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The Great Crep'er
2% Spambot
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 Posted: Mon Aug 06, 2012 6:49 pm Post subject: 961 |
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| Elethiomel wrote: |
Why would you die tonight, if we lynch Sentran today? I thought the central assumption in your plan was that he's the last killer. |
When the power worked last FMPOV, Sentran was not the only scum. So that doesn't have to be the case in order for the plan to work.
| Quote: |
| It's bizarre how you keep arguing that we urgently need to decide who else is scummy, as if lynching Sentran would be some kind of cop-out. If anything is a cop-out, it's letting the double Bob claim remain unresolved for yet another day. You now say "we don't know who's scum out of the two". But if you're telling the truth, there is pretty overwhelming evidence that the scum is him, not me. Why don't you "sack up" and act on that evidence? |
Because I have already explained the multiple benefits that come from letting me control Sentran. A lynch past Sentran is, odds are, what you'll have to do anyways yet town consistently and willingly goes into this ignorance about it. There's no "sack-up" in this scenario. I just want one lynched scum now, one dead scum tonight, and no dead townies tomorrow and there's a good chance it puts us ahead of the effing schedule. But there's no chance for it if we're too scared to even try!
At this point I am just rehashing myself, so if town continues to keep ignoring this option simply because of how daunting it is, then I don't think having a conversation about it is going to solve anything at this point. Some of you have proved to be pretty damn near stubborn about it when your reasons for putting the plan in doubt (save Mackay) have been from your own paranoid minds. It's coming down now to an assumption that we have to lynch Sentran due to it being a lylo position which is the only possible reason I can come up with for town being this uncomfortable of just searching outside a bit. And that's unfair when you barely scratch the surface for all total scumreads.
If you don't believe me, fine, I get it. But if that's not the case for you, you could at least do me a little favor and forge plans ahead for who you would possibly FoS behind Sentran and there's no reason on earth you can't do both.
| Undercover Monk wrote: |
If no wagon picks up steam in the next few days I will consider a deadline. |
I thought deadlines were based on post activity... |
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The Great Crep'er
2% Spambot
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| Posted: Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:15 pm Post subject: 962 |
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| Mackay wrote: |
| Creper: You are again having arguments against yourself. I've got no idea what you are talking about so it's safe to assume that I wasn't addressing you. |
The whole saying "I'm not going to talk to you" thing you were all peeved about. I just assumed you were misinterpreting what I said (based on the "TGC copping a bit too") and wanted to address it because I couldn't find
a version readily apparent in Amb's posts. I always want to talk, I just don't want it to degrade into a Harvardized version of "Is so" "Nuh-uh".
| Quote: |
The reason several of your "arguments" toward me have gone unanswered as yet are:
a) I wanted you to address the likelihood of the specific game mechanic first. You have, sort of, and I'll most likely respond to that in my next reply to this thread, when I get to it.
b) I was away from my computer for several days. I posted about this in the thread.
c) When I came back, I had received votes. Addressing that fact takes higher priority for me than meticulously sifting through your posts trying to figure out the point. |
a) Really don't know what to say to this. Do you want me to set up a scatter plot? It seems very "History of GL Mafia" and while informative, can be very exhaustive to town's efforts.
b) No big.
c) A bit of a cold description, but okay.
| Quote: |
| You are acting like a petulant child. Your last post is essentially "I'm taking my toys and going home". For someone who said they were willing to listen to the town's opinions of his plan, you sure are throwing a hell of a tantrum about people not agreeing to let Sentran survive for another night. |
Because I feel like the rebuttals (other than yours) just haven't cut the mustard. I'm mostly being faced with problems that can easily be remedied if you at least follow in a general direction of my plan and talk with the people who haven't claimed yet about their role. We are close to bordering in on a "move it or lose it" scenario just by the nature of how many people we have left. I feel like the plan I've forged at least has a decent shot at preventing any town deaths tonight and this is an aspect that has barely been considered. If we lynch Sentran, I most likely die tonight considering the nature of my power role. That or make a decision tonight that either ensues in the entire town being pissed off at me or some "lightning strikes the same place twice" occurrence that even I don't hold out the most hope for (and I'm the one orchestrating this thing here) because we were lucky to get the one 3iff death in the first place.
| Quote: |
| I hope you don't interpret that as an attack on your character - it seems to me that you take arguments very personally. Given my aggressive style of arguing and my annoyance with your posting, I'm a little concerned that I'm going to make you actively dislike me, and I'd rather that not be the case. However, the above is how I feel you are behaving in this instance. Throwing a hissy fit because the town isn't going to fall into line behind you after you displayed a willingness to mislead them "for the greater good" isn't going to help you achieve your ends, whether pro-town or not. |
I feel like this takes my arguments at a more emotional level than addressing their fundamentals. |
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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine
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| Posted: Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:15 pm Post subject: 963 |
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For goodness' sake, do I have to self-vote to get myself killed in this game?
Fine, I'll lay the "two Bobs" argument to rest. I lied. I'm not Bob, I'm Russell. I'm Mafia. Go ahead and lynch me already.
Do I have an ulterior motive for wanting to be lynched today? Of course not.
_________________
Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland |
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The Great Crep'er
2% Spambot
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| Posted: Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:25 pm Post subject: 964 |
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| Sentran wrote: |
For goodness' sake, do I have to self-vote to get myself killed in this game?
Fine, I'll lay the "two Bobs" argument to rest. I lied. I'm not Bob, I'm Russell. I'm Mafia. Go ahead and lynch me already.
Do I have an ulterior motive for wanting to be lynched today? Of course not. |
Things were most likely going that way anyway. Not sure what all the aggression is about, could have just sat back.
But, while you're here and on the path of confession, do you mind telling us whether or not I can manipulate the mafia kill by choosing you?  |
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The Great Crep'er
2% Spambot
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| Posted: Mon Aug 06, 2012 10:14 pm Post subject: 965 |
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| Russell is definitely GF in my eyes. We have to think about the type of power we can ALL juice from his position. This is no longer about a "town" or "scum" situation, this is about strategy for the town to get a mile out of an inch. |
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Zag
Unintentionally offensive old coot
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| Posted: Mon Aug 06, 2012 10:16 pm Post subject: 966 |
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Well, well. So much for my scum-sniffer, at least with respect to Sentran.
