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Clint Eastwood Mafia Game Over - Town Wins
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The Great Crep'er
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 12:54 am    Post subject: 81 Reply with quote

Amb wrote:
I could get on a Jedo bandwagon, but he has the distinct problem that he as power town (if he were) wouldnt claim and wont defend himself. Might be useful if he is lying scum. But at this stage it would only be a probability thing.


In essence, the first line of your post: Jedo's shortcomings would be useful if they were undoing him as scum. (Should go without saying)

The second: "But at this stage it would only be a probability thing." To me this is cryptic when it comes to why this nature of a potential Jedo wagon would hold you back. Care to elucidate?
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Raearia
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 3:02 am    Post subject: 82 Reply with quote

I am not a hater! I just think your words were confusing!
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 8:18 am    Post subject: 83 Reply with quote

MNO is too quiet for my liking.

Unvote. Vote MNOWAX
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Amb
Amb the Hitched.



PostPosted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 9:46 am    Post subject: 84 Reply with quote

Quote:
Care to elucidate?

No, not really Enthusiastic Grin
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Undercover Monk
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 1:31 pm    Post subject: 85 Reply with quote

I will happily explain as it seems my (and jedo's) plan is having an effect. We both brought up several games ago that a disturbing trend was happening day1. person A would be bandwaggoned...they would claim....wagon falls apart....person B is bandwagonned....they claim.....wagon falls apart....ect. With the result being we end day 1 on page 12 with our doc, cop, vig and who knows what else revealed to the scum and that makes it very hard for town to win or even to do a readthrough. So both jedo and I have made it a policy to not claim on day 1 therefore depriving the mafia of any additional info and perhaps speeding day 1 along. If we could get everyone to agree to this sentiment then you guys wouldnt have to complain about reading through 15 pages of useless day 1 drivel Enthusiastic Grin

Someone is going to be lynched and it is rarely backed by a ton of evidence just because on day 1 we dont know anything. Look at last game Zag was nearly lynched because he took one sentence in jedos opening post to build a wagon on. The evidence against Zag was basically that that behavior was scummy. Zag ended up town and we will see about jedo eventually but the point is on day the lynchee is usually decided upon a whim not hard evidence so why even try to claim.
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 5:47 pm    Post subject: 86 Reply with quote

I'm not trying to follow Jedo and UM (because I'm frequently at odds with one or both of them), but on this point I agree. Claiming on day 1 only gives ammo to the Mafia, making it harder for the town to win. I also acknowledge that this is a change from my previous opinion that a player may claim whenever they like. I still believe that point as well, but I don't think day 1 is the proper time.
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The Great Crep'er
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 4:47 pm    Post subject: 87 Reply with quote

Amb wrote:
Quote:
Care to elucidate?

No, not really Enthusiastic Grin


Bah! Unvote, Vote: Amb
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Zag
Unintentionally offensive old coot



PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 7:16 pm    Post subject: 88 Reply with quote

Amb wrote:
I dont think any day 1 vote is justifiable.

I assume this is what he refuses to elucidate on.

I wish I could say that I find this scummy, but it isn't, really. I sympathize with the fact that you never get, during day 1, enough that would justify a vote any other day. But that doesn't mean that you shouldn't make one, anyway. We need the votes and trends from day 1 for analysis later. So, the strategy, for town, is to pick something that strikes you as something of a scum tell, even though it isn't terribly convincing even to yourself, and vote it. The strategy for scum, of course, is to find something that you feel you can rationalize being a scum tell on some townie, and vote it. The two are extremely hard to tell apart.

That's why I wish I could really see Amb's comment as scummy, then I would vote him. But I don't, I'm afraid.
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Amb
Amb the Hitched.



PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 9:29 pm    Post subject: 89 Reply with quote

Quote:
I could get on a Jedo bandwagon, but he has the distinct problem that he as power town (if he were) wouldnt claim and wont defend himself. Might be useful if he is lying scum. But at this stage it would only be a probability thing.


I think this is what he wants me to elaborate on. But I don't see the point since it won't lead anywhere except that: No matter what I do - it puts me in the gun as TGC's voting target.

