SURVIVOR MAFIA- TOWN WINS reunion show

[The Great Crep'er]

I am on what I suspect to be a flimsy internet connection so don't expect me to be on a whole lot today.

[The Great Crep'er]

I am currently considering outting my other night choices I have made so far during the course of the game to see if they match up with anything. Thoughts?

[The Great Crep'er]

Add the fact that Sentran is now asking to be lynched, and I don't think it's totally out of the question to consider that he is acknowledging that I have highlighted a vulnerability of his. If you take him to be scum, I wouldn't let him be your vote advisor. If you take him to be town...well that's a very odd way to play as town.

[Elethiomel]

I think you should post your other night actions, too.

Why not just lynch Sentran? Your plan seems to hinge on him being the last killer. But if he is, we should just lynch him. Then we can take our time lynching any other anti-town players that may remain. No need for a vig.

[Elethiomel]

And just to be clear, I am perfectly open to hearing you out, TGC. That's why I unvoted. I just don't think it's a good plan, unless there's something more to it, that I'm missing.

[Sentran]

TGC, all you did by redirecting my actions is remove any chance I had of clearing myself. I tried to send a fake idol, but my choice (according to you) was redirected to 3iff. Now in the face of a double claim, I appear the guilty party. I have no knowledge of the subject matter aside from what people have shared, and a useless ability. I am the best choice for a lynch.
_________________
Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Elethiomel]

So you don't want a second chance to prove your ability?

[Sentran]

I would love a second chance. However, seeing as how my ability is restricted to night, and unless I remain unmolested tonight by the players who are CONVINCED that I am scum, it will not work. Therefore, as a townie with no appreciable ability, I remain the most likely lynch candidate. Besides, it will give my words some weight and help direct the town better in the few days to come.
_________________
Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[Zag]

Amb, would you please relate exactly what happened w.r.t. the fake idol and your plans? You said that Eleth gave you one, which I assume means that the mod sent you a note to that effect. Did it arrive during the day or did it not arrive until night? (Without quoting, of course) what did the note say?

You said that you then "used it" on someone else, and you've gone on to say that if you get another one and use it on me, that will tell you something. I assume that you expect that a townie will get some notice of it, but a scum would not. Since your first recipient hasn't come forward, his lack of comment will indicate his guilt. Is that it? What, then?

======================================
TGC's tale about being a redirector seems reasonable, since we have to explain 3iff's death somehow. On the other hand, Amb got his immunity somehow, and we don't, I guess, believe that it is at all related to the fake idol he got from Eleth. Is there a chance that he got some protection which is so powerful it caused the scum's night kill to be reflected? I am rather doubting this, because UMonk posted that Amb was immune pretty early in the night, probably before the scum had selected their target. (This is speaking from experience in other games; I know that the scum like to deliberate before committing. Even if they are down, now, to only one, they weren't before 3iff was killed.)

So, in spite of his earlier lies, I'm inclined to believe TGC. Amb's confirmation of Eleth seems reasonably solid, though I'm not convinced that fake idols really makes sense as a townie trait. If Amb has a plan involving the other fake idol that he thinks will reveal another scum, I'm all for giving him a chance to play that out. Eleth, have you / do you plan to give Amb another fake idol to let him execute his plan? If not, what's your reason not to?

[Amb]

THe idol arrived straight away, once the mod got round to sending it. I then used it immediately on a particular player. Said player appears to not have known that I did that. That may be because the idol is fake. Or the player may be scum, and assumed that the 'immunity' gained was from their own team. There is a distinct statement that a player made, that will be deceptive , if it turns out they were notified by the mod about immunity. So that's what I need to prove. I was trying to avoid said player catching on and giving them time to undo the damage.

But it's all moot if they don't recieve a PM.

[Elethiomel]

[Amb]

I realise you won't know that. That's why I want to try it. If it happens how I want, I've caught a scum. If it doesn't, then said person might still be scum but I'd have no evidence.

[Zag]

Amb, when Eleth sent you the idol, did it say anything about it being a fake? Did it say that it was from Eleth?

[Elethiomel]

Alright Amb, it's sent.

