Dilbert Mafia {Boss Mafia - Wins}

[Sparticus]

Oh, and in case you didn't get my point, I'll say it again: If we Elbonians were evil, you guys can't win this game. If we Elbonians are good, lynching Nauplius or wordcross would win the game for the town.

------------------
In my dice bag, I've got dice you've never even heard of. I have a d5, d7, d14, d16...I think I've even got a d1.

[Kazooish]

Deadline extension:

was tuesday evening

new deadline is undetermined, but we have discussion, so keep on discussing :-p, i will not impose a deadline unless there is a large lull in the conversations, or people just start to repeate themselves.....

[Corsato]

quote:

---

Scenario 1:
We Elbonians are evil, as is Nauplius. I get lynched. At night, by some stroke of luck, the doctor protects one person, but he himself gets killed (best case scenario, any worse would be doomed). If you're curious why one baddie wouldn't kill the other at night, read my Reply 229. Daytime. Elbonian/Carol/two townies. Elbonian or Carol gets lynched if the two townies join together to vote for one, at which point the second baddie joins in. Nighttime. One townie gets killed. Daytime. Elbonian or Carol/one townie. Not winnable

---

Let's take the best scenario:
We lynch you. 3 townies left, two baddies.
The two evil groups both attack the person, who is protected by the doc.
Tomorrow we'll have 3 townies, two baddies, this is a win, because the bad guys are known.

Let's take the worst case scenario:
We lynch Nauplius, Elbonians kill our doc, tomorrow is two-two, no lynch will happen, Elbonians win.

Another, likely scenario that could happen:
We lynch an Elbonian, and both killing groups kill a different person, including our doc. This leaves the interesting case where there's one townie, one evil elbonian and Carol left. Though it's not likely for us that we win, the outcome is unpredictable. The bad guys could kill eachother, giving the town the victory. Of course there will be no lynching, because the lynchin would make the town loose the game.

I hope you see my points here.

quote:

---

Scenario 2:
We Elbonians are evil, as is Nauplius. Nauplius gets lynched. At night, the doctor gets killed by Elbonians. Daytime. Two Elbonians/two townies. As previously discussed several times, no lynches are possible. Not winnable.

---

Exactly my point. That's why I refuse to vote for Nauplius. It would only make us loose.

quote:

---

Scenario 3:
We Elbonians are good, and Nauplius and wordcross are evil. Nauplius or wordcross gets lynched. At night, the doctor gets killed by the last baddie. Daytime. Last baddie/three townies. Easily winnable.

---

This is of course possible. But now you are saying that Alice is evil?? I think that would be unlikely, though not impossible.

quote:

---

quote:

---

A Carol/unknown killer/townie endgame can be won, but isn't likely.

---

Where did this come from This isn't one of our scenarios. The third scenario would be, if we lynch Nauplius, a Carol/three townie endgame. Easily winnable.

---

That's where you're wrong. Nauplius = Carol. So if we lynch Nauplius, Carol would be dead, leaving us with a killer we don't know, an unknown killer.

It has to be, because Alice would definately be in this game. And since noone else claimed to be Alice, Wordcross must be Alice. So what you are saying is that the Elbonians are good, and that Alice is evil. Though that's possible, I see no revidence to back up that claim.

Do you agree with the following roles:
RSA: Dawn
Corsato: Rex
Faeriefire: Elbonian
Sparticus: Elbonian
Wordcross: Alice
Nauplius: Carol

[Sparticus]

Thank you, Corsato. That's all I wanted you to do, explain your analysis. Now I understand what you are saying. Time for a rebuttal. But, before I do that...

quote:

---

Do you agree with the following roles:
RSA: Dawn
Corsato: Rex
Faeriefire: Elbonian
Sparticus: Elbonian
Wordcross: Alice
Nauplius: Carol

---

Yes, I agree. I know that Faerie and I are Elbonian, and, unless RSA has been lying this whole time, which is unlikely, RSA is Dawn. Corsato, you are probably Rex. Nauplius would be Carol, and that leaves Alice for wordcross. I have only scantily read a few Dilbert strips, so some of the names sound familiar, but these roles sound logical.

quote:

---

Another, likely scenario that could happen:
We lynch an Elbonian, and both killing groups kill a different person, including our doc. This leaves the interesting case where there's one townie, one evil elbonian and Carol left. Though it's not likely for us that we win, the outcome is unpredictable. The bad guys could kill eachother, giving the town the victory. Of course there will be no lynching, because the lynchin would make the town loose the game.