I can't expand on it to make Jedo look good or bad without then garnering votes on myself because either way it would be bad logic. If I say nothing, guess what TGC votes me anyway. So damned if I do, damned if I don't. TGC isn't baiting for scum. He is baiting so he can justify a vote. And I don't think any day 1 vote is justifiable - even one on TGC.
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The Great Crep'er
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 11:34 pm    Post subject: 90 Reply with quote

Amb wrote:

I can't expand on it to make Jedo look good or bad without then garnering votes on myself because either way it would be bad logic. If I say nothing, guess what TGC votes me anyway. So damned if I do, damned if I don't. TGC isn't baiting for scum. He is baiting so he can justify a vote. And I don't think any day 1 vote is justifiable - even one on TGC.


It isn't a terribly cooperative strategy with the rest of this town as it goes for the fifth amendment without explaining why - like you were able to just now - so I'm confused as to why you would put up that front.
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Zag
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 02, 2012 2:00 am    Post subject: 91 Reply with quote

Ahh. Now THIS is something I can get behind. You're afraid to take any sort of stance at all, because you're afraid that you'll be seen as scummy. A scum tell if ever I saw one.

Vote: Amb

Seriously, I don't really think it is much of one. In fact, I mostly want to vote in order to discourage the whole tactic. While it is very likely just genuine frustration with having been accused early in other games. Believe me, after that last game I totally understand. But it is also a good scum tactic, so I don't want it becoming an acceptable ploy. And maybe it indicates Amb-scum. It's the scummiest thing I've seen so far this game.
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Amb the Hitched.



PostPosted: Fri Nov 02, 2012 2:41 am    Post subject: 92 Reply with quote

You miss my point though. My point is that by using his post as he did, it leaves whoever he targets with it with a tarnish that is actually meaningless. I'll take a stance when I need to take a stance, but I don't want to go rabid on tenuous connections.
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Jedo the Jedi
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 02, 2012 2:42 am    Post subject: 93 Reply with quote

I don't think it's an out-and-out scum tell (considering the last game), but I think it's one of those things worth keeping an eye on.

More raekuul votes? The sooner we can get him close to lynch, the sooner the town can dissolve his wagon and start another, slightly more legitimate one. Might as well speed the process along, no?
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 02, 2012 2:42 am    Post subject: 94 Reply with quote

Quote:
...it goes for the fifth amendment


I am not American - so I have no clue what the 5th amendment even means.

I am also lazy.
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3iff
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 02, 2012 8:14 am    Post subject: 95 Reply with quote

I think "taking the 5th" means "the right to say nothing to incriminate yourself" but as I'm not American either I'm not 100% sure...and I'm NOT going to google it (something I normally do...)

There are an awful lot of players around here not playing. The last post from a non-regular is a couple of days ago. Methinks they are trying to stay out of the light.

Unvote: Vote spyrl just to shake the tree a bit.
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Raearia
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 02, 2012 9:07 am    Post subject: 96 Reply with quote

I see the whole conversation as pointless. Day one, as far as I can tell, starts with random voting and silly reasoning (like my own vote on TCG because of his slang talk).

Any form of trying to rationalize or justify one direction or the other gets you on most everyone's radar.

Here is how I see Day one:

Person one "I like cake."
Person two " Me as well, you must be town"
Person three "I like cake too!"
Person two " OMG YOU USED AN EXCLAMATION THAT'S A SCUM TELL!!" /start bandwagon.

So why are we having this conversation that will just end up going in circles and blown tempers?
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 02, 2012 10:36 am    Post subject: 97 Reply with quote

3iff wrote:
I think "taking the 5th" means "the right to say nothing to incriminate yourself" but as I'm not American either I'm not 100% sure...and I'm NOT going to google it (something I normally do...)

There are an awful lot of players around here not playing. The last post from a non-regular is a couple of days ago. Methinks they are trying to stay out of the light.

Unvote: Vote spyrl just to shake the tree a bit.


Ooohh! Lurker hunting! Me gusta!

