|
|
|
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
Captain Planet
Daedalian Member
|
 Posted: Tue Aug 15, 2006 5:17 am Post subject: 201 |
 |
|
| HyToFry wrote: |
Amb, I honestly don't see how we can both be telling the truth.
Town obviously has an advantage (otherwise there's no reason that I was not allowed to protect you.) For town to have an advantage in a one mafia five town game, it just doesn't make any sense. Especially not with a cop and a doc. |
Um. Doesn't "the doctor isn't allowed to protect the cop" make sense as a DISadvantage?
| Quote: |
| It only makes sense if there are more than one mafia. Since there can't be three, there must be two. Because of that "dethy-classic" comment, you top my list of suspicious... |
And this still makes no sense. Someone who is a cop in a small game says "gee, I hope this isn't a deth classic", and that is worthy of attack exactly how?
| Quote: |
| No lynch is not an option. We have to lynch scum, or hope for another night of no kill... I still look in the direction of Amb/CP--as always, going back to the dethy classic suspicion. |
Why is no lynching any less of an option than it was yesterday?
| Quote: |
People, put yourself in the following shoes:
You're a single cop in a six player game. You're guessing (openly arguing actually) that it's probably a single mafia game and a lynch is in town's best interest. Would the idea of a four cop game even cross your mind? |
I would think that the possibility would cross the mind of any cop in a six-player, openly "experimental" game.
| Quote: |
| You're one of two mafia in a six player game. You know there are exactly four other players--say... isn't that the same number of the cops needed for dethy-classic? You realize that a lynch which isn't one of your family could win you the game that night. Would the idea of the other four players being cops cross your mind? |
I am pretty fed up with this. Do you realise how ridiculous you sound? You are saying that in a game with six players, being a group of two mafia, that "Hey, there are four other players" is a logical basis for concluding that it is a dethclassic.
Do you realise the game would be over almost immediately? A dethclassic setup yields absolutely no information for the town until at least two investigations have been made. We started in Day, so that's day 3. Game over, we were outnumbered after night 1. If there were a dethclassic setup in a game this size, it would not contain two mafia. It would contain five cops (one of each sanity and one retired) and one mafia. Would a mafia in this situation still decide it was a dethclassic?
Even if Courk was not an experienced mod who would not kill off the town so thoroughly in her setup - it would be suicidal for a mafia to step out with a cop claim before anybody else even has, on the slight chance that they correctly guessed the setup.
Your argument is stupid and you are being overdramatic. The fact that you are honing in on an offhand statement and blowing it out of proportion is REALLY annoying, especially because I don't think you're evil. You wouldn't make that stuff up. But could you PLEASE consider that perhaps the most reasonable conclusion is that the game IS slightly balanced in the town's favour, and that's why you weren't allowed to protect the cop? Occam's razor and all that. I'm so fed up.
| Quote: |
| They dethy-classic fear just makes a lot more sense in the latter case. Add to this Amb/CP saving MattV's life, and then throw in they're sudden decision to role-claim and promote a no-lynch at the last second and I don't see how they *can't* be scum. |
It doesn't make more sense, and you will see exactly how we "can't be scum" when the mafia kills us tonight.
Also, it's "their", not "they're".
Here's something in bold for everyone, a la HyToFry.
The mafia is made up of one (or two, I suppose, but I still disbelieve this) of the following three players: MattV/spindrift, theopholis/raekuul, Mgm/Talzor.
I understand, Hy, that you will not believe us now. Even if our arguments convince you, you still won't back down, because you're Hy. But perhaps once we are dead you will actually listen to reason. And perhaps you will actually pay attention to the behaviour of the above three players, if it isn't too late.
Why haven't any more doctors come out to confirm your multi-doc theory? It's not as though they'd be killing themselves, with one doc claim, one cop claim, and a confirmed vanilla townie out there. Why do we have Ariel/TCM, Talzor/Mgm, and theopholis/raekuul (indirectly) having claimed vanilla townie? Where are your other docs, Hy? Is MattV/spindrift another doctor? If so, and we're evil, why did we bother saving his life? If not, who are the two mafia, and where are your doctors?
Please answer those questions for me. It is my hope that you will see the damage you have done (to yourself and to the town) and try to focus on the players who deserve it, but honestly I don't have very high expectations of that happening.
_________________
THE POWER IS YOURS! |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Mgm
Roar!
|
| Posted: Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:41 am Post subject: 202 |
|
|
| Captain Planet wrote: |
| Mgm wrote: |
| Captain Planet wrote: |
| However, I don't think that you would have protected TCM/Ariel, and I do think that whoever you protected would have been at the bottom of that list with you, and not "just slightly less scummy". |
CP, sorry for being completely clueless here, but why did you say the stuff I bolded in the quote above? I can't see how Hy's suspect list could tell you who he would have protected. And don't understand why you thought anyone protected TCM/Ariel to start with. I think that is what CzarJ was referring to in his post which you quoted in post 189. Could you elaborate or (if you did so in a post I haven't read yet) give me a post number? |
I basically did not see a reason for TCM/Ariel to have been protected by a doctor - the reason we investigated them was due to suspicious over-quietness.
I thought the suspect list could tell me who he protected. You must remember that from my perspective, I KNOW that this is not a multi-doc game. The fact is, that whoever was protected by the doctor last night must be innocent. Ariel/TCM is innocent.
I had thought that the doctor would use this exact same reasoning, and put their target from last night at the bottom of the list, next to themselves. Hy did do this, but took specific care to mention that he found TCM/Ariel only a little less suspicious than the others. This made me think that it was based only upon today's activity, and not upon any outside knowledge, and I concluded that he was not the doctor.
I certainly wasn't to know that our doctor would come up with the "multi-doc" theory and therefore not even trust the player they protected. *shrugs*
I haven't read the next few posts yet, just wanted to address that first. |
If they didn't believe you, it makes sense to go for the person they believe to be the most innocent no matter how suspicious they find them. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Captain Planet
Daedalian Member
|
| Posted: Tue Aug 15, 2006 2:19 pm Post subject: 203 |
|
|
Ummm... whuh?
