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jadesmar
Bad Puppy
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 Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 5:26 pm Post subject: 561 |
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| Plus, the worst thing that happens in that situation is that scum is lynched. |
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jadesmar
Bad Puppy
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| Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 5:40 pm Post subject: 562 |
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| Plus, if it ever did happen, it would say a lot more about the person who dropped the hammer than it does about me. |
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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| Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 6:24 pm Post subject: 563 |
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| jadesmar wrote: |
| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| jadesmar wrote: |
Here's a thing:
That comment was directed at 3iff. Why are you responding for him? |
I'm sorry. Was there a question in there somewhere? No, there wasn't. As it is, I wasn't responding on behalf of 3iff; I was voicing my own, similar uneasiness regarding your comments. I cannot help it if 3iff chooses to piggy-back my sentiments. |
Whatever dude, it should have been fairly clear that I wasn't talking to you. |
I never said you were talking to me. What I'm saying is 1) I wasn't responding for 3iff, and 2) I was raising my own concerns which happened to be similar to 3iff's. I'm sorry for giving my relevant input on a current discussion.
| jadesmar wrote: |
| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
Tell me how exactly I'm supposed to be assured that you are able to change your vote before a steamroll lynch. The first four people to post voted for Leonidas, leaving six people who haven't spoken. Do you know that those six people won't check in and vote just as quickly as the others and that they won't do so when you are conveniently online and able to unvote?
I didn't think so. |
Sure, I can. In that it's never happened ever in the history of anything. |
Doesn't cut it, not least because I'm sure it has even if you or I have never witnessed it. Considering the speed of the votes before half the people have posted, I have plenty of reason to be shocked and suspicious and disbelieving that the people responsible will maintain control of the lynch (or lack thereof).
And in fact, the worst thing that could happen is not having discussion. It is the town's most valuable power, more than any single role's power. Without discussion, we will be making decisions the next day on the basis of flips and individuals' information, the latter being unconfirmed. In other words, not nearly as helpful as some hearty discussion.
Finally, there are plenty of people (unfortunately) who don't go about counting votes unless there's a vote count, so that would be an easy excuse for a hammer person. Never mind that scum are rarely the hammer these days because of this general assumption of yours. Based on your logic then, we'd be doing a very poor one-for-one trade. Then of course, there's the fact that people like me are more likely to examine everybody other than the hammer because scum don't actually hammer much any more.
All-in-all, you would still be one of the most suspicious; and now you are more so for defending your actions in this very tenuous situation.
_________________
Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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jadesmar
Bad Puppy
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| Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 6:29 pm Post subject: 564 |
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| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| And in fact, the worst thing that could happen is not having discussion. It is the town's most valuable power, more than any single role's power. Without discussion, we will be making decisions the next day on the basis of flips and individuals' information, the latter being unconfirmed. In other words, not nearly as helpful as some hearty discussion. |
That's exactly what I meant, the best that could happen is a discussion and a lynch of scum. But the worst that could happen in case of a quick lynch is the lynch of the scum. |
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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine
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| Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 6:47 pm Post subject: 565 |
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| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| Here's the thing though: none of us have reason to disbelieve DP, but it's still suspicious how quickly people have latched onto it without any (visible) consideration. I'm still somewhat uneasy about everybody currently voting Leo because they didn't stop to think or even pick up things from yesterday. Day is when we have to discuss, so Leo will be lynched when we are finished discussing. There's no need to worry about that. |
I have never liked speed of posts as a reason for lynching. As for a reason, it has been proven time and again that getting people angry is the quickest way to get them to mess up. So, pressure the likely lynch candidates with votes, and see what comes out of him. It's a legitimate and tested theory.
_________________
Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland |
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jadesmar
Bad Puppy
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| Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 6:53 pm Post subject: 566 |
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| Sentran wrote: |
I have never liked speed of posts as a reason for lynching. As for a reason, it has been proven time and again that getting people angry is the quickest way to get them to mess up. So, pressure the likely lynch candidates with votes, and see what comes out of him. It's a legitimate and tested theory. |
I agree with the first bit, but I feel we have different ways of making people angry. |
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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| Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 7:07 pm Post subject: 567 |
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| jadesmar wrote: |
| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| And in fact, the worst thing that could happen is not having discussion. It is the town's most valuable power, more than any single role's power. Without discussion, we will be making decisions the next day on the basis of flips and individuals' information, the latter being unconfirmed. In other words, not nearly as helpful as some hearty discussion. |
That's exactly what I meant, the best that could happen is a discussion and a lynch of scum. But the worst that could happen in case of a quick lynch is the lynch of the scum. |
I see we were indeed saying the same thing. Why then are you okay with the worst? I know you haven't said that, but your attitude suggests it.