[Captin Aniima]

Vote sentran

I don’t think that we should give Sentran a second chance. I didn’t want to give you a chance in the first place IMO we should have lynched you. I refuse to back off even if it gets me lynched because I don’t trust your motives.

First you name claimed the same as someone else. This is just a rehash nothing really new here but still skeevy.

You pointed out a vig in your post after night and it leads me to believe that you knew there was a vigilante and you would only know that if you were mafia and were considering a vigilante as the other killer.

These were things I noticed off the bat so I decided to look at some isolated votes for you and after the people pointed out a big issue with the names I noticed a major flip in the behavior. You went from defending yourself majorly to "well you could lynch me but know that I’m town... but on the bright side you would know the liar." That behavior always comes off as super skeevy to me. To me it says "if I try to put up a solid wall now then everyone will lynch me but it I guilt them they won’t lynch me" you shouldn’t have to worry if you’re not scum.
You aren’t exactly the first pick like you keep saying because I’m pretty sure that other people suspect that El is scum and not you. Really by exhibiting this behavior you are pulling people to vote you.
On another matter I was thinking about what Mackay said about baiting her to join in on Ambs opinion so I took a look at it an suddenly found myself laughing.
The reason why is because when Sentran first set up fireside mafia we had one game where the votes were locked. I was town with ohcapt and Garou and spyrl were mafia. As expected garou and spyrl were voting together and I was voting with ohcapt. Sentran decided in order to get it moving on to the next day he opened it to using what we could to sway others. Me being the youngest in the group I was first and Garou happened to notice I had been eating a lot of snacks so he passed me a bagg of grapes and said “join the dark side” so thinking that it was a joke I took the grapes and switched my vote to their side (they were voting for ohcapt). Town lost and the game ended.
So when I thought about Mackay claiming that Amb was baiting here I laughed thinking of Garou’s comment of “join the dark side”.
All jokes set aside though to me trying to bait another player by saying you wont vote for that person is a very scummy move.
Fos: Amb
_________________
Just sayin... The sky is blue.

[Captin Aniima]

sorry forgot to bold

vote sentran

fos amb
_________________
Just sayin... The sky is blue.

[The Great Crep'er]

Going to make less work for the mod...

Night Choices:
1. Deception -> Captain Aniima
2. Mackay -> Captain Aniima
3. Sentran -> 3iff

[Amb]

Recieved the idol. It can only be played at night. Since the player in question appears not to know I used the idol on them, it clearly did nothing. So I'm wrong. Moving right along....

[Amb]

That probably makes no sense at all.

I got the last idol and used it on a player, who appears to not even know I tried it.

I got the new idol, and tried to use it during the day. Mod says "Cant be used at day".

I think I'm seeing phantoms again, so I'm dropping this line of argument.

[Elethiomel]

TGC, I'm still waiting for you to elaborate on your plan and explain why we shouldn't lynch Sentran today.

Who do you suggest we lynch instead?

[The Great Crep'er]

[The Great Crep'er]

Just saw your post, Eleth, let me get back to you after a quick re-read.

[The Great Crep'er]

By process of elimination:
-Obviously today's lynch shouldn't be anywhere close to Elethiomel
-Due to Amb's immunity, he won't be going anywhere either.
-I obviously wouldn't advocate my own lynch, so don't be expecting any arguments from me towards that.
-Not Sentran - due to my powers I feel like he is already done for.

That leaves us with 4 potential candidates: Zag, Mackay, Jedo, and Captain Aniima.

Captain Aniima - Would be a good utilitarian lynch. If only because her absences and recent Sentran wagoning (which at that point, everyone was doing) has made her non-apparent. Not on the radar either way. And that is something that is somewhat disappointing for Day 4. If troubles continue to persist for Aniima, I don't see any reason scum could come up with for killing her off. This makes her a very attractive option to let slip to Day 5 or 6 (if we get that far) when town will most likely be in a clutch position. This is the lynch I would favor the most. If only out of principle. Seeing as how I can't read her to be town, and seems to have been invisible for very critical junctures in this game, I wouldn't want her to be the ailment of town in the end. If scum or cult have to win, I would want the active, participating ones to win. Just a wildcard factor that to me is more dangerous than a scumcard. A roleclaim or the natural passage of time with Aniima focusing on more people than the already worked through Sentran would be possible factors in swaying me.
Vote: Captain Aniima