"It makes sense to go for the person they believe to be the most innocent" - yes. In my opinion, TCM/Ariel did not earn that status until today. Yesterday, they seemed suspicious (in my opinion).
"it makes sense to go for the person they believe to be the most innocent no matter how suspicious they find them" - um, if they find them suspicious, then they probably don't believe them to be the "most innocent". 
That being said, what exactly are you trying to say here?
_________________
THE POWER IS YOURS! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Mgm
Roar!
|
| Posted: Tue Aug 15, 2006 4:47 pm Post subject: 204 |
|
|
What I'm trying to do is get some clarity.
You asked for Hy's suspect list well into day 2. If you wanted to use that info to extract who he would've protected, you should've asked who they suspected yesterday as things change pretty quickly in this game. Also he might find them "slightly less suspicious than everyone else", but since he's above Hy in his own suspect list, I think it's clear he pretty much distrusted everyone (very much the same state I am in now). It's better to protect a slightly less suspicious person than no one at all. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Courk
Daedalian Member
|
| Posted: Tue Aug 15, 2006 8:25 pm Post subject: 205 |
|
|
| *will be poking those who haven't posted in the last week or so* |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Captain Planet
Daedalian Member
|
| Posted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 12:46 am Post subject: 206 |
|
|
| Mgm wrote: |
What I'm trying to do is get some clarity.
You asked for Hy's suspect list well into day 2. If you wanted to use that info to extract who he would've protected, you should've asked who they suspected yesterday as things change pretty quickly in this game. Also he might find them "slightly less suspicious than everyone else", but since he's above Hy in his own suspect list, I think it's clear he pretty much distrusted everyone (very much the same state I am in now). It's better to protect a slightly less suspicious person than no one at all. |
Asking who they suspected yesterday would have made absolutely no sense. They say they are the doctor, and I believe them. It is Hy who does not believe us. AGAIN, once they had SUCCESSFULLY protected somebody in a game this size, the logical conclusion for a doctor to reach is that that person is innocent. Hy seemed to not at all be certain that this was the case with Ariel/TCM.
I thought that this was because he was not the doctor after all, and that my theory had been incorrect.
In reality, it was because he has this multi-doc theory.
Of course they were above Hy in his suspect list, and that did not bother me in the slightest. Any player, innocent or guilty, will be at the bottom of their own list...
Who Hy suspected yesterday is irrelevant. Knowing that there was a successful protection last night, it is the information about who the mafia attempted to kill which was relevant to my theory.
Let me know if you require further clarification, because some of your conclusions have bewildered me so far. (though nowhere near as much as a couple of others have so far this game)
_________________
THE POWER IS YOURS! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Amb
Amb the Hitched.
|
| Posted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 1:50 am Post subject: 207 |
|
|
| Quote: |
Asking who they suspected yesterday would have made absolutely no sense. They say they are the doctor, and I believe them. It is Hy who does not believe us. AGAIN, once they had SUCCESSFULLY protected somebody in a game this size, the logical conclusion for a doctor to reach is that that person is innocent. Hy seemed to not at all be certain that this was the case with Ariel/TCM.
|
Actually I disagree - in this game size the odds of an unusual setup must surely be higher than that of a normal game, otherwise it would be boring and dull (Save for an evil mod who makes us think its evil when its not). Anyone who was protected by a doctor overnight on a dawn with no deaths might be more likely to be innocent, but overall it wouldnt be enough to say a roleblocker, a mafia error, or other role didnt cause it. However later in a game conclusions might be drawn once the "Mafia anti-framer", "Ctorj's randomly changing-everynight-swiss-army-townie role" or "Townie Pumpkin with voteblocking night action corrupting lasers coming from its ass" are dead - some night actions might make a lot more sense. The biggest problem we face now is that a doc confessed needlessly. If the doc is lying (and is scum) then good, but it's pretty unlikely. I just get offended that the idea of multiple cops could be used as 'proof' of guilt, whereas the idea of multiple docs which is way more unlikely is bandied around in a suicidal fashion. If Hy was wrong about the multi idea, then the doc, the only doc, is screwed. And dyingbait the cop becomes.
Incidentally the no lynch theory I liked most was that the scum would have had to have targetted the doc by luck. This meant the town was more likely to have another night with no kill. I suspect this is out the window now and I will probably have to try and dig out some ideas on who to vote. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Mgm
Roar!
|
| Posted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 4:48 am Post subject: 208 |
|
|
| Captain Planet wrote: |
Of course they were above Hy in his suspect list, and that did not bother me in the slightest. Any player, innocent or guilty, will be at the bottom of their own list...
Who Hy suspected yesterday is irrelevant. Knowing that there was a successful protection last night, it is the information about who the mafia attempted to kill which was relevant to my theory. |
Yes, they would be at the bottom of their own list, but my point - TCM/Ariel being one slot above them - makes them a likely protectee, because they're the most innocent on the list apart from Hy himself.
Who he protected is highly relevant, because whoever it is, was targetted by the scum (I don't think they would not target in a game like this). |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Amb
Amb the Hitched.
|
| Posted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 4:56 am Post subject: 209 |
|
|
| Mgm, I think you just summarized what CP is actually trying to say. eg "Hy seemed to not at all be certain that this was the case with Ariel/TCM". |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Mgm
Roar!
|
| Posted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 8:21 am Post subject: 210 |
|
|
| Which in turn shows why I find his suspect list as it was yesterday more important than his current one. It would show how certain he was of what and who at the time he had to make his night choice. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
theopholis
KHAAAAA
|
| Posted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 5:55 pm Post subject: 211 |
|
|
| Mgm wrote: |
| Who he protected is highly relevant, because whoever it is, was targetted by the scum (I don't think they would not target in a game like this). |
I agree with this. The only reasons I could think of where the mafia would not target someone would be that they were not able to target on night one or that there are two mafia who are attempting to lure us into a townie lynch so they can present their kill at night and reduce us to a 2 townie/2 mafia scenario. Going with the one mafia theory, which I am still supporting, I think a successful protection last night is most likely the reason for the lack of mafia kill. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HyToFry
Drama queen
|
| Posted: Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:16 am Post subject: 212 |
|
|
Sorry guys, I've been a bit busy, but I wanted to point one thing out...
