kill silver. unless you dont want us to take out the inactives cause its helping you win scum.

anyway silver can wait for the moment:

I was inspired by Zag to do a little hypothetical thinking about the Amb bandwagon. Lets look at all the votes and why they may be town or scum.

Town reasons to vote Amb:
Itsally: Amb seems to know more than letting on.
Zag: Amb was lying he needed to be pressured.
MNO: Amb's ability may be the SK????
spyrl: Agrees with reasoning
UM: Can get behind an amb lynch (later made the argument amb gave us the most info.)
Garou: Lynch all Liars and gut instinct
Ohcapt: Amb is at the top of his scum meter
cloudrunner: Ambs rolename could not be in the game.
3iff: agrees with cloudrunner

Ok now lets assume each voter is scum why did they put their vote on Amb????

Itisally: being the first voter gives ally some credit. However Amb was a pretty good choice to start a bandwagon on and ally seems to fade into the background once the bandwagon gets rolling. also re-read jedo's post 1156 on itisally and he does raise several good points IGMEOY

Zag: Kinda led the charge on Amb. first as a liar and then at least lending credence to cloudrunners theory on Ambs claim. not much time passed between you initial vote and confirm vote (less than 24 hours and a very short post by amb). pretty simple bandwagon leading going on here if you are scum.

MNO: Just being MNO. he makes a great scum because he is impossible to read.

Spyrl/UM/Garou/Ohcap/3iff: Blatant bandwagonning votes on these 5. while mine had a higher purpose thats what it was. 3iffs came after the theory put forth by cloud so I give him a semi pass there. The most damning IMHO is spyrl and ohcap whenever lurkers bandwagon its always suspicious and ohcap is new enough to make it an obvious new scum tell. Garou gets a pass cause he is as close to a 100% confirmed town as you get in mafia.

Cloudrunner gets a seperate entry cause his was more than just bandwagonning. It was a new piece of evidence and what appeared to be if not strong at least very logical. However if he knows the books this is a very easy scum move. why bother planting evidence against amb when he can just say look at the flavor text. Ambs role can not possibly exist. Also if you look at how he reacts to the ambwagon its very flip-floppy. In post 1144 he meta-games about the E and novice kills (meta-gaming on kills always raises red flags to me) he finishes that post with a case against durryn. In his next significant post (1212) he defends amb saying that he doesnt see a scum being so flippatnt with their double votes if they would get locked in. in his next series of posts he continues to defend amb. then amb claims and all the arguments he wasmaking mean nothing. Im not condemning him but it does give the vibe he was just waiting for an opening.


all that being said this is my list of people we should focus on first

scummy
Ohcapt: bandwagoner and lurker (its a 2 for 1 special)
Spyrl: same as above
Itisally: You dont like the spotlight being on you do you
Cloudrunner: dangerous player. If hes town he has made very good if incorrect points but if hes scum he is deadly good at what hes doing
Zag: semi confirmed but I have a sneaky suspicion that MNO and Zag are trying to pull off the greatest mafia gambit ever
MNOWAX: just being MNOWAX
3iff: no read and not as lurkish as others.
Not so Scummy

Innocent-ish: Garou

a note on myself: since Ive added myself in this I will give my opinion. though you have no reason to trust me anyway If I were an outsider I would probably put my name right around the cloudrunner level. If Im scum Im rocking this game if Im not then Ive made a decent contribution but gotten no where so far. I was right about deception though.

what do you think should we pressure ohcapt or does anyone agree with the scum reads n the active town members.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Captin Aniima]

I’ve been thinking that Zag and MNO are really really dumb town or really really good mafia. Personally I’m leaning toward dumb town but I want some feedback.
Mostly I have been thinking of ways to say stuff to help without seeming like I’m scum but by now I figure if I breathe then I’m still gonna get a scum tell.
Fos: cloudRunner. You are getting on everyones heels about being helpful to town, like Deception, and yet you aren’t being very helpful yourself.
I have at least put forward some thoughts that are helpful to the town and whether or not you are listening to me is up to you. now I’m not going to repeat any of my thought because that is a waste of my time if you want to find theses go ahead and ISO me.

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Just sayin... The sky is blue.

[itisally]

@ Amiina - The problem is that I know from experience that Zag is not a dumb townie, he is a force to be reckoned and often sees patterns in the fog that I miss. The problem with that is it lends credence to the other option. As UM said it would be quite a ploy. I would think that someone with an investigative role may have gathered more info about them by now, but everyone seems to be playing their cards pretty close to their chests.

@ UM- You are right I don't like being in the spot light it is bad for my health as town or scum. My goal is to present my views on things and then see how others react. Go a head and keep an eye on me, I have nothing to hide.
I am torn about the silver thing. I see how leaving her until a LoL is bad, however I agree with Zag that it is a waste of a lynch that could be used to catch scum. Mostly I think it is to early in the day to resort to that. and find it slightly scummy that it would be your first suggestion of the day.