| Sentran wrote: |
| I have never liked speed of posts as a reason for lynching. As for a reason, it has been proven time and again that getting people angry is the quickest way to get them to mess up. So, pressure the likely lynch candidates with votes, and see what comes out of him. It's a legitimate and tested theory. |
That doesn't apply here though because as you said, either DP or Leo is scum (barring interference of powers). There is no pressuring to be done in order to seal the deal and "see what comes out of him." We don't need to see what comes out of Leo if we believe DP, and in fact, we would do better to ignore anything he says at this point if we believe he is caught scum.
I don't know what you are talking about with "speed of posts."
_________________
Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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jadesmar
Bad Puppy
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| Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 7:28 pm Post subject: 568 |
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| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| jadesmar wrote: |
| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| And in fact, the worst thing that could happen is not having discussion. It is the town's most valuable power, more than any single role's power. Without discussion, we will be making decisions the next day on the basis of flips and individuals' information, the latter being unconfirmed. In other words, not nearly as helpful as some hearty discussion. |
That's exactly what I meant, the best that could happen is a discussion and a lynch of scum. But the worst that could happen in case of a quick lynch is the lynch of the scum. |
I see we were indeed saying the same thing. Why then are you okay with the worst? I know you haven't said that, but your attitude suggests it. |
I don't see it as a likely scenario. |
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itisally
Master of Disguise
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| Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:55 pm Post subject: 569 |
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So right now the only people who are voting for Leo are DP, Sentran, Jadesmar and Reakul. All of that was in the first 5 hours of the day.
Both Leo and DP have claimed, but conversation regarding those claims has been non-existent. I guess that isn't too bad, it means that scum didn't accidental cross claim, but there are so many possibilities in the theme.
The conversation has been interesting. I have watched as Jadesmar and Jedo finally came to an agreement. Sentran and I have batted around possibilities. I think the discussion has been good.
I notice that no one has really said that we shouldn't lynch Leo, just that it was too fast. To me that means we should wait until everyone has chimed in. To that end everyone has at least chimed in, although I would like to hear more from 3iff, Garou, and Raearia.
What do you think of the 4 scenarios that have been put forth? Any ideas about their likely hood? What about the interactions you have seen? Any buddying or distancing in your view?
_________________
I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong. |
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jadesmar
Bad Puppy
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| Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:00 pm Post subject: 570 |
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| Are you saying you don't want to hear more from Leo? Because I really want to hear more from Leo. |
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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine
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| Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:57 pm Post subject: 571 |
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| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| I don't know what you are talking about with "speed of posts." |
I meant speed of votes/bandwagon, but I was trying to get a quick post out before getting the kids off to school. Here is why I said that, in a multi-quote nutshell:
| itisally wrote: |
| I am concerned about the quickness of the votes at the beginning of the day, or even the quickness of the declaration of results. |
| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| Here's the thing though: none of us have reason to disbelieve DP, but it's still suspicious how quickly people have latched onto it without any (visible) consideration. |
| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| Tell me how exactly I'm supposed to be assured that you are able to change your vote before a steamroll lynch. |
Hope that clears it up.
| jadesmar wrote: |
| Are you saying you don't want to hear more from Leo? Because I really want to hear more from Leo. |
I agree with this sentiment. I very much want to hear from Leo, whether or not he's scum. It's frequently the subtle nuances of posts that can help to out other scum. Besides, with as quiet as he's been for most of this game, any pressure that leads to more posts becomes helpful.
_________________
Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland |
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Garou_Kinfolk
Daedalian Member
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| Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:57 pm Post subject: 572 |
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Since Ally asked, here's what I think of the day 3 events so far.
D.P./Leo: Chances are that one of them is scum. D.P. took a big risk if he is scum, and I don't know if it was worth it in that case, though, I don't know what powers the mafia have, so it's hard to say.
I want to hear more from Leo. 11 posts and only about 3 with any kind of length/content.
Spyrl result speculation: There's only 2 results she could have gotten from the one night. Town and Mafia. If mafia, then the 3 people she scrutinized the most (Jedo, Jade, and Leo) should be watch the closest. If town, the only one she spoke of positively about was me.  There was an almost 1in 4 chance she got town if the standard ratio was followed for setup.