So, is his motivation to be killed that you are completely correct, TGC, and you do control the scum kill as long as he is alive? Frankly, if we knew that for sure, it would be worth it to keep him alive -- the best they could hope for overnight is for him to kill himself, because skipping the kill leaves them in perpetual limbo.
His only other motivation for his admission is that he is just tired of playing now that he's been found out. I would think, though, that Sentran would know how capricious our games can be, and sometimes what seems clear one day is forgotten on the next. If, for instance, they can control who does the kill, then wouldn't it make sense for them just to go along with your plan during the day, hoping to discredit you the next day? And I don't think Sentran is a quitter: if he's pushing to get lynched, I would think it's because his team gets some advantage from it.
It is just so delicious to consider that the town redirector gets to control the scum's night kill, that I hate to give that up. Consider that if TGC is right, not only do we kill a scum tonight, but also they don't get to kill one of us! If we pick a different lynch target, even if we're wrong, we're no worse off than if we had lynched Sentran and then the scum were free to lynch whom they like.
====
TGC, why Captin A? I apologize if you've stated your reasons already, but maybe you could post a concise recap? Since no one seems to agree with me about Mackay, I'm willing to admit that I might be wrong. (I still think she's guilty, but I now give quite a bit more weight to Eleth's words, who was unconvinced by my evidence.) I think that we now have a core of Amb, Eleth, and TGC who are pretty confirmed town (and me, maybe a little less so). I guess I'm willing to go along with the majority of those three, but not until we have all considered TGC's plan and understood his reason for wanting to go after Capt A.
_________________
| Death Mage wrote: |
| I couldn't agree with you more, Zag. |
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Amb
Amb the Hitched.
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| Posted: Mon Aug 06, 2012 11:51 pm Post subject: 967 |
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| Quote: |
For goodness' sake, do I have to self-vote to get myself killed in this game?
Fine, I'll lay the "two Bobs" argument to rest. I lied. I'm not Bob, I'm Russell. I'm Mafia. Go ahead and lynch me already.
Do I have an ulterior motive for wanting to be lynched today? Of course not.
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Why in the blue blazes would you do this? You actually had a chance of riding out another day.... albeit small. But to surrender like that... wow. |
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Zag
Unintentionally offensive old coot
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 1:13 am Post subject: 968 |
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As I said, it could very well be that TGC has called it exactly right, and as long as Sentran is alive TGC gets to control where the scum kill goes. If that's the case, the Sentran will really want to be lynched, so the scum will get to control their own kill again. I think that the chance of this is powerful enough that we should let TGC play out his plan.
_________________
| Death Mage wrote: |
| I couldn't agree with you more, Zag. |
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Amb
Amb the Hitched.
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 1:22 am Post subject: 969 |
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| In that case, I would be very much in favour of lynching Mackay. |
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The Great Crep'er
2% Spambot
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 4:16 am Post subject: 970 |
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| Zag wrote: |
TGC, why Captin A? I apologize if you've stated your reasons already, but maybe you could post a concise recap? |
Here are most (if not all) of my Aniima lynch quotes:
| The Great Crep'er wrote: |
1. In favor of a Captain Aniima lynch, if only because she has been nothing to town almost this entire game. The latest post of hers is a bit comical because it's almost as if things have taken just a polar turn between her and I, in terms of who gives fluff and who gives considerate thoughts. I think her reason for a town read on Jedo is illegitimate (It's the same one Deception had on D2), she obviously neglected to read the first post and some of the more recent posts if she can't tell rm is dead and is of no value to speculate on anymore, her town read on me is nothing more than a shorthand description and is not supported with one trace of my posts, and I find it a little ridiculous that the people she had no read on are some of the most vocal posters in this thread.
She is a player in this game, where it is readily apparent, that has no desire/no time to play it thoroughly and yet she is still here, all these weeks later. Fascinating. With no budge from the mod and an insistence on her part that she stay, I am not confident about the gamble we are about to take by either letting Captain Aniima stay or jettisoning her out via lynch. (Something tells me the scum aren't going to help us out on this one --- she is a very easy player to play against as her present is scarce and her current content is irresponsible) |
| The Great Crep'er wrote: |
Captain Aniima - Would be a good utilitarian lynch. If only because her absences and recent Sentran wagoning (which at that point, everyone was doing) has made her non-apparent. Not on the radar either way. And that is something that is somewhat disappointing for Day 4. If troubles continue to persist for Aniima, I don't see any reason scum could come up with for killing her off. This makes her a very attractive option to let slip to Day 5 or 6 (if we get that far) when town will most likely be in a clutch position. This is the lynch I would favor the most. If only out of principle. Seeing as how I can't read her to be town, and seems to have been invisible for very critical junctures in this game, I wouldn't want her to be the ailment of town in the end. If scum or cult have to win, I would want the active, participating ones to win. Just a wildcard factor that to me is more dangerous than a scumcard. A roleclaim or the natural passage of time with Aniima focusing on more people than the already worked through Sentran would be possible factors in swaying me. |
| The Great Crep'er wrote: |
And even though some of you won't be akin to the idea of a Captain Aniima lynch, I still worry about having her around. For someone who's favorite catchphrase is "I won't be able to post for this week" she has stuck around a remarkably long time without word of a potential replacement from the mod or her. She has done so KNOWING that her inactivity has come at the ruin of town. If I were in her position, I'd notify the mod and amscray, to do so would be better than giving the town a significantly smaller supply of posts for the town to work with. But considering she has not done so far, makes me think there is a bit of value in this candidate's role. Not the good kind. |
And to give the Reader's Digest version:
I think Captain Aniima has made a terrible (no offense) turn out on the duration of the game but especially as of late. Because of this, I have no idea why there has not been a solid attempt to replace her the whole game (either by the mod or by her) and why Aniima did not once ask to be replaced or change her habits despite the cripple her persistent absence has caused on our reads of her (or at least mine). The two latest posts show that she is not showing all of her reads when she does post (or edits her reads without fully acknowledging that her opinion has changed) and that her reading habits of what she has missed are so ill that she is posting haphazardly without a lot of knowledge. Frankly, I think the latest post with the reads of hers is total BS and I do not know why she feels the compulsion to go and make a post like that instead of being honest with the town about how much she's read. You can read the post for yourself, and make your own call.
