Entomology Mafia [Day 8 - 5 to lynch]

[Werebear]

Well, as long as confirmations are required, I'll venture a Vote: Polotet. I think our problem is we have no real leads, just suspicions.

*gives Porro a powerwedgie when noone's looking* *grin*

[Polotet]

Hmmm. I'm trying to figure out what you mean by this, Werebear:

Originally posted by Werebear:

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If I were town, I'd claim role first, and then name...

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I did claim my role first and then name. You might mean "If I were mafia..." In that case, I'd like to point out that there was only a real day between my claim of townie and my bug name (posts 868 and 876) , and that no other claims were made during that time. Therefore, were I lying, I would have gained nothing by holding out for that short amount of time.

Also- our kill situation seems very strange to me. We have only one kill, yet no insect eaters have died since our their last kill, so they must still be around. And before, when one person was double killed, we were told, so I doubt this is the case here. But unless someone is lying, we have no roles remaining which have or grant protection from kills. Does anyone have any idea of what might have gone on?

In terms of my suspicions, I agree that Gaspode is confirmed town, but I'm swinging between Porro and Werebear. Right now I'm leaning towards Werebear a little since he was so quick to vote, but confirmations are required, so I'm not sure. I'll hold off on voting for now.

[Polotet]

Waitaminute. If there's still a bugeater left, you both have to be evil. Am I missing something here? Is there a way that there could be no bugeaters left?

[Werebear]

The last two nights have just had spider mafia kills. Seeing as noone has claimed doc, I was supposing we only had spider mafia left... the only thing that bugs me is the phrase "multiple spider bites"....

And I ventured a vote because I really do think you're the most suspicious, which doesn't mean all that much at this point. I'm willing to be talked out of it, I'm not confirming until the town is in agreement.

[Mark J Tilford]

(side note: "multiple spider bites" mean only that Leonidas was killed by the spider mafia, and has nothing to do with how many members the spider mafia still has.)

[Leonidas]

Bah @ spiders.

[CaptainBlicero]

Bah @ townies. And spiders. And that shiny sticky tape thing that comes on CDs that's impossible to get off in one piece.

[Polotet]

I'm still holding off on voting. I'm actually wondering what Gaspode thinks: he's the only confirmed innocent, and he has said little about his suspicions today. I hope the fact that he didn't kill me overnight means he thinks I'm probably not evil, but I'd like to hear what ideas he does have.

[Porro]

I speculated a couple of times (on pages 23 and 24) that there may be bug-eaters left, but no-one seemed to give it much serious consideration.

Polotet presumably spotted

quote:

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TheOtherKatie/MikeAmok - Squished by the town - Day 5,Poison Dart Frog
Werebear - Swallowed by Bug Eater and Venus Fly Trap, Night 6

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Which appear to be the last death of, and kill by the bugeaters.

That would seem to confirm that there is one among us, unless crackerjack was one of them and had, or inherited, kill powers.

[Werebear]

Indeed, unfortunately, I was. I didn't believe the claim, so I stuck my neck out thinking I was finishing the game. And if my neck gets chopped off for it, I wouldn't be surprised.

[Gaspode]

I'm here, sorry for disappearing. Unfortunately, you'll have to wait until tomorrow or Thursday for my suspicions; I have no time at all to go through the thread, because school starts Thursday and I still haven't finished my summer assignments. So I'll see you all in a day or two, sorry for the further delay.

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You can't lose if you win.

[Porro]

Another observation...

[Werebear]

SPIDERS
Samadhi - Funnel web spider
Termital - Whitetail Spider
Degenerate - Tarantula and GF of the spider mafia
(plus at least one more spider alive, I think one death scene had their name)

BUG EATERS
JEEP - Chinese Water Dragon
Wordcross - Daddy Long Legs, Mafia Spy
TheOtherKatie/MikeAmok - Poison Dart Frog
CrackerJack - Mafia Sabotuer and Dung Beetle investigator

INDEPENDANT KILLERS
RubberDuck - Australian Vampire Moth and Mason killer.
Logain - Venus Fly Trap - SK

I'm not sure which mafia Crackerjack worked for, I'm guessing the bug eaters. Either way, he was investigating townies to report to the mafia. Now that I've compiled this information, I'm not sure where to go with it. Anyone take it from here? (oh, and someone please look up Daddy Long Legs, IIRC, they're not a spider, but I don't remember where I got that information from)

Oh, and CaptainBlicero? I'm sorry you're dead, but one question - where were you when Werebear1 needed protection? *grin*

[CaptainBlicero]

Originally posted by "Werebear":

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Oh, and CaptainBlicero? I'm sorry you're dead, but one question - where were you when Werebear1 needed protection? *grin*

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You'll have to ask amb that question, because I actually was protecting you when you got killed. I don't know if amb missed my choice or if the mafia has unblockable kills or what.