@ally: Can you tell me what claim Leo made please? I seem to have missed it. Thanks.
@Sentran: You should add Jedo to your list of suspects. Yes he voted for MNO, but he has stated in repeated games that when he's scum, he tries not to look at that part of his role p.m.
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Most posts made from my phone. |
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Garou_Kinfolk
Daedalian Member
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:02 am Post subject: 573 |
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Sorry about the double post. I had reached the character limit on my phone.
I wanted to add that I will address the other previous posts when I can get to a computer.
Congrats Sniklac on being a new dad! It's an exciting thing to be, and when your baby becomes old enough to see you and smile, you know all the dirty diapers and sleepless nights are worth it.
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Most posts made from my phone. |
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Raearia
Daedalian Member
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 3:15 am Post subject: 574 |
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For me it is hard to say don't lynch Leo when there is pretty much nothing in his favor to argue for, there is more against him at this point in time...I am sick and can't concentrate enough to post. After a nights rest I will come back and make a more thoughtful post.
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10289 is the end! |
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 3:16 am Post subject: 575 |
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| jadesmar wrote: |
| Are you saying you don't want to hear more from Leo? Because I really want to hear more from Leo. |
I'm saying whatever he says should be treated as a lie, or virtually ignored. How many times has MNO said something in his death throes which is designed simply to confuse the remaining town? If Leo is caught, I prefer not to let us be sucked into such mind games.
Sentran, that doesn't clear things up for me. How does "quickness/speed of posts" relate to a "reason for lynching"?
| Garou_Kinfolk wrote: |
| If town, the only one she spoke of positively about was me. |
I hope you're not trying to suggest that this
| spyrl wrote: |
| I think Garou brings up a good point. |
was an indication that she received a town result on you. Other than that, I'm with you that the people spyrl expressed doubt about should be scrutinized the most, but there's also an element in which you have to look at the context. It's no shocker that she was digging on me given how bombastic I was on Day 1 and that she was already suspicious of me, but for her to dig on Leo over and against esme is significant. I don't need you to admit that though.
As for your other frame-up on me, it's interesting how you are picking and choosing what about my meta is significant. First, I'm likely innocent because I wouldn't bus a buddy on Day 1, but now I'm more likely scum for "bussing" MNO because I don't look at my scum buddies before the game starts. These things don't really add up, and it demonstrates that you are using whatever about my meta is convenient for your case.
And for the record, I believe it would be a 3-in-4 chance of receiving a town result.
_________________
Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 5:22 am Post subject: 576 |
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| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| Sentran, that doesn't clear things up for me. How does "quickness/speed of posts" relate to a "reason for lynching"? |
Apparently, I should not be allowed to post before caffeine. I was confused by what you'd said, so I went back to see what I posted. Now I understand your confusion.
| Sentran wrote: |
| I have never liked speed of posts as a reason for lynching. |
That made no sense, and if I didn't already know what I was trying to say, I'd be questioning it as well. What I was trying (very unsuccessfully) to say was that I have never liked the speed of votes as a reason to suspect the voters. In other words, I do not consider it a scumtell when people are too quick to jump onto a bandwagon.
_________________
Sentran
"Speaking of double negatives, I haven't read greylab yet today." - Lifeinmomland |
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Garou_Kinfolk
Daedalian Member
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 5:41 am Post subject: 577 |
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| Jedo the Jedi, Post 576 wrote: |
| Garou_Kinfolk wrote: |
| If town, the only one she spoke of positively about was me. |
I hope you're not trying to suggest that this
| spyrl wrote: |
| I think Garou brings up a good point. |
was an indication that she received a town result on you. |
| spyrl, post 328 wrote: |
| I think Garou brings up a good point. |
| spyrl, post 408 wrote: |
| ]At this point, with only MNO as a confirmed scum, we've still got a lot of question marks out there, but by looking at analysis (like Garou posted) we can see who's doing what, and where. |
The fact that spyrl mentions me at all puts me in more of a town light. If she didn't believe/think I was town, she could have simply left it blank. Also, she doesn't make other positive references to any one that I could find.
| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| Other than that, I'm with you that the people spyrl expressed doubt about should be scrutinized the most, but there's also an element in which you have to look at the context. It's no shocker that she was digging on me given how bombastic I was on Day 1 and that she was already suspicious of me... |
I'll post about this in another post. 
| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| ...but for her to dig on Leo over and against esme is significant. I don't need you to admit that though. |
As I said before, everything she's said is pretty standard for pressuring a lurker or conducting a lurker lynch.
| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| As for your other frame-up on me, it's interesting how you are picking and choosing what about my meta is significant. First, I'm likely innocent because I wouldn't bus a buddy on Day 1, but now I'm more likely scum for "bussing" MNO because I don't look at my scum buddies before the game starts. These things don't really add up, and it demonstrates that you are using whatever about my meta is convenient for your case. |
I had forgotten about you're scum policy until partway through day 2, which is when I was putting you on my scum list again.
| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| And for the record, I believe it would be a 3-in-4 chance of receiving a town result. |
That was my bad.  I was in a hurry at work and didn't proof read before posting. 1 in 4 for scum, 3 in 4 for town. Standard ratio.
That's it for now. Sorry about the wall post.
_________________
Most posts made from my phone. |
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3iff
very unbifflike
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:12 am Post subject: 578 |
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As others have said, we really do need to hear more from Leo and DP...especially Leo who is the target of todays lynch...unless of course the accusation is correct and he is scum. If he is town then I would hope he doesn't just stay silent as esme did.
The quick lynch is a bad thing and that's my main objection to the events of today. I've was guilty of making a quick lynch in one of my first games and it turned out badly as we killed off a townie allowing the mafia to swoop in to win the game...so now I'm trying to be more circumspect. A couple more days won't hurt.
I shall withdraw my FoS on jadesmar. |
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Dragon Phoenix
Judge Doom
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 9:44 am Post subject: 579 |
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I agree, there's no rush to hang Leo - as long as we hang him by the end of the day. I had to come out with this info straightaway though - if I had waited there was the risk of a bandwagon on me, which would have made my late claim look like a desperate attempt to save myself. Also, as it is a one-shot ability, there's no point in trying to be subtle - like a regular cop would do.
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My photography:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/artrock2006/ |
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3iff
very unbifflike
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 10:44 am Post subject: 580 |
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| DP: What were the conditions of your investigation under which you would get a guilty verdict? |
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Dragon Phoenix
Judge Doom
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 10:54 am Post subject: 581 |
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I have no idea what the question is.
I send a msg to the mode saying that I want to use my one-shot ability.
He clarifies that it is an investigation.
I investigate Leonidas.
I get a guilty result.
_________________
My photography:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/artrock2006/ |
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3iff
very unbifflike
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 11:02 am Post subject: 582 |
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So, you have a one-shot ability but the mod didn't tell you what it was in advance, yes?
I'm not doubting you, just trying to establish what is going on...an 'investigation' is fairly vague as to what you actually were investigating. I suppose if your role name is from a cop then it's probably a standard cop. I'm just wondering if you might be investigating a vig and getting a guilty from that.
Just to repeat...I don't know what the circumstances are, I'm just trying to make sense of the situation.
Oh, did you 'choose' Leo as your target or was that randomly assigned?
Thanks for your info on this. |
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Dragon Phoenix
Judge Doom
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 11:07 am Post subject: 583 |
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| Dragon Phoenix wrote: |
I can share my name if you prefer - I will not survive long anyway as a confirmed innocent. I am Ben Shockley. There is a reason why I have a one shot ability (which turned out to be an investigation after I activated it), but that's frankly not the strongest part of my role description.
When I got told by the mod last night that the ability was a one shot investigation I picked Leo because [a] he was lurking, thus not providing clues about alignment, [b] I know him as a stronger player when he is town than he is showing here.
Given the heat I have been drawing from some players in the game so far, plus that my pretty vocal reads on zag and esme were completely wrong, I expected that I might be lynch fodder today. That's why I chose to use the ability last night. And I'm glad I did.
I had not picked up on any signals from our late cop yesterday - of course, I also did not know that Spyrl was the cop. |
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My photography:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/artrock2006/ |
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3iff
very unbifflike
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 11:17 am Post subject: 584 |
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Thanks again...I expected the info to be scattered throughout the thread...
If you are Ben Shockley then it would be reasonable to assume you do have a cop investigation ability.