Unvote raekuul
Vote: spyrl

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 02, 2012 2:09 pm    Post subject: 98 Reply with quote

Now lurker lynching is something I can get behind.
Vote: esme
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Garou_Kinfolk
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 02, 2012 4:15 pm    Post subject: 99 Reply with quote

unvote. Vote: 3iff

You don't just vote for a mans wife and expect to get away with it during RVS. Razz
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spyrl
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 02, 2012 4:36 pm    Post subject: 100 Reply with quote

Apparently I'm a tree now? At least tell me if I'm a deciduous one or not so I can make my case on why I am, most assuredly, a human and a mammal. *le sigh* At least TGC stopped using infernal language and is back to using more civilized words.

Raearia wrote:
Here is how I see Day one:

Person one "I like cake."
Person two " Me as well, you must be town"
Person three "I like cake too!"
Person two " OMG YOU USED AN EXCLAMATION THAT'S A SCUM TELL!!" /start bandwagon.
So true lol. But at least they didn't use five exclamation marks. =^d^= The only game I've ever played in where we actually caught a scum on Day 1 random silliness was when person A said, your name sounds scummy, you must be scum! They managed to get said person lynched and they turned out to be the godfather. Granted, this was in a live game, so you can pull all sorts of shenanigans that you can't pull off here, so it was pure luck that they got scum at all, least of all the godfather.
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Zag
Unintentionally offensive old coot



PostPosted: Fri Nov 02, 2012 5:04 pm    Post subject: 101 Reply with quote

Raearia wrote:
So why are we having this conversation that will just end up going in circles and blown tempers?

An excellent question. The answer is that it is (usually) a necessary part of the game, for town. (However, in this trend that I contributed to, where everyone has some sort of power, it is somewhat less necessary.) The primary reason it is useful is in later analysis, though it only really works if people have reasons for voting (thin as they are) and declare those reasons.

For instance, we are at 8 to lynch -- if a scum does get lynched, you can be pretty sure that the 6th and 7th vote on him are townies, unless the person made some sort of serious gaff that made lynching him inevitable.

Example 2: say someone gets up to 6 votes and suddenly the person who had voted him second, who claimed to have a real reason for voting, unvotes and tries to change the subject. Sometime later in the game you learn that the almost-lynched person is scum. Well, the person who unvoted him and caused the bandwagon to fall apart is likely scum, too. The point is that what happens today might not be useful until much later.

There are other trends to look for that are less reliable, and that the experienced players (mostly) know not to fall into. Scum often have different responses to being bandwagoned than townies do, though that tell is terribly unreliable. Scum will be trying to hop on bandwagons without seeming to, maintaining a plausible deniability by claiming that they were "convinced by so-and-so's argument." On the other hand, that's remarkably hard to tell from some townie who is actually convinced by the argument.

The best approach as town is to be scrupulously honest and forthright. If you find something someone says or does is scummy, then point it out, and vote for whomever you think is the worst. Understand that the reasons will you have on day 1 are always a lot less significant than what you would need to place a vote on another day.

An understand that the most likely result of day 1 voting is a townie being lynched. The first couple of bandwagons will probably collapse, and it won't be until people are really sick of Day 1 that one will hold up. However, if it happens to be on a scum, the other scum will (successfully) derail it. Those are the tells we'll be looking for later, the derailing of perfectly good bandwagons on people that we find out later were scum all along. The reason that these are reliable is that it is still in the best interests of the scum to derail these, even if it might point a finger at them later. Of course, they'll try to do it subtly and hope not to be noticed. And there are always legitimate reasons that a townie will derail a bandwagon, even incorrectly sometimes, so it's not 100%.

But without this horrible Day 1 nonsense, we don't have all that info later.
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 02, 2012 6:57 pm    Post subject: 102 Reply with quote

[quote="Zag"]
Raearia wrote:


The best approach as town is to be scrupulously honest and forthright.