[Werebear]

Going back, I found out a few things. And by "going back" I mean almost rereading the whole bloody thread.

1) The daddy long legs was the spider mafia spy (appears in the death scene)
2) Werebear1 had been targeted twice that night, once by the SK and once by the bug eaters... probably the reason he died.
3) Post 5 - TANSTAAFL's death was by a Brown Recluse Spider, and we haven't had one die yet.

SPIDERS
Samadhi - Funnel web spider
Termital - Whitetail Spider
Degenerate - Tarantula and GF of the spider mafia
Wordcross - Daddy Long Legs, Mafia Spy
??? - Brown Recluse Spider

BUG EATERS
JEEP - Chinese Water Dragon
TheOtherKatie/MikeAmok - Poison Dart Frog
CrackerJack - Mafia Sabotuer and Dung Beetle investigator

I don't think RubberDuck was part of the bug eaters, wasn't his kill separate?! So that gives a total of 5 spiders and 3 bug eaters as mafia. Why does it sound like I'm missing something? I debated whether RubberDuck was actually a bugeater, but... "RubberDuck the mason was an Australian Vampire Moth who could begin working as a Serial Killer once he had been recruited." (post 440) I hate to think of there being another bugeater left, but three seems an awfully small number... but then why, with no docs left, wouldn't there be a bugeater kill the last 2 nights??? *holds head in paws*

[Werebear]

two more things -

1) please erase the line "I don't think RubberDuck was part of the bug eaters, wasn't his kill separate?!" from the above, I typed it before I went back and searched, and forgot to delete.

2) Think there's a non-killing member of the bug eaters?

[Porro]

Well that rules out 6b and 6c.

I'm not sure what's going on with the lack of deaths, but my current suspicious list is:
Werebear
Polotet
Gaspode
Me

*need time to examine the thread more*

[Werebear]

Um, dare I ask why??? Is it only because I was sure CB was scum, or is it because I'm posting a lot? If the first one, go back and see how Werebear1 (mason cop) was posting when arguing against the Honey Bloated Ant... *shakes head again* If the second one, there's nothing I can do about that, I believe in information, and thought I was doing good by posting.

[Porro]

See penultimate paragraph of Reply 968. I know it's not alot to go on, but I just think it's a little more substantial than the fact that polotet said he was town before he named his role.

[Werebear]

Fair enough, I suppose... I do want to hear what Gaspode has to say too.

[Gaspode]

Dang it, everybody's relying on me. Well, sorry, but there's not much to tell. Last night I decided not to kill because I figured that our chances would be better mathematically if I waited. As for suspicions, the only thing I really have is Polotet's claim. I have a bit of a bad feeling about Werebear (I don't remember why; it's been quite awhile since I've paid much attention to mafia).

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You can't lose if you win.

[Werebear]

I even showered last month, too.

[Porro]

Well to move things along, and since confirms are necessary

Vote: Werebear

But I'd still like to check the thread more :/

[Mark J Tilford]

Vote Count:

Polotet: Werebear
Werebear: Porro

[Werebear]

Well, if I'm lynched, you'd better hope Gaspode chooses wisely.

[Gaspode]

Question to mod: what happens in the event of a tie for votes?

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You can't lose if you win.

[Mark J Tilford]

If there is a tie for confirmed votes, or if two people vote confirmed no lynch, then there will be no lynch.

[This message has been edited by Mark J Tilford (edited 09-10-2003 05:22 AM).]

[Werebear]

I don't think we're better off no lynching, does anyone else?

I just thought of something. If we lynch a town, we to into the night with 3 alive. If the mafia kills a town and gaspode kills mafia then dies, there could be a no-win situation. ROFL... wonder if that's ever happened before. This game has gone on 9 months and a day... and then to have EVERYONE dead at the end.

[Werebear]

Gaspode - remind me again... who was your second kill?

[Gaspode]

Werebear: It was Crackerjack.

Oh, by the way, I think the reason I was suspicious of Werebear was because he was so keen on me using my kill last night. Was it just me, or did other people notice it too?

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You can't lose if you win.

[Werebear]

quote:

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Leonidas, Reply 937

After a difficult decision tree analysis and payoffs matrix
reduction, it's going to be:
vote: Gaspode KILL TONIGHT

confirm vote: CB

Werebear, Reply 938

I think one of the two are our mafia. Vote: Gaspode kill

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*Shrug* A few posts previous, I gave what I thought was pretty good evidence against CB. I still think Polotet and CB were the two most suspicious. CB turned out to be town. So did Leonidas. I could be wrong with Polotet. All I ask is that you choose wisely tonight if I get lynched, Gaspode.

[Gaspode]

I'd like to hear more out of Polotet and Porro; I'm worried that they may be trying to fly under the radar a bit.