Mackay - This would be the lynch I favor the least It's hard to explain why. I feel like she has been one of the more sensible players here and has been open to explaining her suspicions and towntells through a variety of words. A sharp contrast to those who play a bit more close to the chest, i.e. "X is scummy". At least in my interactions with her she has come across as genuinely analytical and not filled with different motives for getting people off. I know I myself have made some slip-ups and errors and other involuntary actions that have kicked up the notches on my scumdar. Mackay pointed those out, and with, what seemed like no provocation shrank away from it by thinking it through some more. I think if she were scum or cult just trying to get people off, she could have very easily composed a wagon against me. (At least pre-Bobgate) Reconsideration might be in order if all other options just seem to fall through, but for now I feel like Mackay has earned her towncard. I also sympathize with the frustration that recently ensued (When I was more active) when she was arguing with Amb about why Deception should be spared and rm gone after. There's been no obstruction of the truth thus far.

Jedo/Zag - I'm torn between, I'll explain why in a moment, just want to get this post in before a potential hammer comes along.

[The Great Crep'er]

(Interesting note: I found it pretty funny that even though a scum - rm - claimed a fake role as opposed to his real one, people still found it as scummy.)

Jedo/Zag - It essentially comes down to a cointoss for me. Bad practice, I know. But in the event no one gets on a utilitarian lynch and moves onto a game of pure, hardcore analysis, I'm undecided between the two and will likely have to pick one of the "scum read justifications" I have for one of them, out of a hat. Any votes for Mackay or I, I will obviously not follow today.

Jedo - Has not posted for a week thus far. He is an odd duck to me. He was very patient with Deception's antics and even went to campaign for him by stating that it was merely a Deception-esque style of play he was taking on and that he was not in fact scum. Turned out to be true. Either a good judge of character or a baddy looking to get town points in. For now, I am leaning towards the former. Then, in the midst of his lectures about how people should stray from the boxes they have put themselves in their playstyle and views, he stayed hard on the course for lynching rm, stating with vehemence that his non-active behavior was scummy. It wasn't a lynch with a mechanical background like "regardless of whether he is scummy or not, his behavior makes him unattainable and that is dangerous for town" but more just a "flat out scum". A sharp contrast from his issues of warnings on flexibility and considering every option. (Not to mention, preferential treatment, while Cap'n is non-present all the while and awakes when noticed) And, lo and behold, he was right! How did he manage that so effectively? How was he so sure and so correct? That is the type of behavior that makes me think twice about Jedo. The waffling between his rm votes didn't help much either.

In any event, when Jedo does come back, I feel like he should at least hear out my reasons for a Cap'n lynch and consider it. If not, it should be explained why he gives preferential treatment amongst non-posters.

The fussing with things like how the two of Eleth and Sent both claimed the same role bothers me as well. Why not show more of a peep of why they both claimed Bob? For starters anyways...

And Jedo also wanted an answer of why we should believe Crowley will be giving out fake idols. Not far from the show, my friend. In Survivor Gabon, Bob gave a fake idol to Randy (under the instruction of Sugar) and he played it to much humiliation. (Upon further thinking, that question may have already been answered, forgive me if it was...)

And now for Zag. (Bear with me as I break these up into readable posts)

[Mackay]

Amb: so what's the go with your night-immunity then? I'm really confused about the transfer/usage of idols. I thought Eleth's might've turned out to be real, as it sounded like he was saying that his idols could be played during the day for use at night - although that might only have been based upon the information from the first couple of posts. Now it sounds like that wasn't the case.

TGC: Is Amb immune today? Not that it matters, we still probably shouldn't lynch him.

I'm keeping up with the thread, but only halfway through a reread. (I've been on the forums a lot these last couple of days, but haven't really focused on mafia until I started reading yesterday.) I'm trying not to get all conspiracy-theorist but anyone who's ever played mafia with me before knows that that is a losing battle. Rupert as redirector makes absolutely no sense to me. Rupert as paranoid townie makes perfect sense to me. Why does Sentran want to get lynched, and Creper not want to lynch him? Argh.