---

Yes, I didn't see this. Very good point. Let's look at the possibilities:
1) Townie is attacked twice. No lynch during day, and two killers kill each other the next night. Draw.
2) Townie is attacked, and one killer is killed. Other killer wins.
3) Killers attack each other. Townie wins.

Assuming that each killer chooses randomly, each surviving member has a 25% chance of a win, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 50% chance of a loss. Interesting scenario. However analyzing it is useless because if the remaining two killers are worth their salt, they will not target different people. They will both target the doc.

The resulting scenario is two townies and two separate killers. The two townies should not reach a conclusive vote, because they will be doomed. A no-lynch day. Then we have the possibilities:
1) One townie is targeted twice. Then you have the above scenario.
2) Each townie is targeted. This results in a draw.
3) One townie is attacked, and one killer is killed. The other killer will win.
4) Both killers attack each other, and the town wins.

This results in the following odds:
Town=Win 16.7%, Draw 27.8%, Lose 55.6%
Each killer=Win 38.9%, Draw 27.8%, Lost 33.3%

This is the actual scenario if Elbonians are evil and you lynch me. Not really good odds and rather unpredictible, as you stated, but the odds are there.

Now, if you decide to lynch Nauplius instead, you guarantee an Elbonian win. So, if you and RSA were to randomly decide on who to lynch for, your chances of winning are 8.3%, chances of drawing are 13.9%, and chances of losing are a whopping 77.8%.


But wait a moment! This is only if Elbonians are evil!!!!! I stress and stress and restress and stress yet again that these scenarios are only valid if Elbonians are evil. Your argument makes sense, though, but if you are going to go with that, the town has a 55.6% chance of losing. Pretty big if you ask me.

But, horror of all horrors, if Elbonians are actually good(gasp!), then your chances of winning if you lynch me are, well, the same as if Elbonians are evil, since you'll have two separate baddies and two townies left. Yes, the two remaining baddies would still both target the doc to maximize their chances. In the end, the scenario is the same if you lynch me. That's right, we come back to those W 16.7%/D 27.8%/L 55.6% chances.

However, if you lynch Nauplius are (let's see, pull out my calculator here, do a few mind-boggling calculations...) 100%!!!!!

So, RSA and Corsato, those are your choices.
1) Lynch me.
Win=16.7%
Draw=27.8%
Lose=55.6%

2) Lynch Nauplius.
a) Elbonians are good.
Win=100.0%
Draw=0.0%
Lose=0.0%

b) Elbonians are evil.
Win=0.0%
Draw=0.0%
Lose=100.0%


You figure it out.

------------------
In my dice bag, I've got dice you've never even heard of. I have a d5, d7, d14, d16...I think I've even got a d1.

[Sparticus]

[Sparticus]

Okay, thinking this through, I have thought of a compromise. Have this be a no-lynch day. Here are the resulting possibilities:

I-Elbonians are good
a) Both remaining killers target two separate people, who die.
This results in a two separate killer/two townie scenario. I already analyzed that, and that is really what you, Corsato, are already shooting for.

b) Both remaining killers target one person. Or, one killer attacks a protected person, and the other attacks somebody else.
Yay! Three townies vs. two killers! We win!

Note that, as I have repeated many times, the killers will not risk killing each other tonight.

II-Elbonians are evil
a) Carol and the Elbonians target two separate people, who die.
Regardless, the town loses. One townie will have to go up against Carol and two Elbonians (Faerie and me). Not winnable. In fact, the victory, I believe, would be assured for the Elbonians.

b) Carol and the Elbonians target the same person, or one targets a protected person.
Now we have two townies vs. Carol and the Elbonians. Things can go really crazy here, and I don't want to bother with the possibilities.

c) The Elbonians target the doc, and Carol targets an Elbonian.
This is the most likely scenario. Once again, you are left with two townies vs. Carol and one Elbonian. Once again, this is your desired scenario.

------------------
In my dice bag, I've got dice you've never even heard of. I have a d5, d7, d14, d16...I think I've even got a d1.