So, does Leo have anything to say in his defence? |
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 1:52 pm Post subject: 585 |
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I do not understand how you can even remotely say those might suggest spyrl got a town result on you. I don't think she could have left those blank. The first one was a reference to you because you said the very thing she was thinking. Don't try to sell me that scum don't say things with which town agree. The second reference was explaining something to a relative n00b (Raearia), so it's important to lay things out more clearly. "What kind of analysis?" "Analysis like Garou posted." Again, don't try to tell me scum don't do those things. Hell, since you think I'm scum and scum don't do analysis, you'll have to square those contradictions with the fact that I posted analysis.
| Garou_Kinfolk wrote: |
| As I said before, everything she's said is pretty standard for pressuring a lurker or conducting a lurker lynch. |
You're right, and that's exactly my point. A cop would want to look for a legitimate reason for drumming up votes for their guilty result so they don't have to out themselves. spyrl went from no mention of Leo on Day 1 to deciding he was the Lurker of the Year when there was already systematic lurker pressure happening starting with esme. If spyrl wanted to blend in with lurker hunting, she could have gone along with us until we got to Leo, but she didn't. These are the kinds of clues good cops put out.
_________________
Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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3iff
very unbifflike
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 2:24 pm Post subject: 586 |
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I've been rereading the spyrl posts. Almost no mention of Garou at all...certainly no support for Garou being town as far as I can see. Extreme frustration with jadesmar for lurking earlier and hints of suspicion against Leonidas.
I also see her disquiet at me lumping her into a suspect group. I now understand why.
I think that leaves Leo out on a limb as the potentially next lynch but I have concerns about Garou and Jadesmar. I just want to put that on record. |
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jadesmar
Bad Puppy
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 2:39 pm Post subject: 587 |
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| 3iff wrote: |
I've been rereading the spyrl posts. Almost no mention of Garou at all...certainly no support for Garou being town as far as I can see. Extreme frustration with jadesmar for lurking earlier and hints of suspicion against Leonidas.
I also see her disquiet at me lumping her into a suspect group. I now understand why.
I think that leaves Leo out on a limb as the potentially next lynch but I have concerns about Garou and Jadesmar. I just want to put that on record. |
I don't see how frustration about my lurking points to any sort of investigation of my previous incarnation. Feel free to expand on this. |
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3iff
very unbifflike
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 3:00 pm Post subject: 588 |
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| Previous incarnation??? |
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jadesmar
Bad Puppy
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 3:10 pm Post subject: 589 |
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| 3iff wrote: |
| Previous incarnation??? |
The person I replaced. |
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3iff
very unbifflike
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 3:55 pm Post subject: 590 |
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| I have no view of the person you replaced...TGC wasn't it. I don't think he was very talkative. |
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Dragon Phoenix
Judge Doom
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 4:05 pm Post subject: 591 |
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| Sniklac16 wrote: |
| DUE TO INACTIVITY FROM THE GREAT_CREPER NOT POSTING IN OVER 3 WEEKS AND NOT RESPONDING TO MY PM'S JADESMAR IS TAKING HIS PLACE |
Seriously, that is a 10 second search.
_________________
My photography:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/artrock2006/ |
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jadesmar
Bad Puppy
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 4:20 pm Post subject: 592 |
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| 3iff wrote: |
| I have no view of the person you replaced...TGC wasn't it. I don't think he was very talkative. |
Sorry, I thought you were trying to use spryl's frustration at me as some sort of information. My mistake. |
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itisally
Master of Disguise
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 5:11 pm Post subject: 593 |
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I have seen 2 claims so far that I have seen.
Leo in post 531 claimed Will Munny, but no power
DP in post 540 claimed Ben Shockley with a one shot mystery power that reviled as investigation upon use.
As for hearing more from Leo, I am not sure what he could say that would sway the voters. If he is mafia, any dialog with him will surly include mafia attempting to distance or lies meant to distract from his team mates. So no, once he claimed I am not sure there is more that I want to hear from him. But if he does post that’s ok too and will be taken in to due consideration.
I really think any signs dropped by spyrl are too vague to read. It seems like the speculation is that if she didn't say anything bad about a person maybe she investigated them, but I just didn't see anything that looked like strong support or denouncement of an individual. But that seems absurd to us because we are certain there was an investigation. Many a cop has held such information until later in the game to avoid death by mafia. I think that is the case here and in keeping with spryl’s play style. It isn't like there were clues that the Mafia was going to take her, or were there and I missed them too. If so it may be a good clue.
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I could agree with you, but then we would both be wrong. |
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Garou_Kinfolk
Daedalian Member
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 10:20 pm Post subject: 594 |
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Thanks ally for responding. I apparently read Leo's post wrong when he claimed. I thought it was something along the line of "I'll bet money I come up town." with bad grammar and spelling errors.