I am open to other ideas and potential town reads of Aniima (because at this point, all mine are blown away in the wind) but my main priority right now is to send Sentran into the night to milk him for all he is worth. I have no idea why a scum member would self-admit like that and not support the "anti-Sentran" movement unless there was a fate worse than death. And based on previous events, I have good reason to believe that I am a part of that fate. |
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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 4:38 am Post subject: 971 |
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Oh yeah, Vote: Captin Aniima
_________________
Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland |
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The Great Crep'er
2% Spambot
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:34 am Post subject: 972 |
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I'm sorry, this is all a venting stage for me, really. I don't mean to be hostile or jerky if it comes out this way.
| Captin Aniima wrote: |
I don’t think that we should give Sentran a second chance. I didn’t want to give you a chance in the first place IMO we should have lynched you. I refuse to back off even if it gets me lynched because I don’t trust your motives. |
That isn't the nature of the plan. No one here is giving Sentran a second chance. This is about manipulating his power to take a big ol' bite out of the scum player population. I have really no idea where this interpretation came from.
| Quote: |
| First you name claimed the same as someone else. This is just a rehash nothing really new here but still skeevy. |
This is common knowledge in the town. There's no need to post it.
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| You pointed out a vig in your post after night and it leads me to believe that you knew there was a vigilante and you would only know that if you were mafia and were considering a vigilante as the other killer. |
You had me and you lost me. Are you saying that town can't have the consideration for a possible vig? Because Mackay also posted out loud speculation. Maybe you should be hauling her off to the gallows as well? And how are "considering a vigilante as the other killer" and "knowing there is a vigilante" the same thing? Furthermore, what makes knowing about the vig a mafia quality?
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| These were things I noticed off the bat so I decided to look at some isolated votes for you and after the people pointed out a big issue with the names I noticed a major flip in the behavior. You went from defending yourself majorly to "well you could lynch me but know that I’m town... but on the bright side you would know the liar." That behavior always comes off as super skeevy to me. To me it says "if I try to put up a solid wall now then everyone will lynch me but it I guilt them they won’t lynch me" you shouldn’t have to worry if you’re not scum. |
Are you [expletive] joking?? That's like grade school mafia logic stuff, thinking that mafia are the only ones who have to worry. We have the same stuff at stake. If we get lynched, the opposing side is that much closer to winning. Why should he "not worry" as town? What gives him that comfort? Do you need to fill us in on something, perhaps? 
And that paraphrased version of Sentran you pass off is doing nothing more than stating the [expletive] obvious, and yet it manages to get so convoluted in your translation that it speaks an emotional appeal to avoid a lynch that could be as much town as mafia.
| Quote: |
| You aren’t exactly the first pick like you keep saying because I’m pretty sure that other people suspect that El is scum and not you. |
Details, Cap'n.
| Quote: |
On another matter I was thinking about what Mackay said about baiting her to join in on Ambs opinion so I took a look at it an suddenly found myself laughing.
The reason why is because when Sentran first set up fireside mafia we had one game where the votes were locked. I was town with ohcapt and Garou and spyrl were mafia. As expected garou and spyrl were voting together and I was voting with ohcapt. Sentran decided in order to get it moving on to the next day he opened it to using what we could to sway others. Me being the youngest in the group I was first and Garou happened to notice I had been eating a lot of snacks so he passed me a bagg of grapes and said “join the dark side” so thinking that it was a joke I took the grapes and switched my vote to their side (they were voting for ohcapt). Town lost and the game ended.
So when I thought about Mackay claiming that Amb was baiting here I laughed thinking of Garou’s comment of “join the dark side”.
All jokes set aside though to me trying to bait another player by saying you wont vote for that person is a very scummy move.
Fos: Amb |
Cool story, bro.
In all seriousness, this cross-reference meta where you try to use the real life to apply to a GL game with a trait that isn't exclusively used by scum (as I have been, myself, trying to push people into a non-Sentran lynch) just isn't right. You're using Garou's behavior to judge Amb's. At least be fair to the guy and use meta arguments when the example involves Amb.
| Captin Aniima wrote: |
I know I am trying awfully hard and because of it I may be lynched or killed tonight so I went through and ISO'd everyone. This is the list I came up with. |
This could not be further from the truth. Your reputation in this game stems from your flaky presence throughout and your lack of accountability for it.
| Quote: |
others whom I had no read on
Mackay
Zag
amb |
You have got to be kidding me. Mackay, Amb and Zag have been by far the most prevalent posters in the game. Somehow you can't come up with a read on any of them? Any hint at a possible try? I don't think you go through 4 pages of posts without an inkling of what role they might be.
And what happened to your FoS of Amb? Did that not factor into your read? Did it sprout wings and fly away?
| Quote: |
| I'm not that good at posting my thoughts and I'm sorry about that because I know you guys need more to go off but I don’t really know how to organize my thoughts in a way that you can understand -hence crappy and more often then that confusing posts-. I'll try my best to say a little bit about everyone that are on my defined lists. I hope it makes sense. |
I don't know why you acknowledge that we "need more to go off" and then make no mention of possibly bettering it or at least posting on a more routine basis.
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| Sentran- scummy hes jumpy in votes, his behavior posts wise takes a major flip when hes caught. his playing as a town doesn’t match up with his game play now. |
| Quote: |
| Ralphmerridew- posts for a little bit then stops posting until attacked then puts in rehashes of others opinions then disappears without making an attempt to try and post more often. |
The man has since been replaced and had his replacement killed. Why did you phrase this post in a manner like he was still alive and observations of him were somehow relevant? How did you miss the post last night confirming his death? Heck, how did you miss the first post of the thread that was edited to put him on the corpse list? I am seriously starting to question your reading strategies (if any are being employed)...
