Entomology Mafia [Day 8 - 5 to lynch]

[Leonidas]

[Werebear]

if CB is really a doc, we could still have two killers left on the loose. Hm, that leads to another interesting question--

O beloved temp mod (*Grin*) - would you have told us if a night target was targeted twice, as amb used to do, or after the first one do you ignore other kills?

[Porro]

Originally posted by leonidas:

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Sorry for the multi-post, but here I go anyway.
In terms of strategy: CB's claim FORCES him not to kill Gaspode.

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I don't understand what you mean by that, why wouldn't CB kill Gaspode?

Originally posted by Werebear:

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Actually, I'm leaning towards CaptainBlicero. Why? Two reasons, really.
First, he claimed "June Bug", and when pressured to give more, came up with "Jewel Beetle June Bug" as his complete role name. This was before it was realized there were insects just called "centipede" and "cricket".

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Interesting. Could you could help us verify that easily by quoting the post numbers in question. The point about crackerjack may be valid too, but the weird claim looks more suspect to me.

Originally posted by leonidas:

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Which means Gaspode can still live on a little, and kamikaze himself on CB before it's too late. Or the Town could just lynch CB later, knowing that Gaspode will still have his kamikaze option for the following night.

So: we could lynch Polotet today and see what happens. Or we could just lynch CB, which I am inclined to do. The problem with the second option is that if there is more than one baddie, we lose Gaspode tonight.

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Following my theories in post 907, I think there's either 1 or 3 mafioso left. If there's 1 left If:

Originally posted by today:

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Our lynch today is town: leaves 4T, 1M.................is mafia: leaves 5T, 0M = we win

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Originally posted by tonight:

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If town and Gaspode kills a town: leaves 2T, 1M
If mafia also kills a different townie: leaves 1T, 1M

If Gaspode doesn't kill, but mafia does: leaves 3T, 1M

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Originally posted by tomorrow:

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Will be v. hard or impossible for town to win if Gaspode killed.

If gaspode didn't kill, and lynch is mafia = town wins
If gaspode didn't kill, and lynch is town: leaves 2T, 1M ...which combined with a mafia kill the next night will leave 1T, 1M, and thus a mafia win

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If there are 3 mafia left:
[quote=today]If lynch is mafia, leaves 3T, 2M
If lynch is town, leaves 2T, 3M

quote:

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[quote=tonight]In both cases there may be two different mafia families still alive, or maybe only 1 family with 2 members if the lynch was successful. Therefore, if Gaspode doesn't kill, we could start tomorrow with either of the following:
(from 3T, 2M)
3T, 0M (if they kill each other)
1T, 2M
2T, 2M
(from 2T, 3M)
2T, 1M
0T, 3M
1T, 2M
If Gaspode Kills a mafia (from 3T,2M)
2T,0M
0T,1M
1T,1M
If Gaspode Kills a mafia (from 2T,3M)
1T,1M
0T,2M
If Gaspode Kills a town...doesn't bear thinking about, unless the mafia kill each other.

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If I've done that right, I don't think Gaspode should kill unless the target is confirmed mafia. If Gaspode didn't die on his third kill, his power would be as good as a lynch, the problem is obviously that his kill is *guaranteed* to deplete town numbers. NB guaranteed only insofar as he is who he says he is, and I don't think anyone doubts his claim.

I agree that CB and polotet look the most suspicious at the moment. But we don't need to rush into anything today. It goes without saying, but our next move is critical.

[Porro]

[Leonidas]

Yes, Porro - after all, a doc would protect the player who is most likely to be town. So as long as CB is alive, he must keep Gaspode alive to remain credible as a doc.

And I don't believe there are 3 mafs left. That would be 3 + 9 (evil deads)= 12 evil roles, never heard of in a game of this size.

[Werebear]

My busiest day at work ever, and here I am combing through days 2-4. Disclaimer - I included all parts of each reply, no editing, but there might be a pertient reply I missed. Please go back and read for yourself. Each reply starts with the reply number and the poster's name, I didn't want to add a hundred quotes.

