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 Mini-Mafia in Isengard (Game over, Fellowship wins) Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next
Author Message
Beartalon
'Party line' kind of guy

 Posted: Tue Jan 28, 2003 5:10 am    Post subject: 41 Randomness sucks.
casinopete
Emergency Backup Antrax

 Posted: Tue Jan 28, 2003 9:52 am    Post subject: 42 I don't think the key to the logic of following the cop's random vote is quite as simple as being a {2 or 3}/9 chance vs. a {2 or 3}/10 chance. . . because, assuming we are trusting the cop's claim to be true, we all "know" he is an innocent, so all of our random votes will also be {2 or 3}/9. It's more a matter of trusting that the cop's random vote truly is a random vote. I shall explain further. For simplicity's sake, I will use 3 instead of {2 or 3} in my example. Say we consider following a random player's random vote. That player has a 3/9 chance of targeting a mafioso. . . if he's actually a townie. We must also factor in the 3/9 chance that he's actually a mafioso himself! This means that in following his vote, we've only got a (6/9)*(3/9) = 18/81 = 22.2% chance of getting a mafioso, as opposed to the 33.3% we'd get by following our cop. Therefore, if we trust our cop's claim to being a cop, and find no other logical reasons for targetting a specific person, we should follow his lead in voting. Of course, 33.3% still isn't the best of odds, so it would be best to discuss things further. But if no one ends up catching my eye as particularly suspicious, I think I'll end up throwing in with Porro.
Porro
Cool as a cucumber

 Posted: Tue Jan 28, 2003 12:54 pm    Post subject: 43 amb is loyal to Isengard. My vote for DP was random. That's why I said it was random
ralphmerridew
Daedalian Member

 Posted: Tue Jan 28, 2003 6:01 pm    Post subject: 44 BearTalon: 2 (amb, Sparticus) casinopete: 1 (BearTalon) DP: 3 (MatthewV, mikegoo, Porro) Porro: 2 (Polotet, quercitron) Sparticus: 1 (DP) silent: Gaspode nobody: casinopete Tilforder If Gaspode does not post within 24 hours, he will be replaced. [This message has been edited by ralphmerridew (edited 01-28-2003 05:33 PM).]
Gaspode
Daedalian Member

 Posted: Tue Jan 28, 2003 6:52 pm    Post subject: 45 AAH! Sorry, I haven't had a chance to read the thread lately. I guess I'll vote: DP because there's nothing better to go on right now. ------------------ You can't lose if you win. (Or if the mod disappears into thin air before the end of the game.)
Sparticus
Spourk's Insignificant Other

 Posted: Tue Jan 28, 2003 9:22 pm    Post subject: 46 Um...unless I missed something, or unless he has some special power, Polotet shouldn't have two votes. ------------------ In my dice bag, I've got dice you've never even heard of. I have a d5, d7, d14, d16...I think I've even got a d1.
Polotet
Daedalian Member

 Posted: Tue Jan 28, 2003 9:46 pm    Post subject: 47 Mwah-ha-ha! I will lynch all of you at once with my multiple vote powers! Just kidding. I never voted DP. And Unvote: Porro. I'll hold my vote, for now.
Beartalon
'Party line' kind of guy

 Posted: Tue Jan 28, 2003 11:27 pm    Post subject: 48 Vote me, vote for a townie. Same thing.
quercitron
Don't trust Robinson

 Posted: Wed Jan 29, 2003 12:34 am    Post subject: 49 Unvote: Porro. Thinking.
ralphmerridew
Daedalian Member

 Posted: Wed Jan 29, 2003 11:55 pm    Post subject: 50 BearTalon: 2 (amb, Sparticus) casinopete: 1 (BearTalon) DP: 4 (Gaspode, MatthewV, mikegoo, Porro) Sparticus: 1 (DP) no vote: casinopete, Polotet, quercitron No deadline at present.
Amb
Amb the Hitched.