[Sparticus]

Yeah, so what. I'm posting a lot today.

Question to the mod: if someone is protected by a doc, and that person is targeted twice, will that person die?

------------------
In my dice bag, I've got dice you've never even heard of. I have a d5, d7, d14, d16...I think I've even got a d1.

[Kazooish]

yes they will die if targeted twice, though it will be stated in such a way that it will be obvious they were targeted twice.


X happened but thankfully Y intervened, but then suddenly Z happened and X dies

you know what i mean.


And a no lynch....i suppose if you all vote: no lynch ill let you send a sock puppet to marketing instead....im sure they wont notice one sock puppet...

[Beartalon]

PHB says: "There's a two-drink minimum in Marketing; if you send a sock puppet, make sure it brings it's own liquor."

[wordcross]

One thing i can't believe i've forgotten:
What exactly do the dino's do? I know that being two out of three alters whatever effect you have on your target, since Bob said so earlier, but what exactly can you do? I mean, one would assume from that statement that wedgies do something, even with just two dino's left, but what? That might make a difference tonight.

I want to go back to something Corsato mentioned earlier, about a three player end scenario.

Okay: Assuming for a moment that we end up with a one town two evil end, with both of the evil roles being separate (i.e. not both elbonian evil, if such turns out to be the case.)

All three players wants to win.
1) The Townie will not want to kill off one of the bad roles because then the other will kill him that night. Vote: Nolynch in the hopes that the evil roles will kill each other off. It's his only chance.
2) The evil roles will not lynch the townie unless they are satisfied with a tie. Assuming that they want to win, they cannot lynch the townie. Since the townie will not help either of them lynch the other, they will have to be satisfied with a No Lynch vote.

That night: If an evil role chooses to kill the townie, he is trusting that the other evil role will not choose to kill him, therefore handing him the win. Same with the other evil role. We all know that honor among thieves is very scant, so it would be a very tentative truce for them to both trust that the other would kill townie. This also makes it a tie.

If the townie plays it right, he might be able to pull it off.

I know there are a lot of assumptions, but it's plausible. I'm also assuming that the mod will allow a tie, but it's very likely that he will, because then there is no fair way to decide a two evil role end game.

So then how to get to this scenario?

code:

---

 I)Elbonians are good


   A)Nauplius is Elbonian


     1)Spart or FF is Carol, the other is some other evil role.


       a)Assuming this is the case, We lynch either one and the town has 


         assured victory.


       b)For stupidity's sake, the end scenario above could be achieved by 


         lynching an innocent and having both evil roles kill off unprotected


         separate targets.


   B)Spart and FF are Elbonian


     1)Nauplius is Carol, Alice is evil


       a)Kill Naup or Me and town is assured victory.


       b)same as above for said endgame.


II)Elbonians are evil


   A)Nauplius is Elbonian


     1)Spart or FF is Carol, the other is some good role.


       a)Kill Nauplius, town is assured victory.


       b)Figure out who is Carol, lynch her, and town is assured victory.


       c)yada yada endgame yada yada


   B)Spart and FF are Elbonian


     1)Nauplius is Carol


       a)Kill Nauplius


         i) Spart and FF kill unprotected good role, they win.


         ii)Spart and FF fail due to protection, town wins.


       b)Kill Spart or FF


         i)  Two separate kills on unprotected renders endgame scenario above


         ii) Both kill same person or one picks a protected role: Day NoLynch


             -both pick separate targets, they win with tie.


             -both pick same target, then scenario above.


         iii)both pick protected person and town wins.

---

I'm too tired right now to figure out what this all means for today, but maybe someone can run with it. I think i've covered most of the likely and some unlikely scenarios, but i'm sleepy, i might have missed something. Maybe someone can run with what i've got so far and tell us what to regardless of who is lying.

I'm gonna die tonight. It's almost certain, since i'm the doc. I'll have mafia food painted on my back. It seems revealing my role before thinking all this out might possibly have spelled my own end Oh well. Go town and all.

For now, I'll Unvote: Sparticus but We shall have to see what kind of developments unfold.

------------------
I'm not an actor, but i play one on TV.
GLih8evilstuff: I hope you never call me, my caller ID would explode.
I don't suffer from insanity, i enjoy every minute of it.