[Sentran]

I'm quite curious about Eleth's "fake" idols as well. So far the only person given idols has turned up with an immunity. Gee, could Eleth be lying about her role name and the idols? Is it maybe possible that Eleth in actuality played a REAL idol on Amb?
_________________
Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland

[The Great Crep'er]

[Mackay]

Incidentally, there have been a couple of things in the reread that have made me want to go straight-up Lynch All Liars. It's one rule I am normally extremely rigid about, it's only the lateness at this point that has stopped me from instavoting. The problem is, while there are individual clues that make it not necessarily incorrect to vote for TGC, it's still based largely on overarching out-of-game principles - something I yelled at Jedo1 for doing earlier.

Seriously, though, in general, if you let people get away with lying, you lose the town's most important weapon against mafia. What's the point in trying to catch people in lies and contradictions if everyone is doing it to save their own skins, to the detriment of the town? For example, because TGC's first role claim makes more sense to me than his second one, there are a bunch of additional possibilities I have to consider.
- What if he is actually just a vengeful townie (I said "paranoid townie" in the last post, my mistake) who was targeted by 3iff last night? They can sometimes kill someone who comes for them at night, right? Maybe he thinks he has a good read on either Sentran or Elethiomel and is trying to pull off some heroic gambit. The normal argument against this would be "That's dumb, why would a townie feel the need to make stuff up to serve his individual idea of what is good for the town?" But unfortunately, he has already claimed to have done just that. Why should I believe him now? This would never have even come into my head if he had been forthright.
- What if "Rupert Boneham" was a mafia safe claim and TGC, as a big Survivor fan, came up with the most fitting ability-claim possible for it at the time, and is now trying to execute a gambit because he has seen the town's resistance to lynching liars who say they did it 'for the good of the town'?
- What if he actually thinks Sentran is town and is lying to us to keep him alive? (Why not? He's already claimed that he is willing to lie to support his idea of what is best for us.)

Every person who claims to be lying "for the good of the town" is stripping the town of its weapons, making it more difficult for town to win. Coming from an actual townie it's poor play, and indicates a person with no confidence in their own ability to argue a case. Bah. (OK so I'm still cranky at Deception.) I'm not even remotely convinced that TGC is pro-town, at this point. I felt pretty good about him yesterday. Bah, this keeps happening with the players I'm starting to trust.

Bah.

*previews, sees TGC's post*

But why do you claim that is going to work? SURELY, given that you have laid out your alleged plan in the open, the mafia wouldn't send Sentran to do the kills unless he is the only one left. You handwaved this away earlier, and I'd like a decent response. If you are telling the truth about your ability it makes more sense to lynch Sentran, because if he is mafia and he IS the only one left that is a win for us. If you're telling the truth we should use your power as a cop investigation instead, and have a chance at turning someone else's kill against themselves while lynching a suspected mafia. The plan you have laid out both makes no sense as a pro-town course of action, and requires us to trust you. I can't go along with it.

[Zag]

[Mackay]

[Zag]

Except that we need some explanation for why 3iff died last night, and why no townie did. TGC's reason explains both pretty well. In the absence of anyone else being able to say something about at least one of those anomalies, his reason is the best explanation.

[Amb]

Lynch Sentran, and then Lynch Mackay.

She defended her scum buddy rm like crazy. And now she is dead in the water, she attacks the person who claims to have killed the mafiaete. She is simply trying to spread doubt on everything.

[Mackay]

I did laugh that we took the same ideas and ran to completely opposite conclusions.

The simplest possible explanation for the lack of a kill is that there is still a doctor out there. I've had a couple of other thoughts about possibilities too, but I don't think a doc-protect is unreasonable. I've no idea about 3iff, other than a possible 'reflected' kill off of one specific character who might fit the type. That would be a horribly overpowered role, though. A vig-type role is possible too, though there's only been one player reaction (other than TGC's) that has leaned me that way so far.