I'm also curious as to everyone's thoughts on whether or not their should be a lynch and/or a kill today/tonight.

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You can't lose if you win.

[Werebear]

There's four left. The mafia(s) will kill tonight. Gaspode - do you think there's one mafia left, or 2? If there's 2, they're on opposite sides of the fence, or this game would be over by now.

FACTORS

[one mafia left, two mafias left]
[lynch, no lynch]
[lynch town, lynch mafia]
[vig kill, no vig kill]
[one mafia kill, two mafia kills]

That's the problem, I keep trying to figure out the odds, but there's too much factored in. Every time I try doing it, it ends up a whole bunch of "If this" and "if that". Here is my best shot at it: PLEASE pick apart and tell me what you think... I may have missed something.

[/b]IF THERE'S ONE MAFIA LEFT:
lynching mafia would be great.
lynching town - that would leave 2 town, one mafia, the vig would HAVE to kill tonight.
no lynch no vig wouldn't hurt us, it would make the choice easier tomorrow.
no lynch vig - Gaspode had better be right, or it's curtains.

[b]IF THERE'S TWO MAFIA LEFT (one bugeater, one spider)
lynch mafia, 3 left, vig would HAVE to kill tonight.
lynch town, game over... hope the two mafs kill each other at night.

Did I miss anything?

[Porro]

quote:

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[/b]IF THERE'S ONE MAFIA LEFT:
lynching mafia would be great.
lynching town - that would leave 2 town, one mafia, the vig would HAVE to kill tonight.
no lynch no vig wouldn't hurt us, it would make the choice easier tomorrow.
no lynch vig - Gaspode had better be right, or it's curtains.

[b]IF THERE'S TWO MAFIA LEFT (one bugeater, one spider)
lynch mafia, 3 left, vig would HAVE to kill tonight.
lynch town, game over... hope the two mafs kill each other at night.

Did I miss anything?

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Erm, I don't know, but you confused the hell outa me :/

3t,1m > if t lynched > 2t,1m > m kill overnight, leaves 1t,1m TOWN LOSE
3t,1m > if t lynched > 2t,1m > m+vig kill overnight, leaves 1t OR 1m :/ 50/50 CHANCE
3t,1m > if m lynched > 3t TOWN WIN
So given those 3 scenarios, if a townie is lynched the vig must kill, odds then would be 2:1 in the towns favour I think.

3t,1m > if no lynched > 3t,1m > m kill overnight > 2t,1m > if lynch > 1t,1m or 2t 50/50 CHANCE
3t,1m > if no lynched > 3t,1m > m+vig kill overnight > 1t,1m OR 2t 50/50 CHANCE
Odds seem even.

2t,2m > if t lynched > 1t,2m > m kill overnight, leaves 1t,1m OR 2m TOWN LOSE
2t,2m > if t lynched > 1t,2m > m+vig kill overnight, leaves 1t OR 1m :/
Obviously in such circumstance, the vig must kill so odds are even.

2t,2m > if m lynched > 2t,1m > m kill overnight, leaves 1t,1m TOWN LOSE (asuming mafia kill vig)
2t,2m > if m lynched > 2t,1m > m+vig kill overnight, leaves 1t OR 1m :/
Again, the vig must kill, and odds are even.

If the above is correct, then we should lynch today, because if there's only 1 mafia it'll give the town a better than even chance. But even if there are 2 mafia, the town will have an even chance (as long as the vig kills).

Please check my theories...I was ok when I started, but by the time I'd finished... I've had a pint of snakebite (It can induce fuzzy logic)...but I have checked it twice.

p.s. Gaspode, you're a cheeky sod - asking me to talk more. I've posted far more than you, even taking account of the fact I've been quieter the past week (but that was a whole not-getting-on-the-GL-much thing, not just this thread).

However, I would agree that it'd be nice if Polotet contributed his thoughts at this stage. Come on Polotet, give the game some thought.

[Gaspode]

So it looks like we have to do a lynch/vig kill, because the only way to get as good or better chances is to wait until tomorrow, and that would be assuming that I'm not killed during the night.

Polotet, what do you say?

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You can't lose if you win.

[Mark J Tilford]

bump

[Werebear]

we must think differently, my eyes kept crossing reading yours.

[Porro]

[Polotet]

Sorry about that.

I agree with Porro, inasmuch as I think we should lynch someone today. I also agree with him that it shouldn't be me. However, I'm not positive it should be Werebear, though I'm leaning in that direction. I don't want to vote for anyone until I'm sure we'll have majority, though, so I'd be interested to know who, if anyone, Gaspode is leaning towards.

[Werebear]

Don't worry, I've resolved not to talk any more, since appently that makes me suspicious. I'll just lurk, then jump out and vote when needed.

[/sarcasm]