I did drop off yesterday(last week). School was canceled for snow so I didn't have as much uninterrupted computer time. I hope I can make up for it with some good input today. Some comments I would have liked to make: After further investigation, My character had headed to King's landing. (Yeah for "Find" on the Kindle). But when I read the setting from Sentran it reads to me like any one still in Westros is fair game. (not North of the wall and not over seas). With that, even those in Winterfell (the Stark boys) could be in the game.
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I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong.

[Garou_Kinfolk]

I've been thinking. 3iffs vote came less then 12 hours after my unvote. That may be just when he was able to vote earliest, but then again it might be sum avoiding a hammer vote. Its hard to say.

At the beginning of the game a mass claim would have been good, but now they've had time to find safe claims.

Silver is lurking, but she posted in the mason forum last night. She said cloudrunner was being very aggressive to get Amb lynched. I agree with her.

Monk still wanting to lynch a confirmed town mason seems like a waste of town time and a lynch.

I'll see if I can post more later.
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Most posts made from my phone.

[cloudRunner]

I will make a full post later, but I just wanted to say one quick thing.

The reason why I was all but convinced regarding the mod's wording was because I had PM'd him at the beginning of the game to clarify the game's setting and the response he gave me I misunderstood as a soft confirmation that my assumption (only King's Landing characters) was correct. I don't want to talk about this any further as this is outside-the-game and unverifiable at this point but keep that in mind when you try to judge me as "acting too aggressively towards Amb". I will post more when I get a chance to sit down tonight.
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Forever is such an unpleasant word

[Garou_Kinfolk]

Sorry Cloudrunner. I had misquoted Silver. Her words were "overly eager" not aggressive, though the two can seem similar, which is where I made the mistake.
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Most posts made from my phone.

[Undercover Monk]

ok thats makes me very suspicious of silver its one thing if she is not able to keep up the game its another if she is purposely lurking. can you ask her to please participate or request to be replced.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Jedo the Jedi]

Checking in. Good news about the night's events. I will comment tomorrow on the things put out there, along with the direction I want to head.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[Sentran]

Prodding Silverfire now.
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Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[3iff]

[itisally]

I looked into who may have been at the brothel, but didn't come up with anything that I thought would help in game. Some character names, but it would not be limited to those. Without knowing who was attacked or how to link the information to what is going on in the game I fear it is useless.
Alayaya- Chataya's daughter
Chataya- Brothel owner
Mhaegen- Barra's Mother
Barra- Robert's bastard (baby)
Tyrion- Frequents Brothels
_________________
I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong.

[Jedo the Jedi]

itisally, I am only on one of those lynches, so I'll thank you to remember that before you start painting me because of VCA. (If it's for something else, fine, but let's have correct facts.)

Monk, I see and understand your reasoning about Silver, but I really don't agree. Since she is now confirmed town, if we ever get to such a situation, she can surely be reached to come and throw down a vote or be replaced for just such a purpose. No need to be doing something like that. Regarding your following post, I can also see pressuring ohcapt, but what else scummy has he really done? Maybe if there is an argument he hasn't been around enough to get a solid read, but I still think there are people who actually seem scummy who would be better targets.

I really don't like spyrl's post(s) at the end of yesterday. Maybe she was trying to draw a kill, or maybe she was trying to make herself seem invaluable. It feels pretty shady either way.

I see fit to return to my vote: Durryn. I think it was a good point that cloudrunner initially made: it seems like Durryn wanted off the main lynch to avoid suspicion, but he botched it by putting the diversionary vote on a cleared person. The town was distracted by Amb yesterday, but I think this warrants due consideration today.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[itisally]

Sorry about that Jedo, It was an honest mistake.
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I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong.

[Jedo the Jedi]

I'm sure it was. I've made a few myself (like the one spyrl mentioned earlier). I just like to talk tough.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[itisally]

Jedo, I was wondering what your feelings on CloudRunner are.
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I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong.

[cloudRunner]

So to start off, I'm sorry I led the town on a bad lynch against Amb. I came to realize after the lynch votes were met that I was going to be wrong when Amb didn’t make a “bah” post and as you can see I let out my frustration on the mod. I did PM an apology to him and let out some more frustration regarding his wording in that post but I am over that now. I’m not going to just sit back and let you guys lynch me out of retaliation, though. I know the scum would love to push for a lynch on me now since I’m such an easy target for a retaliation-lynch.

[Durryn]

Cloudrunner, I have answered your question and if you don't like my answer, tough.

LYNCH ALL LIARS:

[cloudRunner]

Again, let me spell it out for you. I want YOUR response to MY accusation of trying to shield yourself from getting flak for being on a bad lynchwagon. Even your behavior with the Amb wagon seems to fall in line with this - distancing from lynching someone who, if ended up flipping town, wouldn't get you on someone's scumdar.