[Ghost Post]

wedgies have no function other than telling us someone's role. the fewer of us there are left, the lower the quality of the wedgie (some baddies can lie if the wedgie is low quality)

[Corsato]

Sparticus is right by saying that I'm aiming at a one townie two evil endgame. It's our only chance if the Elbonians are evil. And I do believe you are, mainly because I do not think Alice would be an evil role.

The only thing we have to determine today is whether or not the Elbonians are evil.
If they are, our only chance is the above scenario. If they are not, we can win now by lynching Nauplius, and Wordcross tomorrow.

The calculations about our winning chances are theoratically correct, but fail in this 'real life' situation.

As RSA pointed out, we can find out somebody's role. This is useless, because the roles are already known.

I do not think a no-lynch would be wise, because it would only postpone the decision we eventually have to make.

[Faeriefire]

Corsato, where did you first come up with the idea that Elbonians were evil? If they were evil, why would Nauplius have claimed it in the first place?
Doesn't this prove our innocence?

[Corsato]

Because he didn't know they were evil?? Because he didn't know there were more left?? Because he thought he could get away it?? Because he knew he would get lynched as Carol??

Need more reasons??

No, it does not proove your innocence. I'd like to explain that to you, but you should think about it yourself first .

[Faeriefire]

Gaaah!! I'm no good at this logic stuff, but I'll give it a try.
Nauplius obvious thought the Elbonians were a mason group, otherwise he wouldn't have claimed to be one, plus he thought they were good.
I'm simple minded, so bear with me, but I don't imagine him thinking, "Well, I'll claim to be Elbonian since I'm Carol. The Elbonians are a mason group and there are bound to be more than the one that was killed, so they'll call my bluff. But, someone will come up with the idea that maybe the Elbonians are evil. That way I can save myself for a day or more by having one of them lynched . . . blah blah blah (calculations)."
I highly doubt he would have been able to predict someone suggesting Elbonians as evil. Maybe that's just me. I know the above probably contains many flaws, but it's the best I can do.

[Corsato]

He couldn't say he was Carol, because Carol is evil. So he had to go for another role. Not knowing what other roles are he thinks Elbonian would be safe to claim, since the only known Elbonian is dead. Too bad for him there are Elbonians left.

[Nauplius]

I didn't say I was Carol because I'm not Carol, I'm the last Elbonian and Sparticus and Faeriefire are lying scum.

This will be my last post here because I'm remodeling my house right now and I won't have internet access for some time. I'll leave you with this though:

1. I'm telling the truth:
a. you lynch me the town loses.
b. you lynch Sparticus the town wins.

1. I'm lying:
a. wordcross is good, you lynch me the town loses.
b. wordcross is good, you lynch Sparticus the town still has a chance.

a. wordcross is evil, you lynch me the town wins.
b. wordcross is evil, you lynch Sparticus the town still has a chance.

As you can see the towns best chance is to lynch Sparticus today, unless you think Alice is evil. Unfortunately I won't be able to see how this turns out for a while, so if you do the smart thing and lynch Sparticus then I'll need to be replaced.

[Kazooish]

ok naup, ill find you a replacement....depending on who gets lynched.

Deadline Friday midnight EST

Options:

Lynch
or
No Lynch (send them a sock puppet)

[Corsato]

You are evil because:
1) A 2 person mason group is pretty useless. So it's probably not in the game.
2) Faeriefire and Sparticus are in the same group or they wouldn't back eachother up (why would they??). Since they claim to be Elbonian, you are evil.
3) Carol must be in this game (just as alice), which means that you must be alice.

I agree with you that lynching Sparticus is better then lynching you .

[wordcross]

Corsato, are you drunk? Just curious

Why must Naup be Alice? I thought we already established that I'm Alice. I know i tend toward Schizophrenia, but i doubt i'm mistaken about this... Did you maybe mean to say "Carol" since that makes more sense?

I also find it strange that in a game where every group or individual has some sort of ability, that the Elbonians have none, regardless of how many there are/were. If they have an ability, a two person Group isn't so difficult to believe.

Are you going to vote yet if you think lynching Sparticus is better?

I've confused myself by now. I suppose it's all down to who you believe. I'm tending more toward Sparticus and FF, but it's entirely possible that they saw that all four good roles had been claimed, and so both of them realized that they had to stick together. I've seen that happen before too. Their either both good, in which case the Elbonian claim is true, or they're both bad, and the Elbonian claim is possible going-on probable, but not altogether necessary.