[quote]reply 21 - crackerjack

vote: CaptainBlicero

reply 98 - crackerjack

Groza's claim seems likely. I would bet that he is pro-town. But undoubtedly, CaptainBlicero is not.
confirm vote: CB

reply 101 - crackerjack

BF, what makes you think my vote for Blicero was random? Sure it was early on, but you are assuming. I have never swayed from this vote. Perhaps there is more than meets the eye to my voting for the Cap'n.

reply 103 - CB

Hey, Degenerate, try reading the thread. I wasn't the only player jumping on groza's bandwagon for no good reason. I was just the most honest.
FOS: crackerjack - what is up with you?

reply 135 - CB

Whoa, whoa... you guys are voting me because crackerjack says I am "undoubtedly" scum? What the hell is that?
Trust me folks, if he actually is a cop, and that's a big "if" because he hasn't claimed a role, he's either paranoid or insane. I am a June Bug, which is a pro-town role. There is absolutely no way that I will reveal anything more about my role on Day One, but there might be more June Bugs in the town who know that I'm useful.
If you sheep string me up, you're all gonna look like idiots. You all should've listened to BigFella... no, we're not affiliated in any way, but he seems to be able to think coherently.
unvote: porro
vote: crackerjack... this is a solid "The Captain is pissed at you" vote for not considering sanity and doing a weak, implicit-cop-claim vote without actually claiming anything, then sitting back quietly while a senseless bandwagon forms. I have said this before (in other games), but have never meant it more sincerely: Oh My God, You Suck.

reply 136 - CB

And now that I've gotten that OMGUS out of my system,
unvote: crackerjack
vote: Vegetable
Think about this: Veg posted (Post 116) "Get a scum today, or lynch crackerjack tomorrow." Despite my OMGUS, I doubt that crackerjack is mafia. He's screwing the town, yes, but he's probably just misguided. I doubt that a mafia would expose themselves on Day One to attack a random townie, and even if crackerjack is some mafia investigator who somehow learned my role, I seriously don't think he'd sacrifice himself to take out a June Bug.
Veg seems to be trying to employ the classic mafia strategy of "Watch the townies lynch each other." If CJ is a paranoid cop, then you'll lose two important town roles in lynches, not to mention the night kills. Also, look at his other posts - he's the most likely scum.
I really, really wish I could keep a vote on crackerjack too, but right now, Veg seems to be the scummiest.

137 - Porro

Did you read the recent debate at all? How about specifying what type of June Bug you are. Then again if you are simply a 'June Bug' you should not have said something as daft as 'there might be more June Bugs'.
Because of these points I find your role claim unconvincing, and unless you want to get lynched I think it would be wise to give us more info.

138 - crackerjack

am sorry CB, but I did investigate you and you came back guilty. I think there is a possibility that you are innocent, as I am a dung beetle, so my investigations might be "crap". But lynching you could be no worse than a random lynching, because there is at least a larger possibility that you are guilty.
Secondly, you picked a probable role (and a probable pro-town role) and claimed it saying "there are probably others out there with the same role who can verify my innocence." If this is an innocent mistake or an honest role claim, so be it, but to me it makes you sound guilty.

139 - cb

Specifically, I am a "jewel beetle" June Bug, whatever that means. I may be the only June Bug in this town, or there may be others, I don't know. I missed the whole "unique roles" debate (and my subsequent bandwagon), because I was out of town from friday morning to sunday morning. Talk about bad timing.

140 - cb

And seeing as how I'm one vote away from a lynch, I might as well make the mafia do all the work. I can use my special healing powers to protect one person per night. So, although I'm not a "Red June Bug" or "Flying June Bug," I sincerely hope there are others in this town with the same powers I have, because otherwise it's gonna suck for the town.

(*Everyone unvotes*)

[Leonidas]

ROFL

[Leonidas]

lololol

vote:CB

Congratulations, Captain. Really - even if you get lynched today, it's a remarkable result from a mafia perspective.

[Werebear]

I'm going to have to vote: CaptainBlicero.

