Mini-Mafia in Isengard (Game over, Fellowship wins)

[Porro]

- unless one of them has Godfather immunity

[casinopete]

eep. been more than 24 hours, but it doesn't look like I've been formally replaced yet, so:

The owner of the house I'm renting has passed on, and part of settling his affairs includes kicking me out. So life has turned very hectic, and I find myself with no spare time at all. This actually means I'll be dropping out of pretty much every other game but this one and mini-23 over on mafiascum, because both of them should finish before I lose my access. That's why I've been so quiet.

But, back to the game. As was mentioned, MattV was very quickly the second vote on two different people today, and when it takes only four votes to kill, that just seems either evil or criminally irresponsible. I'll wait a little to see what Porro does, but I'll probably end up voting for MattV pretty soon.

[Polotet]

Thanks for clearing me, Porro.

I'm sticking with MatthewV for now. I mean, anyone can claim an orc. He might be lying, he might not, but his role claim does nothing to swing me toward the not side.

[Porro]

I'm very keen to hear theories from the confirmed innocents, since they're the only players I trust at present.

[Porro]

Originally posted by quercitron:

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I think Gaspode is bad.
I also think MatthewV is bad.
I then think casinopete is bad.

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Originally posted by Polotet:

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Hm. I'm suspicious of Gaspode, but I don't think his immediately voting a lurker rather than himself makes him more suspicious, so my vote stays where it is.

and

I'm sticking with MatthewV for now. I mean, anyone can claim an orc. He might be lying, he might not, but his role claim does nothing to swing me toward the not side.

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Is there anyone else that looks suspicious to you, and anyone (other than myself) that you reckon is least suspicious?

I'd like everyone to retract their votes for now, so we can bounce about a few theories, before lynching. As I said previously q's fear of a quick lynch did seem logical, plus he's innocent so he's got no ulterior motive for the logic.

I'm also open to suggestions on who to investigate tonight (just in case I live )

[Sparticus]

Okay. Unvote: MatthewV. Other than my previously stated suspicions of MatthewV, I don't have any real theories.

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In my dice bag, I've got dice you've never even heard of. I have a d5, d7, d14, d16...I think I've even got a d1.

[Polotet]

I think my main suspicions are Gaspode and MatthewV. But, if you want, I'll unvote: MatthewV for now.

[Porro]

Thanks guys. Keep the theories coming.
Anyone got any sort of 'feel' for who is innocent?

[Gaspode]

unvote: casinopete because he had a decent reason for being silent. Now what?

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You can't lose if you win.

[Gaspode]

Polotet, why are you so suspicious of me, anyway? All I did that could possibly look scummish was try to catch up on a role claim.

[Porro]

Originally posted by Gaspode:

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Now what?

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Hells bells man. Read the posts on the page. Now we talk. State who we think are suspicious, and state who we think are innocent. Pull yourself together man

[quercitron]

I vote we all make a list of all seven people, from most likely guilty in our eyes to most likely innocent. There's no reason to refuse to do so.

GUILTY...

1. Gaspode
2. casinopete
3. MatthewV
4. Sparticus
5. Polotet
6. Porro
7. quercitron

INNOCENT...

[Polotet]

Guilty

MatthewV
Gaspode
casinopete
Sparticus
Quercitron
Porro
Polotet

Innocent

Pretty similar to yours, Quercitron.

[MatthewV]

first, unvte everyone i think was voting for gaspode

I think that these are the most likely people to be guilty
gaspode
sparticus
pete/pete's replacement (I wont vote for replacement cause it sucks reading the thread and then dying. )

and innocent
porro and the two people he came out with

Courk goes in the mid.

sorry about being gone for a few days

[ralphmerridew]

No votes at present.
No deadline at present, either.

Tilforder.

[Sparticus]

Guilty

MatthewV
Gaspode
casinopete
Polotet and quercitron
Porro
Sparticus (of course )

Innocent

MatthewV: Courk? I didn't know he was playing. Were you perhaps referring to another game by accident?

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In my dice bag, I've got dice you've never even heard of. I have a d5, d7, d14, d16...I think I've even got a d1.

[Sparticus]

Added note: casinopete would be above Gaspode, but then he talked, so I guess they would be about the same-ish. I dunno. They aren't very certain in my mind.

[casinopete]

Guilty

MatthewV
Sparticus/Gaspode
Polotet
Quercitron
Porro
casinopete

Innocent

the ugly "Sparticus/Gaspode" is because I don't think either has been particularly suspicious, but since I trust Porro and his claim of Quercitron's and Polotet's innocence, at least one of them must be a baddie.

oh, and, regarding the replacement question: I'm not dropping out of this game. I think my announcement got misunderstood. When you get kicked out of a place for reasons other than bad tenantship, generally (and in this case), they give you a month to get your things together and find a new place. And I'll have 'net access for at least the next two weeks, so I shouldn't have any trouble finishing either of my minigames.

[MatthewV]

well, I can see the logic in voting for me. I changed my vote on this day. many people find it scum-like. Almost all the players in this game are scum at this point. I shouldnt be surprised that Im being accused.