------------------
I'm not an actor, but i play one on TV.
GLih8evilstuff: I hope you never call me, my caller ID would explode.
I don't suffer from insanity, i enjoy every minute of it.

[This message has been edited by wordcross (edited 01-15-2003 11:12 PM).]

[Corsato]

I stand corrected, Carol was what I meant.
I'm getting confused as well. I'm convinced that everyone is who he says, but I do not know their alignment.

Haven't I voted for Sparticus yet?? Thought I had. Ah well, I might as well wait until I made up my mind.

[wordcross]

ah yes, you did vote for Sparticus. Last page. i'd quite missed it.

*sigh*

what to do what to do... What does RSA think of all this by now? He hasn't said a word other than to say "don't vote Corsato" and then explaining what a wedgie does.

[This message has been edited by wordcross (edited 01-16-2003 06:42 AM).]

[Bear Skin Rug]

...it makes your underwear slide WAAAAAAAAY up your ass, causing an unpleasant sensation. Powerwedgies are when you actually lift the person off the ground using their own underwear. I fool them all, though - I don't wear underwear.

[Kazooish]

<<wipes his dirty feet on the bear skin rug>>

something like 33ish hours left till deadline...currently spart is in the lead.

hers an actual vote count

2 spart (corsato & Naup)
2 naup (spart & fairie)

Not voted : RSA & WORDCROSS

[Kazooish]

my mistake thats not a lead thats a tie :-p

[Corsato]

I'd like an extension on the deadline. There's still discussion, so there's no need for a deadline IMHO. Please take it in consideration.

And, I'm really curious about the thoughts of RSA, and if Wordcross is still going to vote.

[Kazooish]

ok, you want it, you get it.

<<slaughters previous deadline>>

keep talking, who needs deadlines psshhhht

[Corsato]

Thank you, we will not disappoint you.

[wordcross]

bah, fine.

Vote: Sparticus

I'll leave it in RSA's hands now.

[Corsato]

I would really feel stupid if you would turn out to be evil.

[Ghost Post]

well, i really have no clue, so i'll just vote:spart

[Sparticus]

What a way to go out. Sent to marketing because the last person who could save me has absolutely no clue what to do. Ah, well. I was so close to winning my first mafia game.

Good luck to the rest of the office, because you'll probably need it! And good luck to Faerie, maybe you'll survive to the end.

------------------
In my dice bag, I've got dice you've never even heard of. I have a d5, d7, d14, d16...I think I've even got a d1.

[Kazooish]

Marketing comes and drags off spart down into the depths of the marketing department, youve sent an Elbonian to marketing...you hear him saying "quality quality quality" as he goes.

Who knows what will happen now! <<spooky horror sounds>>

it is now Night.....dont really need to impliment a night deadline...hopefully get the choices relitivly quickly, and will start day soon as i have them...

[Kazooish]

O and the revealed role is

Phil - Darn one person daily, that person may not vote

Hmm we need a replacement for naup i just realised...ok this night might take a bit longer than i thought......is anyone actually still following the game?....depending on the players who are still following they might be able to replace...

i dont know, ill find someone...

[Ghost of Sparticus]

GAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH......

------------------
I was Sparticus.

[Bear Skin Rug]

Hey! No ectoplasm on the pelt!

[Kazooish]

still missing choices....common people....there are only a few people left in the game...cant we all just make our choices quickly, and not take a week?

[Kazooish]

ok...im going to send out e-mail now to the people WHO ARNT SENDING IN THEIR GOD DAMN CHOICES!

[Kazooish]

you awake, get showered and head in to the office....where you find a horrible sight, RSA Dawn The Dino lying in a pool of blood with a huge cross bow bolt sticking out of his back....ouch

But thats it, supprisingly no one else is dead...

marketing needs someone!
3 to lynch!

[Corsato]

RSA and I did a wedgie on Wordcross, and he is the MOTIVATIONAL LIER BOSS, or at least that's the result we've got.
I really hope it's not true.

Anyway, voting Nauplius would be the way to continue, because it's crystalclear he isn't an Elbonian.
Vote: Nauplius