[Durryn]

Go away cloudRunner, you're pissing me off.
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If there's anything around here more important than my ego, I want it caught and shot now! - Zaphod Beeblebrox

[cloudRunner]

That'll happen when you vote for someone with some actual reasoning. I don't see how you can say that I'm not scum hunting. All you gave in defense of Amb was 1255, which I shot down in the following post. Just because I got Amb wrong doesn't mean I'm intentionally trying to kill off townies. Unlike you, who wanted to lynch Lucresia to see if the mason claim is legit.

So keep ignoring my questions. Getting "pissed off" at a random person on the internet is a cool story, bro.
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Forever is such an unpleasant word

[Jedo the Jedi]

[Undercover Monk]

[Sentran]

[Undercover Monk]

I think you took my post the wrong way I was in no means blaming you for the replacements. But just pointing out that you had replaced jedos role twice while while others simply were modkilled like I said its metagaming.

For example Jedo leaves you replace with quail who also leaves because their role is critical to the balance of the game you do not wish to modkill that role so you ask if jedo would take over since quail cant do it. Would you be that desperate to ask a player who already requested replacement back in the game if it were something like mason I doubt it.

Total metagaming and in no way does that constitute evidence against jedo. which is why Im voting OCap. Its just part of my overall theory. In fact sentran you have done very well considering all the inactivity you've had to deal with.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning

[Silverfire]

My lurking hasn't been intentional. I've been really busy, I regret taking this on and letting other players down, and I would ask to be replaced except I know there are no replacements left.

I have only weak suspicions, so I'm going to do a little analysis and see what comes up.

I don't know if this is going to be helpful to anyone, but I broke down the three final vote counts we've had so far. We've been voting for mostly townies, so the information might not be that helpful, but here it is. "Townie" is the number of times that person was voting for a townie in a final vote count, and "Living" is the number of times they voted for someone who is still living. No one voted for Fritzler, our only known scum, in a final vote count. The list of people who ever voted for Fritzler is Garou_Kinfolk, ohcapt13, Durryn, itisally.)

[Jedo the Jedi]

[Zag]

I've been reading over this interplay between UMonk and Jedo. Frankly, they both seem at least as suspicious as ohcapt. Does anyone else think that UMonk and Jedo are scum buddies, and their little disagreement over OhCapt is just acting?

Looking at both their records, I have to admit that Jedo stood firm in support of Amb, either having seen something that we didn't or possibly he had an actual ability involved. If he were scum, he took a big chance of derailing the bandwagon on a fairly powerful townie.

UMonk, on the other hand, put in the hammer. It was just a time-saver, because the result was foregone, anyway, but it hardly adds to his credibility. However, his constant calls for mod-kills and for killing known townies have gotten my suspicions up. If this were day 1 or 2, his actions would be strong enough for me to vote. But here we are, getting past the half-way point with very little to work with. So I'm just going to give a strong FOS UMonk, but I don't think it's enough to vote.

[itisally]

I was eyeballing CloudRunner, but I think he has done a pretty good job for now.

I have been feeling sketchy about UM and Jedo. I do feel like it may be possible that they are trying to bus someone who isn't very active to build credibility with the town.

I don't think Durryn is scum because he disagreed with Cloudrunner's interpretation of the setting. Durryn didn't vote for Amb because he believed the claim and read, correctly, that Stannis could be in the game based on the setting. UM and CloudRunner keep dogging him about it. Right now I think that Um maybe trying to lynch the townie and/or buddy up with Cloudrunner.

Of course this assumes I believe Durryn, think CloudRunner is town and UM, Jedo & OhCapt are scum. I could be wrong. I have no solid evidence (hence no vote yet)

And just a note on my vote analysis: I didn't vote based on it because I understand the fundamental flaw in using that as a single piece of context. Both Jedo and Cloudrunner have used said that I shouldn't thin someone is (isn't) scum based on a vote analysis and all I can say to them is "Well duh!" But that doesn't mean that we shouldn't look at it. What are you afraid we will see?
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I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong.

[Jedo the Jedi]

For the record, cloudRunner and myself are hounding Durryn about voting a claimed mason (Lucresia) instead of MNO/Deception (or nobody at all, as would have been my preference).
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting.

[3iff]

On hounding Durryn: I commented on this earlier after someone had raised the point. Switching away from MNO/Deception was 'fair enough'. Then immediately voting for Lucresia (after the mass of votes had already moved off her) seemed utterly pointless. Lucresia was never a lynch candidate at that point. Just unvoting would have been a less controversial ploy.

I'm still undecided whether this was stupid, clever or one of those indecisive moments. A quick skim of Durryn's ISO doesn't show anything helpful (other than a possible bussing of Fritzler on day 1...wow, that was a long time ago).

The UM/Jedo spat seems to have erupted from nowhere...odd and confusing. I can't work out if they are attacking Ohcapt13 or defending him, but they have managed to bring him back on the radar though.

[Undercover Monk]

interesting responses. I didnt know me and jedo were arguing. Im scumhunting he responded. Im not deception. speaking of which I love how Zag gives jedo a pass for his support of Amb but my firm support of deception means nothing.

anyway on to jedo's response:

I had a feeling you wouldnt get what I was trying to show you. I should have explained it better.