In the past, i was confusing parts of this game with another (past= last post)
I will remake my list as follows
Casinopete
Gaspode
Sparticus

MatthewV
Porro
Polotet
quercitron

Really, its not that hard. All we must do is take one of the remaining three and kill them. Accuracy shoud be either 100% if there is three mafia or 66% if there is two. and of course, almost none if porro lies.

of course there is more:

At the beginning of the day, both Sparticus and Gaspode had two votes on them. And they both had two votes on them long enough for people to see them (ie they were there for about a day each) One of the votes was mine (again for each of them) As far as I know it, these are facts.
now...all it would have taken is two smart mafia to jump of either of them. This would have been easy AND safe. (safe because they would win at this point even with their scumlike action) This didnt happen. So...do we have lazy/stupid mafia or were the people targetted at the start mafia?

now, i think that either gaspode or sparticus is scum. Possiblely both. If we have three mafia members, then both is possible. If we have two mafia members, one is more likely. Either way, casinopete is mafia in my mind.

well, you know it is now 4:12 am. I really should be getting sleep...hehe never

I will gladly explain more if needed.

[casinopete]

Originally posted by MatthewV:

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of course there is more:

At the beginning of the day, both Sparticus and Gaspode had two votes on them. And they both had two votes on them long enough for people to see them (ie they were there for about a day each) One of the votes was mine (again for each of them) As far as I know it, these are facts.
now...all it would have taken is two smart mafia to jump of either of them. This would have been easy AND safe. (safe because they would win at this point even with their scumlike action) This didnt happen. So...do we have lazy/stupid mafia or were the people targetted at the start mafia?

---

I think the best explanation for the lack of a kill here is that one or two of the mafiosi already had their votes tied up. Specifically, I mean that if you and Gaspode are mafia, the kill didn't happen because you couldn't have gotten the votes for Sparticus, and wouldn't have killed Gaspode, and if you and Sparticus are the mafia, then vice versa.

If nothing else, MatthewV, why am I more likely than Gaspode? Operating on sheer logic from your point of view: if you were innocent, then Gaspode and I or Gaspode and Sparticus are the only two possible combinations, because if it were Sparticus and I, then we would have voted Gaspode out. Therefore, if you're innocent, Gaspode must be mafia.

Of course, I don't think you're innocent, for the very logic you mentioned but didn't carry to the natural conclusion above. And actually, I'm starting to lean toward Sparticus over Gaspode, because for some reason the early votes today just feel more solid if Sparticus is your partner rather than Gaspode.

[Porro]

Gaspode seems to top(ish) a lot of those lists. Have you got a list, or anything to say in your defence Gaspode?

[quercitron]

Hmm. In regards to MatthewV, anyone who writes a list of suspicion and doesn't put himself at the most innocent level is stretching their credibility in my eyes.

I will happily lynch either V or Gaspode today.

[Gaspode]

I have a list and everything, but I need to fine-tune it, and I'm going out for about an hour. I'll send it in when I get back.

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You can't lose if you win.

[Gaspode]

Sorry, I haven't gotten a chance to check this game much lately. Anyway, here's my list:

MatthewV
Casinopete
Sparticus
Polotet
Quercitron
Porro
Gaspode

MatthewV, first you say you can see the logic in voting for you, then you put yourself fourth on your own list. Is there any reason for us not to believe you're scum? And please explain the following:

Originally posted by MatthewV:

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Almost all the players in this game are scum at this point.

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Porro: I don't have much in the way of a defense, because I am only an orc. But I'd like to say that the only thing I am guilty of is trying to get the facts straight. I would still like to hear exactly why Polotet thinks I'm scum, by the way. It seems like the town has found many more reasons to be suspicious of MatthewV.

I think we should lynch MatthewV, because, according to Casinopete himself, I would be dead if pete and Sparticus were both scum. That leaves five possible combinations of mafia (as long as there are only two left):

MatthewV/Casinopete
MatthewV/Sparticus
Gaspode/Casinopete
Gaspode/Sparticus
MatthewV/Gaspode

If we lynch MatthewV today, we'll definitely have one less scum (I know this because I know I am innocent). Then, Porro can investigate any one of the three of us that are left, and we'll have a 50/50 shot of getting scum tomorrow. Even if we get only one scum between today and tomorrow, we should have a two to one advantage over the mafia on the last day, preferably with confirmed innocents alive.

This may sound ridiculous, but are we sure that Porro is town? There is still the outside chance that he is mafia with Polotet and Quercitron. Just consider it a possibility--I'm not saying lynch any of them; I believe them too.

Now, I know this may all sound like a desperate defense post, but I haven't posted in awhile, so I have a lot to say. Take it all as what it is--some theories and ideas (and a role claim/defense, of course).

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You can't lose if you win.

[MatthewV]

Some things about my list that some people dont see to like:
a- i didnt include myself on the first one. I feel there is no reason to do so.
b-i put myself "fourth" on the other. Notice the bla like? It devives possible evil and possible good.