If Amb/CP is a cop, then my not being able to protect them last night (at least in my scenerio) would be that the mafia would be unable to kill them.
Now that CP mentions it though...
I *can* now see a game where Amb/CP are the cop and I can't save them, but there's only one mafia.  That's something I didn't even think of.
_________________
"History is merely a list of surprises. It can only prepare us to be surprised yet again." Hi ho. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HyToFry
Drama queen
|
| Posted: Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:18 am Post subject: 213 |
|
|
Oh, by the way.
I mentioned that because all three things I came up with as to why I could not protect Amb/CP were because of a two mafia, four townie game.
CP has found one that allows for a single mafia game.
_________________
"History is merely a list of surprises. It can only prepare us to be surprised yet again." Hi ho. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
MatthewV
Daedalian Member :_
|
| Posted: Thu Aug 17, 2006 7:55 am Post subject: 214 |
|
|
1. I think this game is a bit more complicated than one mafia and a bunch of townies.
2. I am starting to not trust amb's cop abilities more and more.
However, having Hy&co protect amb&co might still be a good idea.
I will keep my vote on no lynch- I still believe the town will gain more information from each night that passes. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
The Cheshire Man
Not a pussycat
|
| Posted: Thu Aug 17, 2006 8:05 am Post subject: 215 |
|
|
Okay, so we have a Cop, a Doc, and a Vanilla townie team already out in the open. I think it's time for a mass claim. Do I hear a roleblocker? Anyone? It's not like you'd be a better target than what's already out there.
Something you guys seem to be forgetting: we have two lynches, and then we've lost. That's it. If you have a plan that involves us lynching the mafia on our third try, that's too late.
Finally, Ariel and I have come to the conclusion that both Amb/CP and HytoFry/Xylax are telling the truth. That leaves:
4. MatthewV/spindrift
5. Mgm/Talzor
6. raekuul/theopholis
...whom I'd like to hear claims from, ASAP (I don't know how Ariel feels on this). Either claim vanilla or claim non-vanilla, I don't care. But I'd like to hear some claims, and I'm pretty sure everyone else would, too.
_________________
smile |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
theopholis
KHAAAAA
|
| Posted: Thu Aug 17, 2006 10:52 am Post subject: 216 |
|
|
| The Cheshire Man wrote: |
| Okay, so we have a Cop, a Doc, and a Vanilla townie team already out in the open. I think it's time for a mass claim. Do I hear a roleblocker? Anyone? It's not like you'd be a better target than what's already out there. |
Well, I've bee implying this all game, so I don't suppose there's any reason why I shouldn't straight out claim. The raekuul/theopholis team is vanilla townie.
| The Cheshire Man wrote: |
| Something you guys seem to be forgetting: we have two lynches, and then we've lost. That's it. If you have a plan that involves us lynching the mafia on our third try, that's too late. |
Who is forgetting this? Everyone seems to be keenly aware that even one false lynch could spell disaster for the town.
| The Cheshire Man wrote: |
| Finally, Ariel and I have come to the conclusion that both Amb/CP and HytoFry/Xylax are telling the truth. |
Lack of counter claims and any hard evidence to the contrary does seem to support this theory. Then again, the only way to get hard evidence is to lynch one of these pairs, and who wants to lynch a potential cop or doc?
Barring any revelations, I will support a no lynch for day 2. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Talzor
Daedalian Member
|
| Posted: Thu Aug 17, 2006 1:00 pm Post subject: 217 |
|
|
I guess it's no big secret that mgm and I are townies, so we might as well make it official.
It appears that setup if 1 Cop, 1 Doc, 2-3 Townies and 1-2 Scum. But which one? With one scum (AKA a SK) the town seems overpowered and with 2 mafia, the scum seems overpowered as a wrong day 1 lynch is almost game over (1/5) of the doctor saving the night victim. It seems quite possible that either the doc or cop are faulty in some way to balance it out.
Anyway, unless we get a revelation as theo said, mgm and I support a NL. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Captain Planet
Daedalian Member
|
| Posted: Thu Aug 17, 2006 8:34 pm Post subject: 218 |
|
|
I'm actually starting to second-guess the idea of no-lynch, because it's not going to buy us an additional investigation result if we are, indeed, unprotectable. However, I'm thinking I'd like to lynch today. For one thing, it means we get first shot. That is, we have three "confirmed" (One confirmed, two largely believed innocent) and three unconfirmed. It is in our best interest for HyToFry/Xylax, TCM/Ariel, and myself/Amb to be alive for longer than the other group, and if possible to hold a majority. If we lynch, even if we lynch an innocent, it still means that the 'confirmeds' have a majority at the end of the day - one will be nightkilled, but it still means there are an equal number at the start of each day. If we no-lynch, tomorrow we have three unconfirmeds and two confirmeds. If we lynch today, the worst case scenario is two unconfirmeds and two confirmeds.
Then again, I just realised that I miscalculated, and that that will put us at lynch-wrong-and-lose tomorrow. Um. OK, I've gone back to being indifferent.
* * * * * * * * * *
I decided I'd gather some highlights from the posts of our three unknowns to summarise my suspicions, or lack thereof. Sorry if I change my mind halfway through sometimes, I'm writing as I filter by individual users.
MatthewV/spindrift
| spindrift wrote: |
| Not really cause nothing has really happened. I dont feel that any of you are scum so i have to say unless something else comes up that we should probably have a no lynch. No lynchs dont help much but with a game that only has 6 players it would cripple the town to lynch a townie espically if it was a cop/doc, |
"Nothing has really happened". "I'm not suspicious of anyone." Old-school, by-the-book scumtells. Note also, for what it's worth, that he is considering the possibility of cops and docs, though this was posted early in the game and I'm not sure it means anything.
| MatthewV wrote: |
1. I think this game is a bit more complicated than one mafia and a bunch of townies.
2. I am starting to not trust amb's cop abilities more and more.
However, having Hy&co protect amb&co might still be a good idea.