Crackerjack's role we don't know. We know he was collecting dung towards a goal... he called it an investigation.
Crackerjack was anti-town, the kind of role you definitely don't want to put your neck on the line by making a large false accusation.
Crackerjack came out and put his neck on the line to accuse CB of being anti-town.

The only reasoning I have (and it could be faulty) is that Crackerjack did get some sort of result when he went out at night... and decided to use that information to make himself look innocent.

If I'm missing something, please point it out BEFORE CaptainBlicero gets lynched.

[CaptainBlicero]

Whoa! Hold up, town. This is bad. I actually am telling the truth about my role. That whole "jewel beetle" thing has been totally misconstrued. My role is just "June Bug." Waaaay back on Day One, I had no idea why I was being pressured to provide more of a role name than "June Bug." I can't describe the wording of my role PM, since that would be grounds for mod-killing, but it also contained the phrase "jewel beetle." That's where that came from.

As for the "CB must be leaving Gaspode alive on purpose" logic, think about this: Assume that I actually AM telling the truth. Assume that I actually AM a doctor. Assume the remaining scum KNOWS I am innocent, and therefore KNOWS I am telling the truth. Then, he would KNOW that I was protecting Gaspode last night, and he would AVOID KILLING GASPODE. So Gaspode surviving the night says NOTHING about my guilt or innocence. Back to square one, logicians.

[CaptainBlicero]

As for crackerjack - he probably did have investigative powers (wasn't there something about him selling his results for dung as a win condition?), but as he admitted himself, as a Dung Beetle, his investigations were probably crap. Lynching me on the word of a lying, confirmed bad guy is tres stupide.

Lynching me is a terrible idea. Lynching Polotet is a good one. Claims "powerless townie," and then says "oh, I forgot every role had a name in this game. In that case, I'm a House Fly." He is my prime suspect (although I still have my inexplicable note that says Porro is probably scum).

[ralphmerridew]

Werebear: If somebody is killed by more than one group, I would report all kills against that person.

Current votes:
Polotet - 1 (Gaspode)
Captain Blicero - 2 (Leonidas, Werebear)

Tilforder

[Leonidas]

[Werebear]

*cringes at the memory of the Honey Bloated Ant fiasco*

[CaptainBlicero]

Yeah, I can't really defend why I'm still alive, except for the weak argument that the mafia specifically left me alive for an easy end-game lynch. That's kind of doubtful though. However, I have been lurking like a maniac and maybe the scum were really, really lazy and forget that I was an outed doc.

I don't know why CJ fingered me on Day One. His role was revealed as "Mafia Saboteur and Dung Beetle Investigator." He obviously DID have investigations. Whether he got a "guilty" result on me and thought he could get in the town's good graces, or whether he got an "innocent" result and was trying to get me lynched for the mafia, or whether he just got bored with the long Day One and decided to screw around is kind of pointless, IMO, because he played a very bizarre game. I have no idea what his strategy or what he was trying to accomplish other than causing a huge amount of confusion.

Here's an example of some of this insanity -- in post 741, he wrote: "As I have said all along, I have given all of my results already. Except for the most recent one because it's someone who is voting for me and I don't want them to have the satisfaction of being found innocent. Unfortunately, I have been very unlucky with my investigations and have not found anyone guilty (except one that I now know for a fact is indeed who he says he is and that is CaptainBlicero -- a doctor)."

Seriously, unvote me. Don't rush the critical lynch of the game before we hear from everyone.

[Porro]

~Finger hovers over the lynch CB button~

I think we need to decide by majority whether gaspode kills tonight or not before we end the day. I've put my thoughts forward.

Speak uo EVERYONE.

[Porro]

uo = up

p.s. I'm going away, but should be back by the 19th.

[Leonidas]

After a difficult decision tree analysis and payoffs matrix
reduction, it's going to be:

vote: Gaspode KILL TONIGHT

confirm vote: CB

[Werebear]

I think one of the two are our mafia. Vote: Gaspode kill

[Gaspode]

Not voting for lynch (I don't want to kill CB prematurely) or vig kill (I don't like voting on stuff that concerns me).