The quote gaspode used- 3 poeple look very innocent (I bet porro being a cop is true because nobody has also claimed cop). I know im innocent. That leave either 3 scum or 2 scum and an innocent out of three people

And there is a major f with Gaspodes sitations. That Im innocent, which leaves him as being the person in every situation.

At this moment I would vote for Sparticus.
And on a scale of one to ten for innocenne, Im about 250

[Porro]

Ok.

The way I see our situation is like this:

We probably have 3 mafia. If there were 4 they would have already won, and 2 seems too few.

Therefore, if the town lynches an innocent at any point from now on, the mafia win.

In the town's favour, we have a reasonable amount of information to analyse from each player.

It also probably makes sense that no mafia player would have voted for another mafia player today. It could create a successful bandwaggon, and with the numbers at 4:3, that fear could outweigh any tactical advantage to be gained from voting for one of your own to appear innocent (but that's not 100% certain, after all if a mafioso voted for one of his colleagues now, and the cop died at night, he'd probably be in the clear until the end of the game).

The town only has a teensy weensy chance of winning at this point.

[Porro]

Now, with the above points in mind, I thought it was worth trying to dupe a mafioso into showing his hand.

I said I had 2 innocents. In fact I've only got 1.

The question is, did the mafioso fall for the rouse, and think he's either immune to investigation,or the mod made an error,or I'm a naive cop. If he didn't fall for it his 'most guilty' will be mafia. I just hope he did fall for it, and tried to protect his mafia buddies by listing his 'most guilty' as townies.

At least we'll get one of the scum
Vote: Polotet

p.s. Because he voted for MatthewV, I tend to think MatthewV is a townie.

Based on Polotet's list, and hoping he fell for the rouse, FOS: Sparticus and casinopete

NB Sparticus also voted for MatthewV, and his list places casinopete in the 'less guilty' area. casinopete also tries to throw suspicion off Sparticus, stating he hasn't been particularly suspicious.

[Sparticus]

Very clever, Porro. Vote: Polotet

As for my placement of casinopete in my "more innocent" area, I actually wasn't too sure about him. He was acting suspiciously silent, but then he spoke up with an excuse, so I didn't want to throw any more suspicion on him. I mean, think about it. You can't access this forum for a period of time, and you come back, only to find yourself lynched a day later.

And actually, casinopete also claimed that Gaspode was acting "unsuspiciously", in addition to myself. He didn't single me out.

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In my dice bag, I've got dice you've never even heard of. I have a d5, d7, d14, d16...I think I've even got a d1.

[ralphmerridew]

Current count:

Polotet: 2 (Porro, Sparticus)

[Gaspode]

Wow, Porro. Nice plan. I had been suspicious of Polotet the whole game, and I was almost disappointed when you cleared him. (If you'll notice, he was the most suspicious of the "confirmed" innocents on my list.) Also, he STILL has not answered my question, which I have asked him two or three times: Why are you so suspicious of me, Polotet?

Anyway, vote: Polotet. I hope Porro isn't a mafioso sending us on a wild goose chase...

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You can't lose if you win.

[Polotet]

Hold on. I'm not sure if I understand. You actually got me as guilty? If you did, are you sure you're sane?

[Sparticus]

Porro: Out of curiosity, what is it that makes you think MatthewV is innocent?

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In my dice bag, I've got dice you've never even heard of. I have a d5, d7, d14, d16...I think I've even got a d1.

[MatthewV]

Well...very nice. I feel releaved.

This will make 3/4
vote Polotet

I wouldnt be doing this, but I know my next chance to see the forum will either be mid day tommarrow or wednesday. By that time, everything will be done. 101 problems with being in alaska...

[MatthewV]

double post to say that my next two choices would be Sparticus and Casinopete.

[ralphmerridew]

These last few days have been rough, watching the Fellowship steadily go through your numbers, which is why you all appreciate the small bowl of hobbit stew served with dinner tonight. Or at least most of you think so.

Polotet - Pippin (Fellowship) has been lynched.

It is night, please send your choices.

[Polotet]

But I'm Pippin, I'm good... Oh, wait...

[MatthewV]

one sheep...two sheep...four sheep...oh my!
(sorry I cant count)

[ralphmerridew]

However, the celebration last night seems hollow now. Lord Porro Saruman is dead, slain by the Fellowship. He must be avenged!

There are five people alive, 3 to lynch.

alive:
casinopete
Gaspode
MatthewV
quercitron
Sparticus

dead:
Planky - Orc (Townie), killed night 1
Dragon Phoenix - Orc (Townie), lynched day 1
amb - Orc (Townie), killed night 2
Beartalon - Orc (Townie), lynched day 2
mikegoo - Uruk-Hai (Doctor), killed night 3
Polotet - Pippin (Fellowship), lynched day 3
Porro - Saruman (Cop), killed night 4

[Porro]

AVENGE ME my orks!

[Porro]

p.s. (spoiler if you haven't seen/read The Two Towers)

When do I get to come back to life like that wimp Gandalf did?