I will keep my vote on no lynch- I still believe the town will gain more information from each night that passes. |
MatthewV indicates suspicion of us shortly after I posted that I was now beginning to find him suspect due to having apparently believed me with no basis in doc-powers. i.e. his behaviour changed due to my suspicion. Not good.
Also, the fact that no-lynch is growing off me is causing me to begin to look with a critical eye at the vanilla-claimers who support it, due to the fact that every day we're not lynching one of them, is a night where they can kill one more of us, increasing the amount of uncertainty.
However, there's also a quote which causes me to find them less suspicious than the other two:
| MatthewV wrote: |
1. I bet there was a kill last night that was blocked. The game did start without any sort of deadline really passing (or did I miss it?) so the likelyhood of the mafia not sending in a choice is almost nil.
2. That means their is a doctor team.
3. That also means they know one person who isn't scum (no mafia suicides!)
or Courk balanced the game by not allowing a kill on the first night. |
I really don't understand why this post brought suspicion upon MatthewV in the first place. Does it really seem like the post of someone who has a night choice? If MattV is mafia, he is either incredibly sneaky or was silly enough to try to send Courk a kill choice on the nonexistent night 0. For some reason, I think that if he'd tried to send a choice which hadn't come through, Courk would have let him know that the game started in day (but that's just speculation).
* * * * * * * * * *
Mgm/Talzor
| Mgm wrote: |
| The heat must've affected your brain. Try reading our role PM or the signup thread. |
(in response to Talzor's speculating that it is an all townies/mafia game)
This is the single post which bugs me most in this game so far. Whatever Mgm is, we don't share a role PM, so I can't say whether there was any justification behind the statement at all. However, I know that our role PM was free from extraneous detail, and that I can't imagine why a vanilla-townie role PM could have possibly mentioned a cop. The tone of this post is also unnecessarily abrupt, giving me the impression that Mgm was trying to pull his partner into line.
| Mgm wrote: |
| The Cheshire Man wrote: |
| Mgm, in post 86 wrote: |
The heat must've affected your brain. Try reading our role PM or the signup thread.
<emphasis mine> |
Would Talzor and/or Mgm care to explain this? To me it seems worthy of a Vote: Talzor/Mgm. |
It's due to a total miscommunication between us. I thought Talzor was implying pairs might not have the same role (based on our personal discussion and his use of "I'm/we're", so I pointed him to our role PM (in which we both got the same role) and the sign-up thread in which both players got the cop-role, which implies there's more than just townies, as CP's claim demonstrates. |
Here is his defence against the suspicion rightly brought upon him by this statement. This quote is not part of the argument for their being mafia, but a counter to it. Nonetheless, I thought I should put the two together. This mostly explains away what could have happened. I don't know whether it was a very quick and clever backpedalling, or whether it is sincere, but it makes sense either way. The only thing which doesn't is the use of the word "or" in the originally quoted post. If one counterpoint was addressed in the role PM, and the other in the signup thread, shouldn't he be encouraged to read both?
Here is Talzor's original post which inspired Mgm's response.
| Talzor wrote: |
| Mgm wrote: |
Well with this pace the game won't get very far.
Talzor is away (I think) right now, so I will take it on me to randomly put pressure on one of the bandwagonees to get the game moving and perhaps get some info or useful reactions to analyse. |
Sorry about that, I do still check in now and then, though it's a bit hard to find the motivation when you sleep to noon and spend most of your time in a recliner drinking cocktails. Yes, we are having the best summer weather in a decade  . Anyway, while I of course support mgm in putting pressure on a bandwagon, what, exactly, are we hoping to accomplish by pressuring people? Since we're probably 1 scum and 5 townies, the only claim we're likely to hear is "I'm/we're a townie", which doesn't really progress the game much. |
This does not sound to me as though he is at all implying that the two players in a team are given separate roles. In fact, it sounds to me as though the opposite is being implied.
Add to this the fact that Mgm's logic has seemed very... off... by his usual standards (much misinterpretation, much slanting of arguments to bring about further suspicion), and the fact that he and Talzor both appear to have put a lot of thought into viable mafia strategies, cops, docs, and so forth, and you've got Mgm/Talzor as my pick for scum. And I'm good at catching Mgm when he's scum (or at least, one of my pseudonyms is). 
* * * * * * * * * *
theopholis/raekuul
| raekuul wrote: |
| I have been absent for a while, and will be "lurking" for a couple weeks more. I have just looked at the emboldened rules, and have noticed an odd rule, namely the winning conditions one. Is he expecting us to try? If so, does this mean that the SK has an odd winning condition? |
DIE LURKERSCUM! Well, not really - it's much better having two individuals per "player", because nobody really lurks. (We should still replace spindrift and Xylax though)
But the thing here is the inbuilt assumption of "the SK". I understand that I've been doing the same, and I'm starting to question that now. But I backed up my reasoning behind believing that there was only one mafioso. This reads like an assumption, which reads as though he has additional game knowledge.
He does back it up later, though.
Hmm, and then he says later on:
| raekuul wrote: |
| Umm, Hy, I'm assuming that both your team and MattV's team are scum for the moment. Just need concrete proof either way. |
This is more important for the purposes of comparison later on, but it shows that his opinion of the number of mafia is flexible, and that he's paranoid about everyone. Quite vanilla-townie-ish.
Raekuul's posts (though they number few) strike me as a genuine, confused townie.
| theopholis wrote: |
I agree Matt's comments were a little suspicious, though I am thinking he just read our conversation of night starts vs. day starts and assumed that we were speaking of last night even though there really wasn't one.
I like Amb's graphical represenatation of the one-mafia-scum scenario. It seems like the town is likely to survive longer through a no-lynch scenario on day one unless we get lucky and lynch correctly on the first try. I am thinking the no-night-death option on night 1 is unlikely because in a game this small I don't see the benefit to the mafia to skip the night 1 murder.