 Posted: Thu Jan 30, 2003 5:50 am    Post subject: 51 unvote BT Vote DP Roleclaim? Only 1 away from being lynched?
Dragon Phoenix
Judge Doom

 Posted: Thu Jan 30, 2003 6:44 am    Post subject: 52 Can't argue with the logic of voting for me. Can't do a spectacular role claim either. I am an orc (townie).
Porro
Cool as a cucumber

 Posted: Thu Jan 30, 2003 12:35 pm    Post subject: 53 unvote:DP Sounds plausible, the orc thing and all. Unless we have some other 'townie' out there who can tell us that 'orc' is not the official designation for a townie?
mikegoo
Daedalian Member

Posted: Thu Jan 30, 2003 1:30 pm    Post subject: 54

If you look at post 1 under the list of dead people it says
 Quote: Planky - Orc (Townie)

Not too hard to come up with the role claim of orc (townie)
We eventually have to lynch someone...if we believe everyone's role claims we really don't get anywhere. That said I think I would rather have DP in the game than dead unvote DP
Porro
Cool as a cucumber

 Posted: Fri Jan 31, 2003 1:05 pm    Post subject: 55 My bad. vote:DP
Dragon Phoenix
Judge Doom

 Posted: Fri Jan 31, 2003 2:05 pm    Post subject: 56 As I said, I can't fight the logic and I am perfectly OK with being lynched, except that it is not good for Isengard. You might want to consider my defence - usually, when I am scum, I come up woth a strange but quite believable role claim.
ralphmerridew
Daedalian Member

 Posted: Fri Jan 31, 2003 2:47 pm    Post subject: 57 BearTalon: 1 (Sparticus) casinopete: 1 (BearTalon) DP: 4 (amb, Gaspode, MatthewV, Porro) Sparticus: 1 (DP) no vote: casinopete, mikegoo, Polotet, quercitron No deadline at present. Tilforder
Amb
Amb the Hitched.

Posted: Fri Jan 31, 2003 7:10 pm    Post subject: 58

Now I will hold my vote on DP.

 Quote: usually, when I am scum, I come up woth a strange but quite believable role claim.

I hope we arent wrong, but that comment convinces me somewhat.
mikegoo
Daedalian Member

 Posted: Fri Jan 31, 2003 7:46 pm    Post subject: 59 Actually I've changed my mind...the worst that happens here is we lynch a not so important role. Trying to start another bandwagon could lead to a second important role having to reveal themselves (not good for the town). vote: DP
Gaspode
Daedalian Member

 Posted: Fri Jan 31, 2003 8:48 pm    Post subject: 60 unvote: DP and vote: mikegoo. I believe DP's claim, and Goo doesn't seem to really want to try to get scum. ------------------ You can't lose if you win.
Polotet
Daedalian Member

 Posted: Fri Jan 31, 2003 9:56 pm    Post subject: 61 Hmm. I don't like it when people say "I'm not scum, because if I were, I'd be defending myself in this way instead of that way." It's not a valid argument. So Vote: DP.
Dragon Phoenix
Judge Doom

 Posted: Fri Jan 31, 2003 10:01 pm    Post subject: 62 *shrugs* Whatever.
quercitron
Don't trust Robinson

 Posted: Fri Jan 31, 2003 10:22 pm    Post subject: 63 Fair enough. Vote: DP
ralphmerridew
Daedalian Member

 Posted: Sat Feb 01, 2003 12:08 am    Post subject: 64 After yo-yoing back and forth, the crowd finally decides that DP is no longer worthy to live. He shrugs, almost resigned to his fate, as the crowd drags him to a tree and strings him up. Orc Dragon Phoenix (Townie) has been lynched. It is night, please send your moves.
Slain Dragon Phoenix
Ashes to ashes....