The more I think about it the more I think this was a spur-of-the-moment claim. It took TGC several posts to come out with it. It was less than four hours between his first mention of a possible vig and his actual claim, which is not indicative of someone hoping to bait another player into claiming vig, as TGC claimed he was (the behaviour is more consistent with a snap decision to pre-empt a vig claim). If he's with Sentran, it would also explain Sentran being all "no really, I am the best lynch" - either as a way to confirm his teammate by bussing himself or, more likely, just a gentle redirection as an indication to his teammate that he thinks he is on the wrong track. I can't think why else he would be claiming that he is a good lynch, especially if he is scum.

[The Great Crep'er]

[The Great Crep'er]

[Mackay]

Whoops. My previous post was in reference to Zag.

[Mackay]

Argh, I can't keep up. Here is a quick response before I read and respond properly.

[Mackay]

[The Great Crep'er]

1. If you are going to be a statistician, you may as well show statistics. (This isn't even considering all the other due courses that town could take to hunt down mafia as well as, y'know taking some flippin' accountability as a flawed town) Even maintaining a consistent role wouldn't have removed the slight chance that you may have doubted it. The difference here is that I am being honest with my strategy and shedding light on the mystery for the town that is the night. And even though I provide this explanation to you, you still somehow insistently take on your excuse for why the way things went down the way they did last night. And you don't even fully believe it yourself! (Self-admitted) Who hasn't claimed so far? You, Amb, and Jedo. I'm not hearing any other stories.

2. I said that because there was no visibly apparent source of malice in my claim. I didn't go up and say, like a classic 1940s movie villain "Ooh, hee hee, yes I lied to mislead ya all!" my goal was to mislead the mafia. That was my intent. If a deceived town happens to be a byproduct, well that's just too bad. I'm sorry.

3. This is a bit of semantics that you just can't seem to drop. When I say "deceivers" I mean people who intentionally deceive like MNOWAX. When I say liars, I mean people like myself who skew the truth or omit truths - some for good reasons, but obviously you can't seem to forge a grey area, which is a bit unsettling. I never planned it either until I made the fateful night action. Obviously if this was TGC's world, I would be pulling the strings to spare Sentran, but that was never going to happen with this town who can't seem to diversify their efforts in lynching (Even though when I WANTED to lynch one of Sentran and Eth, people just couldn't seem to get off this one dude, just because he lied. And look what happened!). I see this as a fault in even myself. Every single time, the wagon has been driven by a group of people who have thoroughly analyzed one person but have barely scratched the surface as a whole.

4. Then what is the point of lynching me today?

5. You don't play like that - you make up tales that there are docs out there, roleblockers, etc. You even pulled out some cockamamie role description about a role that shoots back and survives and a vig explanation as a backup to explain 3iff's death, when not one person has stepped up so far and also taken credit for killing him and sparing you of one more mafia to lynch. You're basing your distrust of a role mechanic that, not only you yourself are unsure of, but that I haven't seen before.

And I would expect more from a consistent player of Amb's games which have had more f-ed up roles than a German fairy tale (In a good way of course). What is it about a redirector that makes you shout "PREPOSTEROUS!"

6. And aye, there's the rub. ASSuming. The thing is, my plan, no matter what would be conducive to at least "trying" to rub out an expanding cult or a stationary one. If we hit mafia, we're that much closer to one mafia. With your option, it is passing up the golden opportunity of a DOUBLE KILL power for the town in the terms of a public forum lynch, which town would have to do later on anyways if Sent were not the only baddy out there. If Sent is lynched, and is not the only one, you've effectively thrown me away (nothing short of a lucky break could get me to redirect the mafia kill again) and partly sabotaged the town. My power is something that would result in not only a failed mafia kill but a dead mafia the next night. (If it works out)

I am going to take a slight intermission. The fact remains, however, that with everyone having power claimed except for you, Jedo, and Captain, to the outside viewer you've either effectively given the mafia a lead as to what their identities may be (since you refuse to support your own allegations) or you have no explanation for why the two events subsequently occurred last night and thus have no grounds for a case. I think you know which one I support.

Until tomorrow...

[The Great Crep'er]