I am also thinking that in a game this small it is unlikely that there will be any power roles. A cop would have so few choices that it is much more likely than usual that he will pick out the sole mafia member from the crowd. The only way that a mafia member could hope to survive until the end of game is if he were immune to investigation, which would make the cop's role useless. A doctor is more likely, but I still think that in a game this small a doctor role would tip the favor in the direction of the town a little too much. It is likely, I think, that there is just one mafia member and five vanilla townies.
What do the rest of you think? |
Theo was the first to propose this. So it was already obvious that he was either a vanilla townie or a mafioso. The posts by raekuul which I quoted above seem to imply a level of uncertainty about the actual mafia teams. These two strike me as pure town, or very cleverly played mafia.
| theopholis wrote: |
Hmm. A cop claim. I am leaning toward believing this claim because of the fact that there was no pressure on Amb/CP and, thus, it is not an attempt to avoid a lynch. If their tactic is as they claim, to go No Lynch today to avoid possible doctor death, I can support that especially because I personally don't feel 100% confident raekuul and I are voting for scum.
Unvote
I am still trying to decide if we should actually vote No Lynch or if we should just let the day play out and end up with a default no lynch once we meet the deadline. I'll leave raekuul and myself on a no vote right now.
Raekuul, I support a no lynch situation based on the role claims and proposed tactics currently on the table. If you also support a no lynch, then feel free to vote no lynch. |
The willingness in the above quote to 'believe' the cop and switch to a no-lynch is an interesting contrast to raekuul's paranoia, and is the first thing I've seen in this pair's posts which makes me a bit suspicious. He does present his reasoning for having believed us, though, so it's not a severe suspicion.
...ah, and he changes his mind shortly afterward and begins to suspect us.
* * * * * * * * * *
Looking at the individuals in this game, and knowing what I know (we are innocent, TCM/Ariel are innocent, Hy/Xylax are almost certainly innocent), my suspicions lie as follows:
1) Mgm/Talzor
2) MatthewV/spindrift
3) theopholis/raekuul
.
.
.
.
.
4) HyToFry/Xylax
5) The Cheshire Man/Ariel
6) Amb/Captain Planet
I think that lynching Mgm today will result in a dead scumbag, and most likely a victory for the town. I'd kinda like to do it while we're still alive. While MatthewV/spindrift, of the three pairs, have a post which seems more "innocent" than any of the others, I can't see anything particularly suspicious about theo/raekuul at all - hence the ranking.
Once I discuss with my partner, I think I would like to place my vote on Mgm/Talzor. If this is not supported by the town, I'd rather no-lynch than risk anyone else at this point.
Of course, if we do lynch a scumbag and the game does not end, these rankings may need to be re-evaluated. I am still largely of the mindset that there is only one mafia player-pair, and therefore have not bothered to find connections between players.
_________________
THE POWER IS YOURS! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Captain Planet
Daedalian Member
|
| Posted: Thu Aug 17, 2006 8:43 pm Post subject: 219 |
|
|
Found amb, got permission.
Unvote: No Lynch (if we were voting for it)
VOTE: Mgm/Talzor
_________________
THE POWER IS YOURS! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Amb
Amb the Hitched.
|
| Posted: Thu Aug 17, 2006 9:08 pm Post subject: 220 |
|
|
I dont like the idea of overrating TCM/Ariel, because we still don't know our sanity.
That said, I think Mgm is a good lynch, but MatthewV does stand out to me too.
WOnder if the no kill was because Raekuul was away :-p |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
CzarJ
Hot babe
|
| Posted: Thu Aug 17, 2006 11:47 pm Post subject: 221 |
|
|
| I'm back, but man, it'll take me a while to catch up on all of this. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
MatthewV
Daedalian Member :_
|
| Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2006 3:36 am Post subject: 222 |
|
|
I haven't seen my head for awhile...I guess I get to act on my own.
We are a doctor. Yes, I did send in a choice when I confirmed to Courk.
We protected amb & co last night. I did send the choice early in the night (I think) because spindrifted hasn't been around much at all.
I am 90% sure that Hy & co is also a doctor. [He could be faking the "we had to choose someone else" bit because he knew a doctor would protect a cop.] |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Amb
Amb the Hitched.
|
| Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2006 4:52 am Post subject: 223 |
|
|
Two doctors? Hmmmm....
I don't really buy that.... but still? Why are you 90% sure MatthewV? We need to be sure you don't believe Hy on account of you lying about being a doc :-p
To think I dismissed the multi doc idea earlier as ludicrous and now I have to tread as though it were true. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Amb
Amb the Hitched.
|
| Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2006 4:53 am Post subject: 224 |
|
|
Also - im now wondering if Courk is truely evil and there are no mafia :-p The only catch is that we already no lynched and that should have won the game were that the case.
Yes this post was humour. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HyToFry
Drama queen
|
| Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2006 5:51 am Post subject: 225 |
|
|
Now we have a cop and two docs claimed.
Either there is more than one mafia, or someone is lying, or, I will speculate, this may be a game made up of no mafia whatsoever. Honestly, I doubt that, but it's not out of the question.
As for MGM/Talzor, I was assuming that they were the other doctor. I based this on the same reason that CP now thinks them suspicious--Mgm hinted that they had a role. They're claim of Vanilla townie *is* very suspicious.
HERE!!!!!!! READ THIS PART!!!!!!!!!!! <-- that's for you skimmers. 
Here's a suggestion for a "no-lynch" day today. (All theories are assuming that town agrees with the plan.)
Tonight, I'll attempt to protect Amb/CP again, if I get a rejection, then I'll move to MattV/spindrift.
MattV, you protect me--I'll explain why in a sec.
Amb: Let us know who you intend to investigate tonight--and I am fine with you investigating me, but it would be better if you got a "scum" investigation tonight. If you're truly a cop, you'll have my protection tonight. If you're lying, then my instructions are moot since I'm pretty sure that mafia would never take town's advice on who to lynch.
Everyone: read over this idea, and post objections/suggestions.
When we wake up in the morning, I'll post my findings from last night IMPORTANT NOTE HERE: If I'm dead by morning, MattV was lying about being a doctor, so lynch him, and lynch him good. That's the only result we need to address right now. As long as I'm alive in the morning, we'll have enough data to make an informed decision on who to lynch based on my findings. (cool plan huh? )
After we all sign off that this will be in the best strategy for town, we can get moving on the no-lynch.