Here here. For the first time in a long time I agree wholeheartedly with Zag. hint: TGC. Anywho I will be gone next week so unvote hopefully when I get back we will have something to go on.
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 02, 2012 7:20 pm    Post subject: 103 Reply with quote

Next lurker:

unvote spyrl
vote: esme
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training



PostPosted: Fri Nov 02, 2012 8:36 pm    Post subject: 104 Reply with quote

3iff wrote:
Unvote: Vote spyrl just to shake the tree a bit.

All I can think about is "Joker" by Steve Miller Band, and that's definitely not something you do with another man's wife!

In contrast with Zag, I believe it is acceptable to have the end of Day 1 come after everybody has chimed in. Really, I don't see that there will be much to look back on Day 1 even with the votes, so it should be over fairly quickly in order that conversations with substance can begin on Day 2. However, I really don't stress it much one way or the other--at least not until it's dragging on unnecessarily because there is an inordinate amount of people on here who think the same way and want to prolong the (nearly) inevitable town lynch. Generally, people speak up because they agree or disagree with a certain wagon, votes shift, another wagon builds steam which evokes responses and so on. I really get irate when the town is outing every power role possible in their lust for a Day 1 scum lynch, but I'll just hold my peace until that happens. Enthusiastic Grin
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 02, 2012 8:38 pm    Post subject: 105 Reply with quote

Zag wrote:
(However, in this trend that I contributed to, where everyone has some sort of power, it is somewhat less necessary.)
Zag, what did you mean by this? What trend are you referring to and how does that make day 1 conversations any more or less necessary?
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 02, 2012 9:18 pm    Post subject: 106 Reply with quote

spyrl wrote:
Zag wrote:
(However, in this trend that I contributed to, where everyone has some sort of power, it is somewhat less necessary.)
Zag, what did you mean by this? What trend are you referring to and how does that make day 1 conversations any more or less necessary?

Fairly early in my Mafia career (after I had only played 4 games, I think, and only two as town -- vanilla townie both times), I ran a game I called "Chocolate Mafia" in which I promised that there would be no vanilla townies. I did this out of frustration that, as a newbie vanilla townie, I felt I had no information at all and was just carried along for the ride. I felt that there was very little 'real' information to work with. I'm sure I wasn't the first to make a no-vanilla game, but it was my own thought. All the games I have run since have been the same, with no completely vanilla townies (though some have had pretty minor abilities).

When everyone has abilities, especially where there are a number with some sort of investigative abilities, there is less need to do the sort of analysis I was talking about in the last note, so there is less need to have a number of bandwagons on day one. Instead, you have real information, either from people being able to prove claims or with people having investigation results. Now that I am a better player, I see that there is real value in evaluating the Day 1 stuff, even if it is painful to go through while you're in it.
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The Great Crep'er
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 02, 2012 11:36 pm    Post subject: 107 Reply with quote

Undercover Monk wrote:

Here here. For the first time in a long time I agree wholeheartedly with Zag. hint: TGC.


And the continuing senseless beating of a dead horse continues. -_-
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Amb
Amb the Hitched.



PostPosted: Sat Nov 03, 2012 1:54 am    Post subject: 108 Reply with quote

Unvote JustInCase; Vote TGC

You want senseless beating of a dead horse? That can be arranged. You be the horse Enthusiastic Grin
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Sentran
Ray of Sucking Funshine



PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 3:05 pm    Post subject: 109 Reply with quote

Conversation appears to have ground to a complete halt. I understand natural lulls during weekends, but no posts at all in a game this size is odd to me. Are people running out of things to say now that the witty banter has ceased?
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 3:13 pm    Post subject: 110 Reply with quote

It is day one - always difficult. Lurker hunting is a good way to break the deadlock. A lurker had statistically just as much chance at being scum than anyone else, and their lack of posting makes it impossible to get a read on them.

The lack of willingness of players to join me on the esme vote is noted. I'd expect one or two scumbags by now to join this legit wagon - unless she is scum.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 6:18 pm    Post subject: 111 Reply with quote

I think that some of the argument for lurker lynching goes away since we tend to replace people who have dropped out. However, it is still worthwhile putting some pressure on them, just in case they are intentionally lurking in order to avoid detection.