The comical thing is, you could replace "Ralphmerridew" with "Captain Aniima" in that fragment and nobody would notice the difference.
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| TGC- long posts but going through I realize there was a lot of fluff then a change from fluff to info. |
Vague. Very vague. A stray observation without the slightest bit of evidence or opinion of content. If you are painting me as town off that basis, I can give you plenty of better reasons.
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| jedo- I don’t think he would be coming back to life if he wasn’t in the same side as before. UM doesn’t seem to want either side to have an advantage (shown when jadesmar was removed). |
This was already brought up by Deception on the start of Day 2 and promptly shot down with good reason. I don't even know what to think of "(shown when jadesmar was removed)". How does that support your argument again?
Having a townread on someone based on one ill-advised outguess of the mod is just...it's just stupid, I'm sorry to be that mean, but it is. If you're going to form a read on someone, you can't have mod action determine their alignment. UM went forward himself to dispel Deception of this "conviction".
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| El- this one is just a gut feeling I seriously never doubted that he was town from the start but I really don’t have much to go off of. its just a vibe. |
You have his claim. You have his posts. You have Amb's confirmation of his ability. "I really don't have that much to go off of." Is that really your final answer? |
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The Great Crep'er
2% Spambot
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:38 am Post subject: 973 |
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Sorry, meant to delete that quote about Sentran. Now that he's self-admitted, the words, sound or not, were on target. It was a piggyback, though.  |
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Mackay
Saviour of Spiders
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 8:11 am Post subject: 974 |
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This entire day doesn't make any sense. My first impression is to halfway agree with Zag - my impression is that something has happened to make Sentran want to end the day quickly. The part that involves trusting Creper I'm not quite so keen on. If things kind of... fit the puzzle correctly I'd be down, but things aren't quite right in a way I'm having trouble translating from my mind to my keyboard tonight. Suffice it to say that this feels like an endgame-style play and I fear for the survival of the town should we misstep. The problem is, it is such a successful WIFOM that I don't know whether the misstep is to lynch Sentran or not to.
Two small quotes I'd like to see players elaborate upon:
| The Great Crep'er wrote: |
| Russell is definitely GF in my eyes. We have to think about the type of power we can ALL juice from his position. This is no longer about a "town" or "scum" situation, this is about strategy for the town to get a mile out of an inch. |
I just want to point out that you are now asserting that Sentran is the godfather as well as being the only person able to kill. I'm sure that that mechanic is not unheard of, but the things you are claiming as "definites" are starting to add up to a strange total.
Your relationship with Sentran this game is really strange and inscrutable to me. It makes me extremely uncomfortable.
| Amb wrote: |
| In that case, I would be very much in favour of lynching Mackay. |
I would like to be able to address this irrational behaviour, but it is very difficult when you are refusing to engage altogether.
Will you explain why you would like to lynch me, using arguments that aren't bald lies/haven't already been debunked in the thread? Can you, even?
I'll post more once I figure out what I think/my feelings on how we should proceed. Right now I'm bum-puzzled. It's been a long day, too, my thoughts are not at their clearest. |
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Elethiomel
Daedalian Member
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 9:00 am Post subject: 975 |
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If we don't lynch Sentran today, I think the odds are very high he'll be around tomorrow, too.
For example:
- TGC could be lying scum
- TGC could be role-blocked
- Another mafia member could perform the kill
And tomorrow, what will we do, with only 6 players left? Sentran can still vote (which he just demonstrated, and not by voting for himself, incidentally). In addition, there must be another mafia member (or we should obviously lynch him, anyway). Finally, someone was likely recruited by MNOWAX. That means town will be reduced to 3 out of 6 votes, and we will have lost control of the lynch. Even if we knew for certain that TGC was telling the truth, this is a risk we cannot afford to take.
I mean, this isn't rocket science. Lynch the scum. Doubly so, when the scum can kill you. |
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The Great Crep'er
2% Spambot
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 9:37 am Post subject: 976 |
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| Mackay wrote: |
| The Great Crep'er wrote: |
| Russell is definitely GF in my eyes. We have to think about the type of power we can ALL juice from his position. This is no longer about a "town" or "scum" situation, this is about strategy for the town to get a mile out of an inch. |
I just want to point out that you are now asserting that Sentran is the godfather as well as being the only person able to kill. I'm sure that that mechanic is not unheard of, but the things you are claiming as "definites" are starting to add up to a strange total.
Your relationship with Sentran this game is really strange and inscrutable to me. It makes me extremely uncomfortable. |
Really? I figure it's on par with posts like these...
| Mackay wrote: |
Amb: I have to say, the mention of Russell Hantz is the best reason I've heard so far for the cult and mafia to be separate. He's gotta be in the game as a straight-up evil dude, right? He would have to start as mafia or SK, he's not the cult type. |
Or the 8000 references Amb made to Coach being a bad guy role. It's not necessarily a sound theory but a guestimation based on roles, and a knowledge of Survivor History. A good deal of roles so far have been at least somewhat relevant to their Survivor name counterparts based on their characteristics. Russell was a key figure in many votes in his first two seasons. He had a god complex and was ultimately the centerpoint of a number of Survivor edits. Now what role is "head honcho" material? 
I hate to say it, but I think for your second point, I'm going to need a bit of clarity before addressing it. I feel like there is a specific point in either my interactions with Sentran or my linkings to him that you want to address.
_________________
Potato. Belgium. Eight. Random Lynch # Mafia awaits. |
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Amb
Amb the Hitched.
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:15 am Post subject: 977 |
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| Quote: |
| I mean, this isn't rocket science. Lynch the scum. Doubly so, when the scum can kill you. |
Yes. Why did I even listen to Zag's post. You are completely right. |
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The Great Crep'er
2% Spambot
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:19 am Post subject: 978 |
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| Elethiomel wrote: |
If we don't lynch Sentran today, I think the odds are very high he'll be around tomorrow, too.