One quick thing:
MattV/spindrift. I'm pretty sure I read that right, but can I assume that Courk *did* let you protect Amb/CP?
_________________
"History is merely a list of surprises. It can only prepare us to be surprised yet again." Hi ho. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HyToFry
Drama queen
|
| Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2006 6:06 am Post subject: 226 |
|
|
Heh, Amb posted his last post after I started my reply (which apparently took me over and hour to get through.  (that plan of mine went through a lot of tweaking. At first I was posting ever scenario that could have occurred if we went through with a no lynch. Later I stripped out all but the one result I wouldn't be able to explain to keep my plan as simple and concise. It also doesn't help that I'm listening to a book on my iPod.
| Quote: |
| Also - im now wondering if Courk is truly evil and there are no mafia :-p The only catch is that we already no lynched and that should have won the game were that the case. |
I'm glad I'm not the only one who thought that might be the case. It is possible that the winning condition is to be the last two guys alive... That would basically turn the game into a GL Survivor though... hmmm.
| Amb wrote: |
| I don't really buy that.... but still? Why are you 90% sure MatthewV? We need to be sure you don't believe Hy on account of you lying about being a doc :-p |
Who's the "we" in this case? Are you coaching your mafia partner?
_________________
"History is merely a list of surprises. It can only prepare us to be surprised yet again." Hi ho. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Amb
Amb the Hitched.
|
| Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2006 6:31 am Post subject: 227 |
|
|
"Amb: Let us know who you intend to investigate tonight-"
Um that wont work. If I pick the mafia, the mafia will basically be screwed if they cant kill us. Fine. If I DONT pick mafia, then the mafia will be free to kill who I investigate, thus ruining and wasting an investigation.
As it is already you are asking for protection from a doc when in fact your role is clearly weird as it is. (ie getting re-directed). Id not be inclined toward that plan. I still think we should lynch though. A wrong lynch though, well I dont want to think about it, but we wont win without trying. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Captain Planet
Daedalian Member
|
| Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2006 6:51 am Post subject: 228 |
|
|
I'm almost thinking we proceed with lynching Mgm/Talzor.
Here's why:
If MatthewV is telling the truth, we have two docs and a cop. In this scenario I honestly can't imagine that there would be only one mafioso. And because I trust Hy/Czar/Xylax/whoever and TCM/Ariel, my conclusion would be that the mafia must necessarily be Mgm/Talzor and theopholis/raekuul.
- The logical conclusion regarding the rejection of Hy's doc choice in this scenario, then, is that the doctors are not allowed to protect the same person because of the heavy bias toward the mafia team.
If MatthewV is lying scum, Mgm/Talzor would come up as townie. Like I said, if he's telling the truth then we know exactly who our two scum are (from my standpoint, anyway), and it's near-inconceivable that there would only be a single scumbag in a two-doc-one-cop setup. Therefore, if Mgm/Talzor are innocent, MatthewV is guilty.
- The logical conclusion behind Hy's rejection here is that we are indeed unprotectable to balance the bias toward the town, with only one mafioso.
Two doctors, one cop, and one vanilla townie, though? I honestly believe that MatthewV is simply attempting to play the two power roles against one another, in the hope of ridding the town of both in a single day-night cycle. I really can't imagine that there would be two doctors and one cop, it's just strangely balanced.
But anyway, unvote Mgm. I think it'd be tactically sound (if he is innocent, the mafia is an individual MattV - if he comes up guilty the partner is most likely theopholis), but I'll have to talk with amb, and I'm ok with the no-lynch plan... mostly.
If we are protectable, and MattV and Hy are genuinely docs, it means we will live another two nights while docs are offed (if the game lasts that long). I propose that we investigate MatthewV tonight. If he is lying and Hy is telling the truth (i.e. we're unprotectable), we will die. If he is telling the truth and Hy is lying (IMO highly unlikely), we will die. But at least either way you know that it's one of the claimed doctors. And if we're alive tomorrow we will have a result upon one of those claimed doctors. MattV will not be able to risk leaving us alive in order to incriminate us, so there is no chance of throwing it back upon the claimed vanilla types.
I'm really tired, and don't know if I'm making sense.
I hope MattV is a doc (more living for us!) but I do not believe it.
_________________
THE POWER IS YOURS! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HyToFry
Drama queen
|
| Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2006 7:20 am Post subject: 229 |
|
|
| Amb wrote: |
"Amb: Let us know who you intend to investigate tonight-"
Um that wont work. If I pick the mafia, the mafia will basically be screwed if they cant kill us. Fine. If I DONT pick mafia, then the mafia will be free to kill who I investigate, thus ruining and wasting an investigation.
As it is already you are asking for protection from a doc when in fact your role is clearly weird as it is. (ie getting re-directed). Id not be inclined toward that plan. I still think we should lynch though. A wrong lynch though, well I dont want to think about it, but we wont win without trying. |
Good point. Take out the part of my plan where Amb tells us who he will be investigating tonight. Assuming that's the case, are there any other objections with my plan?
_________________
"History is merely a list of surprises. It can only prepare us to be surprised yet again." Hi ho. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HyToFry
Drama queen
|
| Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2006 8:12 am Post subject: 230 |
|
|
| CP wrote: |
| But anyway, unvote Mgm. I think it'd be tactically sound (if he is innocent, the mafia is an individual MattV - if he comes up guilty the partner is most likely theopholis), but I'll have to talk with amb, and I'm ok with the no-lynch plan... mostly. |
heh. I just went through your post and picked it apart so I could address your issues. I wish I would have read this first. What specifically don't you like about a plan which helps town make an informed lynch tomorrow with no risk of waking up to a mafia who has won?
| Quote: |
| If we are protectable, and MattV and Hy are genuinely docs, it means we will live another two nights while docs are offed (if the game lasts that long). I propose that we investigate MatthewV tonight. If he is lying and Hy is telling the truth (i.e. we're unprotectable), we will die. If he is telling the truth and Hy is lying (IMO highly unlikely), we will die. But at least either way you know that it's one of the claimed doctors. And if we're alive tomorrow we will have a result upon one of those claimed doctors. MattV will not be able to risk leaving us alive in order to incriminate us, so there is no chance of throwing it back upon the claimed vanilla types. |
I'm in agreement with this. The only problem I can see is mafia killing MattV (for obvious reasons.)[/quote]I doubt that this is the case. It's my guess that at least one of us is lying (and, as I've said twenty times, I think you two are lying.) We can prove it in one night, however.
| CP wrote: |
I'm really tired, and don't know if I'm making sense.
