Mini-Mafia in Isengard (Game over, Fellowship wins)

[Beartalon]

Randomness sucks.

[casinopete]

I don't think the key to the logic of following the cop's random vote is quite as simple as being a {2 or 3}/9 chance vs. a {2 or 3}/10 chance. . . because, assuming we are trusting the cop's claim to be true, we all "know" he is an innocent, so all of our random votes will also be {2 or 3}/9. It's more a matter of trusting that the cop's random vote truly is a random vote. I shall explain further.

For simplicity's sake, I will use 3 instead of {2 or 3} in my example.

Say we consider following a random player's random vote. That player has a 3/9 chance of targeting a mafioso. . . if he's actually a townie. We must also factor in the 3/9 chance that he's actually a mafioso himself! This means that in following his vote, we've only got a (6/9)*(3/9) = 18/81 = 22.2% chance of getting a mafioso, as opposed to the 33.3% we'd get by following our cop.

Therefore, if we trust our cop's claim to being a cop, and find no other logical reasons for targetting a specific person, we should follow his lead in voting.

Of course, 33.3% still isn't the best of odds, so it would be best to discuss things further. But if no one ends up catching my eye as particularly suspicious, I think I'll end up throwing in with Porro.

[Porro]

amb is loyal to Isengard.

My vote for DP was random. That's why I said it was random

[ralphmerridew]

BearTalon: 2 (amb, Sparticus)
casinopete: 1 (BearTalon)
DP: 3 (MatthewV, mikegoo, Porro)
Porro: 2 (Polotet, quercitron)
Sparticus: 1 (DP)

silent: Gaspode
nobody: casinopete

Tilforder
If Gaspode does not post within 24 hours, he will be replaced.

[This message has been edited by ralphmerridew (edited 01-28-2003 05:33 PM).]

[Gaspode]

AAH! Sorry, I haven't had a chance to read the thread lately. I guess I'll vote: DP because there's nothing better to go on right now.

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You can't lose if you win. (Or if the mod disappears into thin air before the end of the game.)

[Sparticus]

Um...unless I missed something, or unless he has some special power, Polotet shouldn't have two votes.

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In my dice bag, I've got dice you've never even heard of. I have a d5, d7, d14, d16...I think I've even got a d1.

[Polotet]

Mwah-ha-ha! I will lynch all of you at once with my multiple vote powers! Just kidding. I never voted DP. And Unvote: Porro. I'll hold my vote, for now.

[Beartalon]

Vote me, vote for a townie. Same thing.

[quercitron]

Unvote: Porro.

Thinking.

[ralphmerridew]

BearTalon: 2 (amb, Sparticus)
casinopete: 1 (BearTalon)
DP: 4 (Gaspode, MatthewV, mikegoo, Porro)
Sparticus: 1 (DP)

no vote: casinopete, Polotet, quercitron
No deadline at present.

[Amb]

unvote BT
Vote DP

Roleclaim?

Only 1 away from being lynched?

[Dragon Phoenix]

Can't argue with the logic of voting for me. Can't do a spectacular role claim either. I am an orc (townie).

[Porro]

unvote:DP
Sounds plausible, the orc thing and all. Unless we have some other 'townie' out there who can tell us that 'orc' is not the official designation for a townie?

[mikegoo]

If you look at post 1 under the list of dead people it says

[Porro]

My bad.
vote:DP

[Dragon Phoenix]

As I said, I can't fight the logic and I am perfectly OK with being lynched, except that it is not good for Isengard.
You might want to consider my defence - usually, when I am scum, I come up woth a strange but quite believable role claim.

[ralphmerridew]

BearTalon: 1 (Sparticus)
casinopete: 1 (BearTalon)
DP: 4 (amb, Gaspode, MatthewV, Porro)
Sparticus: 1 (DP)

no vote: casinopete, mikegoo, Polotet, quercitron
No deadline at present.

Tilforder

[Amb]

Now I will hold my vote on DP.

[mikegoo]

Actually I've changed my mind...the worst that happens here is we lynch a not so important role. Trying to start another bandwagon could lead to a second important role having to reveal themselves (not good for the town).

vote: DP

[Gaspode]

unvote: DP and vote: mikegoo. I believe DP's claim, and Goo doesn't seem to really want to try to get scum.

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You can't lose if you win.

[Polotet]

Hmm. I don't like it when people say "I'm not scum, because if I were, I'd be defending myself in this way instead of that way." It's not a valid argument. So Vote: DP.

[Dragon Phoenix]

*shrugs*

Whatever.

[quercitron]

Fair enough. Vote: DP

[ralphmerridew]

After yo-yoing back and forth, the crowd finally decides that DP is no longer worthy to live. He shrugs, almost resigned to his fate, as the crowd drags him to a tree and strings him up.

Orc Dragon Phoenix (Townie) has been lynched.

It is night, please send your moves.

[Slain Dragon Phoenix]

Bah.

[MatthewV]

that sucks- i couldnt get on the forum yesterday...it was strange...very strange. I could only see the really old posts in this page. too late now...bah.

[Gaspode]

MatthewV, for some reason the topic list was backwards--the latest posts were on pages 2 and 3. But it was all there.

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You can't lose if you win.

[ralphmerridew]

Day 2 dawns to a particularly morning, and everyone ever so briefly forgets the horror of the previous day. That is, everyone except for the orc amb, who was killed last night by the Fellowship.

Alive:
Beartalon
casinopete
Gaspode
MatthewV
mikegoo
Polotet
Porro
quercitron
Sparticus

Dead:
Planky - Orc (Townie), killed night 1
Dragon Phoenix - Orc (Townie), lynched day 1
amb - Orc (Townie), killed night 2

There are nine people alive, 5 to lynch. No deadline at present.

[quercitron]

Anyone else think this might be 3 Maf / 1 Cop / 1 Doc / 7 Townies or some variant of it?

[Gaspode]

That sounds about right, maybe with one or two special roles (Saruman, Uruk-Hai, etc.)

I can't really find much info from yesterday, what do you (the town) propose we do?

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You can't lose if you win.

[Beartalon]

Porro, what did you find out last night?

[MatthewV]

well...I think I wait. Just have to post something to make it easier to find where I last read to

[Porro]

Bah. I'm having difficulty accessing my e-mail over the internet at present, so it could be a few hours before I can give you the results.

BTW if I get 'innocent' should I reveal the name, bearing in mind what happened to amb?

[Beartalon]

Probably not. But if your investigation turned up evil...

[Porro]

Another innocent

[Sparticus]

I can't really analyze anything from yesterday. Maybe I'll go with my second die roll.

Vote: Beartalon

No evidence or anything to back this up, just revoting my random vote from Day 1.

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In my dice bag, I've got dice you've never even heard of. I have a d5, d7, d14, d16...I think I've even got a d1.

[Beartalon]

Vote: quercitron - just a random voting from the list of those who voted for an innocent. At least one or more must be Mafia.

[MatthewV]

At least our chances of getting scum have improved...::shrugs:: I dont see anything to go on.

[Sparticus]

We don't have anything to go on. We'll have to rely on our dumb luck again today.

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In my dice bag, I've got dice you've never even heard of. I have a d5, d7, d14, d16...I think I've even got a d1.

[Porro]

casinopete seems unusually quiet, however, for now I shall vote:mikegoo fairly randomly, though he did seem suspiciously keen on bandwaggons yesterday.