For example:
- TGC could be lying scum
- TGC could be role-blocked
- Another mafia member could perform the kill
And tomorrow, what will we do, with only 6 players left? Sentran can still vote (which he just demonstrated, and not by voting for himself, incidentally). In addition, there must be another mafia member (or we should obviously lynch him, anyway). Finally, someone was likely recruited by MNOWAX. That means town will be reduced to 3 out of 6 votes, and we will have lost control of the lynch. Even if we knew for certain that TGC was telling the truth, this is a risk we cannot afford to take.
I mean, this isn't rocket science. Lynch the scum. Doubly so, when the scum can kill you. |
I think you are just insistent on coming up with alternative scenarios regardless of their likelihood to be there. I'd appreciate it if you at least gave the plan a bit more thought.
What-if scenarios:
[But, so be it. Let us probe the great, grand wonderful what-if machine. Firstly, let's go down the road of a potential lynch. Let's take you off the table, as well as Sentran and I for the plan to work. Let's take Amb and Zag off the table as their masonage counterparts have already confirmed their existence and they stand more likely to be cult than mafia. (Which would be the desired party, I believe, in your insistence.)
Now, that leaves (if you are right about there being 1 more scum and if you don't think it's me) Mackay, Jedo, and the Captain. 1 of which is mafia. Which means we stand a 1/3 chance at lynching successfully and a 2/3 chance if cult is within those ranks. To me, not exactly the end of the world. A scenario which it seems like, we would have to start pretty soon on anyways in case we messed up the first time. Pushing it further back means we limit the amount of swipes we can take in this group.
Now, let's attack it from an even baser level. Let's just table you and Sentran. We should be tabling me in order for the plan to even make sense but in the interest of keeping things baser, let's just stick to the roots. Now, out of me, Amb, Zag, Mackay, Jedo, and Captain, you could still hold firmly to your belief that there is 1 remaining scum and 1 cult. Which means 2/6. Which means you still have a 1/3 chance for lynching correctly, which becomes even greater when you subtract me (but I get the feeling you don't entirely trust me, so let's just leave it at that).
And that's not even taking into account the possibility that cult and mafia could have cross-pollinated (i.e. cult recruiting mafia).
And that's not even taking into account the fact that mafia could kill off cult or they could act against one another. There is no one saying that a cult-scum joint is likely and at the numbers you suggest now there is no way that they can both win without mafia putting an inordinate amount of trust in cult. And that is the only bad that can come from standing 3-2-1. (Don't "skew" the numbers by only highlighting town)
Essentially, you stand the same odds for nabbing scum tomorrow if you go ahead with lynching Sentran. (1/3 for the other mafia and 1/5 for lynching cult at the numbers you suggest). And if you lynch wrong then, you are still fated to that same "doomed" scenario of yours.
What my plan does is essentially pull together the efforts you would have done today on day 4 and what you'll have to do later on day 5 with a very good chance at gaining some extra time for the town which this group desperately needs.]
I don't think you've fully thought that conjured situation through, Eleth. And until you do I'm just going to poke at the flaws. You need to argue why lynching Sent is BETTER than combining efforts and getting two birds crushed to pieces with one stone.
And where the devil is Jedo? Undercover Monk, can we get a prod on him? He has not posted since two weeks ago. |
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The Great Crep'er
2% Spambot
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:22 am Post subject: 979 |
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| I wouldn't be working this hard unless I felt it was absolutely necessary to go down this path to increase the chances of town victory. |
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Amb
Amb the Hitched.
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:24 am Post subject: 980 |
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| Lynching known scum is a great way to help us to victory. Elethiomel is right, we do NOT know what the mafia have to help them out. I still dont know what a mafia flirt is. |
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The Great Crep'er
2% Spambot
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:32 am Post subject: 981 |
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| @Amb: Can you perhaps divulge with us your own theory for Sentran claiming outright? |
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Elethiomel
Daedalian Member
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 11:56 am Post subject: 982 |
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| The Great Crep'er wrote: |
| I'd appreciate it if you at least gave the plan a bit more thought. |
Well, you keep saying that, but I have stated clearly what I perceive as the flaws in your plan and you have yet to adequately address them, in my mind. I think I have been quite patient and open-minded in letting you state your case for alternative lynches. The fact is, you need an extremely compelling reason to not lynch a known mafioso, yet you keep trying to place the burden of proof on me, as if lynching Sentran is some kind of radical idea coming out of left field.
It feels like I've asked this question at least once before, so I will highlight it to make sure you don't miss it:
Are you claiming that your ability will be able to "hijack" the mafia kill, even if someone other than your target attempts to perform the kill?
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 12:48 pm Post subject: 983 |
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It's been less than two weeks, TGC. I posted in the Vacations thread overnight that I would be gone because I'm moving. I get Internet at my house tomorrow, so this post should suffice to show my presence until I'm not using my iTouch.
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Paragon Tally: 19 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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Undercover Monk
Professor Chaos
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 12:57 pm Post subject: 984 |
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I was about to quote the vacay thread but now I see jedo has spoken up in his own defense so I think TGC should be ok with that.
_________________
The Classic Blunders:
1. never get involved in a land war in Asia
2.Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line
3. Never release Peyton Manning |
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Zag
Unintentionally offensive old coot
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 1:31 pm Post subject: 985 |
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| Mackay wrote: |
| you are now asserting that Sentran is the godfather as well as being the only person able to kill. I'm sure that that mechanic is not unheard of, but the things you are claiming as "definites" are starting to add up to a strange total. |
Actually, all he's asserting is that Sentran is the one to name the scum kill, i.e. the Godfather. The most common description of redirector is that he can redirect the action of anyone whose role includes naming a name. If the godfather's role is to name the scum kill, then redirecting him redirects the scum kill. That might be all there is to it.
Admittedly, I don't think that this is the traditional interpretation of redirector w.r.t. godfather, but it is certainly a reasonable one, given a literal interpretation of that description of redirector. If, for instance, UMonk had not specified that the godfather has to name not only the victim as well as the killer (perhaps thinking that part of it was unnecessary) then redirecting the godfather would produce exactly this result. Remember, also, that they are not actual kills, but secret votes off the island, so it makes sense not to have a killer.