 Posted: Sat Feb 01, 2003 9:00 am    Post subject: 65 Bah.
MatthewV
Daedalian Member :_

 Posted: Sat Feb 01, 2003 8:57 pm    Post subject: 66 that sucks- i couldnt get on the forum yesterday...it was strange...very strange. I could only see the really old posts in this page. too late now...bah.
Gaspode
Daedalian Member

 Posted: Sun Feb 02, 2003 3:28 am    Post subject: 67 MatthewV, for some reason the topic list was backwards--the latest posts were on pages 2 and 3. But it was all there. ------------------ You can't lose if you win.
ralphmerridew
Daedalian Member

 Posted: Mon Feb 03, 2003 12:23 am    Post subject: 68 Day 2 dawns to a particularly morning, and everyone ever so briefly forgets the horror of the previous day. That is, everyone except for the orc amb, who was killed last night by the Fellowship. Alive: Beartalon casinopete Gaspode MatthewV mikegoo Polotet Porro quercitron Sparticus Dead: Planky - Orc (Townie), killed night 1 Dragon Phoenix - Orc (Townie), lynched day 1 amb - Orc (Townie), killed night 2 There are nine people alive, 5 to lynch. No deadline at present.
quercitron
Don't trust Robinson

 Posted: Mon Feb 03, 2003 12:27 am    Post subject: 69 Anyone else think this might be 3 Maf / 1 Cop / 1 Doc / 7 Townies or some variant of it?
Gaspode
Daedalian Member

 Posted: Mon Feb 03, 2003 1:49 am    Post subject: 70 That sounds about right, maybe with one or two special roles (Saruman, Uruk-Hai, etc.) I can't really find much info from yesterday, what do you (the town) propose we do? ------------------ You can't lose if you win.
Beartalon
'Party line' kind of guy

 Posted: Mon Feb 03, 2003 4:31 am    Post subject: 71 Porro, what did you find out last night?
MatthewV
Daedalian Member :_

 Posted: Mon Feb 03, 2003 5:56 am    Post subject: 72 well...I think I wait. Just have to post something to make it easier to find where I last read to
Porro
Cool as a cucumber

 Posted: Mon Feb 03, 2003 1:27 pm    Post subject: 73 Bah. I'm having difficulty accessing my e-mail over the internet at present, so it could be a few hours before I can give you the results. BTW if I get 'innocent' should I reveal the name, bearing in mind what happened to amb?
Beartalon
'Party line' kind of guy

 Posted: Mon Feb 03, 2003 6:06 pm    Post subject: 74 Probably not. But if your investigation turned up evil...
Porro
Cool as a cucumber

 Posted: Mon Feb 03, 2003 6:53 pm    Post subject: 75 Another innocent
Sparticus
Spourk's Insignificant Other

 Posted: Mon Feb 03, 2003 9:37 pm    Post subject: 76 I can't really analyze anything from yesterday. Maybe I'll go with my second die roll. Vote: Beartalon No evidence or anything to back this up, just revoting my random vote from Day 1. ------------------ In my dice bag, I've got dice you've never even heard of. I have a d5, d7, d14, d16...I think I've even got a d1.
Beartalon
'Party line' kind of guy

 Posted: Mon Feb 03, 2003 10:33 pm    Post subject: 77 Vote: quercitron - just a random voting from the list of those who voted for an innocent. At least one or more must be Mafia.
MatthewV
Daedalian Member :_

 Posted: Tue Feb 04, 2003 1:16 am    Post subject: 78 At least our chances of getting scum have improved...::shrugs:: I dont see anything to go on.
Sparticus
Spourk's Insignificant Other

 Posted: Tue Feb 04, 2003 3:05 am    Post subject: 79 We don't have anything to go on. We'll have to rely on our dumb luck again today. ------------------ In my dice bag, I've got dice you've never even heard of. I have a d5, d7, d14, d16...I think I've even got a d1.
Porro
Cool as a cucumber

 Posted: Tue Feb 04, 2003 1:20 pm    Post subject: 80 casinopete seems unusually quiet, however, for now I shall vote:mikegoo fairly randomly, though he did seem suspiciously keen on bandwaggons yesterday.
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