Mafia 46-Konfusion

[El Blobbo revived]

10 people, no more, no less, have suddenly been transported to an unknown town, and after confusedly watching the sunset, they each found a card, reading, "You know what to do."

Players:
[out]cubestudent[/out]

groza528
mith
Neo
quercitron
ralphmerridew
Soothsayer
sweetwater
Tyenar
wordcross
Zealot

Dead:
Zealot
ralphmerridew
Soothsayer

Rules: Mafia CAN be killed by a daytime majority or random night targeting.
The roles of the dead WON'T be revealed.
Players MAY reveal their night choices.

Roles:
5 unwitting mafia
2 unwitting docters
3 others, unknowingly powerless at night.

(Note: If the player balance is horrible, it's my spreadsheet's fault.)
It is night. Send in your choices (that's right, all of you)
(Second note: If you don't remember the rules, nobody knows what role they have)
[edit]Yeah. Stupid spreadsheet.[/edit]
[edit]Fixed that[/edit]



[This message has been edited by El Blobbo revived (edited 05-05-2002 06:55 AM).]

[wordcross]

Confirm

[ralphmerridew]

Shouldn't that statement be "10 people, no more, no less"?

Confirm.

[quercitron]

Confirm.

[groza528]

I was about to ask.
If you meant 11, I'm in

[sweetwater]

Sent

[wordcross]

sent

[El Blobbo revived]

Sorry groza, I keep on reading the side column of my spreadsheet.
We all send in one choice, that way, the game is more challenging.

[Zealot]

Confirm.

[DarknessFire]

willing to be replacement.

[cubestudent]

confirm.

[Tyenar]

I'd better confirm here so people don't think I am sending in a night choice.

------------------
Died 3 times in 2 nights in 1 game - Pokemafia

[cubestudent]

hee hee

[Soothsayer]

confirmed

[El Blobbo revived]

Update:
EBr has gone online. After a few days offline...

In other news, the third resident of this town, Zealot, was found decapited in bed. Police say the job was amatuer, but the evidence concealment was expert...

It is now day.

VOTE! (and give evidence and stuff like that.)

[Zealot]

Go town! Or wait, maybe I'm not town. Go whatever side I was on!

[cubestudent]

I targeted wordcross (no malice involved, it was random).

which means I still have no information as to whether or not I'm townie.

I suppose there are two or three people out there who think they're mafia, right now (and one of them could easily be wrong).

obviously, there's nothing to go on, so I will Vote: Neo for having the fewest letters in his name.

you're next, mith!!!

[Neo]

Hmm...

Lets see, Cube comes right out, states who he targetted, votes somebody else, and sets up another target....

Now the questions is, would cube target Zealot?

[cubestudent]

*yawns*

should I bother coming back with the fact that Neo's trying to attack logically in a game where there can be no logic until much later in the game?

or should I perhaps use the fact that he gave us absolutely no information about his activities in the night, when it's all (and a very small all it is) we have to go on?

[quercitron]

I targetted cubestudent.

Either:

A. I'm Mafia, and cubestudent wasn't the majority.
B. I'm a doc, and...nothing happened.
C. I'm just a Townie.

With all these facts in mind, vote: cubestudent
(RANDOM, people, RANDOM.)

[ralphmerridew]

When we have no hard information, the only thing we can use is ...

code:

---

cubestudent  :    Page/Pentacles    Lovers            


mith         :    Nine/Wands        Star              


Neo          :    Eight/Cups        Seven/Wands       


quercitron   :    Magician          Four/Cups         


ralphmerridew:    Knight/Pentacles  Wheel/Fortune     


Soothsayer   :    Ace/Pentacles     Knight/Wands      


sweetwater   :    Page/Swords       Death             


Tyenar       :    Five/Cups         Judgement         


wordcross    :    Nine/Cups         High Priestess    


Zealot       :    Ace/Swords        Five/Wands        

---

Quick analysis:
Lovers and Star sound positive, so mith and cubestudent are probably town. Magician is bad, so quercitron is probably mafia.

Also, I think it is slightly more likely that Zealot is town than mafia. (A townie would have 5 people who might vote for him, a mafia would have 4 people who might do so.) That means it is slightly more likely that I am mafia than town (5 remaining maf roles vs. 4 remaining town roles). So combining my reading with cubestudent's claim:

Vote: cubestudent
FOS: mith

Remember, similar logic applies to the rest of us. Mafia brothers, let's lynch the town!