As for clues, I believe they are there. Yes, I read through her ISO again. Since there is so little of her posting support of anyone (I still stand by my opinion that she believed me town) I went back and looked at those she went after, Jedo for his "gut read" vote (I found it interesting 3iff didn't bring this up when he looked through Spyrls ISO), Leo for lurking, and Jadesmar for not reading anything prior to his replacing of TGC.
As I said earlier, her comments on Leo look like standard lurker hunting posts.
Her attacks against Jadesmar were mainly for him not reading anything but mod posts from before he replaced in.
Here's where the clues are. Jedo is the ONLY ONE she said was on her scum list. This is repeated several times in her posts. Unfortunately, I've run out of time/characters to post these.
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 10:44 pm Post subject: 595 |
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That's fine that she thinks I'm scum, but you have to differentiate between what suspicion is because of a cop result and what is because of posts. You see her growing suspicion of me throughout the day (and the previous one), but her suspicion of Leo is out of left field and in the face of another perfectly legitimate lurker hunt. That's what I can't get you to understand.
Have you ever even been a cop?
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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Raearia
Daedalian Member
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 10:46 pm Post subject: 596 |
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The lack of response from Leo, like Esme's lack of response, is really frustrating. While I think at the end of the day it is worth lynching Leo because if he turns out scum then we have a scum down, but if he is town we can look at DP and consider if his claims are just a big gambit.
From the discussion it really seems like Garou is trying to push being town a little to hard. I don't view spyrl's limited mention of Garou as an affirmation of him being town.
Yes she repeatedly called Jedo Scum, but I am having a hard time buying that going after Leo was just her lurker hunting.
To me it feels like Garou is trying to draw some fire off of Leo.
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10289 is the end! |
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Garou_Kinfolk
Daedalian Member
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 11:28 pm Post subject: 597 |
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Since it seems to be a growing issue with some, here are my views of the Leo/D.P. situation. I'm fine with Leo being lynched. I think he's the better target between the 2. Leo has had over a week being at L-2 and has posted very little. A partial claim then silence. Honestly, if he's scum (which seems likely) it's the best strategy to keep himself from inadvertently making connections to his scum buddies, or it is the worse thing he could do as a Townie to keep himself alive, unless he's waiting for something to happen to draw attention away from himself (which I seem to be doing with my continued postings about what I see in our cops posts.) I was going to give Leo another week before voting for him, just so we had plenty of discussion time, and he had plenty of time to post some kind of defense, if that is his intent. There isn't much I can add one way or the other since I have no investigation ability. I have to go with what I read, and reread, and read again.
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Most posts made from my phone. |
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Garou_Kinfolk
Daedalian Member
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| Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 4:36 am Post subject: 598 |
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And now for some responses since I'm on an actual computer instead of my phone and because I like to answer all of the accusations/questions thrown at me.
| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| I do not understand how you can even remotely say those might suggest spyrl got a town result on you. |
Wait a minute here.
| Garou_Kinfolk wrote: |
| If she didn't believe/think I was town, she could have simply left it blank. Also, she doesn't make other positive references to any one that I could find. |
| Garou_Kinfolk wrote: |
| Since there is so little of her posting support of anyone (I still stand by my opinion that she believed me town)... |
(Bold added for emphasis) Where in there does it say I believe she investigated me? Don't put words in my mouth that aren't there.
| Jedo wrote: |
| I don't think she could have left those blank. The first one was a reference to you because you said the very thing she was thinking. Don't try to sell me that scum don't say things with which town agree. |
So, when I say something and she agrees with me, I'm doing something scum do because she agreed with what I said before she posted that day. Am I reading that right? She agreed with what I said at the beginning of day 2 before she even posted, so I don't know how I could have known what she'd agree with at the point in which she would post.
| Jedo wrote: |
| The second reference was explaining something to a relative n00b (Raearia), so it's important to lay things out more clearly. "What kind of analysis?" "Analysis like Garou posted." Again, don't try to tell me scum don't do those things. Hell, since you think I'm scum and scum don't do analysis, you'll have to square those contradictions with the fact that I posted analysis. |
Wait wait wait. Scum don't do analysis? Since when don't scum do analysis? When did I say scum don't do analysis? Again, stop putting words in my mouth.