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You can't lose if you win.

[Werebear]

Hello? Bump?

[Porro]

I expected a few more posts than this during my absence.

By the look of it, nothing new is going to be revealed today until the lynch, and since I still find CB suspicious, I'll Vote:CB

[ralphmerridew]

Current votes:
Polotet - 1 (Gaspode)
Captain Blicero - 3 (Leonidas, Werebear, Porro)

Have Gaspode kill - 2 (Werebear, Leonidas)

4 votes to lynch

[CaptainBlicero]

Yeah, Gaspode should kill tonight. If Polotet casts the lynching vote against me, kill him. Otherwise, kill someone else on my bandwagon. I really wish that still being alive wasn't such damning evidence against me. Polotet's claim was the most transparent thing ever.

[Werebear]

...well, that's ONE way to keep the last vote off your bandwagon.

[CaptainBlicero]

Yeah, my strategy of being honest and playing for the good of the town doesn't seem to be winning me any support, so I figured it was time to go for some simple, direct threats.

[Polotet]

Sorry I've taken so long to post. I see no viable option besides voting CB, though it kills me. Oh, well. Gaspode, please don't kill me tonight, even if CB is innocent. You'll just be reducing the number of townies by one. However, I'm hoping he's evil. Vote: CB

[Gaspode]

Well, that's it. What's the answer, Mr. Endgame Mod?

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You can't lose if you win.

[Mark J Tilford]

After much debate, the town finally comes to a decision. Captain Blicero the June Bug Doctor joins the other smears on the road.

It is night, send your choices.

[Werebear]

I'll be gone until Sat. evening.

[Werebear]

It's like I never left.

[ralphmerridew]

Deadline in 48 hours from this posting, or choice is forfeited.

[Mark J Tilford]

A new day dawns, and one of you is no longer present. Leonidas the Oriental Moth is found with multiple spider bites over his body.

Gaspode
Polotet
Porro
Werebear ex Lucresia

Leonidas ex BigFella - Oriental Moth (killed by the spiders)

With 4 alive, 3 to lynch. No deadline at present.


[This message has been edited by Mark J Tilford (edited 08-26-2003 12:54 PM).]

[Werebear]

Multiple spider bites. That doesn't bode well. Any ideas?

[Porro]

Interesting.

Did you attempt a kill last night Gaspode?

[Gaspode]

Actually, no. I decided that it would be better to wait until we had a better percentage chance to get scum. If I had attempted to kill last night and gotten a townie, the game would be over right now. I figured that I could wait until we lynched somebody today, and if we still didn't win, I'd have a 50-50 shot at getting scum tonight.

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You can't lose if you win.

[Porro]

Fair enough. I just wanted to establish whether you'd attempted but failed, or not attempted at all.

[Werebear]

code:

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CLAIMS


Gaspode	 - Wasp, vigilante with 3 kills (1 left)


Werebear - Blue-Bottle Fly, townie


Polotet	 - House Fly, Townie


Porro    - Silverfish, Townie

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Right now the only one I consider proven town is Gaspode. This makes the choice for Gaspode harder than ours - we only have two to worry about each. ROFL. Right now it's a game of which townie is lying... and we'd better choose well. Anyone have any reason one of us three townies is more suspicious than the others, lay it forth now.

Right now, Polotet has my FoS - for being last to claim, and claiming "powerless townie" before claiming his role. (If I were town, I'd claim role first, and then name... and in "Twin Peaks" mafia, the only reason I won sole mafia survivor is that I knew who everyone else was, I could build my fake claim without worries of overlap)

[Porro]

Certainly from recent history Polotet is the most suspicious, due to the manner of his role claim.

For some reason I'm weary of werebear too, but I'm not sure why. It may just be werebear being werebear

I think this is where we reappraise the whole thread, and see if we can pick up any tidbits we missed previously...it'll take time, but I don't suppose their's any rush.

[Mark J Tilford]

Let's not have a return of the exterminator mod.

Three votes to lynch. Confirmations will be required.