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| Death Mage wrote: |
| I couldn't agree with you more, Zag. |
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Zag
Unintentionally offensive old coot
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 1:38 pm Post subject: 986 |
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| Mackay wrote: |
| Will you explain why you would like to lynch me, using arguments that aren't bald lies/haven't already been debunked in the thread? Can you, even? |
Since the primary accusation against you has been from me, I know that they aren't lies, and I don't think anyone can claim they are. I, for one, do not think that you have successfully debunked them, either. You basically just denied my interpretation. That was pretty much the only avenue available to you, and is what you would have said whether I am right or wrong, so I didn't feel it needed a reply. You added something about me attacking you because I see you as a threat. That was just nonsense, but I suppose it is also understandable if you are innocent.
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| Death Mage wrote: |
| I couldn't agree with you more, Zag. |
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Mackay
Saviour of Spiders
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 2:54 pm Post subject: 987 |
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Zag, the post you just quoted was pretty clearly directed toward Amb.
I have not at any point accused you of basing your arguments against me on lies, because you are not (as far as I can tell). Amb is.
I found something that I think might be interesting, but I'm loopy from exhaustion so I'll reread my notes tomorrow and see if they make any sense then. I was only intending to skim the thread without posting before bed, but saw Zag getting sorta defensive about something that wasn't meant to be aimed at him, so I thought I should clarify. 'Night. |
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The Great Crep'er
2% Spambot
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 9:59 pm Post subject: 988 |
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| Elethiomel wrote: |
It feels like I've asked this question at least once before, so I will highlight it to make sure you don't miss it:
Are you claiming that your ability will be able to "hijack" the mafia kill, even if someone other than your target attempts to perform the kill?
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Yes. How does that suffice for you?
I have already told you based on my previous night actions and Sentran's confession that I have reason to believe that the kill is enacted by Sentran. What you have replied with are about a thousand different scenarios where you either can't trust me or that I'm misinforming myself based on evidence that is not outside your head.
I didn't address it because it was purely speculative and that it didn't even begin to incorporate why the move was so successful, why no one else has taken credit for the kill, and why Sentran has claimed despite me coming out with those plan to use him and with no campaigning for an alternative lynch. Yet you continue to insist that I might be scum or that my move may be totally discredited and that even 1/1000000000 shot that I might not succeed is a reason we must not proceed.
I have already told you the mass benefits, you have ignored them. I have already challenged people to find alternative explanations and they have failed to come up with something substantial. Like a claim, or a damned power move.
And I have already told you why we are essentially going down the same road whether we lynch Sentran or not, only that my idea has the very substantial offchance that we get to tomorrow worry-free (with 1-2 dead scum and no dead town). (Not to mention there's a big profit to be had in manipulating the mafia kill.) And somehow you refuse to address this. What gives? Do the math on your conjured scenario or don't expect to use it as a legitimate argument.
We cannot live in fear because we don't know what "extra powers" the mafia get. You can at least acknowledge the fact that lynching outside of Sentran today is essentially like lynching without Sentran tomorrow, and get the job done early.
@Jedo: Sorry, I understand now. Just was a bit confused since it wasn't posted in the game thread. 
@Mackay: You're voting me over a claimed scum, because.... |
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The Great Crep'er
2% Spambot
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:08 pm Post subject: 989 |
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| By the way, if I can't get to Sentran tonight, I will be using Mackay in his place for a self-direct. You all can let me know if I'm doing the wrong thing. |
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Captin Aniima
Daedalian Member
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:27 pm Post subject: 990 |
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@TGC- yes I missed the post about rm being dead but as a fault I wasn’t looking for it. But when I checked the deceased list he was not on it(besides he was so quiet throughout the game that if you missed the post then you wouldn’t be able to tell. He was just too quiet) that’s why he was in my post. As for the sentran matter then you should know that he was worried that we all would see him as mafia so he would be the best choice. I said that he doesn’t have to worry about being first choice as long as he wasn’t mafia because when you are mafia you are bound to slip up under a lot of pressure for example take a look at MNO's slip up in the game of thrones game. I understand that even if you are town you still have to worry there’s just more to worry about as a mafia member. Me saying that he is not exactly first pick is exactly what it says. Simply some people in the thread may choose El over Sentran or in some cases Mackay over Sentran. My FOS from amb came from him trying to essentially bribe mackay. Not a Meta. Not a RL comparison. I didn’t give sides to Amb or Mackay because I feel that by taking sides it will pull me into a crossfire that I don’t particularly care for. And zag I honestly don’t have a much of a read other than a small voice in my head saying that Zag might be town. I meant exactly what I said about you, you did write a lot of tldr fluff posts and now they have become posts that are long yet contain a lot of information (its not bad but its not necessarily good either). Also Sentran is confirmed mafia by now and can kill you’re plan is not likely to work at all. We should kill Sentran and if you feel the need to then you can try to lynch me again tomorrow. My theory involving Jedo being town does have other back up than what I had said on the matter. BTW don’t you know that fighting me on whether or not we should keep Sentran alive only makes people think that you are scum buddies with him. Even with you stating your plan to the players you could still be viewed as mafia. I know you aren’t mafia (I am absolutely certain of it based on what I have read) you just have a difference in opinion. I want you to believe me and if i have to role claim to do i will but you gotta tell me. Do you want me to role claim?
Do the players of this game need me to role claim in order to understand why I have my opinions?
_________________
Just sayin... The sky is blue. |
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Amb
Amb the Hitched.
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:50 pm Post subject: 991 |
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| Quote: |
I have not at any point accused you of basing your arguments against me on lies, because you are not (as far as I can tell). Amb is.
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See this is why I think Mackay is scum. She basically is saying I'm basing my case on my 'own' lies. Her knee jerk reactions, and willingness to attack everything except when it suits her is the basis of my case. She was really happy to believe Coach who was scum. She attacks Masons, and claims of Rupert. It's completely inconsistent, and much more aligned with that of a player who is actively pretending to be town.