Also, I never did think much of my vote on Amb. It was more of a "I think everyone should vote, so I should, too." and not because I felt I had found something important.

unvote Amb; vote esme
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Dragon Phoenix
Judge Doom



PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 7:25 pm    Post subject: 112 Reply with quote

Lovely. One scum caught.

Unvote esme
Vote Zag

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 8:18 pm    Post subject: 113 Reply with quote

Hmm, in the good old times, when I was active here, the first day went more like "first bandwagon, claim, disband bandwagon, second bandwagon, claim, lynch".

I am suspicious of the "we won't claim on the first day whatever happens" tactics. That is a tactic that only benefits the players concerned in the games that they are scum, but not the town. (Just as always claiming would.) The fact that there are no clear behavioural rules is the only thing that leaves wiggle room for errors of the scum.

I will reconsider my vote, but I would really like a vote-count first. Wasn't there a script in the good old times that did vote-counts?
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Amb the Hitched.



PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 8:58 pm    Post subject: 114 Reply with quote

Unvote; Vote Zag

Whatever happens, we need to get some traction. The game is at risk of stalling.
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Jedo the Jedi
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 9:46 pm    Post subject: 115 Reply with quote

It seems the raekuul wagon is dissolving, so I have been somewhat lazy waiting for a vote count to tell me which is the leading wagon.

On the face of your theory, esme, that does seem to be a reasonable argument. The problem I have with believing any claim on Day 1 is scum are going to lie and have a (hopefully) good-sounding claim too, so how are you going to differentiate between a legit claim and a fake claim on Day 1? I don't see any sense in giving the scum more information (they'll be the ones who know which are real and fake) than they already have.
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Amb
Amb the Hitched.



PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 10:17 pm    Post subject: 116 Reply with quote

Quote:

The problem I have with believing any claim on Day 1 is scum are going to lie and have a (hopefully) good-sounding claim too


Why do you hope the mafia's claim sounds good exactly? That's pretty suspicious...
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Amb
Amb the Hitched.



PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 10:19 pm    Post subject: 117 Reply with quote

See to me, that seems like a Freudian slip...

Unvote; Vote Jedo The Jedi pending some decent backpedalling.
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Jedo the Jedi
Paragon in Training



PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 10:28 pm    Post subject: 118 Reply with quote

I meant that in the sense that they wouldn't be a very good scum unless they make a good claim; in which case I suppose town would catch them easily and this would be a point in favor of esme's perspective. Looking back though, I see the word I was really meaning was "theoretically." The point being, any claim somebody makes (town or scum) should reasonably sound like a town role, and it still means only the scum are benefiting from the extra knowledge.
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Unintentionally offensive old coot



PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 11:00 pm    Post subject: 119 Reply with quote

Well, esme has replied, and lurking was my only reason for voting.
unvote esme

Dragon Phoenix wrote:
Lovely. One scum caught.

This 'Damsel in Distress' act -- oh, please come support me ... Hah! you supported me, you must be scum! -- is at the very least annoying if not downright scummy. It deserves a vote.

If you didn't really think your argument made sense, why did you make it? Let me point out that I was attacked and very nearly lynched on day 1 for a similar thing last game. I've decided that making an argument you don't believe in with the plan to accuse anyone who agrees with you is tantamount to lying.

Lynch all liars. vote Dragon Phoenix

In any case, all I agreed to was that it made some sense to put pressure on a lurker. Oh, I must be scum for that!
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 11:05 pm    Post subject: 120 Reply with quote

Amb wrote:
See to me, that seems like a Freudian slip...

Unvote; Vote Jedo The Jedi pending some decent backpedalling.

(removal of emphasis mine)

Amb, saying you're going to unvote if you're satisfied with the backpedalling is foolish. Jedo is great at it, as are many of us here. If you really thought it was a Freudian slip, then you should vote him and don't let him talk you out of it.

On the other hand, I didn't really think it was a slip of any sort. I'm not supporting Jedo, here, but I don't really think there is any reason to read anything into what he said.
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