[quercitron]

Umm...it also applies to cubestudent, meaning that we're more likely lynching a "Mafia brother" than a Townsperson.

[El Blobbo revived]

In response to cube's latest mail, one choice per night.

[ralphmerridew]

But

1) My Tarot readings suggest that cubestudent is town

2) cubestudent's target from the previous night is still alive

So cubestudent is likely a townie. DIE!

[mith]

[Neo]

Okay, my RNG has given me wordcross three times in a row. Maybe it's telling me something?

vote wordcross

BTW, i chose mith.

[mith]

Actually, now that I think about it...

Yes, there is a slightly higher chance each of us is Mafia. Though, what I am getting from your post is that you think you are Mafia (and based on more than just Tarot and goofy numbers, did you pick Zealot?), so it's back to 4-4 and maybe I'm more likely Townie since I didn't pick Zealot.

Also, to be honest, if I am Mafia, I don't care about lynching the Town, I just care about surviving. Whereas, if I am Town, I want the Mafia scum dead. So, even if there is a slightly better chance I am Mafia, I'd rather lynch those I think might be Mafia. So, Unvote: cubestudent, Vote: ralphmerridew. Take that, Maybe-Mafia Scum!

[mith]

(note: this is likely to get me targeted by everyone that picked Zealot last night. bah)

also, bah on you, Neo.

[Neo]

Sorry mith, I thought that everybody might target you...And if there was no death, I would be a doc...

[cubestudent]

*laughs out loud for twenty minutes*

I was actually thinking this would be rather boring, being so random and all, but the security that the game is mostly random, and the very high probability of winning that gives the mafia, and the consequent lack of any future pride or shame from winning or losing this game, makes this a wonderful venue for venting crap logic.

I'm going to assume I'm town for now, and agree with mith, that ralphm has done the only even slightly suspicious thing so far (which I would rate as making him 57% likely to be mafia, instead of the 55% the rest of us are sitting at).

so I will, unVote: Neo, and Vote: ralphmerridew.

[mathgrant]

Sounds fun. I hope there's another one!

[sweetwater]

If I'm likely mafia, I'd vote for someone who's likely doc.

Vote: Neo

Tonight I will target cubestudent.

[Soothsayer]

I honestly have no clue as to who to vote for.

vote: cubestudent - random first round voting

[cubestudent]

you don't need to call it random
I've got two votes already, and mith was voting me, then withdrew.

just call a bandwagon a bandwagon

[Tyenar]

I normally hate first rounds, but this is rediculous... Ah well, all the more fun.

I am suspicous of cubestudent for comming out immedatly saying who he picked. That kind of tactic will bring more confusion. But maybe it is good, it at least got people talking. It is just that a mafia could have targeted someone besides Zealot or a non mafia could have targeted Zealot, so that information is worthless. He already has two votes however, and in this small a game he shouldn't get a third yet so I will use my vast powers of deduction and...

Vote: Wordcross. (okay so it is just because he is the only one who hasn't posted yet.)

[cubestudent]

[edit][/edit]

I've got three votes, not two.

and you'll note I mentioned how useless my information is, too.
everyone's information is useless.

and trying to gauge people's reactions is largely useless, since most people can't even suspect what role they have, and those two or three that do, cannot know for certain what they are.

and, in fact, to make it all the worse, since I don't know what role I have, I cannot know which side I should even be trying to support. that's where the lion's share of the beauty in this game is located. I don't know whether I should be trying to lynch the mafia or not!... even if I thought I had one pegged!

the only tactic I think we should be following right now is to not kill the person with smilies all over his post.

[edit][/edit]



[This message has been edited by cubestudent (edited 04-24-2002 06:10 AM).]

[mith]

You can afford to die. Don't kill the person with *sad* smilies.

[wordcross]

Originally posted by mith:

---

You can afford to die

---

Because he's smiling and will die happy? lol

Now that i've posted, you can unvote me Tyenar

I picked Cubestudent last night, so i might as well be consistent.

Vote: Cubestudent

------------------
I do what my Rice Krispies tell me to...
And of course whatever EEEM says ...

[This message has been edited by wordcross (edited 04-24-2002 10:34 AM).]

[Tyenar]

Okay. UnVote: wordcross

hmm who should I vote for?

I know, Vote Mith because it wouldn't be a mafia game without someone voting for him for no particular reason.

I am sorely tempted to vote for Cubestudent just because of all the smiley faces but not yet. One more smiley face though...

------------------
Died 3 times in 2 nights in 1 game - Pokemafia

[mith]