Either way, we need to string up Sentran. |
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Mackay
Saviour of Spiders
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:57 pm Post subject: 992 |
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| The Great Crep'er wrote: |
| @Mackay: You're voting me over a claimed scum, because.... |
Because the claimed scum wants to end the day early for some reason, and therefore I didn't want to switch my vote until I'd had a good night's sleep and some time to think about it. I'm evaluating my options now.
| The Great Crep'er wrote: |
| By the way, if I can't get to Sentran tonight, I will be using Mackay in his place for a self-direct. You all can let me know if I'm doing the wrong thing. |
If you're not lying scum, this sounds excellent.  |
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Mackay
Saviour of Spiders
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 11:02 pm Post subject: 993 |
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| Amb wrote: |
See this is why I think Mackay is scum. She basically is saying I'm basing my case on my 'own' lies. Her knee jerk reactions, and willingness to attack everything except when it suits her is the basis of my case. She was really happy to believe Coach who was scum. She attacks Masons, and claims of Rupert. It's completely inconsistent, and much more aligned with that of a player who is actively pretending to be town.
Either way, we need to string up Sentran. |
See this is why I'm calling Amb a liar. I clearly pointed out that everything he just said is not true. He is ignoring the facts of the game to keep pushing a lie.
I have already addressed this assertion and proven that it is simply not true. Ignoring my posts doesn't change the facts. |
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Mackay
Saviour of Spiders
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 11:31 pm Post subject: 994 |
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| The Great Crep'er wrote: |
Really? I figure it's on par with posts like these...
Or the 8000 references Amb made to Coach being a bad guy role. It's not necessarily a sound theory but a guestimation based on roles, and a knowledge of Survivor History. A good deal of roles so far have been at least somewhat relevant to their Survivor name counterparts based on their characteristics. Russell was a key figure in many votes in his first two seasons. He had a god complex and was ultimately the centerpoint of a number of Survivor edits. Now what role is "head honcho" material?
I hate to say it, but I think for your second point, I'm going to need a bit of clarity before addressing it. I feel like there is a specific point in either my interactions with Sentran or my linkings to him that you want to address. |
You figure incorrectly. The posts you are talking about refer to people speculating about specific characters. My doubt is not regarding Russell's role in the game, but about your certainty regarding the inclusion of a mechanic that makes the mafia godfather the only person who can kill.
(Off topic: Russell was the muscle of that alliance, Parvati was the brains. She let Russell think he was "head honcho" because it was the best way to control him. I don't think this is relevant to the game mechanics, I just like talking about how great Parvati is. )
It would help to avoid ambiguity if you didn't use the word "definitely" when discussing your "guestimations" in the future.
Zag had a better explanation than you, anyway:
| Zag wrote: |
Actually, all he's asserting is that Sentran is the one to name the scum kill, i.e. the Godfather. The most common description of redirector is that he can redirect the action of anyone whose role includes naming a name. If the godfather's role is to name the scum kill, then redirecting him redirects the scum kill. That might be all there is to it.
Admittedly, I don't think that this is the traditional interpretation of redirector w.r.t. godfather, but it is certainly a reasonable one, given a literal interpretation of that description of redirector. If, for instance, UMonk had not specified that the godfather has to name not only the victim as well as the killer (perhaps thinking that part of it was unnecessary) then redirecting the godfather would produce exactly this result. Remember, also, that they are not actual kills, but secret votes off the island, so it makes sense not to have a killer. |
This is an interpretation I didn't get from Creper's posts, but it is a much more sensible one. My only objection is that the situation he is claiming is currently in play would, if the above were true, mean that a role was included that would be able to - in fact, would almost be specifically deigned to - cripple the godfather, not just a random mafia goon. I don't buy that the game would be set up that way anyway, but even less so if the target were the GF (I don't know how you could miss that while creating the setup). It makes me even less likely to think that such a plan would work even if I trusted Creper.
Whew. I might get to the actual topic at hand soon! |
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Amb
Amb the Hitched.
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 11:39 pm Post subject: 995 |
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| Quote: |
Thirdly, I did not believe a claim of "Parvati Shallow". There was no claim of Parvati Shallow.
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See this is an example where Mackay is twisting things. I never said she believed a claim of Parvati Shallow. She believed Parvati Shallow! And I don't think it was a belief.
Mackay's game can almost be summed up: THis person is lying - lynch them. That person is lying too. Amb's case is built on Lies. Zag's case isn't built on lies, but I wish it was.
None of my concerns have been addressed. The posts are dodging posts to avoid the issues. |
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Mackay
Saviour of Spiders
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 11:54 pm Post subject: 996 |
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Did you seriously just cherrypick a sentence from the middle of the post where I stated all the lies in your argument?
Anyway,
| Amb wrote: |
| THe only claim Mackay has actually believed all game is and was Parvati Shallow. |
(which is a lie in itself, but anyway.) |
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Mackay
Saviour of Spiders
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 11:59 pm Post subject: 997 |
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| Amb wrote: |
| The posts are dodging posts to avoid the issues. |
This would be hilarious if it weren't so infuriating.
I have directly addressed every argument you have made against me, using observable facts from this thread. You might be avoiding reading them, but I am not avoiding answering them.
I wish you would either state something of substance or stop vaguely declaring that I am scum and repeating your lies. I'm not interested in debating you but I'm stuck responding constantly because I refuse to let you attempt to swing the town's rhetoric by repeating lies over and over until they sink in. |
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Mackay
Saviour of Spiders
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| Posted: Wed Aug 08, 2012 12:42 am Post subject: 998 |
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Here's the thing I noticed last night.
| The Great Crep'er, day 1 wrote: |
My Role (isn't it nice how the person with the longest posts has to claim first because of a ridiculously accelerated day one?): Rupert Boneham
I want to paraphrase this just enough so that I am not in violation of the don't quote the mod rule. What I get from the role (a description as vague and riddled with spelling errors as it is which is not ideal for a guy in my situation ) is that I am a type of revenge townie that attacks and kills a certain numbered vote voter (information that was disclosed to me which I will not post here as I feel it will only help the mafia) if lynched. i.e. the Rupert that screams "WHO THE HELL VOTED FOR ME?!?" in Pearl Islands or the Rupert that was militant about getting Russell out in HvV.
I also was informed that I have some type of fish (forgetting what species it was) in my possession. What that does, if anything, remains to be seen.