Also, everyone has their own analysis style. Just because I record interaction data, vote counts, among other things, doesn't mean that other people have to as well. The point is she could have left it blank, but spyrl doesn't do things arbitrarily so if she used someone specific in an example, I believe she did so for a reason.
| Jedo wrote: |
| Garou_Kinfolk wrote: |
| As I said before, everything she's said is pretty standard for pressuring a lurker or conducting a lurker lynch. |
You're right, and that's exactly my point. A cop would want to look for a legitimate reason for drumming up votes for their guilty result so they don't have to out themselves. spyrl went from no mention of Leo on Day 1 to deciding he was the Lurker of the Year when there was already systematic lurker pressure happening starting with esme. If spyrl wanted to blend in with lurker hunting, she could have gone along with us until we got to Leo, but she didn't. These are the kinds of clues good cops put out. |
The thing is, he was Lurker of the Year. Lowest content and lowest post count = Lurker of the Year, by your vote count post at the beginning of Day 2 in post 307.
At the time she voted for Leo, there were 3 votes for Esme. Jedo, 3iff and D.P.. Your reason for voting esme was she was the first one on your list that matched the lurker criteria you mentioned. 3iff voted for her simply because she was a lurker. His comment of "Start playing or die." is noted. D.P.s reason is because no one joined him on her vote the previous day and he believed there should be scum joining him unless she was scum.
Next Post to respond to:
| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| That's fine that she thinks I'm scum, |
I didn't say she thinks you're scum. I said you were the only one she had on her scum list day 2. The key words there are "the only one".
| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| ...but you have to differentiate between what suspicion is because of a cop result and what is because of posts. You see her growing suspicion of me throughout the day... |
Actually, I see her suspicious of you from the start and raising you higher on her scum list as the day goes on.
| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| ...(and the previous one), but her suspicion of Leo is out of left field and in the face of another perfectly legitimate lurker hunt. That's what I can't get you to understand. |
Her suspicion of Leo looks more like it's because he had fewer posts and less content. Yes, Esme's was a legitimate lurker hunt, but Leo had less posts and less content, so why, with only three votes for esme at the time, wouldn't Leo be a perfectly reasonable target?
| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
| Have you ever even been a cop? |
Yes.
| Raearia wrote: |
| Yes she repeatedly called Jedo Scum, but I am having a hard time buying that going after Leo was just her lurker hunting. |
Jedo is the ONLY person she called scum. Leo would have been the lurker I'd go after since his lurking is more pronounced then Esme's, but that doesn't matter at this point.
| Raearia wrote: |
| To me it feels like Garou is trying to draw some fire off of Leo. |
At this point it's a waiting game to see what Leo posts or who the last two are to vote him and end the day. All I'm doing is posting my opinions and what I see. Like I said before, I'd be happy to vote Leo if he wasn't already at L-2. Leo hasn't given us much to work with one way or the other, so I can't really make any speculation other then possible game theory based on what D.P. has said about his power and his use of it. What I am trying to do is post who and why I feel some people (Jedo so far) are scum so that, if I happen to get lynched or night killed, it'll be there for all to go back and look at for their own purposes.
On a different note, some may wonder why I post the way I do. The answer is simple. I'm town and feel more free to post how I feel and my opinions because of it. If I were scum, my posts would be more guarded and shorter.
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3iff
very unbifflike
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| Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 8:19 am Post subject: 599 |
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I'm happy to admit I said "Start playing or die" after my esme vote...simply because she was NOT playing. Worse than that, she was town and yet was not making any effort whatsoever - a crime against all townies. Regardless of why people voted for her, she did absolutely nothing to dissuade anyone.
Now Leo is doing the same. Back against the wall and not making the slightest effort to wriggle free. If he's town then he's letting the town down badly!
Really! Why do people clamour to join a game then then not bother to play?
So, I'm coming up to a large gap in my internet access and will have to make a voting decision in the next couple of days. I think it might have to be Leo. |
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training
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| Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 2:22 pm Post subject: 600 |
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We can do this your way.
| Garou_Kinfolk wrote: |
| Where in there does it say I believe she investigated me? Don't put words in my mouth that aren't there. |
| Garou_Kinfolk wrote: |
| If she received a town result, then above is the support for that townie. |
| Garou_Kinfolk wrote: |
| Spyrl result speculation: There's only 2 results she could have gotten from the one night...If town, the only one she spoke of positively about was me. |
And in response to this
| Jedo the Jedi wrote: |
I hope you're not trying to suggest that this
| spyrl wrote: |
| I think Garou brings up a good point. |
was an indication that she received a town result on you. |
you said
| Quote: |
| The fact that spyrl mentions me at all puts me in more of a town light. |
My apologies if I didn't understand what you were implying by those things. What you intended by all of those is simply that spyrl viewed you as more town in general regardless of her cop investigation? If that is so, then why throw that in with a discussion about whom she investigated?