I hope MattV is a doc (more living for us!) but I do not believe it. |
Then why the hell were you voting MGM? That doesn't make any sense whatsoever.
_________________
"History is merely a list of surprises. It can only prepare us to be surprised yet again." Hi ho. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HyToFry
Drama queen
|
| Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2006 8:13 am Post subject: 231 |
|
|
I forgot to mention... you investigating MattV would just look scummy...
_________________
"History is merely a list of surprises. It can only prepare us to be surprised yet again." Hi ho. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Mgm
Roar!
|
| Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2006 8:55 am Post subject: 232 |
|
|
| Captain Planet wrote: |
- The logical conclusion regarding the rejection of Hy's doc choice in this scenario, then, is that the doctors are not allowed to protect the same person because of the heavy bias toward the mafia team. |
I don't see how two docs not being able to protect the same person is makes the game biased toward the mafia. I would think that in such a small game there's only one killing group, and two docs protecting one person leaves more targets for the scum to kill, whereas two docs protecting different people leaves a lot less targets and pretty much makes it biased against them.
I'm having trouble believing MatthewV, but I need some time to get my reasoning sorted and see if Talzor agrees. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Captain Planet
Daedalian Member
|
| Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2006 10:51 am Post subject: 233 |
|
|
Hy: I still like the plan, but it's definitely something I should not pursue without a partner.
And you're right about investigating MattV. I suppose he could just leave us alive and be all "yeah, you WOULD say that" when he came up guilty, if that were the case.
I think amb and I might resort to random.org for tonight's choice (from a limited list, of course).
Mgm, you're misinterpreting my post again? Well, I didn't write clearly enough, I suppose. I have been awake for a long time. I obviously meant that in a case where two docs are not able to protect the same target, this is caused by the game's being slanted toward the mafia, and is a counterbalancing measure. Meaning, of course, that it has the opposite effect to a mafia-bias.
_________________
THE POWER IS YOURS! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Mgm
Roar!
|
| Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2006 10:56 am Post subject: 234 |
|
|
| That makes more sense. Thanks for clearing it up. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
theopholis
KHAAAAA
|
| Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2006 10:57 am Post subject: 235 |
|
|
| Amb wrote: |
| Also - im now wondering if Courk is truely evil and there are no mafia :-p The only catch is that we already no lynched and that should have won the game were that the case. |
What about a game with two towns? Last town standing wins! That would sure confuse the heck out of everybody.
Also, I support Hy's plan for no lynch and doc protection without Amb/CP investigation claim. I was already leaning toward no lynch, and Hy's plan certainly seems better than no plan.
With three claimed power roles, the mafia will have a number of viable targets. If Hy's scenario plays out as I expect it would--Hy/CzarJ protects Amb/CP, Matt/spin protect Hy/CzarJ, mafia kill Matt/spin--(assuming all three pairs are being truthful), that would at least prove whether Matt/spin are a doctor. Of course, if Matt/spin are mafia they would not off themselves and would pick another target, thus not proving anything about Matt/spin but raising suspicions.
Assuming all three power role claimers are telling the truth, and that's assuming a lot, it seems unlikely that there would only be one mafia to try and weave his way through all the investigation and protection. Then again, it seems a little silly to have two mafia, one cop, two docs and only one vanilla townie. Of course if Matt/spin (or Amb/CP or Hy/CzarJ or more than one of you) is lying, that would still suggest a single mafia, I think. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Mgm
Roar!
|
| Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2006 10:58 am Post subject: 236 |
|
|
| Still, I don't think the way to solve a mafia-slanted game is to slant it towards the town. And having two docs and a cop certainly seems to favor the town. At least one of those docs/cop is lying through their teeth. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HyToFry
Drama queen
|
| Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2006 1:48 pm Post subject: 237 |
|
|
| theopholis wrote: |
| With three claimed power roles, the mafia will have a number of viable targets. If Hy's scenario plays out as I expect it would--Hy/CzarJ protects Amb/CP, Matt/spin protect Hy/CzarJ, mafia kill Matt/spin--(assuming all three pairs are being truthful), that would at least prove whether Matt/spin are a doctor. Of course, if Matt/spin are mafia they would not off themselves and would pick another target, thus not proving anything about Matt/spin but raising suspicions. |
You're missing a key element here. If I'm able to protect Amb/AP then we know that MattV/spindrift is, in fact, a doctor. If I'm unable to protect Amb/CP, then MattV was lying when he claimed cop--as his influence is not the reason I was unable to protect Amb/CP last night. If I wake in the morning, still breathing, then I can tell you what happened with that. If, however, I die in my sleep, then you'll know beyond any shadow of a doubt that MattV was lying and you can string him up.
| theopholis wrote: |
| Assuming all three power role claimers are telling the truth, and that's assuming a lot, it seems unlikely that there would only be one mafia to try and weave his way through all the investigation and protection. Then again, it seems a little silly to have two mafia, one cop, two docs and only one vanilla townie. Of course if Matt/spin (or Amb/CP or Hy/CzarJ or more than one of you) is lying, that would still suggest a single mafia, I think. |
Honestly, I'm going into this with the assumption that both are lying. Likely I'll be targeted tonight by Amb/CP and MattV/spin, and they'll try to make excuses tomorrow--eg, MattV can claim that he was rejected when he tried to protect me, something of that nature.
