Logic in the improbable courtmartial.

[Ghost Post]

Hi Folks,
Seems that no one is discussing this case(puzzle)? Oh well. I have a few things to point out about the puzzle that make the solution not work right, at least for me.

1. First off Puzzlania must be a really wierd place if 80%!! of the population is in the army. I mean that in most places 30% of the population (at least) are children, and would not be soldiers. And some children would look old enough to pass as soldiers, but since AGE is the consideration used by bureaucracies (as Puzzlania seems to be) they would still be civilians. So the proportions should be more like 60% soldiers to 40% civilians.

2. The defense seemed to be rather weak. No body was found (only evidence mentioned in the puzzle/case brief was a single eye-witness, which in and of itself is insufficient proof for anything, unless the witness is INCAPABLE of lying) so the witness may have been wrong about the victim's identity. Given the puzzle conditions, the witness can only be about 60% certain that the victim was dressed in green, which would get the General off easily.

3. Even if a body was found and it was dressed in green civilian clothes, it stands to reason that if Puzzlanian civilians can be armed vigilantes, then so could their wartime opponents. The absence of a gun from the victim when found (and even from the witness's testimony) is not sufficient for the prosecution to be able to prove the victim was unarmed, as the weapon may have gone unseen by the witness in the chaos of the event, and the killer may have taken the weapon (this is a war after all, and if it can be used against you...) with him. The case brief definitively specifies that the killer was never found, thus the blame falling on the commander, in this case the General.

Just some food for thought, from a purely mathematical standpoint the puzzle and solution are fine.

Phoenix the Xaositechno-Mage.

Order is chaos. Xaos is in balance. And Balance is ordered. --- The Phoenix Rising.