You may choose to vote or keep your vote on me after my claim, but keep in mind you are doing so at your own possible peril. |
| The Great Crep'er, day 4 wrote: |
| What am I really? I am the redirector. (UM's going to kill me for dancing on this razor thin edge between description and outright quoting, but, heck, I am a committed visitor to the Mafia Games forum that is alive in this game, a more rare commodity by the minute. Sorry Monk.) In plain english, I can take one other player each night in the game and replace their choice with my own preference. |
When Creper was making his fake claim he did this whole "oh I don't want to quote too close to the role PM, but this is almost exactly what it says". He did it again with his second claim which we are supposed to believe.
To me, it looks like a calculated attempt to make his claim appear more genuine. I don't think he would need to do that if his claim were real.
If his claim is a gambit, Sentran dead or alive both work for him. Sentran dead 'justifies' his claim and helps his standing with the town going forward. Sentran alive is an obvious benefit to the mafia, and could be used as justification for future kills, eg "Oh yeah uh I redirected Sentran's kill to Mackay because I thought she was mafia, oops my bad". It buys an additional day whenever we do have to take the time to carry out the Sentran lynch.
In addition, his behaviour toward Aniima is bugging me. I think that he acknowledges that Zag (followed by Amb) are most likely to be cultists, and he has stated that part of his supposed motivation is to lynch cult members. He has stated that he is planning on redirecting my ability tonight, which I can only take as a statement of suspicion toward me. So why, then, launch a protracted attack on Aniima? I feel as though he is arguing with Aniima because
a) she is an easy target as a low-volume poster, and given the giant post he made going through her contributions to the thread I can't help but think the intent is to overwhelm; and
b) because her ability is as yet unrevealed. Aniima, I urge you to leave it that way. I do not think that roleclaiming will benefit you at this time. We have enough people with dodgy claims to deal with at the moment, only a few unrevealed players left, and scum who may well be searching for a particular pro-town role in order to eliminate them.
Despite my feelings about TGC, Eleth is 100% right. unvote; vote: Aniima We need to lynch the confirmed scum. |
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Mackay
Saviour of Spiders
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| Posted: Wed Aug 08, 2012 12:43 am Post subject: 999 |
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Urgh the ONE time I don't preview.
unvote; vote: Sentran |
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The Great Crep'er
2% Spambot
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| Posted: Wed Aug 08, 2012 1:21 am Post subject: 1000 |
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| Captin Aniima wrote: |
| @TGC- yes I missed the post about rm being dead but as a fault I wasn’t looking for it. But when I checked the deceased list he was not on it(besides he was so quiet throughout the game that if you missed the post then you wouldn’t be able to tell. He was just too quiet) that’s why he was in my post. |
| The first post timestamp wrote: |
| Last edited by Undercover Monk on Mon Jul 30, 2012 9:26 pm; edited 9 times in total |
| Your post timestamp wrote: |
| Sat Aug 04, 2012 5:14 am |
I call bullshit.
Confirm Vote: Captain Aniima
| Quote: |
| As for the sentran matter then you should know that he was worried that we all would see him as mafia so he would be the best choice. I said that he doesn’t have to worry about being first choice as long as he wasn’t mafia because when you are mafia you are bound to slip up under a lot of pressure for example take a look at MNO's slip up in the game of thrones game. I understand that even if you are town you still have to worry there’s just more to worry about as a mafia member. Me saying that he is not exactly first pick is exactly what it says. |
I'm sorry, but I really have no idea what you're talking about. You are now editing and revising your words in an effort to dodge criticism and it is very transparent. What you said was...
| Quote: |
| you shouldn't have to worry if you're not scum. |
What did you mean by that?
And the whole "first pick" part made it seem like there were people hiding in the dark that wanted to vote Eleth. What made you "so sure" about that?
| Quote: |
| My FOS from amb came from him trying to essentially bribe mackay. Not a Meta. Not a RL comparison. |
You brought that RL situation up in your post, you can't deny that. Are you just saying it "happened to" reflect Amb's move and wasn't a comparison at all?
| Quote: |
| I didn’t give sides to Amb or Mackay because I feel that by taking sides it will pull me into a crossfire that I don’t particularly care for. |
Who says that you giving sides is going to pull you into the crossfire? How about being honest with us and outing whatever findings you have? The sole benefit of not spilling that you've listed only benefits you.
| Quote: |
| And zag I honestly don’t have a much of a read other than a small voice in my head saying that Zag might be town. |
That's not the same as "no read". -_-
| Quote: |
| I meant exactly what I said about you, you did write a lot of tldr fluff posts and now they have become posts that are long yet contain a lot of information (its not bad but its not necessarily good either). |
You have yet to quote me to tell us what I say that makes you feel that way!
| Quote: |
| Also Sentran is confirmed mafia by now and can kill you’re plan is not likely to work at all. |
Elaborate.
| Quote: |
| We should kill Sentran and if you feel the need to then you can try to lynch me again tomorrow. My theory involving Jedo being town does have other back up than what I had said on the matter. |
Then you need to enlighten us if you want anyone to share your opinion. You have already softclaimed and have 2-3 claims that are likely to be killed ahead of you. What is the point of holding back?
| Quote: |
| /BTW don’t you know that fighting me on whether or not we should keep Sentran alive only makes people think that you are scum buddies with him. Even with you stating your plan to the players you could still be viewed as mafia. |
If you seriously think a scum would WILLINGLY expose a connection to his partner, you must think they aren't playing that smartly.
Unvote; Vote: Sentran
I'm tired of arguing. I just want to die already so I can stop arguing with you people who can't respond to my arguments for the plan with a bit of logic instead of "oh, what if something goes wrong?" Well damnit, if you worried about that every time you made a move, you wouldn't be doing anything.
There has also been an extreme amount of volatile words that have been uncalled for.
I don't wish to be here any longer, and I just want to do everything short of modkilling to achieve that.
You're welcome, by the way.
@Mackay: I am obviously not going to reveal my move to the mafia. Don't be naive. My purpose for saying that was to gouge you for a reaction and I've heard what I wanted to hear. |
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