Don't worry about the complete reasoning of what *might* happen tonight. The only part you NEED to remember is that, if (maybe when) I come up dead in the morning, and I wasn't lying about being a doctor, you need to lynch MattV, and don't let him weasel out of it--and he *will* try. If I'm not dead, then I'll post the night results and we'll decide what to do from there.
_________________
"History is merely a list of surprises. It can only prepare us to be surprised yet again." Hi ho. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
MatthewV
Daedalian Member :_
|
| Posted: Sat Aug 19, 2006 2:30 am Post subject: 238 |
|
|
What makes you think I will protect a scumbag like you?  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HyToFry
Drama queen
|
| Posted: Sat Aug 19, 2006 3:08 am Post subject: 239 |
|
|
I don't think you'll be able to protect me... that's the uh... point. I'll be downright surprised if I live through the night.
As for the whole calling me scum point--I'll assume you were joking .
Just let us know that you're down with the plan *before* night fall.
Unvote: Amb/CP; Vote: No-Lynch.
_________________
"History is merely a list of surprises. It can only prepare us to be surprised yet again." Hi ho. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
raekuul
Lives under a bridge & tells stories.
|
| Posted: Sat Aug 19, 2006 5:03 pm Post subject: 240 |
|
|
MGM:
| Quote: |
I'm still busy with other stuff, but I just have to comment on raekuul's latest post.
I doubt the mafia chose not to send in a kill. With so few people around, it's in their best interest to kill as soon as possible.(1)
If there's one mafia (or rather serial killer), not killing would give the town the chance to eliminate him with one well-placed cop investigation or lynch.(2) Either we have more than one scum or we don't have a cop. It would be too unbalanced otherwise.
If there's 2 mafia (4 heads) killing is even better for the scum because there'd be a very narrow margin between both factions. Only one incorrect lynch after the kill would give them the game. In this case a cop would be quite useful.
Now back to my scheduled distractions. I'll be back late Saturday or Sunday. |
HyToFry:
| Quote: |
raekuul wrote:
1. Keep in mind that he suggested we were over analyzing a six person game. He couldn't make up his mind about who was over analyzing.
2. Unless the cop is a Naive cop.
3. Why a multi-doc game instead of the doc from last night, if there is one, getting lucky. Maybe the mafia sent no choice to see what would happen.
4. Your partner was so keen on a no lynch "yesterday", Hy. Also, when Amb said "lets hold off for a reaction from Matt/Spin", you agreed with him. Kerry much?
5. If you were a cop and you knew there was a doc, but you didn't know who, wouldn't you be just as hesitant about revealing someone who might be the doc?
1. I changed my mind about this earlier. My experience with six person games is strictly GL Central. I've never played a six person forum game. CJ pointed out that a forum game is always going to be more in-depth as far as analyzing goes. I later agreed; I even posted about it.
2. Pray tell... How could a cop possibly think that he was naive on the first day without so much as a night choice? There's no way Amb thought he was a naive cop on the first day, and I just can't imagine a cop thinking "this might be a dethy classic" on the first day of a six player game when no other cops had claimed. I CAN understand how a mafia family with two members might think this.
3. As I've stated, I think there are two mafia members... Amb, and probably MattV. Since no other cop came forward yesterday to rebuke Amb's claim, the game would be VERY unfair if it was four townies and two mafia. Add to this the fact that there wasn't a night kill last night, and I would be surprised if there weren't at least two docs.(3)
4. I did agree, but when MattV failed to defend himself, Amb pushed him off the chopping block with his cop-claim--and I'm pretty sure he would have done it sooner if he and CP had found time to talk about it sooner.
5. How would Amb know that there *was* a doc on day one with no night actions?(4)
Everything comes back to why Amb thought this was a dethy-classic. It only makes sense that he would think that if he was mafia in a two person family--likely with MattV/Spindrift as the other person.
raekuul wrote:
You seem quite suspicious of the fears of half a team.
It was the "dethy-classic" comment that started all of this. I just couldn't understand why Amb might think this was a dethy-classic if he honestly believed that there was only one scum running around; it didn't make any sense. I thought about it a bit, and I decided that a scum in a two person family might think that, but that's the only scenario I can imagine.
raekuul wrote:
6. Is this a cop claim? Is This A Cop Claim??
____
Hy, Yesterday was day 1. No one had night actions before "last night". You're either scum or, more likely, extremely skeptical.
No, I'm definitely not a cop. This game is not a dethy-classic, and I've never even suspected that it might be. It's Amb's "fears" that it might be a dethy-classic that have me thinking that he's scum. As I've said twenty times now: Why would a single cop in a game of six believe that there was one mafia, a townie or a doctor, and four cops? It just doesn't add up.(5) |
Amb:
| Quote: |
What is unclear about "Speculation". It was one of many things I was trying to flesh out while thinking that claiming was a bad idea
Nonetheless, Hy continues to drown the game in sheer idiocy. Raekuul is right(6), its over analysation and Hy is wasting time and effort.
Unovte; Vote HyToFry(7) |
Hy:
| Quote: |
The fact that CP mentioned it in your role-claim post says to me that it was more than speculation. What were some of the other "many" things that you speculated? Why didn't he mention any of them?
I'm guessing that you made the role-claim thinking that it might be a dethy-classic, and you'd better get your claim in first--and, hey, what better time then one of your own is on the chopping block.
Now you're downplaying it as though it was something you said in passing. You reek of scum.(8) Razz How in the world everyone else in this game isn't voting you or MattV is beyond me. |
1) What if the mafia was restricted from lynching the first night. I'm not saying that the latest non-vanilla claim was bogus, I'm just thinking that maybe (now, at least) that the mafia was restricted in some way - such as having no night one choice. We need to get lucky tonight.
2) Which theoretically unbalances the game, just as my speculation for 1 would.
3) So then why do we have a bunch of possible vanillas?
4) Did he actually type the words "I'm sure there is"? Or were you just going off of his behavior?
5) I'm starting to think that Hy's overly skeptical.
6) That's the first time I've had anyone actually agree with me.
7) Whoa, slow down buddy. We don't think for sure whether to vote for them or not.
8) I'm glad my screen name isn't (misspelled as) Reekuul.
More later... |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