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| Garou_Kinfolk wrote: |
| So, when I say something and she agrees with me, I'm doing something scum do because she agreed with what I said before she posted that day. Am I reading that right? |
No. What I'm saying is that just because a town person said they agree with you doesn't mean you are town or that they think you are town. Scum do say true things and helpful things with which town are likely to agree. There are plenty of times as scum that I say something is a bad idea (going after Deception in GoT Mafia), and there are townspeople who agree with me. It only means that in that instance we are in agreement, though it's for very different reasons.
| Garou_Kinfolk wrote: |
| Wait wait wait. Scum don't do analysis? Since when don't scum do analysis? When did I say scum don't do analysis? Again, stop putting words in my mouth. |
This is where I have problems with your comprehension ability again. Why don't you read my posts in context instead of pulling out a random snippet at the end? You're as bad as the news chopping up people's quotes to fit the story they want to tell. I'll take it slowly for you, so try to keep up.
You cited two quotes as evidence that spyrl thought you were more town than anyone else. The second one is referencing your analysis. She used that as an example to explain how we can make inferences about interactions and probability to a n00b, Raearia. Since she was explaining, she needed a concrete example, the most recent of which happened to be yours. Just because she referenced your analysis does not mean she viewed you as town. That's what I was refuting. I used the inverse for rhetorical effect. You said(/implied) that because spyrl referenced your analysis (the only analysis besides mine) it makes you town, and I'm arguing that scum also do analysis. However, the fact that you are citing spyrl's reference of your analysis as indication of her thinking you are town, I'm taking that to mean that you don't think scum do analysis. If you did think scum do analysis, then spyrl referencing your analysis would be null, not an indication of her thinking you are town as you claim.
What I'm really forcing you to admit then is that this reference of you by spyrl has zero bearing on what she thought of your alignment.
| Garou_Kinfolk wrote: |
| The point is she could have left it blank |
Again, I already answered this, and it was in fact the subject of the two quotes which you split up and then misinterpreted.
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| Garou_Kinfolk wrote: |
| The thing is, he was Lurker of the Year. Lowest content and lowest post count = Lurker of the Year, by your vote count post at the beginning of Day 2 in post 307. |
In fact, I specifically did not evaluate content in my information dump. The only difference between Leo and esme was two posts in my collection, and that is hardly significant. Looking back, their content is roughly similar in that both place votes for reasons other than RVS and point out things they find scummy. So, there was still an appreciable lurker hunt going on which spyrl could have joined if that's all she was after. There had to be something more significant about Leo than esme, and I'm saying it was likely an investigation. My assessment at least makes good sense.
| Garou_Kinfolk wrote: |
| Her suspicion of Leo looks more like it's because he had fewer posts and less content. Yes, Esme's was a legitimate lurker hunt, but Leo had less posts and less content, so why, with only three votes for esme at the time, wouldn't Leo be a perfectly reasonable target? |
If "Esme's was a legitimate lurker hunt," then why would spyrl need to find a different lurker to hunt? I haven't said spyrl's attention to Leo was unreasonable, but rather I have said if her motivation was purely lurker hunting, it is more likely that she would join the esme voting. The fact that she didn't do so stands out.
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| Garou_Kinfolk wrote: |
| I didn't say she thinks you're scum. I said you were the only one she had on her scum list day 2. |
Perhaps you can explain the difference between somebody "thinking someone is scum" and somebody "having someone on their scum list."
| Garou_Kinfolk wrote: |
| Actually, I see her suspicious of you from the start and raising you higher on her scum list as the day goes on. |
First, you should really practice cutting my posts more appropriately. The "(and the previous one)" bit goes with the first half and signals that I know spyrl was suspicious of me from an early time. Second, I fail to see the difference between what you say and what I say. It's like you are drawing these false dichotomies between what we say to make it look like you have the right of it and I the wrong, yet we are saying roughly the same thing. At least, that's the best I can make of it until you explain the difference better.
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| Garou_Kinfolk wrote: |
| Leo would have been the lurker I'd go after since his lurking is more pronounced then Esme's, but that doesn't matter at this point. |
This is where I see a big difference between us. I think you are projecting your own notions onto spyrl's views (you would pursue Leo for lurking/you view me as scum), whereas I am simply looking at which target of spyrl's looks the least tenable and therefore the most likely to be a cop result.
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Paragon Tally: 18 mafia, 3 SKs (1 twice), 1 cultist, numerous chat scum...and counting. |
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